Winning Trainers 2.0 Numbers Proof that Winning Trainers 2.0 Works!
Introduction Welcome to the story of Winning Trainers 2.0, a new service based on tapping into and plundering trainer s profitable habits. These guys under their respective conditions already form part of my personal betting portfolio, and for the first time I m going to be sharing them with a few selected individuals. Let me tell you how this came about. A couple of years ago, I surveyed my readers over at www.geegeez.co.uk, and asked them, Which of the following is the MOST important factor for you in a horse racing betting system? Right on 400 people took the time to respond, and their answers didn t surprise me, as I think it s what we all look for in a betting system for horse racing - 56% (222 people) said the most important factor was long-term profits. - 23% (91 people) said they wanted a system with short losing runs. - 11% (45 voters) said that low liabilities were most important. So that was fully 90% of all the people who responded who told me that they wanted a low liability system, with short losing runs (these tend to go hand-in-hand), and they were interested most of all in long-term profits. Recently, I ve been looking through my own portfolio, as well as my betting systems incubator as I like to call it, and have shortlisted my favourite trainer angles to include in this brand new service. In the following pages, I m going to share with you some facts about the Winning Trainers 2.0 service, so sit back and absorb these numbers. You can see the full results at http://www.winningtrainers.co.uk/d2d_results.htm If you have any questions, do please send me an email at support@summumbonum.co.uk Best Regards, Matt Bisogno www.winningtrainers.co.uk
Annual Results: Profitability As I mentioned in my introduction, the one thing that stands out above all others in the minds of betting system or service users, is long-term profitability. So I made that the core focus of this collection of trainer research, and I m delighted to say that Winning Trainers 2.0 has a superb track record of success. The year on year profitability can be seen in the table below, but this barely scratches the surface. 2010 1,412 to 10 stakes 2011 2,409.50 to 10 stakes 2012 3,782.70 to 10 stakes 2013* 731.20 to 10 stakes *to end April 2013 The above figures are quoted at Industry Starting Price, and could be significantly bettered using either Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers (especially when betting each way) or Betfair SP. Indeed, here is the annual breakdown at Betfair SP, with 5% commission factored in. 2010 2,051.10 to 10 stakes 2011 3,168.50 to 10 stakes 2012 4,936.80 to 10 stakes 2013* 1,076.80 to 10 stakes *to end April 2013 The chart below shows the cumulative totals since the beginning of 2010, to SP and BSP, at 10 stakes. 12,000.00 10,000.00 8,000.00 6,000.00 4,000.00 Cum SP Cum BSP 2,000.00 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013
Remember that the most recent part of the curve, where profit seems to be flattening out, is actually only a third of a year (January to April 2013). If we were to extrapolate that out for the rest of the year a dangerous game, I admit the annual figure for 2013 would be something like 2,193.60 at SP, and 3,230.40 at Betfair SP. The really exciting thing from my perspective when looking at the annual figures is that they have actually improved year on year. This implies that the market has far from cottoned on, to this point. Now, in the interests of disclosure, I should say that I do think a couple of our trainers are enjoying wider public recognition in recent times. The fact that they re still included is testament to the value I believe remains in the odds of their runners. Of course, I ll be keeping an eye on all trainers in the portfolio, to monitor their strike rates and returns on investment. If/when the levels become unacceptable, they ll be swapped out. This is the nature of trainer patterns, and it is a transient game. But, by firstly looking more deeply into their habits; and, secondly, being clinical in removing under-performing elements, it is possible to stay ahead of the game.
Annual Results: Strike Rates and Losing Runs Losing Runs Huge headline profit figures are all very well, but it s equally important perhaps more important to understand the potential downside in an approach like this. All system or service sellers will trumpet big-priced winners, and overall profit figures. But how many will tell you the longest losing runs, strike rates, and so on? Well, I want you to be in possession of all the information possible, in order to decide if when the time comes Winning Trainers 2.0 is for you. So, let s talk losers! The longest losing run encountered since the start of 2010 was 26, between 2 nd November 2012 and 17 th November 2012. During that period, there were two 10/1 seconds, and two 16/1 thirds. These would clearly have helped each-way backers. Indeed, eight of the 26 horses in this losing spell finished second or third. More importantly, November 2012 recorded a profit at starting price of eleven points which given the longest losing run in the research period is testament to the overall profitability of the trainer set. So what about losing months? Well, February, March and April 2010 were all losers. Since then, there have been two further losing months, including February this year (- 7.10 to 10 stakes at SP), although that showed a profit at Betfair SP of 31.10. Strike Rates The win strike rate from the start of 2010 to the end of April 2013 is 20.9%, or slightly better than one winner in five. The average win odds of 5.34/1 mean that there s over a point of goodness in every runner if the strike rate continues to hold. The average Betfair win odds of 6.23/1 offers even more cushion against market correction. In a nutshell, average odds of 4/1 would be sufficient to break even with a strike rate of 20.9%, so average win odds of greater than 5/1 is very good indeed. Looking at each way betting, the 1-2-3 strike rate is 46.09%, or almost one placed horse in two. The recommended approach is to bet each way when the odds available are 5/1 or greater. Most of our trainers are almost as profitable to back each way, with the added bonus that placed horses break up losing runs nicely, and keep confidence going.
Year on Year Strike Rates / Losing Runs Let s break the strike rates and losing runs down, so we need exactly where we are with this. First, the losing runs. In 2010, the longest losing run was 23, between 10 th February and 17 th March. Whilst there were no winners in that 23 bet spell, six horses were placed, including at odds of 22/1, 16/1, 10/1 and 7/1. Betting each way as advised during that run would have resulted in a loss of just 14.5 units. Not great, but certainly not a death knell in what was the worst run of the whole year. 2011 s longest run of losers was also 23, coincidentally, right at the end of the year, between 2 nd and 21 st of December. During that difficult period, there were placed horses at 12/1 and 20/1. And last year, 2012, there was a barren run of 26, the longest in the entire three years, four months of research. I ve already written about this above, so won t repeat myself here. I strongly advise a bank of 80 points to use Winning Trainers, and that ought to be enough to comfortably cope with even the longest of losing runs. Now let s break down the strike rates. The win strike rate for 2010 was 15.45%, the lowest in the study period. That still equated to a profit at starting prices of 1,412 for 10 bets. In 2011, the strike rate improved dramatically to 22.08%, and that was worth a profit of 2,409.50 to 10 bets at SP. 2012 saw the strike rate remain extremely consistent, at 22.92%, for a 10 level stakes profit of 3,782.70. And so far this year, to end April, the strike rate is again incredibly consistent 22.73% - for a profit of 708.70 at SP so far.
Staking Plans I always think staking plans are a bit of a contrivance. After all, if a system or service cannot make a profit at level stakes, then the best staking plan in the world won t make that system or service profitable. If a staking plan must be used and I d personally suggest it isn t then a small percentage of bank might be the answer. As I suggest an 80 point bank with Winning Trainers 2.0, that would equate to a bet of 1.25% on the first horse (100% divided by 80 = 1.25) So, just for fun, let s look at the effect of a 1.25% of bank per bet approach. By the end of 2010, a 100 bank betting 1.25 on the first selection, and 1.25% of the revised bank thereafter would have been 391.71. At the end of year two, 2011, that bank would have risen to a monstrous 5,184.07. Year three s end, 2012, saw that bank grow to a scarcely believable 319,018.64. And, if you re still with me (!), by the end of April 2013, your 100 seed pot would have been a skyscraping beanstalk worth 669,423.17. REALITY CHECK: OK, it s nice to tickle the belly of fantasy from time to time. But let s get real. Firstly, it should be expected that results will be slightly less impressive than the past two years, largely because the market will start to make allowance for these trainers specialisms. That means, average winning odds might be half a point shorter than previously. As I ve already shown, there s plenty of scope to accommodate such a correction, but the cumulative numbers illustrated above would look much more sensible in that context. Secondly, it probably goes without saying that most people are either a) uncomfortable at trying to place bets of 7,000+ on 10/1 shots, or b) don t know a bookmaker who will accommodate them in such endeavours! So, yes, a staking plan may increase profits. But it may also increase heart rate, and potentially decrease your enjoyment as a consequence (unless you re a diehard adrenalin junkie of course). To reiterate, the recommended staking plan for Winning Trainers 2.0 is level stakes, from an 80 point bank.
Each Way Betting Winning Trainers 2.0 is perfectly designed for each way punters. I strongly advise the use of Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers, as that enables the double chance prospects of getting the better of either your early price of starting price. From the start of 2010 to the end of April 2013, there were 961 qualifying bets priced at 5/1 or more. They were worth an each profit of 943.65 points or, in 10 stakes parlance, 9,436.50 Here s how our ten trainers shaped up, under their respective optimal conditions: Bets EW Profit 5/1+ 99 74.3 35 74.58 62 83.62 156 73.45 50 65.62 225 301.25 14 9.94 91 48.5 81 80.62 148 131.77 961 943.65 As you ll note from the number of qualifying bets, some trainers are newer on the scene than others, and some have more runners than others. That s the mix I m keen to go to war with: proven old hands and emerging talent with which the market is still not au fait. It s a potent combination and, as you ve seen, can be used either win only, or each way. My personal preference is win only up to 9/2 and each way when 5/1 or bigger is available.
Number of Bets / Timing of Bet Placement A question I m often asked about systems or services promoted on my betting system review sites, is how many bets are there? Perfectly good question and the answer is that there have been 1560 runners in 3.33 years, which equates to 468 per year. That in turn equates to roughly 1.25 per day, or five qualifiers every four days, if that makes a bit more sense. However, all years were not made equal or at least did not offer the same amount of runners. The recent evidence is as follows: In 2012, there were 576 runners. That s 1.58 per day, on average. This year, to the end of April, there d been 220 runners, which is 1.8 per day, on average. So, we re probably looking at just under two picks a day on average. Of course, some days there will be none, and occasionally on a busy Saturday there might be six. That s how it goes, but over time, there will be roughly two per day. Another question I m frequently asked is When can I get my bets on? This is another great question, as I know different people can only get their bets on at certain times. The thing with Winning Trainers 2.0 is that, while we are interested in an adds cut off with most of our trainers (generally 20/1 or shorter), you should feel free to use early prices if necessary. This does mean that sometimes we back a horse we shouldn t have; or don t back a horse we should have. But in my experience, gained over more than a decade of using such approaches, these things even themselves out almost to the penny over a meaningful period of time. So, you can expect one to two bets a day from the main service, and you can put your bets on whenever suits you.
Summary In this short report, I ve shown you how Winning Trainers 2.0 works. I ve also shown you various ways of using it, and highlighted my preferred approach. Winning Trainers 2.0 is not a miracle cure nor is it a silver bullet. And it has its losing runs like everything else. I m just a bit more up front about this than most people. But Winning Trainers 2.0 is a great fun, low liability, profit-making, flexible betting approach, designed to be used by well, anyone really. It is offered with twelve months of daily selections in a members website area, so you ll always know what to back, and I ve a few more surprises in store just yet, too! I hope you ve enjoyed this short proof report, warts and all, and I m sure you can now see the potential of this approach, which is the cornerstone of my personal betting. Stay tuned for full details of how you can join Winning Trainers 2.0, in a day or two from now. Thanks a lot for watching / listening, and bye for now. Matt Bisogno www.winningtrainers.co.uk