NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE. Green Bay
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2 NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars /18/ A Minnesota Vikings /25/ H Detroit Lions 7.24 BYE 10/9/ H New York Giants /16/ H Dallas Cowboys /20/ H Chicago Bears /30/ A Atlanta Falcons /6/ H Indianapolis Colts /13/ A Tennessee Titans /20/ A Washington Redskins /28/ A Philadelphia Eagles /4/ H Houston Texans /11/ H Seattle Seahawks /18/ A Chicago Bears /24/ H Minnesota Vikings /1/ A Detroit Lions 7.24 # of Opponents with 8 or more projected wins Teams with 8 or more proj. wins Division game Three home games in a row O/U projected wins for the opponent Days between games Three or more road games in a row 2
3 PROJECTED LINE SAMPLE WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % 1 9/11/2016 H New England :30 2 9/18/2016 H Tampa Bay :05 3 9/25/2016 A Buffalo :00 AM 4 10/2/2016 H Los Angeles : /6/2016 A San Francisco : /17/2016 H NY Jets : /23/2016 H Seattle : /30/2016 A Carolina : /13/2016 H San Francisco : /20/2016 A Minnesota :00 AM 12 11/27/2016 A Atlanta :00 AM 13 12/4/2016 H Washington : /11/2016 A Miami :00 AM 15 12/18/2016 H New Orleans : /24/2016 A Seattle : /1/2017 A Los Angeles :25 For week 17 I gave each team a 50% chance of winning their game seeing lines can be very different in week 17 based on motivation the last week of the season. Projected lines from CG Technologies Las Vegas SU Win probability based on past performance for these lines Start time for team (EST) Projected wins
4 NFC EAST SCHEDULE Pythagorean Theorem 2016 SU Margin 2016 Actual Record 2016 Adjusted Record Difference Close Games <=7 pts Team W L T W L Wins Losses Dallas NY Giants Washington Philadelphia Pythagorean Theorem The Pythagorean theorem is a formula that calculates a team s points scored and allowed into an expected winning percentage. Based on this formula for the 2016 season, Dallas and the Giants over achieved by over two wins last year. Meanwhile, Philadelphia under achieved by two wins last year. Based on this there is a chance the Giants and Dallas could take a step back this year and the Eagles could improve. But, a step back for Dallas and NY doesn t mean they can t exceed their OU numbers for the year. Obviously offseason moves, injuries, etc will also play into this seasons wins and losses. In addition to over achieving by more than two wins last year the Cowboys and Giants also were lucky in close games going 7-3 & 8-3 respectively. Washington also was 6-3 but Philadelphia was very unlucky, going 1-6 SU in close games. Unlike some really bad teams who may not be able to reverse their luck, Philadelphia is the kind of team who can change that luck this year. If those records reverse themselves this year, Philly stands a chance to be near the top of the division. TEAM PROJ WINS TOTAL OPP WINS Schedule Rank PROJ WINS BASED ON PRED LINES Dallas Cowboys New York Giants Washington Redskins Philadelphia Eagles Update: I will update all numbers shortly and post on the website. The table to the left shows projected wins as set by the odds makers for The expected win total is an average from the over and under lines for each team, factoring in the extra juice typically applied to these lines. Washington s projected over under win total is 7.55 wins. When factoring in all of their opponents projected win totals, they add up to wins and rank as the 3rd toughest schedule. Dallas has the 6th toughest schedule. Based on projected lines for all games we can develop a projected win pct based on those lines. Dallas is projected to win 9.83 wins vs their 9.65 win projection (Prior to Elliott suspension). As much as Philly appeared to underachieve last year and was only 1-6 SU in close games, they are projected to win only 7.48 wins versus their 8.30 win projection, which would lead to the under season wins. But, above we paint a picture for the over so this is probably a no play on Philadelphia. 4
5 Dallas WK DATE HA OPPONENT /10/2017 H NY Giants /17/ A Denver /25/ A Arizona /1/ H LA Rams /8/ H Green Bay BYE 10/22/ A San Francisco /29/ A Washington /5/ H Kansas City /12/ A Atlanta /19/ H Philadelphia /23/ H LA Chargers /30/ H Washington /10/ A NY Giants /17/ A Oakland /24/ H Seattle /31/ A Philadelphia 8.3 Host Denver off a Monday night game Host SF off bye week 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H NY Giants L T 2 A Washington W W 3 H Chicago W W 4 A San Francisco W W 5 H Cincinnati W W 6 A Green Bay W W 8 H Philadelphia W W 9 A Cleveland W W 10 A Pittsburgh W W 11 H Baltimore W W 12 H Washington W L 13 A Minnesota W L 14 A NY Giants L L 15 H Tampa Bay W L 16 H Detroit W W 17 A Philadelphia L L 19 H Green Bay L L Good WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H NY Giants :30pm 2 9/17/2017 A Denver :25pm 3 9/25/2017 A Arizona :30pm 4 10/1/2017 H LA Rams pm 5 10/8/2017 H Green Bay :25pm 7 10/22/2017 A San Francisco :05pm 8 10/29/2017 A Washington :25pm 9 11/5/2017 H Kansas City :25pm 10 11/12/2017 A Atlanta :25pm 11 11/19/2017 H Philadelphia :30pm 12 11/23/2017 H LA Chargers :30pm 13 11/30/2017 H Washington :25pm 14 12/10/2017 A NY Giants :25pm 15 12/17/2017 A Oakland :30pm 16 12/24/2017 H Seattle :25pm 17 12/31/2017 A Philadelphia pm 9.83 Travel to Washington with Redskins off Monday night game Host KC with Chiefs off Monday night game Host Chargers on Thanksgiving Travel to the Giants off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) Travel to Philadelphia in last week with Eagles off Monday night game (extra days rest for Dallas) Bad May play first six games without Elliott Face Rams off a Monday night game and Rams off a Thursday game (extra 4 days rest for LA) Face GB with Packers off Thursday night game Host Philadelphia with Eagles off bye week Ugly Face 11 teams projected to win more than 8 games, including 4 of first 5 games and 7 of last 9 games Projected Wins Dallas projected win total is 9.65 but based on projected lines they are calculated to win 9.83 games. 5
6 NY Giants WK DATE HA OPPONENT /10/2017 A Dallas /18/ H Detroit /24/ A Philadelphia /1/ A Tampa Bay /8/ H LA Chargers /15/ A Denver /22/ H Seattle BYE 9 11/5/ H LA Rams /12/ A San Francisco /19/ H Kansas City /23/ A Washington /3/ A Oakland /10/ H Dallas /17/ H Philadelphia /24/ A Arizona /31/ H Washington 7.55 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 A Dallas :30pm 2 9/18/2017 H Detroit :30pm 3 9/24/2017 A Philadelphia pm 4 10/1/2017 A Tampa Bay :05pm 5 10/8/2017 H LA Chargers pm 6 10/15/2017 A Denver :30pm 7 10/22/2017 H Seattle :25pm 9 11/5/2017 H LA Rams pm 10 11/12/2017 A San Francisco :25pm 11 11/19/2017 H Kansas City pm 12 11/23/2017 A Washington :30pm 13 12/3/2017 A Oakland :25pm 14 12/10/2017 H Dallas :25pm 15 12/17/2017 H Philadelphia pm 16 12/24/2017 A Arizona :25pm 17 12/31/2017 H Washington pm 8.51 Good Travel to Oakland off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) Bad Travel to Philadelphia off Monday night game in week 3 Travel to Denver with Broncos off bye week Host Seattle and Kansas City with Seahawks and Chiefs off bye weeks Travel to Washington on a Thursday night Host Dallas with Cowboys off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for Dallas) Ugly Begin and end their season facing teams projected to win more than 8 games in 5 of the first and last 7 games Projected Wins NY s projected win total is 8.97 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 8.51 games Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A Dallas W T 2 H New Orleans W L 3 H Washington L L 4 A Minnesota L L 5 A Green Bay L T 6 H Baltimore W W 7 A Los Angeles W W 9 H Philadelphia W W 10 H Cincinnati W W 11 H Chicago W L 12 A Cleveland W W 13 A Pittsburgh L L 14 H Dallas W W 15 H Detroit W W 16 A Philadelphia L L 17 A Washington W W 18 A Green Bay L L 6
7 Philadelphia WK DATE HA OPPONENT /10/2017 A Washington /17/ A Kansas City /24/ H NY Giants /1/ A LA Chargers /8/ H Arizona /12/ A Carolina /23/ H Washington /29/ H San Francisco /5/ H Denver BYE 11 11/19/ A Dallas /26/ H Chicago /3/ A Seattle /10/ A LA Rams /17/ A NY Giants /25/ H Oakland /31/ H Dallas 9.65 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 A Washington pm 2 9/17/2017 A Kansas City pm 3 9/24/2017 H NY Giants pm 4 10/1/2017 A LA Chargers :05pm 5 10/8/2017 H Arizona pm 6 10/12/2017 A Carolina :25pm 7 10/23/2017 H Washington :30pm 8 10/29/2017 H San Francisco pm 9 11/5/2017 H Denver pm 11 11/19/2017 A Dallas :30pm 12 11/26/2017 H Chicago pm 13 12/3/2017 A Seattle :30pm 14 12/10/2017 A LA Rams :25pm 15 12/17/2017 A NY Giants pm 16 12/25/2017 H Oakland :30pm 17 12/31/2017 H Dallas pm 7.48 Play three games in a row at home with a bye week as well so don t travel for over a month 10/12 to 11/ ats at home last year Face the Giants with NY off Monday night game Host Washington off a Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) Good Host Denver off a Monday night game against rival Kansas City Travel to Dallas off bye week Play three road games in a row including travelling to Seattle and LA in successive weeks 2-6 ats on the road last year Bad Face KC with Chiefs off a Thursday night game (extra 3 days rest) Travel to Carolina on a Thursday night Host SF off a Monday night game Host Dallas off a Monday night game to end the season 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H Cleveland W W 2 A Chicago W W 3 H Pittsburgh W W 5 A Detroit L L 6 A Washington L L 7 H Minnesota W W 8 A Dallas L L 9 A NY Giants L L 10 H Atlanta W W 11 A Seattle L L 12 H Green Bay L L 13 A Cincinnati L L 14 H Washington L L 15 A Baltimore L W 16 H NY Giants W W 17 H Dallas W W Ugly Brutal schedule for Philly facing 10 teams projected to win over 8 games including finishing the season with 6 of 8 games against those teams Projected Wins Philadelphia s projected win total is 8.30 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 7.48 games. 7
8 Washington WK DATE HA OPPONENT /10/2017 H Philadelphia /17/ A LA Rams /24/ H Oakland /2/ A Kansas City BYE 6 10/15/ H San Francisco /23/ A Philadelphia /29/ H Dallas /5/ A Seattle /12/ H Minnesota /19/ A New Orleans /23/ H NY Giants /30/ A Dallas /10/ A LA Chargers /17/ H Arizona /24/ H Denver /31/ A NY Giants ats against above.500 teams last year 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H Pittsburgh L L 2 H Dallas L L 3 A New York Giants W W 4 H Cleveland W W 5 A Baltimore W W 6 H Philadelphia W W 7 A Detroit L L 8 A Cincinnati T W 10 H Minnesota W W 11 H Green Bay W W 12 A Dallas L W 13 A Arizona L L 14 A Philadelphia W W 15 H Carolina L L 16 A Chicago W W 17 H New York Giants L L Good WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H Philadelphia pm 2 9/17/2017 A LA Rams :25pm 3 9/24/2017 H Oakland :30pm 4 10/2/2017 A Kansas City :30pm 6 10/15/2017 H San Francisco pm 7 10/23/2017 A Philadelphia :30pm 8 10/29/2017 H Dallas :25pm 9 11/5/2017 A Seattle :05pm 10 11/12/2017 H Minnesota pm 11 11/19/2017 A New Orleans pm 12 11/23/2017 H NY Giants :30pm 13 11/30/2017 A Dallas :25pm 14 12/10/2017 A LA Chargers :05pm 15 12/17/2017 H Arizona pm 16 12/24/2017 H Denver pm 17 12/31/2017 A NY Giants pm 7.70 Host SF off a bye week Host the Giants on Thursday night Travel to LA off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) Travel to Philadelphia with Eagles off Thursday game Host Dallas off Monday night game Face Vikings off Minnesota bye Host Denver with Broncos off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for Denver) Brutal schedule facing 12 teams projected to win more than 8 games, including 9 of last 11 games Bad Ugly Projected Wins Washington s projected win total is 7.55 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 7.70 games. 8
NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE. Green Bay
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