PowerS picks $10 Volume 3 Issue 22 December 17-24, 2015 2015 BP Sports, LLC Best Bets: 62-48 (56%) #2 in country! First 12 Bowls Start on Pg 3! NFL Week 15 Best Bets Pg 7! College Bowl Issues Special Note: Please be aware that there will be no single bowl issue covering all 40 bowl games. This week s issue will only cover the bowl games played from December 19-24 (12 Bowls). The following issue (sent Dec. 23) will cover the bowl games played from December 26-30 (16 Bowls). Then the final bowl issue (sent Dec. 30) will cover the bowl games played from December 31-January 2 (12 bowls). Welcome to the first bowl edition of Powers Picks. It is certainly a fun time of year to handicap games as you can find legit value in bowl games as long as you know what to look for. Like always, we don t characterize ourselves as strictly technical or situational handicappers. However, some of the things we look for in handicapping the bowl games are motivation factors. Is one team disappointed to be playing in this bowl (example: USC in the Sun Bowl a couple years ago) or is this team really excited to be playing in the bowl. You also have to factor in the large schedule disparities in the games involving Power 5 conference teams against Group of 5 teams as many times a 6-6 SU Power 5 conference school is far superior to a 9-3/10-2 SU Group of 5 conference school. However, the Power 5 team played a much tougher schedule which skews their season stats but also gives you value this time of year. Another thing to factor in when making your bowl selections is the travel distance to the bowl site for each school. While it doesn t necessarily affect the coaches and players so much, it does influence the fans as team s playing closer to home are likely to have the added crowd edge in what is supposed to be a neutral atmosphere. Finally, you have to pay attention to the coaching situation. Not only are you dealing with interim coaches and a lot of coaching turnover, you also have to analyze how certain coaches do in bowl games. Some coaches are terrific regular season coaches but struggle in the bowl games for whatever reason (Bill Snyder of Kansas State is a good example). We hope you enjoy this edition of the Powers Picks and below are some answers to any possible questions you may have regarding this issue as it is different than the regular season editions. Bowl FAQ s Why are you not doing one single bowl issue that covers all 40 games? First, there are double the amount of bowl games as there were in the 1980 s/90 s and instead of all of them being played in one week (Christmas to New Year s Day), the bowls are spread out over the course of three weeks. Therefore, we re releasing my bowl picks in three separate issues. Those releases will only cover those particular bowl games being played that week (see above). Having later, more up-to-date information should result in more accurate results. We firmly believe you need to have later information in today s day and age! I am involved in several bowls pools (both straight up and ATS) and the picks are due later this week for all 40 bowl games. What do I do and how do I get all your picks in advance for every bowl game? Quite simply, sign up for the VIP service for $99 and you will get all the early picks for every bowl game. Keep in mind, due to late injury news, coaching news and weather forecasts, our early picks on sides and totals could be subject to change but you will at least get an idea of where we re leaning early in the process. In addition to getting our early picks, you ll also get every single star-rated play and every single lean (both side and total) for all 40 bowls. How do I play your star-rated picks in the bowl issue(s)? First, we will admit that most of the 1-star plays would not be included in a regular season issue. However, most of you will want action on every single bowl game for a variety of reasons and that is why we put a star-rated pick on every bowl game whether it is the side or the total. If you are someone that only likes to take part in a few games each week, then we would recommend you only play the 3-star and 4-star picks as they are clearly the strongest. If you are someone that likes to play 5-6 games a week, then the 2-stars are certainly worth your while. Basically a 1-star rating during these bowl issues would be a slight lean. A 2-star rating on a bowl is a strong lean while a 3-star or 4-star rating is your typical top star-rated play that you would see weekly in the regular season. Please note that the Powers Pack selections on the top right are ranked from strongest to weakest! 4H = BEST 3H = BETTER 2H = GOOD 1H = FAIR THE POWERS PACK 3H Temple (-1.5) over Toledo (Dec. 22) 3H Byu/Utah UNDER 54 (Dec. 19) 2H San Diego State (+1.5) over Cincinnati (Dec. 24) 2H Boise State (-8.5) over Northern Illinois (Dec. 23) 2H Georgia Southern/Bowling Green OVER 66 (Dec. 23) 2H South Florida (+2.5) over Western Kentucky (Dec. 21) 1H NEW MEXICO (+9) over Arizona (Dec. 19) 1H Arkansas State/Louisiana Tech OVER 67 (Dec. 19) 1H Georgia State (+3) over San Jose State (Dec. 19) 1H Western Michigan (-3) over Middle Tennessee (Dec. 24) 1H Ohio/Appalachian State OVER 54 (Dec. 19) 1H Akron/Utah State UNDER 48.5 (Dec. 22) *These are in order from strongest to weakest Head Coach vs Head Coach Bowl Records For 1st 12 Bowl Games (December 17-24) Coach SU ATS Fav Dog Rich Rodriguez, Arizona 4-5 3-6 2-5 1-3 Bob Davie, New Mexico 0-3 0-3 - 0-3 Bronco Mendenhall, BYU 6-4 6-4 3-1 3-3 Kyle Whittingham, Utah 7-1 6-2 2-1 4-1 Frank Solich, Ohio 4-7 4-7 2-3 2-4 Scott Satterfield, Appalachian State - - - - Ron Caragher, San Jose State - - - - Trent Miles, Georgia State - - - - Blake Anderson, Arkansas State 0-1 0-1 - 0-1 Skip Holtz, Louisiana Tech 3-3 4-2 1-1 3-1 Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky 1-0 0-1 0-1 - Willie Taggart, South Florida - - - - Terry Bowden, Akron 2-1 0-3 0-2 0-1 Matt Wells, Utah State 2-0 2-0 1-0 1-0 Jason Candle, Toledo* - - - - Matt Rhule, Temple - - - - Bryan Harsin, Boise State 1-0 1-0 - 1-0 Rod Carey, Northern Illinois 0-3 0-3 0-1 0-2 Dell McGee, Georgia Southern* - - - - Brian Ward, Bowling Green* - - - - Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee 1-3 1-3 0-1 1-2 PJ Fleck, Western Michigan 0-1 0-1 0-1 - Tommy Tuberville, Cincinnati 7-5 6-6 4-4 2-2 Rocky Long, San Diego State 2-7 2-7 2-4 0-3 *Denotes Interim Coach (Candle at Toledo is the new permanent head coach) 2015-16 College Bowl VIP Service: Get Every H-Rated Play & Every Lean on all 40 bowls! Also includes early forecasts, Brad s bowl confidence pool picks & daily weather, injury and line movement updates! Just $99 Call 1-440-641-1074!
CFB & NFL Schedules with Lines Wk 16 December 17-23 NFL Wk 15 Thursday, Dec 17th Line BP All Times Eastern 301 TAMPA BAY 41-1 8:25 p.m. NFL Network 302 ST. LOUIS -2 41 NFL Saturday, Dec 19th Line BP All Times Eastern 303 NY JETS -3-6 8:25 p.m. NFL Network 304 DALLAS 42 40 CFB Bowls Saturday, Dec 19th Line BP All Times Eastern 201 ARIZONA -9-7 2:00 p.m. New Mexico Bowl ESPN 202 NEW MEXICO 65 67 203 BYU 54 47 3:30 p.m. Las Vegas Bowl ABC 204 UTAH -2.5-1 205 OHIO 54 55 5:30 p.m. Camellia Bowl ESPN 206 APPALACHIAN ST -7.5-7 207 SAN JOSE STATE -3-1 7:00 p.m. Cure Bowl CBS College 208 GEORGIA STATE 56 55 209 ARKANSAS STATE 67 72 9:00 p.m. New Orleans Bowl ESPN 210 LOUISIANA TECH -2-2 NFL Sunday, December 20th Line BP All Times Eastern 305 CHICAGO 43 42 1:00 p.m. FOX 306 MINNESOTA -5.5-4 307 ATLANTA 49 48 1:00 p.m. FOX 308 JACKSONVILLE -3-6 309 HOUSTON NL 37 1:00 p.m. CBS 310 INDIANAPOLIS NL -3 311 KANSAS CITY -7.5-10 1:00 p.m. CBS 312 BALTIMORE 41.5 42 313 BUFFALO -1 43 1:00 p.m. FOX 314 WASHINGTON 44-3 315 TENNESSEE 47 45 1:00 p.m. CBS 316 NEW ENGLAND -14-15 317 ARIZONA -3.5-2 8:30 p.m. NBC 318 PHILADELPHIA 50.5 50 319 CAROLINA -5.5-1 1:00 p.m. FOX 320 NY GIANTS 48 47 321 CLEVELAND 43 43 4:05 p.m. FOX 322 SEATTLE -14.5-17 323 GREEN BAY -3-10 4:05 p.m. FOX 324 OAKLAND 46.5 50 325 MIAMI 45.5 47 4:25 p.m. CBS 326 SAN DIEGO -1.5-1 327 DENVER 44.5 43 4:25 p.m. CBS 328 PITTSBURGH -6.5-3 329 CINCINNATI -4.5-4 4:25 p.m. CBS 330 SAN FRANCISCO 40.5 36 Monday, December 21st Line BP All Times Eastern 331 DETROIT 51 53 8:30 p.m. ESPN 332 NEW ORLEANS -3-7 211 WKU -2.5 69 2:30 p.m. Miami Beach Bowl ESPN 212 SOUTH FLORIDA 65.5-2 Tuesday, December 22nd Line BP All Times Eastern 213 AKRON 48.5 46 3:30 p.m. Potato Bowl ESPN 214 UTAH STATE -6.5-6 215 TOLEDO 51 52 7:00 p.m. Boca Raton Bowl ESPN 216 TEMPLE -1.5-10 Wednesday, December 23rd Line BP All Times Eastern 217 BOISE STATE -8.5-14 4:30 p.m. Poinsettia Bowl ESPN 218 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 56 56 219 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 66 74 8:00 p.m. GoDaddy Bowl ESPN 220 BOWLING GREEN -7.5-6 Updated College Football Power Ratings for Bowl Teams Rk Team Pre 12/15 Diff 1 Alabama 92.70 96.20 3.5 2 Ohio State 98.83 92.33-6.5 3 Oklahoma 82.61 92.11 9.5 4 Clemson 84.74 91.74 7.0 5 Michigan State 90.52 91.52 1.0 6 Stanford 88.70 89.70 1.0 7 TCU 96.74 88.24-8.5 8 Oregon 90.48 87.98-2.5 9 Florida State 90.25 87.75-2.5 10 Iowa 73.87 87.37 13.5 11 Notre Dame 83.78 86.78 3.0 12 North Carolina 75.98 86.48 10.5 13 Ole Miss 85.74 85.74 0.0 14 Baylor 94.63 84.13-10.5 15 Arkansas 85.87 83.87-2.0 16 Michigan 76.78 83.78 7.0 17 Tennessee 82.58 83.58 1.0 18 LSU 86.20 83.20-3.0 19 Oklahoma State 83.17 83.17 0.0 20 Florida 76.26 82.26 6.0 21 Mississippi State 80.87 81.87 1.0 22 USC 89.85 81.85-8.0 23 Utah 81.57 81.57 0.0 24 Georgia 91.26 80.26-11.0 25 Northwestern 73.75 80.25 6.5 26 Houston 67.04 80.04 13.0 27 Washington State 70.45 79.95 9.5 28 UCLA 85.78 79.78-6.0 29 Wisconsin 84.19 79.19-5.0 30 Temple 72.67 78.17 5.5 31 Texas A&M 81.87 77.87-4.0 32 West Virginia 77.76 77.76 0.0 33 California 76.04 77.54 1.5 34 San Diego State 71.50 77.50 6.0 35 Memphis 74.98 77.48 2.5 36 BYU 76.23 77.23 1.0 37 Arizona State 84.18 77.18-7.0 38 Washington 72.65 77.15 4.5 39 Auburn 89.07 77.07-12.0 40 Bowling Green 63.93 76.93 13.0 Brad Powers #1/50 in $10,000 Nationwide Wise Guys Contest Visit playbook.com for contest rules, complete standings and how you can purchase each handicapper s weekly picks!!! Rk Name W L T % Pts 1 Brad Powers 19 9 0 68% 29 1 Stan Lisowski 19 9 0 68% 29 3 Steve Merril 18 10 0 64% 28 4 Cal Sports 17 11 0 61% 27 4 Hurricane Bill 18 9 1 67% 27 4 Stormin Norman 17 11 0 61% 27 7 Brad Diamond 16 12 0 57% 26 7 Ross Benjamin 16 11 1 59% 26 9 Big Board Sports 17 10 1 63% 25 9 Tim Nolan 16 11 1 59% 25 11 Weekly Wizard 16 10 2 62% 24 12 CFBRefStats 14 14 0 50% 23 12 Cincinnati Kid 13 14 1 48% 23 12 Fairway Jay 14 13 1 52% 23 12 Joe Nelson 15 11 2 58% 23 12 Mike Muzyka 15 12 1 56% 23 17 Doc s Sports 14 13 1 52% 22 17 JB Sports 13 14 1 48% 22 19 Ken Thomson 14 14 0 50% 21 19 Okie Sports 14 13 1 52% 21 Rk Team Pre 12/15 Diff 41 Texas Tech 72.85 76.85 4.0 42 Kansas State 80.74 76.74-4.0 43 WKU 71.43 76.43 5.0 44 Miami, Fl 73.91 75.91 2.0 45 Arizona 83.65 75.65-8.0 46 Navy 67.02 75.52 8.5 47 Pittsburgh 74.04 75.04 1.0 48 South Florida 60.79 74.79 14.0 49 Toledo 69.39 74.39 5.0 50 Virginia Tech 81.09 74.09-7.0 51 Louisville 76.58 73.58-3.0 52 Boise State 82.30 73.30-9.0 53 Nebraska 77.65 72.65-5.0 55 Minnesota 76.76 72.26-4.5 56 Indiana 69.09 72.09 3.0 57 Air Force 65.09 71.59 6.5 58 Duke 74.45 71.45-3.0 59 Southern Miss 55.43 71.43 16.0 60 NC State 76.57 71.07-5.5 63 Penn State 78.30 70.80-7.5 66 Cincinnati 73.15 70.15-3.0 68 Marshall 72.96 69.96-3.0 69 Louisiana Tech 71.85 69.85-2.0 71 Northern Illinois 70.22 68.72-1.5 72 Western Michigan 66.91 68.41 1.5 73 Arkansas State 61.74 67.74 6.0 77 Appalachian State 64.67 65.67 1.0 79 Utah State 72.26 65.26-7.0 81 New Mexico 59.13 65.13 6.0 85 Central Michigan 57.13 64.13 7.0 86 Ohio 63.83 63.83 0.0 87 Georgia Southern 64.57 63.57-1.0 88 Connecticut 53.30 63.30 10.0 89 Middle Tennessee 60.92 62.92 2.0 91 Colorado State 63.30 62.30-1.0 93 Tulsa 57.67 60.67 3.0 94 Akron 59.57 60.57 1.0 95 Nevada 59.91 58.41-1.5 97 San Jose State 57.43 56.93-0.5 99 Georgia State 45.39 54.39 9.0 Rk Name W L T % Pts 19 Victor King 15 12 1 56% 21 22 Andy Isoke 12 14 2 46% 20 22 Bob Dietz 14 14 0 50% 20 22 Rob Vinciletti 14 14 0 50% 20 22 Scott Landau 14 14 0 50% 20 22 Billy the Kid 14 13 1 52% 20 27 Brandon Shively 13 14 1 48% 19 27 Chuck Edel 12 16 0 43% 19 27 Jim Feist 12 15 1 44% 19 27 TD Tony 12 16 0 43% 19 27 Toby Scot 13 14 1 48% 19 27 Tom Stryker 13 14 1 48% 19 33 James Patrick 13 14 1 48% 18 33 Jerry Lambert 12 16 0 43% 18 33 Jorge Gonzalez 13 14 1 48% 18 33 Marc Lawrence 13 15 0 46% 18 33 Richard Witt 12 16 0 43% 18 33 Robert Ferringo 10 16 2 38% 18 33 Matty Baiungo 12 16 0 43% 18 40 Norm Hitzges 10 18 0 36% 17 2015 Newsletter Contest We are happy to provide you with the records, standings and plays used from the Power Sweep (3H, 4H & Underdog), Gold Sheet (Key Releases), Power Plays (4.5H), Sports Reporter (Best & Super Best Bets), Winning Points (Best Bets & Preferred), Playbook (3-5H s), Pointwise (Ratings 1-4) and Powers Picks (1-4H s) College NFL College/NFL Combined Newsletter W L T % Net Newsletter W L T % Net Newsletter W L T % Net Power Sweep 31 21 1 59.62% 10 Sports Reporter 18 8 2 69.23% 10 Power Sweep 46 34 1 57.50% 12 Pointwise 45 33 1 57.69% 12 Powers Picks 23 19 0 54.76% 4 Powers Picks 62 48 0 56.36% 14 Winning Points 46 34 2 57.50% 12 Power Sweep 15 13 0 53.57% 2 Winning Points 76 60 2 55.88% 16 Powers Picks 39 29 0 57.35% 10 Winning Points 30 26 0 53.57% 4 Pointwise 67 53 3 55.83% 14 Playbook 22 17 0 56.41% 5 Pointwise 22 20 2 52.38% 2 Sports Reporter 41 36 4 53.25% 5 Power Plays 27 25 1 51.92% 2 Gold Sheet 21 20 1 51.22% 1 Playbook 41 38 2 51.90% 3 Gold Sheet 25 28 1 47.17% -3 Playbook 19 21 2 47.50% -2 Gold Sheet 46 48 2 48.94% -2 Sports Reporter 23 28 2 45.10% -5 Power Plays 5 9 0 35.71% -4 Power Plays 32 34 1 48.48% -2 Combined 258 215 8 54.55% 43 Combined 153 136 7 52.94% 17 Combined 411 351 15 53.94% 60 2
Arizona (SU: 6-6, ATS: 5-6-1, O/U: 10-2) 9/3 UTSA L -31.5 42-32 o58.5 9/12 at Nevada W -10.5 44-20 o63 9/19 N Arizona W -34.5 77-13 o62 9/26 UCLA L +2.5 30-56 o65.5 10/3 at Stanford L +11 17-55 o60.5 10/10 Oregon State W -9.5 44-7 u65 10/17 at Colorado P -7 38-31 o68.5 10/24 Washington St L -7 42-45 o73 10/31 at Washington L +4.5 3-49 u56.5 11/7 at USC W +19.5 30-38 o67 11/14 Utah W +6 37-30 o61.5 11/21 at Arizona St L +6 37-52 o67.5 New Mexico (SU: 7-5, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 4-7-1) 9/5 Miss Valley St W -42.5 66-0 o59.5 9/12 Tulsa L -5 21-40 u73 9/18 at Arizona St W +26 10-34 u64.5 9/26 at Wyoming W -3.5 38-28 o58.5 10/3 New Mex St L -12.5 38-29 p67 10/10 at Nevada L +4.5 17-35 u53.5 10/17 Hawaiʻi L -5 28-27 o50.5 10/24 at San Jose St L +7.5 21-31 u56.5 11/7 Utah State W +16 14-13 u58 11/14 at Boise State W +30.5 31-24 u57.5 11/21 Colorado St L +3 21-28 u57 11/28 Air Force W +10.5 47-35 o53.5 BYU (SU: 9-3, ATS: 8-4, O/U: 6-6) 9/5 at Nebraska W +5.5 33-28 o58 9/12 Boise State W +2.5 35-24 o56.5 9/19 at UCLA W +16.5 23-24 u59.5 9/26 at Michigan L +6.5 0-31 u46 10/2 Connecticut W -16 30-13 u44 10/10 East Carolina L -9.5 45-38 o59 10/16 Cincinnati W -5.5 38-24 u68 10/24 Wagner W -51 70-6 o60.5 11/6 at San Jose St L -12.5 17-16 u55.5 11/14 vs. Missouri L -5 16-20 u41 11/21 Fresno State W -26.5 52-10 o57 11/28 at Utah State W -3 51-28 o55 Utah (SU: 9-3, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 5-6-1) 9/3 Michigan W -5.5 24-17 u45.5 9/11 Utah State L -12 24-14 u45.5 9/19 at Fresno St W -14 45-24 o52.5 9/26 at Oregon W +11 62-20 o64.5 10/10 California L -7.5 30-24 u61 10/17 Arizona State W -5.5 34-18 p52 10/24 at USC L +6 24-42 o58 10/31 Oregon State L -26.5 27-12 u53 11/7 at Washington W +2 34-23 o44 11/14 at Arizona L -6 30-37 o61.5 11/21 UCLA L -1 9-17 u56 11/28 Colorado L -16.5 20-14 u48.5 Gildan New Mexico Bowl Arizona at New Mexico December 19th 2:00PM ESPN Albuquerque, NM 2015 Season Stats Zona NM Offensive PPG 36.8 29.3 Defensive PPG 35.7 27.0 Rushing Off YPG 226.0 246.6 Rushing Off YPC 5.5 5.2 Passing Off YPG 268.2 131.6 Off Comp % 58.8 51.9 TD/Int Ratio 25/9 5/11 Total Offense 494.2 378.2 Rushing Def YPG 188.5 194.2 Rushing Def YPC 4.4 4.5 Passing Def YPG 274.8 237.9 Def Comp % 63.2 58.4 TD/Int Ratio 27/8 21/13 Total Defense 463.3 432.2 YPG Difference +30.9-54.0 Kick Returns 21.9 22.9 Punt Returns 16.0 5.5 Kick Return Def 21.1 21.2 Punt Return Def 3.5 3.6 Net Punt 39.9 39.9 FG's 17/20 7/14 Sacks vs 30 11 Sacks by 25 29 TO Margin -5 +5 3 Zona NM Quarterback 444 - Running Back 4 - Receivers 444 - Offensive Line 4 - Defensive Line - - Linebackers - 4 Defensive Backs - 1/2 Special Teams 44 - Coaching 4 - Turf/Crowd - 444 Matchups 4 - Intangibles - 44 Schedule 44 - ARIZONA BY 7.5 4 s NEW MEXICO BOWL : New Mexico became the first team in modern college football history to pull off 3 outright upsets as a double-digit underdog in one month. Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl BYU vs Utah December 19th 3:30PM ABC Las Vegas, NV 2015 Season Stats BYU Utah Offensive PPG 34.2 30.2 Defensive PPG 21.8 21.8 Rushing Off YPG 133.1 187.8 Rushing Off YPC 4.1 4.3 Passing Off YPG 294.9 189.1 Off Comp % 61.8 64.0 TD/Int Ratio 24/9 15/11 Total Offense 428.0 376.8 Rushing Def YPG 145.3 111.8 Rushing Def YPC 3.8 3.3 Passing Def YPG 212.8 253.4 Def Comp % 55.5 55.2 TD/Int Ratio 12/15 20/19 Total Defense 358.1 365.2 YPG Difference +69.9 +11.6 Kick Returns 21.2 21.9 Punt Returns 8.9 10.8 Kick Return Def 20.9 20.6 Punt Return Def 12.4 7.3 Net Punt 37.0 43.7 FG's 14/16 23/27 Sacks vs 29 20 Sacks by 37 33 TO Margin +7 +8 BYU Utah Quarterback 4 - Running Back 4 - Receivers 4 - Offensive Line - 4 Defensive Line - 4 Defensive Backs - - Special Teams - 4 Coaching - 1/2 Turf/Crowd - 1/2 Matchups - - Intangibles 44 - Bowl History - 4 UTAH BY 1 4 s LAS VEGAS BOWL Since 2001, Utah is arguably the best bowl team in the country as they are 10-1 SU/9-2 ATS with an average cover of 13 ppg! Arizona 37 NEW MEXICO 30. While these two have played each other 66 times, they haven t met since 2008. Neither head coach has a strong bowl resume as Rodriguez is just 4-5 SU/2-7 ATS in bowls in his career. On the other side, Davie s bowl futility goes back to his days as a DC at Texas A&M as he is just 0-8 SU/2-6 ATS in bowl games since 1991 either as a head coach or DC. While Arizona is clearly the superior team and has played the tougher schedule, we question their motivation in this one as this has clearly been a disappointing season for them and they are banged up. However, note that they should be welcoming back QB Solomon and LB Wright here who missed extensive time this season. On the other side, NM is making their first bowl trip since 2007 and is very excited that it is being played on its home field. We rode this NM gravy train for much of the second half of the season cashing 3 star-rated plays on these pages (all of them outright upset wins as double-digit underdogs). While we definitely lean with NM in this one, we are concerned that against the two common opponents (Arizona St & Nevada), NM was -199 ypg while Zona was +64 ypg. RATING: 1H NEW MEXICO (+9) over Arizona Utah 24 Byu 23. The Holy War resumes here as last year was the first time they didn t play each other since 1921. Utah has won each of the last 3 meetings with all of them being outright upsets as the underdog has covered 5 in a row in the series. This matchup does feature two of the better bowl coaches as BYU s Mendenhall is 6-4 SU/ATS while Whittingham is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS. Whittingham has gotten the upper hand going 6-3 SU/7-2 ATS against Mendenhall and this will be the final game for the BYU head coach who took the Virginia job. While BYU has the clear edge on offense, Utah holds the slight edge on defense and special teams while also getting the nod at coaching, schedule and bowl history. As for us, we ll pass on the side as we look for this one to go down to the wire. We ve had a solid feel for both of these teams totals wise this year including cashing a pair of star-rated picks in the final two weeks of the season highlighted by a 3H Colorado/Utah UNDER winner. The Utes quite simply have no offense without RB Booker as their last two games have averaged just 30 total ppg. 4 of the last 5 meetings have gone UNDER the total with an average of just 44.8 ppg. RATING: 3H BYU/Utah UNDER 54 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl Ohio vs Appalachian State December 19th 5:30PM ESPN Montgomery, AL Ohio (SU: 8-4, ATS: 8-4, O/U: 7-5) 9/3 at Idaho W -7 45-28 o58 9/12 Marshall W +3 21-10 u60.5 9/19 SE Louisiana W -14.5 35-14 o48 9/26 at Minnesota W +9.5 24-27 o47 10/3 at Akron L -2.5 14-12 u44.5 10/10 Miami (OH) W -15.5 34-3 u50.5 10/17 W Michigan L -3.5 14-49 o53 10/24 at Buffalo L -2.5 17-41 o53.5 11/4 at BG L +20.5 24-62 o67 11/10 Kent State W -6.5 27-0 u44 11/17 Ball State W -9.5 48-31 o55.5 11/24 at N Illinois W +13 26-21 u58 Appalachian St (SU: 10-2, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 5-7) 9/5 Howard W -37.5 49-0 u61 9/12 at Clemson L +19 10-41 u58 9/26 at ODU W -7.5 49-0 u54.5 10/3 Wyoming L -25 31-13 u52.5 10/10 at Georgia St W -14.5 37-3 u62 10/17 at UL Monroe W -13.5 59-14 o49 10/22 Ga Southern W -6.5 31-13 u61 10/31 Troy L -23.5 44-41 o54.5 11/5 Arkansas St L -11.5 27-40 o56 11/14 at Idaho W -19 47-20 o66 11/28 UL Lafayette L -23 28-7 u59.5 12/5 at S Alabama L -18.5 34-27 o58.5 2015 Season Stats Ohio ASU Offensive PPG 27.4 37.2 Defensive PPG 24.8 18.2 Rushing Off YPG 187.1 268.8 Rushing Off YPC 4.4 5.8 Passing Off YPG 238.4 201.8 Off Comp % 60.1 61.6 TD/Int Ratio 18/11 31/8 Total Offense 425.5 470.7 Rushing Def YPG 157.0 133.6 Rushing Def YPC 4.8 3.5 Passing Def YPG 216.6 184.4 Def Comp % 59.8 60.3 TD/Int Ratio 15/11 10/16 Total Defense 373.6 318.0 YPG Difference +51.9 +152.7 Kick Returns 20.3 21.4 Punt Returns 6.6 4.9 Kick Return Def 19.0 23.5 Punt Return Def 2.9 6.2 Net Punt 36.7 38.7 FG's 14/20 13/14 Sacks vs 26 9 Sacks by 21 34 TO Margin +5 +2 Ohio ASU Quarterback - 44 Running Back - 44 Receivers 1/2 - Offensive Line - 44 Defensive Line - 4 Linebackers - 1/2 Defensive Backs - 4 Special Teams 4 - Coaching 44 - Turf/Crowd - 4 Matchups - 44 Intangibles 4 - Schedule - - Bowl History 4 - APP STATE BY 6 4 s CAMELLIA BOWL Over the last 3 seasons, MAC schools are a combined 4-13 SU/5-12 ATS in bowl games. Appalachian State 31 Ohio 24. This will be a game of firsts as it is the first all-time meeting between the two and first ever bowl game for the Appalachian State program and its head coach Satterfield. They have already sold out their allotment of tickets so their fan base is really fired up. Meanwhile, Ohio has been there and done that as their head coach Solich is 4-7 SU/ATS in his career in bowl games including 2-4 SU/ATS here. Looking over the stats, Appalachian State is by far the superior team as they are +153 ypg on the season while Ohio is only +52 ypg. However, note that Ohio was very banged up for most of the season but somehow found a way to win and cover each of their last 3 games. Meanwhile, Appalachian State failed to cover 4 of their last 5 games. After originally wanting to back the Bobcats here, this line has dropped a couple of points in the last week. Therefore, we ll side with the OVER. After starting off the season with 5 straight UNDERS, 5 of Appalachian State s last 7 games went OVER the total while averaging 62 total ppg. Meanwhile, 4 of Ohio s last 6 games went OVER the total with their games averaging 60 total ppg. RATING: 1H Ohio/Appalachian St OVER 54
Auto Nation Cure Bowl San Jose State vs Georgia State December 19th 7:00PM CBS College Orlando, FL San Jose State (SU: 5-7, ATS: 7-5, O/U: 7-4-1) 9/3 New Hamp W -3 43-13 o53 9/12 at Air Force L +6 16-37 u58.5 9/19 at Oregon St L +7 21-35 o49.5 9/26 Fresno State W -4.5 49-23 o55 10/3 at Auburn W +21 21-35 p56 10/10 at UNLV W -3 33-27 o50.5 10/17 San Diego St L -2.5 7-30 u48 10/24 New Mexico W -7.5 31-21 u56.5 11/6 BYU W +12.5 16-17 u55.5 11/14 at Nevada L +1.5 34-37 o52.5 11/21 at Hawaiʻi W -10.5 42-23 o52.5 11/27 Boise State L +7.5 23-40 o58 Georgia State (SU: 6-6, ATS: 8-3-1, O/U: 4-8) 9/4 Charlotte L -7 20-23 u70 9/12 at N Mex St W +6 34-32 o65 9/19 at Oregon W +43.5 28-61 o72 10/3 Liberty L +2.5 33-41 o60.5 10/10 App St L +14.5 3-37 u62 10/17 at Ball State W +13 31-19 u65 10/31 at Arkansas St W +17 34-48 o57.5 11/7 UL Lafayette P +2 21-23 u61 11/14 at Texas State W +2.5 41-19 u65 11/21 S Alabama W -3 24-10 u61 11/27 Troy W -1 31-21 u57 12/5 at Ga So W +20.5 34-7 u58 Arkansas State (SU: 9-3, ATS: 8-4, O/U: 9-3) 9/5 at USC L +27.5 6-55 u67 9/12 Missouri W +10 20-27 u56.5 9/19 Missouri State W -20.5 70-7 o61 9/26 at Toledo L +7 7-37 u58 10/3 Idaho L -22 49-35 o60 10/13 at S Alabama W -3.5 49-31 o58 10/20 UL Lafayette W -7.5 37-27 o57.5 10/31 Georgia State L -17 48-34 o57.5 11/5 at App State W +11.5 40-27 o56 11/14 at ULM W -14.5 59-21 o56.5 11/28 at N Mex St W -18 52-28 o71.5 12/5 Texas State W -25 55-17 o69.5 Louisiana Tech (SU: 8-4, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 7-5) 9/5 Southern W -40.5 62-15 o63 9/10 at WKU L -2 38-41 o62 9/19 at Kansas St W +10 33-39 o52 9/26 FIU L -14 27-17 u55.5 10/3 UL Lafayette W -16.5 43-14 u60 10/10 at UTSA L -12 34-31 o55.5 10/17 at Miss State L +13 20-45 o60 10/24 Middle Tenn W -7.5 45-16 u64 10/30 at Rice W -11.5 42-17 u62 11/7 North Texas W -29.5 56-13 o62.5 11/21 at UTEP L -24.5 17-15 u54 11/28 So Miss L -5 24-58 o62.5 2015 Season Stats SJSt GSt Offensive PPG 28.0 27.8 Defensive PPG 28.2 28.4 Rushing Off YPG 181.8 103.1 Rushing Off YPC 4.6 3.2 Passing Off YPG 232.8 346.6 Off Comp % 68.2 62.9 TD/Int Ratio 20/11 26/11 Total Offense 414.5 449.7 Rushing Def YPG 215.6 179.8 Rushing Def YPC 5.2 4.4 Passing Def YPG 153.6 235.8 Def Comp % 55.5 59.2 TD/Int Ratio 14/8 18/14 Total Defense 369.2 415.6 YPG Difference +45.3 +34.1 Kick Returns 23.0 22.7 Punt Returns 2.8 5.3 Kick Return Def 26.3 27.1 Punt Return Def 9.0 10.9 Net Punt 41.9 37.5 FG's 9/17 12/19 Sacks vs 36 29 Sacks by 13 16 TO Margin -5-1 4 SJSt GSt Quarterback - 44 Running Back 44 - Receivers - 4 Offensive Line 4 - Defensive Line - - Defensive Backs 4 - Special Teams 4 - Turf/Crowd - 4 Matchups - - Intangibles - 4 Schedule 44 - SAN JOSE ST BY 2 4 s CURE BOWL : While this is their first ever bowl game, Georgia State is 15-3 ATS at the FBS level and 6-0 ATS this year as an underdog away from home. New Orleans Bowl Arkansas St vs Louisiana Tech December 19th 9:00PM ESPN New Orleans, LA 2015 Season Stats ASt LT Offensive PPG 41.0 36.8 Defensive PPG 28.8 26.8 Rushing Off YPG 236.7 153.8 Rushing Off YPC 5.0 4.7 Passing Off YPG 212.2 311.9 Off Comp % 57.1 61.4 TD/Int Ratio 23/13 25/11 Total Offense 448.9 465.8 Rushing Def YPG 146.7 114.8 Rushing Def YPC 4.2 3.4 Passing Def YPG 251.9 265.8 Def Comp % 52.7 60.2 TD/Int Ratio 23/26 24/11 Total Defense 398.6 380.6 YPG Difference +50.3 +85.2 Kick Returns 24.6 20.6 Punt Returns 11.0 10.1 Kick Return Def 18.8 23.7 Punt Return Def 5.6 10.4 Net Punt 40.4 35.9 FG s 11/15 18/22 Sacks vs 24 19 Sacks by 30 23 TO Margin +11-2 ASt LT Quarterback - 1/2 Running Back 1/2 - Receivers - 4 Offensive Line 1/2 - Defensive Line - 4 Defensive Backs 44 - Special Teams 4 - Coaching - 4 Turf/Crowd - - Matchups - 1/2 LA TECH by 1 4 s NEW ORLEANS BOWL Sun Belt teams have won and covered each of the last 5 New Orleans bowls by an average of 11 ppg with an average cover of 10 ppg. San Jose State 28 Georgia State 27. Similar to the Camellia Bowl, this will also be a bowl of several firsts. It s the first ever Cure Bowl, the first ever meeting between these two teams and the first bowl appearance ever for a young Georgia State program. It s also the first bowl opportunities for either head coach. On one side, you have San Jose State as one of the 3 teams who earned a bowl bid (thanks to high APR scores) despite having a 5-7 record. They do have a stud at RB in Tyler Ervin who ran for 1,469 yards this season. Meanwhile, Georgia State earned their bowl bid the old fashion way via winning and covering each of their last 4 games all by double-digits to get to 6-6. Their last game was arguably the biggest win in school history beating in-state rival Georgia Southern 34-7 as they were a 3 TD dog (cashed a star-rated pick on these pages). Keep in mind, they came in to this season never defeating an FBS foe in their school history. While we don t see a tremendous amount of value in this one, we will back Georgia St as their ATS performances away from home in the underdog role are among the best in the country (see key ATS stat on left). RATING: 1H Georgia St (+3) over San Jose St Louisiana Tech 37 Arkansas State 35. Two former long-time rivals who haven t met since 1998. This will be the second bowl for Arkansas St under head coach Anderson as they lost to Toledo 63-44 last year. On the other side, Holtz is 3-3 SU/4-2 ATS alltime in bowl games including an impressive 35-18 win over Illinois while coaching here last year. The Red Wolves enter this match-up winners of 8 straight games as they went unbeaten in Sun Belt play this year after starting the season 1-3 in non-conference action (albeit losses to USC, Missouri and Toledo aren t necessarily bad). On the other side, Louisiana Tech comes in off arguably their two worst performances of the season as they nearly lost outright as a 24.5-point favorite at UTEP and then with the CUSA West division on the line, they lost at home to Southern Miss 58-24 (had 7 TO s). These two teams are pretty close talent wise (see checklist) so instead of backing a side here, we ll go with the obvious OVER. You don t have to worry about the weather here (played in Super Dome). Arkansas State games finished the year on a 8-game OVER streak as their games averaged 76 total ppg in that stretch. RATING: 1H Arkansas St/La Tech OVER 67 Miami Beach Bowl Western Kentucky vs South Florida December 21st 2:30PM ESPN Miami, FL W Kentucky (SU: 11-2, ATS: 7-4-1, O/U: 8-4) 9/5 at Vanderbilt P -2 14-12 u62 9/10 Louisiana Tech W +2 41-38 o62 9/19 at Indiana L +2 35-38 o72.5 9/26 Miami (OH) W -20.5 56-14 o67 10/3 at Rice W -7 49-10 u71 10/10 Middle Tenn W -7.5 58-28 o70 10/15 at North Texas L -34 55-28 o71.5 10/24 at LSU L +15.5 20-48 o65.5 10/31 at ODU W -24.5 55-30 o66 11/7 FAU L -24.5 35-19 u67.5 11/21 at FIU NA -18.5 63-7 NA 11/27 Marshall W -11 49-28 o64 12/5 Southern Miss W -7.5 45-28 u77 South Florida (SU: 8-4, ATS: 10-2, O/U: 6-6) 9/5 Florida A&M W -28.5 51-3 o39.5 9/12 at Florida St W +28.5 14-34 u54 9/19 at Maryland L +6.5 17-35 o51 10/2 Memphis W +8 17-24 u58.5 10/10 Syracuse W -1 45-24 o46.5 10/17 at Connecticut W +2.5 28-20 o44.5 10/24 SMU W -12.5 38-14 u62 10/31 at Navy L +7 17-29 u51 11/7 at E Carolina W +5 22-17 u55 11/14 Temple W +2.5 44-23 o44.5 11/20 Cincinnati W +2 65-27 o64 11/27 at C Florida W -24.5 44-3 u53.5 2015 Season Stats WKU USF Offensive PPG 44.2 33.5 Defensive PPG 25.2 21.1 Rushing Off YPG 154.5 242.9 Rushing Off YPC 4.7 5.3 Passing Off YPG 365.4 185.8 Off Comp % 72.0 61.4 TD/Int Ratio 47/7 24/9 Total Offense 519.8 428.7 Rushing Def YPG 156.6 140.6 Rushing Def YPC 4.2 3.6 Passing Def YPG 234.5 220.6 Def Comp % 54.6 54.6 TD/Int Ratio 26/17 13/15 Total Defense 391.1 361.2 YPG Difference +128.7 +67.5 Kick Returns 21.8 28.2 Punt Returns 6.2 12.6 Kick Return Def 19.2 20.2 Punt Return Def 8.7 7.3 Net Punt 36.7 38.7 FG s 14/15 15/21 Sacks vs 14 21 Sacks by 26 32 TO Margin +16 +8 WKU USF Quarterback 44 - Running Back - 4 Receivers 44 - Offensive Line - - Defensive Line - 4 Linebackers - 1/2 Defensive Backs - 1/2 Special Teams - 4 Turf/Crowd - 4 Matchups 1/2 - Intangibles - 1/2 USF BY 2 4 s MIAMI BEACH BOWL South Florida was 10-2 ATS this year, which was a national-best. Despite being an underdog in 8 games this year, they won 4 of those outright. South Florida 35 Western Kentucky 34. Some interesting dynamics here as former WKU head coach Taggart is now with the Bulls. Taggart led the Hilltoppers to their first ever bowl appearance in 2012 but left prior to the bowl game to come to South Florida. Both teams come in red hot. WKU won 9 of their last 10 games (only loss at LSU) and ended up winning CUSA this year living up to their high preseason expectations. Their QB Doughty has now thrown for more than 4,500 yards in back-to-back seasons. On the other side, South Florida finished the season 10-2 ATS and they would win 7 of their last 8 games. They prefer a ground-and-pound approach on offense. As you can see by the checklist here, we actually think the wrong team is favored in this one. Granted WKU has the superior offense, USF has the defensive and special teams edges and will be playing far closer to home here. They also played in a much tougher conference. The Bulls won all 3 of their underdog roles in the month of November outright and we look for another outright upset here. Also note we haven t gotten over WKU s 49-14 blown 4Q cover laying 3.5 in last year s bowl. RATING: 2H South Florida (+2.5) over WKU
Akron (SU: 7-5, ATS: 7-5, O/U: 5-7) 9/5 at Oklahoma L +31.5 3-41 u57 9/12 Pittsburgh L +12 7-24 u50 9/19 Savannah St L -46 52-9 o59.5 9/26 at UL Laf W +7.5 35-14 u51.5 10/3 Ohio W +2.5 12-14 u44 10/10 at E Michigan W -8 47-21 o53 10/17 at Bowl Green L +12 10-59 o66 10/31 C Michigan L +2.5 6-14 u46.5 11/7 at Mass W +2 17-13 u54 11/14 at Miami (OH) W -6.5 37-28 o52 11/21 Buffalo W -4.5 42-21 o44.5 11/27 Kent State W -10.5 20-0 u38.5 Utah State (SU: 6-6, ATS: 5-7, O/U: 9-3) 9/3 Southern Utah L -31 12-9 u47 9/11 at Utah W +12 14-24 u45.5 9/19 at Washington L +7.5 17-31 o45 10/3 Colorado State W -4.5 33-18 o49.5 10/10 at Fresno State W -11.5 56-14 o48 10/16 Boise State W +8.5 52-26 o50 10/23 at S Diego St L -4 14-48 o44 10/30 Wyoming W -26 58-27 o50 11/7 at New Mex L -16 13-14 u58 11/14 at Air Force L -2 28-35 o51 11/21 Nevada L -14.5 31-27 o54.5 11/28 BYU L +3 28-51 o55 Toledo (SU: 9-2, ATS: 8-2-1, O/U: 3-7-1) 9/3 Stony Brook NA NA NA NA 9/12 at Arkansas W +22.5 16-12 u56.5 9/19 Iowa State P -7 30-23 u58 9/26 Arkansas State W -7 37-7 u58 10/3 at Ball State W -6 24-10 u54.5 10/10 Kent State W -15.5 38-7 u46 10/17 E Michigan W -28.5 63-20 o61.5 10/24 at Mass W -14.5 51-35 o62 11/3 N Illinois L -7 27-32 u62.5 11/10 at C Michigan W -3 28-23 u54.5 11/17 at Bowl Green W +7.5 44-28 p72 11/27 W Michigan L -8 30-35 o60.5 Temple (SU: 10-3, ATS: 9-4, O/U: 4-8-1) 9/5 Penn State W +6.5 27-10 u43.5 9/12 at Cincinnati W +6.5 34-26 o55 9/19 at Mass L -13 25-23 u54.5 10/2 at Charlotte W -21.5 37-3 u43.5 10/10 Tulane W -15 49-10 o44.5 10/17 UCF L -20.5 30-16 p46 10/22 at E Carolina W +3 24-14 u48.5 10/31 Notre Dame W +11 20-24 u51.5 11/6 at SMU W -13 60-40 o51 11/14 at USF L -2.5 23-44 o44.5 11/21 Memphis W +3 31-12 u57.5 11/28 Connecticut W -12 27-3 u39.5 12/5 at Houston L +5.5 13-24 u53.5 Boise State (SU: 8-4, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 6-6) 9/4 Washington L -12 16-13 u55.5 9/12 at BYU L -2.5 24-35 o56.5 9/18 Idaho State W -28 52-0 u61 9/25 at Virginia W -2 56-14 o49 10/3 Hawaiʻi W -25 55-0 u56 10/10 at Colorado St W -15 41-10 u59.5 10/16 at Utah State L -8.5 26-52 o50 10/24 Wyoming L -35 34-14 u57 10/31 at UNLV W -20 55-27 o56 11/14 New Mexico L -30.5 24-31 u57.5 11/20 Air Force L -11 30-37 o55 11/27 at San Jose St W -7.5 40-23 o58 Northern Illinois (SU: 8-5, ATS: 9-4, O/U: 6-7) 9/5 UNLV L -22.5 38-30 o61.5 9/12 Murray State W -29 57-26 o77 9/19 at Ohio State W +34.5 13-20 u67.5 9/26 at Boston Coll W +4 14-17 u45 10/3 at C Michigan L -2.5 19-29 u51.5 10/10 Ball State W -10.5 59-41 o56 10/17 at Miami (OH) W -16.5 45-12 o56.5 10/24 E Michigan W -27.5 49-21 o67 11/3 at Toledo W +7 32-27 u62.5 11/11 at Buffalo W -7 41-30 o55 11/18 W Michigan W -3 27-19 u61.5 11/24 Ohio L -13 21-26 u58 12/4 vs. BG L +13 14-34 u69.5 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Akron vs Utah State December 22nd 3:30PM ESPN Boise, ID 2015 Season Stats Akron USt Offensive PPG 24.0 29.7 Defensive PPG 21.5 27.0 Rushing Off YPG 170.2 167.9 Rushing Off YPC 4.1 4.5 Passing Off YPG 193.8 202.9 Off Comp % 49.7 56.1 TD/Int Ratio 17/11 18/9 Total Offense 364.1 370.8 Rushing Def YPG 89.8 156.2 Rushing Def YPC 2.8 3.7 Passing Def YPG 238.8 180.4 Def Comp % 58.7 54.4 TD/Int Ratio 20/13 15/9 Total Defense 328.5 336.7 YPG Difference +35.6 +34.1 Kick Returns 16.6 25.5 Punt Returns 5.2 9.7 Kick Return Def 17.2 22.2 Punt Return Def 5.1 8.2 Net Punt 36.6 37.3 FG s 12/19 11/17 Sacks vs 15 16 Sacks by 28 26 TO Margin +8 0 Akron USt Quarterback - 4 Running Back - - Receivers - - Offensive Line - - Defensive Line 41/2 - Defensive Backs - 1/2 Special Teams - 4 Turf/Crowd - 44 Matchups - - Bowl History - 4 UTAH STATE BY 5 4 s IDAHO POTATO BOWL : Despite being a favorite in 5 of their last 6 games, Utah St finished the season 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS failing to cover those games by an avg of 15 ppg. Marmot Boca Raton Bowl Toledo vs Temple December 22nd 7:00PM ESPN Boca Raton, FL 2015 Season Stats Tol Tem Offensive PPG 35.3 30.8 Defensive PPG 21.1 19.2 Rushing Off YPG 213.2 153.6 Rushing Off YPC 5.1 4.1 Passing Off YPG 250.1 215.5 Off Comp % 55.2 57.1 TD/Int Ratio 22/10 20/7 Total Offense 463.3 369.2 Rushing Def YPG 115.5 126.2 Rushing Def YPC 3.3 3.8 Passing Def YPG 263.3 203.3 Def Comp % 58.9 56.8 TD/Int Ratio 15/11 11/16 Total Defense 378.8 329.5 YPG Difference +84.5 +39.7 Kick Returns 21.6 21.0 Punt Returns 11.3 10.0 Kick Return Def 19.2 19.9 Punt Return Def 7.9 9.1 Net Punt 35.6 37.0 FG s 18/26 20/25 Sacks vs 4 16 Sacks by 25 32 TO Margin +7 +4 Tol Tem Quarterback - - Running Back 1/2 - Receivers - - Offensive Line 41/2 - Defensive Line - - Linebackers - 41/2 Defensive Backs - 41/2 Special Teams - 4 Coaching - 44 Turf/Crowd - - Matchups 4 - Intangibles - 4 Bowl History 4 - TEMPLE BY 4 4 s BOCA RATON BOWL Temple is 9-3 ATS their last 12 games when they are either an underdog or a FG or less favorite. (Line at press time is Temple -1.5). Poinsettia Bowl Boise State vs Northern Illinois December 23rd 4:30PM ESPN San Diego, CA 2015 Season Stats Boise NIU Offensive PPG 37.8 33.0 Defensive PPG 21.3 25.5 Rushing Off YPG 184.2 205.1 Rushing Off YPC 4.4 4.3 Passing Off YPG 304.3 221.5 Off Comp % 62.8 60.8 TD/Int Ratio 21/11 22/10 Total Offense 488.6 426.6 Rushing Def YPG 117.7 166.8 Rushing Def YPC 3.4 3.9 Passing Def YPG 222.4 233.4 Def Comp % 54.6 56.5 TD/Int Ratio 14/22 22/21 Total Defense 342.1 400.2 YPG Difference +146.5 +26.4 Kick Returns 20.9 23.4 Punt Returns 6.0 7.0 Kick Return Def 20.4 16.8 Punt Return Def 11.4 9.3 Net Punt 37.1 34.0 FG s 23/28 14/18 Sacks vs 29 27 Sacks by 28 25 TO Margin +8 +3 Boise NIU Quarterback 41/2 - Running Back - - Receivers 1/2 - Offensive Line - - Defensive Line 4 - Linebackers 4 - Defensive Backs 1/2 - Special Teams - - Turf/Crowd 4 - Matchups 44 - Schedule 4 - Bowl History 4 - BOISE STATE BY 9.5 4 s POINSETTIA BOWL Northern Illinois is 0-5 SU/ ATS as an underdog in bowl games losing by an average of 22 ppg and failing to cover those by an average of 14 ppg. 5 Utah State 26 Akron 20. While Akron has been to only one previous bowl in their school history (2005), their head coach Bowden is coaching in his 4th bowl game as he went 2-1 SU/0-3 ATS at Auburn back in the 90 s. On the other side, Utah St is making their 5th straight bowl appearance and they are playing here for the 3rd time in those 5 years (1-1 SU/ ATS in those 2 previous appearances). Their head coach Wells is already 2-0 SU/ATS in bowl games. These two teams come into this one on opposite ends of the spectrum. Utah State closed the season on a 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS run as we easily cashed multiple star-rated picks on these pages going against them. Meanwhile Akron won and covered each of their last 4 games. Utah State will no doubt have the crowd edge in this one as they are nearly 1,500 miles closer than Akron. While we don t see much value on the side in this one, we will back the UNDER. Both defenses are stronger than their opponent s offenses and please note that phenomenal Akron run defense allowing just 89.8 rush ypg and 2.8 ypc. Finally, each of Utah State s last two bowl games easily went UN- DER the total featuring 21-14 and 21-6 scores. RATING: 1H Akron/Utah State UNDER 48.5 Temple 31 Toledo 21. These two actually played in the same conference not too long ago with Toledo winning 36-13 in the last meeting (2011). This is only Temple s 3rd bowl game since 1979 and while it is their head coach Rhule s first bowl game, on the other side, it is UT head coach Candle s 1st ever game as a HC! Candle (the OC this year) will take over the duties full-time starting with this one as previous head coach Campbell left for Iowa State after the regular season. Both teams had a shot at a major bowl bid late in the year but came up just short. Both teams were also among the best in the country ATS this year as Toledo was 8-2-1 while Temple was 9-4 ATS. While Toledo has the edge on offense (check out their OL stats, allowing only 4 sacks this year!), Temple has the edges on defense and special teams and that s usually a good thing when you have a short line. Then you add in the massive coaching edge (5 UT assistant coaches off to Iowa St) while also factoring in Temple s tougher schedule edge, the Owls are clearly the play here. Also note that Toledo is playing on grass for the first time this season while Temple plays their home games on grass. RATING: 3H Temple (-1.5) over Toledo Boise State 35 Northern Illinois 21. Despite these two being perennial bowl teams over the last decade-plus, this will be the first meeting. The recent bowl history favors the Broncos as NIU is underwhelming in bowl games as a dog (see key ATS stat below). Boise State is 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS in bowl games when HC Harsin was either the OC or HC including a win over Arizona in Harsin s first year as HC last year. Boise looked like the top Group of 5 team in the country half way through the season as they were 5-1 SU and had 4 straight covers. However, a TO-filled game against Utah State derailed their season and they even did the unthinkable losing back-to-back home games. Still, they outscored their opponents by 16.5 ppg and were +146.5 ypg on the season. On the other side, NIU was surging towards another MAC championship until their second string QB Graham got hurt in the Ohio game and they were forced to play a walk-on the last 1.5 games. They only outgained their opponents by 26.4 ypg this year. While Boise is clearly the better team, the return of NIU QB Graham who performed well in his 3 games of action prevents it from being a much stronger play. RATING: 2H Boise St (-8.5) over N Illinois
GoDaddy Bowl Georgia Southern vs Bowling Green December 23rd 8:00PM ESPN Mobile, AL Georgia Southern (SU: 8-4, ATS: 8-4, O/U: 5-7) 2015 Season Stats GS BG Offensive PPG 34.7 43.4 9/5 at W Virginia L +17 0-44 u55.5 Defensive PPG 23.3 26.7 9/12 W Michigan W +5 43-17 o56.5 Rushing Off YPG 355.6 184.9 9/19 The Citadel W -22 48-13 o56.5 Rushing Off YPC 6.5 4.7 9/26 at Idaho W -15.5 44-20 u67.5 10/3 at UL Monroe W -5.5 51-31 o47.5 Passing Off YPG 61.8 376.1 10/17 New Mex St L -30.5 56-26 o63 Off Comp % 42.6 68.3 10/22 at App St L +6.5 13-31 u61 TD/Int Ratio 3/10 44/8 10/29 Texas State W -21 37-13 u67.5 Total Offense 417.4 561.0 11/14 at Troy W -5.5 45-10 u58 Rushing Def YPG 132.2 161.6 11/21 at Georgia W +13.5 17-23 u50.5 Rushing Def YPC 3.9 4.0 11/28 S Alabama W -21.5 55-17 o55.5 Passing Def YPG 203.9 247.2 12/5 Georgia State L -20.5 7-34 u58 Def Comp % 55.9 59.1 Bowling Green (SU: 10-3, ATS: 9-3-1, O/U: 6-6-1) TD/Int Ratio 19/17 18/20 Total Defense 336.1 408.8 9/5 vs. Tennessee L +21.5 30-59 o68 9/12 at Maryland W +7.5 48-27 o71.5 9/19 Memphis P +3 41-44 o75.5 9/26 at Purdue W -4.5 35-28 u75 10/3 at Buffalo L -8 28-22 u67.5 10/10 Massachusetts W -13.5 62-38 o78.5 10/17 Akron W -12 59-10 o66 10/24 at Kent State W -14 48-0 u58.5 11/4 Ohio W -20.5 62-24 o67 11/11 at W Michigan W -3 41-27 u72 11/17 Toledo L -7.5 28-44 p72 11/24 at Ball State W -23 48-10 u74.5 12/4 vs. N Illinois W -13 34-14 u69.5 YPG Difference +81.3 +152.2 Kick Returns 25.4 17.2 Punt Returns 16.1 4.4 Kick Return Def 14.9 21.5 Punt Return Def 2.6 18.1 Net Punt 38.8 39.2 FG s 15/19 8/15 Sacks vs 8 35 Sacks by 21 30 TO Margin +4 +14 GS BG Quarterback - 441/2 Running Back - - Receivers - 444 Offensive Line 44 - Defensive Line - - Defensive Backs 1/2 - Special Teams 41/2 - Turf/Crowd 4 - Matchups - 4 Bowl History - 1/2 BOWLING GREEN by 3 4 s GODADDY BOWL : Since opening season losses to Power 5 teams, Georgia Southern and Bowling Green were a combined 17-5-1 ATS this year. Bowling Green 40 Georgia Southern 34. 1st meeting between these two and also the first ever bowl game for the Georgia Southern program. It will also be a bowl featuring two interim coaches as both head coaches left for greener pastures. DC Ward will be the interim for the Falcons while assistant HC/RB coach McGee will be the interim for the Eagles. Bowling Green was able to win their 2nd MAC championship in the last 3 years as they are led by QB Johnson and his nation-leading 4,700 passing yards. Meanwhile, GS also has a high-powered offense but they do it via the ground as they led the nation in rushing averaging 356 ypg. As you can see by the checklist below, Georgia Southern s talent level compares quite well to Bowling Green s and they were all set in being a strong star-rated pick on these pages until their head coach Fritz shockingly left for Tulane this past weekend. Therefore, we ll side with the obvious OVER in this one as we love playing OVERS in games involving option teams against pass-happy teams as neither one gets much experience seeing it in practice. While this is the highest total for a Georgia Southern game all year, it is BG s second lowest total. RATING: 2H Ga South/Bowl Green OVER 66 Bahamas Bowl Middle Tennessee vs Western Michigan December 24th 12:00PM ESPN Nassau, Bahamas Middle Tennessee (SU: 7-5, ATS: 8-4, O/U: 4-8) 9/5 Jackson State W -39 70-14 o56.5 9/12 at Alabama W +34.5 10-37 u56.5 9/19 Charlotte W -18.5 73-14 o64.5 9/26 at Illinois W +4 25-27 u62 10/3 Vanderbilt L -2 13-17 u48.5 10/10 at WKU L +7.5 28-58 o70 10/17 FIU L -11 42-34 o52.5 10/24 at La Tech L +7.5 16-45 u64 11/7 Marshall W -2.5 27-24 u57.5 11/14 at Florida Atl W -5.5 24-17 u58.5 11/21 North Texas W -23 41-7 u63.5 11/28 at UTSA W -12 42-7 u58.5 Western Michigan (SU: 7-5, ATS: 7-5, O/U: 6-5-1) 9/4 Michigan State W +17 24-37 o56 9/12 at Ga Southern L -5 17-43 o56.5 9/19 Murray State W -31.5 52-20 p72 9/26 at Ohio State W +33.5 12-38 u62.5 10/10 C Michigan L -6 41-39 o51 10/17 at Ohio W +3.5 49-14 o53 10/24 Miami (OH) L -24.5 35-13 u54.5 10/29 at E Michigan W -19 58-28 o64.5 11/5 Ball State W -14.5 54-7 u62 11/11 Bowl Green L +3 27-41 u72 11/18 at N Illinois L +3 19-27 u61.5 11/27 at Toledo W +8 35-30 o60.5 Cincinnati (SU: 7-5, ATS: 6-6, O/U: 6-6) 9/5 Alabama A&M L -45.5 52-10 o69 9/12 Temple L -6.5 26-34 o55 9/19 at Miami (OH) L -20.5 37-33 o60 9/24 at Memphis W +8 46-53 o70.5 10/1 Miami (FL) W +7 34-23 u70 10/16 at BYU L +5.5 24-38 u68 10/24 Connecticut W -12 37-13 u57.5 10/31 UCF W -26.5 52-7 u61 11/7 at Houston W +8.5 30-33 u70 11/14 Tulsa L -21 49-38 o76.5 11/20 at USF L -2 27-65 o64 11/28 at E Carolina W -1.5 19-16 u69.5 San Diego State (SU: 10-3, ATS: 7-5-1, O/U: 6-7) 9/5 San Diego L -36.5 37-3 u46.5 9/12 at California L +13.5 7-35 u59.5 9/19 S Alabama L -17.5 27-34 o46.5 9/26 at Penn State L +14.5 21-37 o40 10/3 Fresno State W -8 21-7 u53 10/10 at Hawaiʻi W +2 28-14 u45.5 10/17 at San Jose St W +2.5 30-7 u48 10/23 Utah State W +4 48-14 o44 10/31 at Colorado St W -3.5 41-17 o51 11/14 Wyoming W -24 38-3 u49 11/21 at UNLV W -16.5 52-14 o51 11/28 Nevada P -17 31-14 u49 12/5 Air Force L -6 27-24 o47.5 2015 Season Stats MT WM Offensive PPG 34.2 35.2 Defensive PPG 25.1 28.1 Rushing Off YPG 148.2 197.2 Rushing Off YPC 3.7 4.9 Passing Off YPG 310.4 283.8 Off Comp % 66.7 67.3 TD/Int Ratio 28/9 28/8 Total Offense 458.7 480.9 Rushing Def YPG 141.3 186.6 Rushing Def YPC 3.8 5.3 Passing Def YPG 247.0 224.8 Def Comp % 58.5 54.8 TD/Int Ratio 21/16 21/9 Total Defense 388.3 411.3 YPG Difference +70.4 +69.6 Kick Returns 21.2 21.7 Punt Returns 4.9 9.3 Kick Return Def 23.7 20.1 Punt Return Def 10.0 5.0 Net Punt 31.5 39.9 FG s 11/15 16/20 Sacks vs 14 29 Sacks by 21 14 TO Margin -3 0 MT WM Quarterback - - Running Back - 4 Receivers - 1/2 Offensive Line - 1/2 Defensive Line 4 - Linebackers 1/2 - Defensive Backs - 1/2 Special Teams - 44 Coaching 1/2 - Turf/Crowd - - Matchups - - W MICHIGAN BY 3.5 4 s BAHAMAS BOWL W Michigan played 4 more bowl teams than Middle Tenn this year and fared much better going 4-4 ATS (-29 ypg) vs MT s 1-2-1 ATS (-112 ypg). Hawai i Bowl Cincinnati vs San Diego State December 24th 8:00PM ESPN Honolulu, HI 2015 Season Stats Cincy SDSt Offensive PPG 36.1 31.4 Defensive PPG 30.2 17.2 Rushing Off YPG 186.2 235.3 Rushing Off YPC 4.7 4.9 Passing Off YPG 373.1 143.0 Off Comp % 62.5 55.0 TD/Int Ratio 29/19 15/3 Total Offense 559.2 378.3 Rushing Def YPG 190.8 111.2 Rushing Def YPC 5.0 3.2 Passing Def YPG 223.8 176.8 Def Comp % 57.1 52.9 TD/Int Ratio 22/9 14/20 Total Defense 414.7 287.9 YPG Difference +144.5 +90.4 Kick Returns 20.0 26.9 Punt Returns 10.4 10.1 Kick Return Def 24.9 22.9 Punt Return Def 9.5 5.6 Net Punt 38.7 37.1 FG s 21/27 17/22 Sacks vs 22 19 Sacks by 12 33 TO Margin -16 +19 Cincy SDSt Quarterback 444 - Running Back - 44 Receivers 44 - Offensive Line - 1/2 Defensive Line - 44 Linebackers - 41/2 Defensive Backs - 41/2 Special Teams - 1/2 Coaching 4 - Turf/Crowd - 41/2 Matchups 1/2 - Schedule - - SAN DIEGO ST BY 3 4 s HAWAI I BOWL San Diego State was 3-0 ATS as an underdog of 4-points or less this year winning those 3 games outright by an average of 24 ppg. 6 Western Michigan 35 Middle Tennessee 30. First meeting between the two teams and obviously their first appearance in this bowl as it s only in it s second season. Western Michigan is 0-6 SU all-time in bowl games and lost to Air Force last year 38-24 in head coach PJ Fleck s first bowl. On the other side, Stockstill is 1-3 SU/ATS in bowl games. MT won and covered each of their last 4 games to make sure they got to a bowl after just missing out last year. Playing for his father, Brent Stockstill was a revelation as a redshirt freshman throwing for 3,678 yards (67%) with a 27-8 ratio for the Blue Raiders. Not to be out-done on the other side, Western Michigan s Zach Terrell also completed 67% of his passes and also had a 27-8 TD-to-INT ratio. They also come in on a high note after upsetting Top 25 Toledo in the finale. We don t see a tremendous amount of value in this one as both teams were 7-5 SU, both had winning ATS records and while MT out-gained their foes by 70.4 ypg this season, WM out-gained their foes by 69.6 ypg (WM did play the tougher schedule). Therefore, we ll let the power ratings decide this one and they call Western Michigan by about 5.5 points. RATING: 1H W Michigan (-3) over Middle Tenn San Diego State 31 Cincinnati 27. Both teams are making their first Hawaii bowl appearances but San Diego St has played here twice in the last 3 years and won and covered both. Tuberville gets the huge edge as far as bowl performances go as he his 7-5 SU/6-6 ATS in his career (0-2 SU/ATS here). Rocky Long is just 2-7 SU/ATS in his career in bowls including 1-3 SU/ATS here but two of the losses here came in the final seconds. Cincinnati had a disappointing season as despite being arguably the most talented team in the AAC as they only went 7-5 (note their +144.5 ypg advantage over opponents). On the other side, San Diego State rolls into the bowl winning each of their last 9 games (7-1-1 ATS) by an average of 22 ppg. Even without their QB Smith (out for season), the Aztecs won the Mountain West championship over Air Force and managed a near 100-yard edge. Please note the huge discrepancy in TO margin between the two teams as San Diego State leads the country at +19 while Cincinnati is one of the worst at -16. Better defense, better special teams, while also having the huge familiarity edge of the unique site makes the Aztecs the play on these pages. RATING: 2H San Diego St (+1.5) over Cincinnati
4H = BEST 3H = BETTER 2H = GOOD 1H = FAIR THE POWERS PACK 3H Green Bay (-3) over OAKLAND 2H WASHINGTON (+1) over Buffalo 2H NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Detroit Games in Rotation Order HOME TEAM IN CAPS Thursday, December 17th Tampa Bay 21 ST. LOUIS 20. The winner here will still have faint playoff hopes. These teams looked to be heading in opposite directions prior to last week. However STL after 5 straight losses, upset Detroit at home while TB after winning 3 of 4 games were upset at home by New Orleans as they were out-gained by nearly 100 yards. We re always careful in not over-reacting from one week to another in the NFL and it s tough trusting St. Louis in any favorite role. Slight lean on the Bucs. Saturday, December 19th NY Jets 23 DALLAS 17. The Jets certainly did their part last week in putting up 30 points (27 by halftime), but TEN didn t do theirs as we lost on an OVER play on these pages by 5 points in their 30-8 win. The Jets have now won 3 straight games and are firmly in the playoff hunt (note QB Fitzpatrick s 9-0 ratio in last 3 games). On the other side, the Cowboys after a upset win over Washington fell back to earth with a 28-7 loss to Green Bay and for all intensive purposes are out of the playoff hunt. With NE on deck and Pittsburgh/Kansas City continuing to win, there can t be any let up for the Jets here against a DAL team that is 1-6 ATS at home this year. Sunday, December 20th MINNESOTA 23 Chicago 19. In the earlier matchup this season, Minnesota scored 10 points in the final 2:00 to pull out a 3-point win (much to our dismay). Despite missing several defensive starters and traveling on a short week, Minnesota put forth a solid effort in their 23-20 loss to Arizona. Now after suffering back-to-back losses against SEA and ARZ (two top 5 teams), they are in desperate need of a feelgood win at home here. After failing us yet again last week on these pages in the closing minute, we re officially cutting bait with the Bears. However, please note Chicago has not lost to any foe this season by more than 6 points. JACKSONVILLE 27 Atlanta 21. Like we said in the TB/STL write-up, be careful overreacting to just one week in the NFL as the two come in off disparate results (Jacksonville won 51-16, Atlanta lost 38-0). However, it s not just been one week of misery for the Falcons, it s been 6 straight losses and 9 straight ATS losses as they are remarkably on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs go despite a 5-0 start. Meanwhile, the Jags are enjoying one of their best seasons in years and clearly have a bright future led by QB Bortles (30-10 ratio this year). Lean on Jags. INDIANAPOLIS 20 Houston 17. Both teams come in off blowout losses but both firmly remain in the AFC South division title hunt. The Colts won at Houston in the earlier meeting and are 13-0 SU at home vs Houston all-time. There are major injury concerns at the QB position in this one as it looks like it will Yates vs Hasselbeck. Hoyer was concussed in last week s loss to New England while there was some hope that Luck would be back for Indy here. No line on this one means a no play for us at this time but also note that Indy s 16-game AFC South streak came to an end. Kansas City 26 BALTIMORE 16. Even though they failed to get the cover last week, the Chiefs got their 7th straight win as they remain firmly in the playoff hunt. They have out-scored their opponents by 17 ppg during the streak. On the other side, the Ravens after hanging tough for most of the season, were simply overwhelmed by Seattle 35-6 with Clausen behind center. Now they look to bring in Ryan Mallett this week. We re certainly not big on laying more than a TD on the road but Baltimore s QB situation leaves us no other choice. 2H WASHINGTON 23 Buffalo 20. Both teams sit at 6-7 and both desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Redskins remarkably rebounded from a home loss to Dallas last Monday and won on the road for the first time this season at Updated NFL Records: Straight Up, ATS and Over/Under Straight-Up Against The Spread Over/Under Team Total Home Away Total Home Away Total Home Away Arizona 11-2-0 5-1-0 6-1-0 7-6-0 2-4-0 5-2-0 8-5-0 4-2-0 4-3-0 Atlanta 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0 4-9-0 2-4-0 2-5-0 2-11-0 1-5-0 1-6-0 Baltimore 4-9-0 2-4-0 2-5-0 3-8-2 0-5-1 3-3-1 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0 Buffalo 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0 6-6-1 3-3-0 3-3-1 7-6-0 4-2-0 3-4-0 Carolina 13-0-0 7-0-0 6-0-0 10-3-0 5-2-0 5-1-0 8-4-1 4-2-1 4-2-0 Chicago 5-8-0 1-6-0 4-2-0 6-6-1 1-5-1 5-1-0 6-7-0 4-3-0 2-4-0 Cincinnati 10-3-0 5-2-0 5-1-0 10-2-1 4-2-1 6-0-0 7-6-0 3-4-0 4-2-0 Cleveland 3-10-0 2-5-0 1-5-0 4-8-1 2-4-1 2-4-0 8-5-0 5-2-0 3-3-0 Dallas 4-9-0 1-5-0 3-4-0 4-9-0 1-5-0 3-4-0 5-8-0 4-2-0 1-6-0 Denver 10-3-0 4-2-0 6-1-0 7-4-2 3-3-0 4-1-2 4-8-1 1-4-1 3-4-0 Detroit 4-9-0 3-4-0 1-5-0 4-9-0 2-5-0 2-4-0 7-6-0 5-2-0 2-4-0 Green Bay 9-4-0 5-2-0 4-2-0 8-5-0 4-3-0 4-2-0 4-9-0 1-6-0 3-3-0 Houston 6-7-0 4-3-0 2-4-0 6-7-0 4-3-0 2-4-0 7-5-1 3-4-0 4-1-1 Indianapolis 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0 7-6-0 2-4-0 5-2-0 Jacksonville 5-8-0 4-3-0 1-5-0 7-5-1 4-3-0 3-2-1 9-4-0 5-2-0 4-2-0 Kansas City 8-5-0 4-2-0 4-3-0 7-6-0 3-3-0 4-3-0 7-5-1 3-3-0 4-2-1 Miami 5-8-0 2-4-0 3-4-0 4-9-0 1-5-0 3-4-0 7-6-0 3-3-0 4-3-0 Minnesota 8-5-0 4-2-0 4-3-0 10-3-0 4-2-0 6-1-0 2-10-1 1-5-0 1-5-1 New England 11-2-0 6-1-0 5-1-0 6-4-3 3-1-3 3-3-0 7-6-0 3-4-0 4-2-0 New Orleans 5-8-0 3-3-0 2-5-0 6-6-1 3-2-1 3-4-0 7-6-0 3-3-0 4-3-0 NY Giants 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0 7-5-1 3-3-0 4-2-1 8-5-0 4-2-0 4-3-0 NY Jets 8-5-0 5-2-0 3-3-0 7-5-1 4-3-0 3-2-1 7-6-0 4-3-0 3-3-0 Oakland 6-7-0 2-4-0 4-3-0 7-6-0 2-4-0 5-2-0 7-4-2 4-1-1 3-3-1 Philadelphia 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0 5-8-0 2-4-0 3-4-0 Pittsburgh 8-5-0 5-2-0 3-3-0 7-4-2 4-2-1 3-2-1 5-8-0 3-4-0 2-4-0 San Diego 3-10-0 2-5-0 1-5-0 5-8-0 1-6-0 4-2-0 5-8-0 3-4-0 2-4-0 San Francisco 4-9-0 3-3-0 1-6-0 6-7-0 4-2-0 2-5-0 6-7-0 1-5-0 5-2-0 Seattle 8-5-0 4-2-0 4-3-0 6-6-1 3-3-0 3-3-1 7-6-0 4-2-0 3-4-0 St. Louis 5-8-0 4-3-0 1-5-0 5-7-1 4-3-0 1-4-1 3-10-0 2-5-0 1-5-0 Tampa Bay 6-7-0 3-4-0 3-3-0 7-6-0 3-4-0 4-2-0 6-7-0 4-3-0 2-4-0 Tennessee 3-10-0 1-6-0 2-4-0 4-8-1 2-4-1 2-4-0 6-6-1 3-3-1 3-3-0 Washington 6-7-0 5-2-0 1-5-0 6-7-0 4-3-0 2-4-0 6-7-0 2-5-0 4-2-0 7 Chicago 24-21 (much to our dismay). They now return home where they are 5-2 SU this season and will want to atone for their performance in their last home game. On the other side, the Bills fell to Philly 23-20 last week and are now 2 games out of the Wild Card spot. This is their 5th road game in 6 weeks and while they are the more talented team, the Skins are more disciplined and reliable team (at least at home). NEW ENGLAND 30 Tennessee 15. The Patriots finally stopped our bleeding on these pages as they easily cashed as our top play of the week in their 27-6 win at Houston. The return of TE Gronkowski proved vital and with Denver and Cincinnati going down, they re right back in the driver s seat. On the other side, the Titans offense was a no-show in the 30-8 loss to the Jets as we came up one short on the OVER. While we expect a focused effort out of the Pats here after losing at home to Philly two weeks ago, they are just 5-16 ATS when laying 13 or more. Pass. Arizona 26 PHILADELPHIA 24. The Cardinals come in on added rest after nearly losing to Minnesota last Thursday. Meanwhile, the Eagles are right back in the playoff mix with back-to-back wins and covers with Bradford behind center. We ll put a small lean on the home catching the hook here. Philly would have been a star-rated pick but their next two games are more important (WAS and NYG) and no matter what happens here, if they win those two games, they will win the division. Carolina 24 NY GIANTS 23. After a 38-0 drubbing of Atlanta, the Panthers remain perfect and are also 10-3 ATS this year. Meanwhile, the Giants got a much-needed win at Miami on Monday night to keep their playoff hopes alive. Clearly, they are much better than their 6-7 record indicates (5 blown 4Q leads) and they are very dangerous in this role against an unbeaten team as Manning is 4-0 ATS in his career against 8-0 SU or greater teams. If we didn t have a couple of tough losses with the G-Men on these pages in the last month, we d back them here as a star-rated pick. SEATTLE 30 Cleveland 13. Like they usually do this time of year, the Seahawks are peaking at the right time (now 16-2-1 ATS in December the last 5 years) with 6 wins in their last 7 games and an offense that has averaged 35 ppg the last 4. Last week they mauled the Ravens 35-6. On the other side, Cleveland should be fat and happy off a rare win but we shudder to think what Seattle and the 12th man will do to Manziel and his first visit to Century Link. Lay it if you play it. 3H GREEN BAY 30 Oakland 20. We re still shocked that Oakland won a game outright in Denver last week despite gaining the fewest halftime yards (-12) in NFL history and were -184 yards for the game. And with that upset comes some line value here. McCarthy has resumed play-calling duties for the Packers and they come in off a dominating 28-7 win over Dallas as they topped 200 yards passing and rushing for the first time since 2009. With Zona and Minny on deck, they certainly need this one for playoff positioning. Oakland has been inconsistent at home this year losing by 16 to Minnesota and 14 to Kansas City, two teams the Packers beat handily. SAN DIEGO 24 Miami 23. Both teams come in slumping as the Chargers solid effort against KC came up just short as they have now lost 8 of their last 9 games. On the other side, the Dolphins fell at home to the Giants by a TD and are now just playing out the rest of the season with an interim (2-5 SU/ATS after their 2-0 start with Campbell). With the Dolphins traveling on a short week, we ll call for the home team by 1 and pass on this one for now. PITTSBURGH 23 Denver 20. After their 33-20 win over Cincinnati last week, the Steelers have now scored at least 30 points in a franchise-record 5 games. That will be tested here against a Broncos defense that hasn t allowed a TD in 116:15 of game action. Denver is 13-2 SU/12-3 ATS in its last 15 December games and are coming off a misleading loss to Oakland last week (+184 yards). However, the Steelers are 9-0 SU/ATS their last 9 December games and are currently on the outside looking in with regards to the playoffs. Something has to give and we ll be happy to take the points (Denver 3-0 as a dog this year) in a highly competitive game. Cincinnati 20 SAN FRANCISCO 16. With Andy Dalton out with a thumb injury, this will be the first start for AJ McCarron against a San Francisco team that is more than capable of hanging tough as they are 3-3 SU/4-2 ATS at home this year. However, their 24-10 loss to Cleveland last week concerns us a bit as they were completely dominated and could be just playing out the season. Pass on the side, lean with the UNDER. Monday, December 21st 2H NEW ORLEANS 30 Detroit 23. The Saints aren t yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and have put forth two of the better performances of the season in each of the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Lions could be in for a late-season slide. After the Hail-Mary TD loss to Green Bay two weeks ago, they choked at St. Louis last week. The Saints are notably on a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS run as a Monday night favorite. Brees boasts a 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS record against the Lions in his career with the lone loss coming last year so he will be thinking revenge. Week 15 NFL Power Ratings Rk Team Pre 12/16 1 Carolina 89.60 97.60 2 Arizona 90.50 95.50 3 New England 95.08 95.08 4 Denver 94.55 95.05 5 Seattle 96.10 95.00 6 Pittsburgh 92.90 94.90 7 Cincinnati 92.65 94.15 8 Green Bay 95.33 93.33 9 Kansas City 90.93 91.93 10 Minnesota 91.10 91.60 11 NY Jets 88.05 90.55 12 Buffalo 90.63 90.13 13 NY Giants 88.83 89.33 14 Philadelphia 92.23 89.23 15 Oakland 84.40 88.90 16 Washington 86.43 88.43 Rk Team Pre 12/16 17 New Orleans 90.43 88.42 18 Houston 89.90 88.40 19 Jacksonville 83.95 88.39 20 Tampa Bay 87.23 88.23 21 Indianapolis 94.10 88.10 22 Chicago 88.75 88.09 23 St. Louis 89.08 88.08 24 Detroit 91.03 88.03 25 Miami 90.25 87.25 26 Atlanta 89.00 87.00 27 Dallas 91.20 86.20 28 Baltimore 93.25 86.00 29 San Diego 89.98 85.98 30 San Francisco 88.03 85.53 31 Tennessee 85.00 85.00 32 Cleveland 87.80 84.80
2015-16 College Bowl VIP Service (Includes Every Bowl H-Rated Play): Just $99 Call 1-440-641-1074! Mention Special Code: Page 8 Also includes every side and total lean on all 40 bowls, plus early forecasts, Brad s bowl confidence pool picks & daily weather, injury and line movement updates! How Do Teams Fare Against Power 5 Conference Bowl Teams # of Win Off Def PPG YPG TO Team Gms W L % PPG PPG Diff Diff Margin Air Force (8-5) 1 0 1 0.0% 21.0 35.0-14.0 104-3 Akron (7-5) 2 0 2 0.0% 5.0 32.5-27.5-258 0 Alabama (12-1) 10 9 1 90.0% 31.6 17.1 14.5 140 2 Appalchian St (10-2) 1 0 1 0.0% 10.0 41.0-31.0-95 -2 Arizona (6-6) 7 1 6 14.3% 28.0 46.4-18.4-104 -9 Arizona St (6-6) 9 3 6 33.3% 32.3 37.6-5.2-7 1 Arkansas (7-5) 8 4 4 50.0% 33.9 34.1-0.2-8 2 Arkansas St (9-3) 1 0 1 0.0% 6.0 55.0-49.0-108 -4 Auburn (6-6) 8 2 6 25.0% 22.2 28.2-6.0-55 -2 Baylor (9-3) 6 4 2 66.7% 42.7 34.0 8.7 93-1 Boise State (8-4) 1 1 0 100.0% 16.0 13.0 3.0 158-1 Bowling Green (10-3) 1 0 1 0.0% 30.0 59.0-29.0-47 -1 BYU (9-3) 2 0 2 0.0% 11.5 27.5-16.0-170 2 California (7-5) 8 3 5 37.5% 28.9 34.2-5.4 6 0 Central Michigan (7-5) 2 0 2 0.0% 11.5 27.0-15.5-30 -2 Cincinnati (7-5) 1 1 0 100.0% 34.0 23.0 11.0 19-1 Clemson (13-0) 6 6 0 100.0% 37.7 21.7 16.0 171 8 Duke (7-5) 5 1 4 20.0% 25.2 37.8-12.6-31 -5 Florida (10-3) 6 3 3 50.0% 23.0 21.8 1.2-34 9 Florida St (10-2) 5 4 1 80.0% 28.8 17.4 11.4 58-4 Georgia (9-3) 4 1 3 25.0% 16.0 29.0-13.0-94 -2 Georgia Southern (8-4) 2 0 2 0.0% 8.5 33.5-25.0-178 -4 Georgia St (6-6) 1 0 1 0.0% 28.0 61.0-33.0-108 -3 Houston (12-1) 1 1 0 100.0% 34.0 31.0 3.0 67 3 Indiana (6-6) 5 0 5 0.0% 25.6 39.6-14.0-113 2 Iowa (12-1) 5 4 1 80.0% 25.0 16.6 8.4 48 4 Kansas St (6-6) 6 1 5 16.7% 28.5 42.7-14.2-206 -7 Louisiana Tech (8-4) 2 0 2 0.0% 26.5 42.0-15.5 32-2 Louisville (7-5) 5 1 4 20.0% 23.2 30.0-6.8-40 0 LSU (8-3) 7 4 3 57.1% 23.9 24.9-1.0 10 1 Memphis (9-3) 1 1 0 100.0% 37.0 24.0 13.0 11 1 Miami FL (8-4) 6 3 3 50.0% 22.3 36.2-13.8-94 0 Michigan (9-3) 6 3 3 50.0% 27.8 25.0 2.8 24-5 Michigan St (12-1) 6 6 0 100.0% 33.0 20.0 13.0 90 6 Middle Tennessee (7-5) 1 0 1 0.0% 10.0 37.0-27.0-257 -2 Minnesota (5-7) 6 0 6 0.0% 18.8 29.7-10.8-46 -4 Mississippi St (8-4) 6 2 4 33.3% 22.8 29.8-7.0-7 -8 Navy (9-2) 1 0 1 0.0% 24.0 41.0-17.0-119 -2 BP Sports 2015-16 Season Packages (Pricing Valid Thru December 31st) Package: Details: Price: Powers Picks Newsletter Weekly/Monthly Newsletter (10 Email Issues) $25 College Football Bowl VIP Late Phone/Email Service December 1-January 11 Every single star-rated play sides & totals, GOY, GOM $99 NFL VIP Late Phone/Email Service December 1-February 7 Every single star-rated play sides & totals, GOY, GOM $199 Football (CFB & NFL) VIP Late Phone/Email Service December 1-February 7 Every single star-rated play sides & totals, GOY, GOM $299 College Basketball VIP Late Phone/Email Service January 1-April 4, 2016 Every single star-rated play sides & totals, GOY, GOM $299 NBA VIP Late Phone/Email Service January 1-June 15, 2016 Every single star-rated play sides & totals, GOY, GOM $499 Basketball/Football Late Phone/Email Service Dec 1, 2015-June 15, 2016 Bundle Save $721 Every single star-rated play sides & totals, GOY, GOM $699 Have questions? 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You can also send a check payable to: BP Sports, LLC Call 1-440-641-1074 30628 Detroit Road #142 or order online at bradpowerssports.com Westlake, OH 44145 Best Value # of Win Off Def PPG YPG TO Team Gms W L % PPG PPG Diff Diff Margin NC State (7-5) 5 0 5 0.0% 23.6 36.6-13.0-124 3 Nebraska (5-7) 5 1 4 20.0% 28.2 31.0-2.8 8-8 Nevada (6-6) 2 0 2 0.0% 23.5 44.0-20.5-209 1 New Mexico (7-5) 1 0 1 0.0% 10.0 34.0-24.0-154 0 North Carolina (11-2) 6 5 1 83.3% 43.8 29.5 14.3 20 4 Northern Illinois (8-5) 1 0 1 0.0% 13.0 20.0-7.0-108 3 Northwestern (10-2) 6 4 2 66.7% 13.5 20.3-6.8-72 6 Notre Dame (10-2) 4 2 2 50.0% 35.2 30.8 4.5 43-3 Ohio State (11-1) 5 4 1 80.0% 34.0 18.2 15.8 87 0 Oklahoma (11-1) 7 7 0 100.0% 46.4 23.0 23.4 159 14 Oklahoma St (10-2) 6 4 2 66.7% 41.0 40.8 0.2-76 7 Ole Miss (9-3) 7 5 2 71.4% 33.0 27.7 5.3 43 3 Oregon (9-3) 8 5 3 62.5% 37.9 38.1-0.2 6-1 Penn State (7-5) 5 1 4 20.0% 18.4 30.2-11.8-23 -4 Pittsburgh (8-4) 7 3 4 42.9% 27.1 26.3 0.9 27 1 San Diego St (10-3) 2 0 2 0.0% 14.0 36.0-22.0-159 -3 San Jose St (5-7) 1 0 1 0.0% 21.0 35.0-14.0 64-4 South Florida (8-4) 1 0 1 0.0% 14.0 34.0-20.0-167 -1 Southern Miss (9-4) 1 0 1 0.0% 16.0 34.0-18.0-29 0 Stanford (11-2) 10 8 2 80.0% 36.9 25.9 11.0 15-2 TCU (10-2) 6 4 2 66.7% 38.8 34.5 4.3 103-3 Temple (10-3) 2 1 1 50.0% 23.5 17.0 6.5-19 1 Tennessee (8-4) 5 1 4 20.0% 24.6 26.6-2.0-36 -1 Texas A&M 7 3 4 42.9% 19.9 23.4-3.6-52 -4 Texas Tech (7-5) 7 2 5 28.6% 41.0 50.0-9.0-23 -5 Toledo (9-2) 1 1 0 100.0% 16.0 12.0 4.0-197 1 Tulsa (6-6) 1 0 1 0.0% 38.0 52.0-14.0-170 2 UCLA (8-4) 7 3 4 42.9% 31.3 32.6-1.3 31-1 USC (8-5) 10 5 5 50.0% 31.3 29.8 1.5 4 8 Utah (9-3) 8 5 3 62.5% 30.9 24.8 6.1 12 5 Utah State (6-6) 2 0 2 0.0% 15.5 27.5-12.0-71 -2 Virginia Tech (6-6) 6 1 5 16.7% 25.8 29.5-3.7-69 -4 Washington (6-6) 8 3 5 37.5% 26.1 21.6 4.5-16 4 Washington St (8-4) 7 4 3 57.1% 32.1 34.3-2.1 17-5 West Virginia (7-5) 6 1 5 16.7% 25.3 38.2-12.8-46 -6 Western Kentucky (11-2) 2 0 2 0.0% 27.5 43.0-15.5-70 -3 Western Michigan (7-5) 2 0 2 0.0% 18.0 37.5-19.5-121 0 Wisconsin (9-3) 3 0 3 0.0% 10.0 19.3-9.3-47 -8 8