The 20% Back/Lay System - PDF Free Download

The 20% Back/Lay System Written by John Duncan and brought to you by: www.profitmagnets.com Profit Magnets is a member s only web site focused on bringing quality products and information to its membership. Membership of Profit Magnets is free and from time to time paid membership is offered for special services and systems that we run. Profit Magnets was the follow-up to the Profit Place which had to be replaced following some difficulties with the original Profit Place web designers and the profit place came about after it was considered that the old Bet-U-Win website that originally established in late 2003 had run its course and so, here we are ever developing, ever evolving with many other brands under our wing. Some other systems developed by the same team that put Profit Place and Profit Magnets together include The Football Cash Generator, The Cherry Picker and The Golden Goose that were all originally available from the old Bet-U-Win site. There have been many others and a good few of them are available as free downloads now on www.profitmagnets.com Our entire aim is to develop the most profitable and sought after gambling systems available in the UK whether they are provided free of charge or at cost. If you are not a Profit Magnets member yet, you should have a serious look at the benefits of becoming a member. Feel free to email support@profitmagnets.com for more information or just go take a look at the site. So whether you consider yourself a beginner or seasoned gambler, why not join the serious profit hunters and join the Profit Magnets but, in the meantime, please enjoy our book, the 20% system. 1

The 20% Back/Lay System T hank you for buying the 20% system, this short book is designed to show you a fast and yet effective way to make simple profits from horse racing regardless of your personal expertise and knowledge of horse race gambling. It is a relatively low-risk gambling method that just about anyone with an internet connection can use once they have a betting exchange account. If you do not have a betting exchange account, then look at paragraph 5 below. What risk there is with this system will come from being over-eager and trying to make too much money from one trade. Right now, that might not mean much to you but, don t worry, it ll be as clear as the nose on your face soon. I make no apologies here for flying straight into the system itself as I find pages of pointless preamble annoying when I ve paid good money for a gambling system, if you are the same, I hope you find my jump right in and tell you all about it approach refreshing. After all, you wouldn t buy a novel and expect to read 20 pages on how you should read the novel or on why the writer wrote what he did. Time and time again though, you will see endless, boring padding, filling pages for the sake of filling pages. Padding that deals with related subjects such as how to set up a betting exchange account and how to set up a bookie account have their place but do they belong here? If you need input on such things then click the following link now (or copy it into your browser) and download my free betting exchange guide from: www.profitmagnets.com you are most welcome to avail yourself of this guide at absolutely no cost and it will give you a solid grounding on what you need to get started. If you are reading this on screen and you do need a betting exchange account, Click here. Otherwise hold on tight because here we go, straight into the system. The basic principle behind this is that every horse race has horses running in it that will drop in price during the running of the race. This is now something that we can all rely upon and bet upon thanks to the betting exchanges having what we call in-running markets. Thus, a market for a race opens in the morning (well actually, often the day before or even sooner for the really big races) and in the run up to the race the price of a horse to back or to lay will change and move up and down based on market interest. Now, in addition, this process continues in a newly reformed market once the race has gone off and the horses are out there running the race. That s the bit that most concerns us here. 2

T he system is called the 20% Back/Lay System because it reflects what my personal profit target was when I started to develop this. The target is based upon acquiring a 20% profit from backing (before the off) and then laying (in running) the same horse. There should be a profit achieved (if it has been done correctly) either because it wins or because it places but (and this is important) there should be no loss if it doesn t win or place and, depending on how you have structured your bets, perhaps a profit if it fails to win or place. Two important and quick points here: 1) The 20% figure is totally arbitrary. You could make your figure 10%, 5% or 30% in fact. Indeed, I would suggest that until you are 100% competent and you can do this without really thinking, you keep the figure very low, perhaps 5% or 10% would be ideal in the early days. This following a period of simply paper trading (watching without gambling and making notes). 2) If you are unfamiliar with the concept of laying a horse, again, I would draw your attention to the free guide discussed earlier. This will adequately cover laying horses. For a brief explanation though, to lay is to bet that it will not win, or bet that it will not place and so on. In a nutshell, you bet against the outcome. Once you know that a profit can be achieved by backing a horse at one set of odds and then laying the same horse at another (and lower) set of odds, then all you need to know is how to identify the horses that have a very good chance of dropping in price. It does you no good to pick any horse at random, pin sticking in paper so to speak, because it is quite possible that the price will immediately drift out thus causing an automatic loss. Basic and obvious you might say but identifying horses that will drop in price is easier said than done. Obviously, were it an easy thing to do, everyone would be doing it and gambling would cease to be gambling well, as far as horse racing is concerned anyway. Why, you might well ask, would anyone want to back a horse that has a good chance of winning (which is why the price would be dropping) and then lay out so as to reduce the profit? That a very good question and the answer is very simple, many horses drop in price as they challenge in a race but still fail to win the race. Interestingly, a horse doesn t even need to challenge to see its price drop/shorten in running. Just appearing to be well and comfortable in the race can be enough to shorten the price if the horse if well fancied to begin with. This system describes the what, and the how based upon my experience of trying to crack this particular nut. 3

There are many theories as to how to identify horses that will drop in price (price steaming as it is sometimes referred to). Many of these theories are rubbish and many of them are, at best, only partially accurate. I am not even going to be so bold as to say that the method I use and discuss here for identifying potential steamers is any better than partially accurate but it is consistent and that is the key. If you are correct a lot of the time, then, that is all you need to make some money. There is little that you will encounter in a horse racing system these days that could be called new. The system I will divulge here for use as a method of identifying horses likely to shorten in price during a race relies on trainer and jockey statistics. I certainly do not claim that the idea of using trainer and jockey statistics to identify betting opportunities is new. This is by no means a new thing but the way in which I use certain trainer/jockey statistics; the approach I have developed here is, I believe, rather new and, more specifically, far less risky than other systems born from the same or similar statistical sources. So how do we do it? You need access to www.sportinglife.co.uk and, specifically, the stats page http://horses.sportinglife.com/stats/. They should be direct links that you simply click on to arrive at the relevant web pages providing you are reading this on your computer screen. If they do not link for any reason, then type them out exactly in your internet browser. Take a few minutes to become familiar with these web pages before we move on. In addition to these pages, all you need is a betting exchange account with some funds in. A seriously nice advantage in using this type of system is that it is all actionable with one betting exchange account so no bets being declined or restricted by bookmakers. I recommend Betfair.com if you do not have a betting exchange account already for 2 reasons. If you Click here to open a Betfair.com account you will be able to join and obtain a free bet or cash-back deal. Also, Betfair.com are, by far, the biggest, therefore arguably the safest of the exchanges to use and everybody has heard of them. This system works by backing a horse to win or place on a betting exchange and then laying the same horse in running to achieve a profit if it wins (or places) and, perhaps, a profit even if it doesn t. The bet can be constructed and left once you are comfortable thus allowing you to move on and quickly research other races that are up-coming. The system allows you to use any UK race (flat or jump). Now there are two aspects of that previous paragraph that need a more detailed explanation. Firstly, I said back to win or place. If you back the horse to win then you are restricted to how the horse performs in relation to the markets perception of its likelihood to win the race only. The price, in running, will drop only if the horse looks like it might actually win. If you back the horse to place then the horse only needs to look like placing for the price to start to drop. 4

Remember, however, what I said earlier about the horse not necessarily having to be challenging for its price to drop. If it was reasonably well fancied to start with, it may only need to look comfortable or ok for the price to move downwards. If you are keeping your profit target relatively low then it is easier to make your money in the win market because the prices can move more dramatically but it s marginally safer to apply this method to the place market in exchange for smaller monetary profits as the place prices are much smaller and therefore the movement of prices tends to be less dramatic. Secondly, I said a profit if it wins (or places) and, perhaps, a profit even if it doesn t and I should explain this in more detail. Let us assume that I am looking for a 20% profit at the outset. If I back the horse for 100 at odds of 3 and then lay the horse for 100 at odds of 2.8, I will win 20 if it wins and I will win nothing and lose nothing if it doesn t win. If, on the other hand, I back it for 100 at odds of 3 and then lay it for 120 at odds of 2.5, I will now win 20 if it wins and 20 if it doesn t win (those of you already familiar with betting exchanges will know that there is a small commission deduction to come off of these figures, but it is being ignored for simplicity here). The difference is that to achieve the 20% profit whatever the outcome I need to hang on for lower lay odds and make my lay stake higher than my back stake. Always remember that the greater the drop required in price, in running, the greater the risk of losing becomes. Hence, lower profit target always equals lower risk and at first the lower the percentage you go for the safer you will feel. The maths on this need not be complicated. Decide upon an affordable stake and back at the odds available before the race starts (we ll call the odds 3) then simply add 20% to your stake and add this on (thus 120 in the example above). We then need to lay 120 at odds that will produce a 20 profit whatever the outcome. The easiest way to arrive at the correct numbers for this 20 profit on any result is to use the betting exchange to work it out for you. Once you are familiar with their interface you will soon see that they all have little calculus systems you can switch on to do the maths for you. Using Betfair.com, for example, you can switch on their what if system before committing to a bet and this will show you on screen what the result is before you make your lay wager (or submit the bet). To make this easier to follow for you, I will quickly show you how the Betfair.com what if function works. The first image shows that I have made a bet and because of the what if system being switched on, you can see my financial position on each horse. 5

In this next image we see how to switch on the what if function. Now watch as I ask the question, what if, I now lay for 10 at odds of 6 And the answer can be seen down the left hand side of the betting screen. 6

If you go back to the first image at the top of this page, you ll see I also have display P&L net of commission switched on to show me exact profit on winning. So let s do the sums again with a 50 starting stake: Back the horse at odds of 3 for 50 = (odds of 3 minus 1 for the stake =2) thus 50 x 2 = 100. Add 20% to your stake to arrive at the lay stake ( 50x20%= 10, add this to 50 = 60). Lay 60 at odds of 2.5. 60 x (2.5-1) 1.5 = 90 so if the horse wins you make 100 (the back return) - 90 (the lay cost) = 10. If the horse does not win you make 60 (the lay stake & return) - 50 (the back stake) = 10. When you win a lay bet you win your stake and the cost of the lay stake is the stake multiplied by the odds -1. There is a commission payment taken out of your winnings by the betting exchange and I have ignored this for simplicity. I don t want to bog you down with figures here so have a play yourself with the figures until you ve cracked it. Again, the free guide will help with this if you wish to download it. Also, Betfair.com certainly have a demo you can use to familiarise yourself with how to make these bets and I suggest you have a good look at it if you need to. How does the system work specifically? There are 10 important elements: 1. Go to http://horses.sportinglife.com/stats/ and track down the trainer/jockey combinations producing a 20% or better win ratio from their runs over at least 2 out of 3 specific periods. a) The season so far, b) the last 14-day period and c) the last 7-days. It is vital that these combos are also showing a 40% or better ratio for places. This image shows you the relevant sporting life web page (examples here from 14 th December 2008) from where this information can be gained: 7

This was the current season then, 14-day and 7-day stats table for jump racing (or at least the top part of those tables) working from left to right: Look at Dennis O Regan and J Howard Johnson; they appear near the top on every table. Thornton and King appear to have fallen off over the last 7 days, Brennan and Twiston-Davies were really hot a few weeks ago but don t even make the upper levels of 14 days right now and so on. Look for those with high place percentages and better than 20% win percentages. Again, look at O Regan and J Howard Johnson above 20% on wins and above 40% on places and you start to get the picture. 8

2. Having identified a good strong combo in a race, back them to win or back them to place on the exchange. As to which (back or place) decide by referring to a) the price (I suggest a 1.8 or better place price should be a place bet) and b) your attitude to risk (Backing the win will potentially generate bigger rewards overall because the price movements are bigger but the horse doesn t have to win if you back it to place, it may only need to come 3 rd or even 4 th ). 3. Once the race is under way, lay them in running on the exchange at 20% less than you backed them for or lay them at 10% less, 5% less and so on depending upon your risk attitude and experience. If you wish to profit regardless of outcome then back and lay accordingly. 4. Only back horses showing 12 or less to back in the win market and 4 or less to back in the place market. If you have a red hot combo like O Regan and J Howard Johnson then feel free to go higher on odds if there isn t another obvious combo in the race you can go with. The reason for this is one of risk management again. The bigger the price, the less fancied the horse in the market and the less money there will be moving around on these horses. You might want to add an additional safety rule here and only go with horses that are in the top 3, 4 or 5 in the market. 5. Use this method on UK racing only as reliable Irish stats are harder to find. 6. Only back one horse in any race. If there is more than one, back the shorter priced horse over the longer priced one provided that the strength of the combo merits this choice over the other choice. If the bigger priced horse has clearly stronger combo stats then back that one. 7. Should you want more selections and want to take slightly more risk, then you can, if you wish, drop the combo percentage on Sporting Life Stats to lower levels (say 30% place results) and so on but never back at more than 12 (win) or 4 (place). 8. Never use this system on combos who have run in less than 10 races over a season as there simply isn t enough reliable data. If they are not mentioned in the season stats at all only back them if they are showing 5 or more runs as a combo over the 14-day or 7-day stats. 9. Should you want to go for larger profits, then hold out for a lower lay price in running but remember, the lower the lay price requested, the higher the risk of losing altogether. The method here is that the lay covers you in case the combo do not perform so don t be greedy. Also, if you get the feeling that they are not going well then lay out at around the same price you backed at if you can. Even, if necessary, lay out at a higher price than you backed and take a small loss rather than a total loss. Don t make these decisions too quickly in 1 mile or more races as 9

horses can suddenly pick up in a race. Also be aware that you can lay in stages, you don t have to cover your liability altogether in 1 bet, you could do it gradually as the price drops. 10. Decide whether to go for profit regardless of result or profit only when the horse wins or places. In short, if you back for 100 at odds of 2 to place and lay at 100 at odds of 1.8 you will win (assuming your lay bet was taken in running) 20 if the horse places and 0 if it doesn t. If, however, you were to back for 100 and lay for 101 you would win 19 if it placed and 1 if it didn t. I always prefer a little return whatever the result and a bonus win when the horse does win or place. For ease at the beginning, it might be wise to simply try to get profit on a winning outcome and no losses if it doesn t win so that you are not too engrossed in the maths. That is the system. I could go on just for the look of it but then I would just be padding this out for the sake of it rather than giving you any useful information. I have, however, included some illustrations at the end (if you wish to look at them) showing you some examples based upon what to do on Betfair.com that you might find useful. These are snapshots from a typical day using this system. I should stress however, that I often go for larger profits than 20% per bet but these pictures will serve to demonstrate the operation on the betting exchange. Covered here is the selection process I go through and the resulting bets I embark upon. Whilst I personally find this very low-risk to use in the win market (and therefore predominantly use the win market) do also try it out in the place market. Try it out in both to see what you prefer. You will be surprised at how well these combos perform and how rapidly the price can fall in running sometimes. We are all different and you should start out with small stakes and small percentage targets. An absolutely essential piece of advice is this; don t expect to win every day. You will get days where you can lose a little but don t worry; it is the system over the long run that works for you. Finally, to ease yourself into this system can I suggest that you go for quick profits at first by using smaller back/lay price drops? If you were to go for 10% drops or even 5% drops at first this would help to build confidence before you start holding out for 20% or even more. Let your wallet be the judge. It is far better to win 1 on many races than 5 on few. Of course, this only after you have paper traded for a while! Winners at gambling are people who understand that they can never gamble with money that they cannot afford to lose but they are also people who understand that to win is to know how to simply gain an edge. A small winning edge over time can amount to a serious profit if you are prepared to race the whole race and not look for quick fixes. Remember you can always lay in stages and then reduce your exposure bit by bit. 10

The following pages contain some helpful illustrations of the system in action. Please bear in mind that these images were taken a little while ago. The trainer is revealed by simply resting the mouse pointer over the name of the horse (mousing over). Search the trainer/jockey stats by having the web page http://horses.sportinglife.com/stats/ open and ready on your pc. I tend to search the lists by the jockey name and then look to see if he is running for a trainer that he/she combines well with in the stats. 11

The publisher and Authors of this book disclaims any liability, loss or risk incurred as a consequence of the use or misuse, either directly or indirectly, of any information or advice presented in this book. This book was sold on the understanding that no guarantee of earnings or promise of future profitability was given either verbally or in writing. The book simply outlines a strategy that, when followed to the letter, is likely to produce, although cannot be guaranteed to produce, profits based upon the research carried out in the preparation of this work. It is an information product first and foremost. Although every effort has gone into providing the best system possible, the reader needs to understand that several factors can influence the outcome of any horse racing wagers. Such factors would include the use of a good and reliable staking plan and a sufficient bank to make the required wagers with. The author and the publisher of this work will not be held responsible for any losses incurred by any person using this system or any part of the information provided herein. Any form of betting, even on a betting exchange, is speculative and you should never bet with money that you couldn t afford to lose. This system was developed in the UK for use with UK Racing. Non-UK residents need to familiarise themselves with the applicable rules covering gambling and wagers and horse racing generally in their country and the author makes no claim that this system would work as well outside of the UK as it would within. The right of Teamtask Direct Marketing Ltd and John Duncan to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. No part of this publication may be reproduced, transmitted, transcribed, stored in a retrieval system or translated into any language without written permission of the copyright owner. Contravention of this copyright notice on any part of this publication will be met by immediate legal action for which the copyright owner is totally and adequately insured. Don t ever let gambling become a problem. If you feel you have a problem with gambling then please seek help. The following website was set up to help people understand the facts behind gambling. http://www.gambleaware.co.uk 27