Shifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook. February 1, 2011
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1 Shifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook February 1, 2011
2 Today s Objectives Endeavor to provide a broad context for today s program by briefly touching on: Some good news Some not so good news A few industry developments But most importantly, finish on time!
3 Some Good News
4 The US economy is projected to experience solid growth in % United States Change in Real GDP: (projected.) 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q E Q E Q E Q E Change in Real GDP (Percent) Source: BEA for ; WSJ for 2011 forecast (survey of 56 economists, Jan 2011); Norbridge Analysis
5 US manufacturing sector is showing signs of improvement 65 Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, ISM PMI Manufacturing Index Source: Institute for Supply Management
6 US Durable Goods Orders (% change, year-overyear) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Likewise, US durable goods orders improved significantly in Q3 & Q US Durable Goods Purchases, year-to-year percent change, 12 month rolling average Source: US Census Bureau s Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey
7 Business is modestly increasing investment 1,600 1,400 US Private Fixed Investment Nonresidential ( ) Billions of US Dollars 1,200 1, Source: BEA; Norbridge Analysis
8 Consumers are still saving despite a holiday spending spree Index of US Personal Consumption, Personal Income, and Personal Savings (1980=100) Personal Savings Personal Income Personal Consumption Source: BEA; Norbridge analysis
9 Atlantic Coast Port volumes rebounded in % 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% YTD North American East Coast Port Volumes Increase/Decrease Jan-Nov vs. Jan-Nov (Measured in TEUs) GPA VPA SCSPA PANYNJ Halifax Montreal Imports Note 1: PANYNJ is loaded only; PANYNJ data available through October Note 2: Halifax data available through September Source: Port Websites; Press Releases; Norbridge research Exports
10 ..as did most Pacific Coast ports 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% YTD North American West Coast Port Volumes Increase/Decrease Jan-Nov vs. Jan-Nov (Measured in TEUs) POLA POLA POLB POLB Oakland Oakland Seattle Seattle Tacoma Tacoma Vancouver Vancouver Note1: POLB is loaded TEUs only Note 2: Seattle is international TEUs only Note 3: Tacoma is international loaded TEUs only Source: Port Websites; Press Releases; Norbridge research Imports Exports
11 The North American Rail industry also experienced significant improvements 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Car Load Intermodal
12 Container lines have achieved dramatic financial turnarounds during Millions of US Dollars $2,400 $2,100 $1,800 $1,500 $1,200 $900 $600 $300 $0 -$300 -$600 2, Container Carrier Operating Profit 1st half 2010 & 1st Half Maersk Hyundai* APL/NOL* MOL K-Line Hanjin H H Hyundai and APL/NOL are through 3Q as the data was available Source: Various publications; Containerization International; Norbridge Analysis
13 ..despite a 14% increase in capacity. Global Container Fleet Capacity Scrapped/Added During 2010 # Vessels Millions of TEUs 6, # Vessels 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 4, ,159 Millions of TEUs Current Fleet as of Jan Scrapped During 2010 Capacity Added During 2010 Total 0 Current Fleet as of Jan Scrapped During 2010 Capacity Added During 2010 Total Source: Fairplay World Register of Ships. December 2010
14 Some Not So Good News
15 US unemployment remains high Unemployment Rate (thousands, seasonally adj.) US Unemployment Rate, % 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: US Census Bureau
16 While consumer savings has improved, consumer debt remains substantial 15 US Debt Balance and Composition Trillions of Dollars :Q1 99:Q2 99:Q3 99:Q4 00:Q1 00:Q2 00:Q3 00:Q4 01:Q1 01:Q2 01:Q3 01:Q4 02:Q1 02:Q2 02:Q3 02:Q4 03:Q1 03:Q2 03:Q3 03:Q4 04:Q1 04:Q2 04:Q3 04:Q4 05:Q1 05:Q2 05:Q3 05:Q4 06:Q1 06:Q2 06:Q3 06:Q4 07:Q1 07:Q2 07:Q3 07:Q4 08:Q1 08:Q2 08:Q3 08:Q4 09:Q1 09:Q2 09:Q3 09:Q4 10:Q1 10:Q2 10:Q3 Mortgage Home Equity Revolving Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan Other Source: BEA; Norbridge analysis
17 Foreclosures are a triple challenge: eroding household wealth, depressing housing prices & banks balance sheets 600 Number of Consumers with New Foreclosures New Foreclosures (thousands) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
18 U.S. household net worth has declined by about $10 trillion from the 2006/2007 peak US Household Net Worth Household Net Worth ($ billions) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Report
19 Driven in part by a significant erosion of homeowners equity Owner's Equity in HH Real Estate ($ billions) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Owner's Equity in Household Real Estate Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Report
20 INFLATION
21 The gross Federal debt approximates $14 trillion US Gross and Public Debt: Source: USGovernmentSpending.com; Norbridge analysis
22 Crude oil prices have increased dramatically as Asia economies recover & political volatility remains. As of Monday (1/31) it surpassed $100 $150 World Crude Oil Prices (US$/Barrel) $120 U.S. Dollars $90 $60 $30 $ Source: EIA; Norbridge analysis
23 The Dollar has declined nearly 20% against the Yuan, despite the Chinese governments currency policies 9.00 U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate Spot Exchange Rate (Yuan per Dollar) 8.50 Diff. from peak in 2005: -20% Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
24 A Few Industry Developments
25 Very large container ships: it is all about fuel savings $1,200 Estimated Delivered Cost per TEU: China Market to NATL US Port: Current Fuel Price vs. Double Current Price $1,000 U.S. Dollars $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 5,000 TEU Vessel 10,0000 TEU Vessel Current Fuel Price 5,000 TEU Vessel 10,0000 TEU Vessel Double Current Fuel Price Capital Cost Operating Cost Fuel Cost Canal Cost Port Cost Source: Norbridge analysis
26 While slow steaming lowers fuel consumption at the expense of additional travel time. Transit time (days) between last port in China and first port in the US Transit Time in Voyage Days by Ship Speed for China-PSW and China-USEC Routes 5 0 Ship Speed: China-PSW China-USEC 24 knots 20 knots 16 knots 12 knots Notes on the analysis: Shanghai is the last port of call in China Long Beach is the first US port of call for China - PSW service New York is the first US port of call for China -USEC service Source: Norbridge Analysis
27 ..slow steaming absorbs significant amounts of excess capacity. Number of Vessels Required for Weekly Service Number of Vessels Required for Weekly Service for China-PSW and China-USEC Routes China-PSW China-USEC Ship Speed: 24 knots 20 knots 16 knots 12 knots Source: Norbridge Analysis
28 .which will be important given 2011 projected deliveries of very large containerships Number of Vessels ,500-9,999 10, Vessel Size in TEUs Source: Alphaliner
29 2011 Shipping: An Outlook Container Capacity challenged Demand remains a big question mark Slow steaming & extended routes Inflation and fuel prices will likely escalate Rates and profitability will likely face significant pressures Breakbulk & Bulk Raw materials, agriculture products & project cargoes are strengths Project cargoes, driven by Asia (China) & Brazil are also positives Capacity will be fairly balanced Rates & profitability should continue to recover
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