Planning in a World of Change NCTR Webinar, August 25, 2011

Planning in a World of Change NCTR Webinar, August 25, 2011 Steven E. Polzin, Ph.D. Center for Urban Transportation Research University of South Florida

Outline Population Number Characteristics Locations Economy Income Technology Communication substitution Cost of travel Energy/environmental impact Societal Goals and Objectives Travel Behavior Travel Demand Transportation Supply Mode options Performance (capacity/speed, cost, safety, etc) Transportation Infrastructure & Service Costs Transportation Revenues

The World is Changing 1969 Population (millions) 203 Person miles traveled (trillion) 1.40 Vehicles/100 people 52 Gas /gallon $ 0. 35 New house $ 15,550 Income per year $ 8,550 New car $ 3,270 First Computer to Computer Message Man Walks on Moon 1977 Population (millions) 216 Person miles traveled (trillion ) 1.62 Vehicles/100 people 68 Gas /gallon $ 0. 65 New house $ 49,300 Income per year $15,000 BMW 320i $ 7,990 Wal*Mart Incorporated Alaska Pipeline Opens Apple Computer Incorporated Fiber optics deployed for telephone communications

1983 Population (millions) 234 Person miles traveled (trillions) 1.59 Vehicles/100 people 70 Gas /gallon $ 0. 79 New house $ 82,600 Income per year $ 21,070 Dodge RAM 50 Truck $ 5,665 First mobile phones introduced to public by Motorola Microsoft Word and Lotus 1-2-3 first released. Modern Minivan Introduced 1990 Population (millions) 249 Person miles traveled (trillions) 2.03 Vehicles/100 people 76 Gas /gallon $ 1.34 New house $ 123,000 Income per year $ 28,960 Isuzu Rodeo $ 12,4900 Exxon Valdez Spill Honda Accord Top Seller

1995 - FIFTH NHTS Population (millions) 262 Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.11 Vehicles/100 people 77 Gas /gallon $ 1.09 New house $ 113,150 Income per year $ 35,900 New car $ 15,500 DVD, Optical Disc Storage Media Announced. 2001 Population (millions) 281 Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.52 Vehicles/100 people 82 Gas /gallon $ 1.46 New house $ 136,150 Income per year $ 42,350 New car $ 27,958 September 11 Segway Introduced to Revolutionize Transportation? Satellite Radio Begins

2009 Population (millions) 305 Person miles traveled (trillions) 3.30 Vehicles/100 people 80 Gas /gallon $ 3.39 New house $ 238,880 Income per year $ 40,523 New car $ 28,715 The top three Internet searches in 2008: 1. Britney Spears 2. World Wrestling Entertainment 3. Obama Automakers Beg for Washington Aid Richest Nations Agree to Halve Greenhouse Gas Facebook Passes 100 Million Users

THE FUTURE Population (millions)? Person VMT (trillion )? Vehicles/100 people? Gas /Gallon? New house? Income per year? New Car? Press to Transport President Signs Transportation Reauthorization Bill LATE-TEA Apple iphone 7G ios 8 Personal Teleportation App

Fundamental Travel Trends VMT, Registered Vehicles, Gas Cost, Average Income 1000% 900% 800% 700% Average Income Registered Vehicles Gas Cost PMT Percent Growth since 1969 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% 1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

Travel Trends VMT in Millions VMT per Person 2,500,000 9,000 2,000,000 8,000 7,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 Annual VMT 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 500,000 2,000 1,000-1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008 0 1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008 PMT/VMT Travel Time per Capita 2.50 450 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50-1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008 Annual Hours per Person 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

Demographic Trends Population - Urban and Rural Population by Age Percent of Population 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Urban Rural 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008 Percent of all People 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008 Age 5-15 Age 16-25 Age 26-34 Age 35-64 Age 65 and over Household Size Households with Siblings Percent of all Households 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008 5+ Persons 4 Persons 3 Persons 2 Persons 1 Person Basketball Team Three Siblings Two Siblings Single Sibling Only Child census 20 5 16 10 24 24 26 38 15 23 0 10 20 30 40 1960 2000

Demographic Trends Number of Households (thousands) 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Three or More Vehicles Two Vehicles One Vehicle No Vehicle 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Population by Race Other African American 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008 Housing Type Population by MSA Size 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Multi- Family Units Single Family Units Note: 1990 NPTS did not collect dwelling unit information 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Less than 250,000 250,000 to 499,999 500,000 to 999,999 1 mil to 2 mil 3 mil or more 1983 1995 2001 2008 1983 1990 1995 2001 2008

Comparison of Various Florida Population Projections 32,500 30,000 Census 1990 1995 2000 27,500 2005 Population in Thousand's 25,000 22,500 20,000 2006 2011 2006 forecast was 1.12 million to high for 2010 forecasts have varied by 4.8m for 2025 17,500 2010 Census 18,801,310 1995 forecast was 2.17 million too low for 2010 15,000 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Forecast Year

Incremental Annual Change in VMT 120,000 80,000 Miles (000,000) 40,000 0-40,000 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010-80,000-120,000 YTD 2011 thru May down 1%.

Trip Rate and Length 1800 Annual Trips per Person 5+ 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 1568 1371 1054 1067 9.47 8.68 9.29 9.00 1449 1385 10.78 9.52 20 15 10 Trip Length 400 5 200 0 1977 1983 1990 Adj. 1995 2001 2008 0

NPTS and NHTS Work Trip Walking Mode Shares 6% Percent Walking to Work 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1969 5.00% 1983 4.50% 1977 4.60% 1983 4.10% 1990 3.70% 1990 4.00% Walk is 10.95% of all trips in 2008 2001 2.92% 1995 2.60% 1995 2.30% 2001 2.81% 2008 3.03% 2008 2.82% 0% 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Work Trip "Usual Mode" Work Trip Actual Mode

Census/ACS Work Trip Percent Walking Mode Share 12% 10% 10.40% Percent Walking to Work 8% 6% 4% 7.40% 5.60% 3.90% 2.90% 2009 ACS 2% 2.86% 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Vehicle Occupancies - NHTS 2.20 2.00 1.90 1.90 Work Trip All Trips Occupancy 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.40 1.80 1.30 1.30 1.70 1.59 1.64 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.67 1.13 1.00 0.80 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Carpooling Mode Share (ACS) 25% 20% 20.4% 19.7% Percent Carpooling to Work 15% 10% 5% 13.4% 12.2% 10.7% 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008

Transit Mode Share Trends 10% 9% 8% 8.90% Census/ACS Journey to Work, Usual Mode NPTS/NHTS Work Trips, Survey Day NPTS/NHTS All Trips NHTS 2001 Adjusted 7% 6.40% NHTS Work Trip, Work Trip Usual Mode Percent on Transit 6% 5% 4% 3% 3.40% 5.30% 4.60% 5.11% 3.56% 5.05% 4.70% 3.67% 5.13% 4.99% 3.68% 2% 1% 2.70% 2.70% 2.20% 1.81% 1.76% 1.56% 1.92% 0%

Transit Mode Share by Vehicle Availability 30 25 Shortage of Vehicles 2001 2008 Mode Share Percent 20 15 10 5 0 0 Cars, 1 or More Workers 0 cars, 0 Workers 2+ More Workers than Autos 1 More Worker than Autos Cars is Greater Than Workers Cars = Workers 1 Car, 1 Worker

Transit Mode Share by Income 7 Mode Share 6 5 4 3 2008 2001 1995 2 1 0 Under $15,000 $15,000-$50,000 $50,000+

Transit Market Share by Car Availability 2001 2008 1 Car, 1 Worker 11.2% 34.9% 0 Cars, 1 or More Workers 1 Car, 1 Worker 13.4% 32.5% 0 Cars, 1 or More Workers Cars = Workers 9.4% Cars is Greater than Workers 11.2% 15.4% 8.2% 9.7% 1 More Worker than Autos 0 Cars, 0 Workers 2+ More Workers than Autos Cars = Workers Cars is Greater than Workers 7.2% 14.4% 13.7% 1 More Worker than Autos 15.6% 3.3% 0 Cars, 0 Workers 2+ More Workers than Autos

Vehicle Availability 1.6 1.4 1.2 Vehicles per 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Vehicles per worker Vehicles per person 16 and older Vehicles per person Vehicles per driver 0 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Declining Zero-Vehicle Households? 25% 20% Percent 15% 10% 5% NPTS/NHTS Census ACS 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: CUTR analysis of NHTS,NPTS,U.S. Census Bureau and 2002-09 ACS

Household Vehicle Ownership Distribution HH Vehicles Household Percents National Household Vehicle Ownership Distribution, 2009 Number of Adults in HH 1 2 3 4 5+ All 0 5.79% 2.28% 0.38% 0.19% 0.05% 8.69% 1 20.40% 10.18% 1.31% 0.33% 0.06% 32.28% 2 3.66% 29.04% 2.92% 0.62% 0.08% 36.32% 3 0.74% 9.06% 3.72% 0.78% 0.09% 14.39% 4 0.21% 2.58% 1.54% 0.82% 0.13% 5.30% 5+ 0.14% 1.40% 0.82% 0.49% 0.17% 3.02% All 30.96% 54.54% 10.69% 3.23% 0.58% 100.00% 20.66% More cars than adults 54.16% Cars equals adults 16.50% Fewer cars than adults 8.69% Zero cars

Time Spent in Travel per Day 90 80 70 71.2 84.5 76.4 Minutes 60 50 40 49.2 62.8 30 20 10 0 1983 1990 adj. 1995 2001 2008

Mean Household Income Received by Each Quintile 1967 to 2008 Lowest fifth Third fifth Highest fifth Second fifth Fourth fifth $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Census, 2008 dollars

PMT by Income Quintile 18,000 16,000 14,000 Annual Per Person PMT 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 1983 1995 2009

PMT and VMT per Capita by Age 14000 12000 10000 2001 Per Capita VMT 2008 Per Capita VMT 8000 6000 4000 2000 0

Fundamental Economic and Demographic Changes Continue Home Ownership Levels at New Lows The New York Times, May 2011

Fundamental Economic and Demographic Changes Continue Americans got used to staycations during the recession, but as the economy begins to recover many are now ready to graduate to the short-stay getaway AP, May 2011 UPDATE: Gas Prices, Economy Leave Retailers With Mixed May Sales WSJ, 2011

Role of Communications Technology 30% of couples meet online, eharmony is responsible for 5% of all marriages Holiday shoppers spent 12% more on line in 2010 than 2009 85% of Americans own cell phones, 25% of households have gone cell phone only 51% of Americans 12 years of age or older have a Facebook account There was a 21% increase in online course enrollment in colleges across the country in 2010 Households with teenage children had 5.2 online purchases and 4.2 home deliveries per month according to NHTS Blockbuster and Borders fail Post Office contemplates 5 day mail delivery

Socio-Demographic Issues Aging population Saturation of female labor force participation Different young adult behaviors Slowing migration - locked in homes/less mobile Reduced immigration Income/wealth impact Changing household composition Slowing of suburbanization? System Supply Issues Future system supply and speed Energy and other costs Environment/climate concerns Evolving technology impacting travel Etc.

Outline Population Number Characteristics Locations Economy Income Technology Communication substitution Cost of travel Energy/environmental impact Societal Goals and Objectives Travel Behavior Travel Demand Transportation Supply Mode options Performance (capacity/speed, cost, safety, etc) Transportation Infrastructure & Service Costs Transportation Revenues

Disclaimer We haven t been able to predict Who will win the next election, Which movie or TV show will be popular, What will be the hot Christmas gift, or, Which stocks (if any) will do well this year. The level of understanding and the amount of data regarding transportation has never been better, yet we shouldn t apologize for uncertainty regarding predictions of the future. But we should plan for uncertainty.

Thus, Future Travel Demand is:

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Conflicting Goals? Improve Transportation Systems and Travel Support Economic Vitality Protect and Preserve the Environment and Quality of Life and Promote Energy Conservation

Transportation Impacts Everything The complexity of transportation decision making results from applying holistic thinking to transportation planning. Environment, health, safety, mobility, accessibility, equity, climate change, employment, economic competitiveness, image, land use, choice, etc. The contentiousness of transportation decision making derives from these often being partisan issues

Top National Transportation Priority Intelligent Economic Accessibility Multimodalism Coordination Mobility Sustainable Efficiency Development Livability Safety One JobsDOT Transportation??? Intermodalism 40

Key Issues Unprecedented uncertainty Behavior, demographics, economic growth, technological change, governance, etc. A disconnect between industry defined needs and political/public will An inability to discern between worthy and imprudent projects

Finding a Consensus on Transportation Funding is Challenging

Money, Money, Money According to a new study by the American Road & Transportation Builders Association, new Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards that mandate cars and light trucks average 54.5 mpg by 2025 will deprive federal highway projects of more than $65 billion in revenues. AutoBlog, August 1, 2011

Cost of Transportation Producer Price Index Value 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 PPI for Highway and Street / Non Residential Construction PPI for Highway and Street Construction PPI for Non Residential Construction (New Index - Includes Highway & Street Construction and Heavy Construction)

$5.00 US Average Price of Diesel No. 2 $4.50 $4.00 Price per Gallon ($) $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00

Florida Heavy Construction Employment and Total Unemployment Rate 90.0 14.0% Size of Workforce (000s) 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Unemployment Rate 10.0 0.0 Heavy Construction Employment Florida Total Unemployment Rate 2.0% 0.0%

5.0 Value of Residential Building Permits Issued in Florida 30,000 4.5 4.0 25,000 Monthly Value ($Billions) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 20,000 15,000 10,000 Permits Issued 1.0 0.5 0.0 Value of Residential Permits Issued Florida Residential Permits Issued 5,000 0

Cost Issues Right of way costs Costs of planning, design, engineering, project management Differential impact of costs trends by mode?

Key Issues While fundamental laws of physics, human nature, economic principles, etc., have not changed -- a lot has. Transportation is more complex and more controversial than previously. Uncertainly is unprecedented. Planning has to seek out robust solutions.

As You Plan for the Future, Remember: Some things don t go as planned.

Thank You Steven E. Polzin, Ph.D. polzin@cutr.usf.edu 813-974-9849 (w) 813-416-7517 (c) 51