weekly football tip sheet

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1 weekly football tip sheet ISSUE 19 NFL Wild Card Round College Football Championship

2 Football Weekly INDEX Rotation Schedule...1 NFL Picks...2 NFL Observations...3 Recent NFL Wildcard Playoff Trends...4 NFL Matchups...8 College Football National Championship Matchup...12 Football Line Moves...14 WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY Thanks for picking up a copy of Issue #19 of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly publication. This is a special issue in many ways, as we wrap up the college football season with our coverage of the National Championship Game between Alabama & Georgia, as well as breakdown all of the Wild Card action in the NFL. The season has gone way too fast, and after this, there will be just three issues remaining in our season coverage. We d be remiss if we didn t thank you once again for being a regular reader. Keep in mind that Vegas Insider isn t just football though, as we cover the full gamut of sports on our web property, www. VegasInsider.com. We invite you to visit that address anytime 24/7 for the best in sports betting coverage. The bowl season flew by and we hope you enjoyed what we had to offer for the 39 games. This last week was a good one for a couple of our handicappers, as Jim and Jason combined to go ATS overall on feature games and 6-2 ATS on Best Bets. You will see that all four of our guys are now at least 50% on college Best Bets. Jason has reached 13-games over.500 and has sewn up the season title among the guys. Browse to the two-page spread we have put together for the Alabama-Georgia showdown to see who each of our guys likes in the title contest. While there you will also find plenty of other great coverage including stats, previews, trends, and a handy chart illustrating recent National Championship Game results. Of course, before we even get to the CFP title game on Monday, there is a big weekend of NFL playoff action, and we open our four week dedicated coverage of the NFL postseason by breaking down the four wildcard games on tap for Saturday and Sunday. For each of the games, we are offering extensive coverage, including stat matchups, written previews, head-to-head histories between the teams, our strength ratings, and of course, picks and Best Bets for every game. With the playoffs upon us, we are also dedicating our feature articles for the rest of the year to analyzing the trends and key handicapping angles from playoffs past. This week s article deals exclusively with the Wild Card round, and you might be surprised to find some of the highly distinctive angles we have uncovered, including a 10-0 SU & ATS angle based purely on line placement. Be sure to not place a single playoff bet this weekend until at least consulting this week s article. Every one of the four games is affected by something in the piece. The week 17 games were good for our NFL leader once again, as Jim hit six out of 10 games overall. If you haven t been following Jim Mack, as he s known on VegasInsider.com, has gotten RED HOT with his football Guaranteed Plays. In the NFL, he is on a ATS run in those games, and has a pick on the Chiefs-Titans game lined up for Saturday. In college, he has hit four out of his last five Guarantees. Customers are cleaning up with his winners lately, and of course he has an angle lined up for Monday s big championship contest. We appreciate your continued support of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly, and hope your New Year 2018 is off to a great start! NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFFS SATURDAY, JANUARY 6, TENNESSEE P: 1:20PM C: 3:20PM E: 4:20PM ESPN 102 KANSAS CITY ATLANTA P: 5:15PM C: 7:15PM E: 8:15PM NBC 104 LA RAMS -4-6 SUNDAY, JANUARY 7, BUFFALO P: 10:05AM C: 12:05PM E: 1:05PM CBS 106 JACKSONLLE CAROLINA P: 1:40PM C: 3:40PM E: 4:40PM FOX 108 NEW ORLEANS COLLEGE FOOTBALL NAT'L CHAMPIONSHIP MONDAY, JANUARY 8, 2018 MERCEDES-BENZ STADIUM - ATLANTA, GA 151 ALABAMA P: 5:45PM C: 7:45PM E: 8:45PM ESPN 152 GEORGIA SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 1

3 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 NFL PICKS Jim (51%) (57%)* Jason (50%) (51%)* Doug (47%) (45%)* Matt (50%) (51%)* Football Weekly Power Rating (56%) Effective Strength (50%) Saturday, January 6, (101) TENNESSEE at (102) KANSAS CITY (-9) Kansas City* Tennessee Kansas City* Tennessee Tennessee Kansas City Bettors Ratings (55%) Tennessee Saturday, January 6, (101) TENNESSEE at (102) KANSAS CITY - TOTAL (44.5) Consensus (50%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) Tennessee UNDER OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER Saturday, January 6, (103) ATLANTA at (104) LA RAMS (-6) LA Rams* LA Rams* Atlanta* Atlanta* Atlanta LA Rams Atlanta Atlanta Saturday, January 6, (103) ATLANTA at (104) LA RAMS - TOTAL (48.5) UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER Sunday, January 7, (105) BUFFALO at (106) JACKSONLLE (-8) Jacksonville* Buffalo Jacksonville* Buffalo Buffalo Jacksonville Buffalo Buffalo Sunday, January 7, (105) BUFFALO at (106) JACKSONLLE - TOTAL (40) OVER OVER* UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER Sunday, January 7, (107) CAROLINA at (108) NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) New Orleans Carolina* New Orleans Carolina* Carolina New Orleans Carolina Carolina Sunday, January 7, (107) CAROLINA at (108) NEW ORLEANS - TOTAL (48.5) UNDER OVER OVER OVER* UNDER UNDER OVER OVER Jim says There are many parts of this week s Vegas Insider Football Weekly that catch my eye, but none more so than the Wildcard Trends piece in which it demoted that teams favored by a touchdown or more in this playoff round are on a 10-0 SU & ATS run. Quite simply, the reason this is the case is because games that reach that level by oddsmakers are generally mismatches, and the playoff focus is enough to ensure a consistent effort by the chalk. There will be at least two games that reach that line threshold this season, and the only I would like to focus on is the Chiefs, who despite their recent playoff disappointments, could be playing well enough to make some noise this January. Let s not forget, this Chiefs team is the same one that was the last undefeated team in the NFL in 2017, and generally considered the cream of the crop in the first couple of months. Do you remember what they did to New England on opening night? Yes, that was still the same season we are in now. Obviously Kansas City had some woes along the way, but the body of work we see over the last month leads me to believe they have found their way again, and that is very encouraging, and good timing. On Saturday, they will be taking on a team that doesn t appear to be playoff worthy, outscored by opponents on the season, and in the early stages of the growth process. Just making it to the postseason will be looked back upon as a success for HC Mike Mularkey s team. The Chiefs defense has forced 12 turnovers in the last four weeks and should be able to force QB Marcus Mariota into similar mistakes here. K.C. takes care of business here, let s say Jason says One of the first things that caught my eye in this week s Wild Card Playoff Trends article is that outright winners are on a ATS run in this round. That basically means that if you pick the winner, you pick the spread winner as well. For the Rams-Falcons game on Saturday, I can see how many people would believe that the Falcons have a chance, being the defending NFC champions and all, but let s face the ugly truth here, Atlanta is not the same team it was a year ago. The squeaking into the playoffs aside, there have been many things about the Falcons that have been different this season, not the least of which has been an average offensive unit. After boasting the league s best offense a year ago, QB Matt Ryan & Co. generated just 22.1 PPG this season, less than a point better than their opponents allowed. They are simply average and shouldn t be confused otherwise. The Rams meanwhile, are the prolific offensive unit in this matchup and playing at home. They should be very pumped for this game after their remarkable season. I don t see any chance of them coming out flat with HC Sean McVay setting the tone. The only reason this game has less than a TD spread is because ignorant bettors still continue to believe Atlanta is the same team as a year ago. It ends here for the Falcons. Rams take it convincingly. 2 Doug says Not that there is a good matchup for Buffalo, but Jacksonville really looks to be a poor one. The Bills even with LeSean McCoy only has scored 17.8 points per game on the road this season. Match that up against a Jaguars defense that was second in fewest yards allowed and fewest points conceded. Next, have McCoy at less than 100 percent or not playing at all, that leaves Tyrod Taylor having to survive the NFL s No.2 sack defense, who was also second in interceptions. Next up, let s look at how the Bills are going to stop the Jaguars offense. Though they faltered a bit at the end of the season, Jacksonville was still the league s top rushing offense. They will be mightily determined to play - ground and pound - against Buffalo, who finished 29th in run defense. Make it the Jags THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

4 Football Weekly NFL OBSERVATIONS For this week, thought we would take a look the NFL Futures odds and talk about them and where possibly you should be placing your money. Let s start in the AFC. Odds as of 1/2/2018 New England Patriots -125 Pittsburgh Steelers +280 Kansas City Chiefs +900 Jacksonville Jaguars +900 Tennessee Titans Buffalo Bills Philadelphia is the rarest of conference top seeds as the tournament is ready to commence, an underdog. After two weeks of watching Nick Foles and the Eagles scuffle to move the ball and score, oddsmakers and sports bettors had seen enough. Top-seeded Philadelphia is only the fourth choice for futures odds to win the NFC, despite having a potential pair of home games. The absence of Carson Wentz appears too large for his teammates to overcome and win a pair of contests. To nobody s surprise, New England is the prohibitive favorite. Tennessee and Buffalo might as well not even have odds, but sportsbooks have to post a number and silly team-backers will place small bets for grins. Kansas City and Jacksonville have puncher s odds since they are likely to be road teams in the divisional round, but again, hard to take either very seriously. That leaves what everyone assumed back in July, a Patriots and Pittsburgh matchup. Though the odds are small, the value is with the Steelers. No question winning in Foxboro in January is a tall task. Nevertheless, Pittsburgh will still be burning about losing the Week 15 matchup and if these two teams advance as expected, this could be a special confrontation. THE NFC IS MORE CHALLENGING SELECTION Talk about a quality field! The NFC is stacked! Odds as of 1/2/2018 Minnesota Vikings +175 New Orleans Saints +435 Los Angeles Rams +470 Philadelphia Eagles +500 Atlanta Falcons +900 Carolina Panthers That makes this week s Wild Card contests involving Atlanta, and Carolina and New Orleans so compelling. Either the Falcons or the winner of the other conflict is headed to Philly and at this juncture it seems a given that whatever team it is will be a road favorite. (Unless they have substantial injury also). That has to give them a great deal of optimism, even though they still have to win this week, before even considering the other. That has to benefit Minnesota on almost every level, who could end up playing two home games as the No.2 seed or at worst be favored at Philadelphia if that is how it worked out. The Los Angeles Rams are the true wild card in this scenario. They have shown the talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage to stun everyone like they did 18 years ago. The complete lack of playoff experience was also true of that Rams squad, though this team is even younger. Looking at this picture, the Vikings are safest bet, with the Rams and Saints the better longer shots. 3 SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

5 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly 4 RECENT NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFF TRENDS The NFL playoffs have gone through various trend patterns over the years, with some seasons being dominated by underdog and upstart teams, and others being relatively predictable with favorites taking care of business eventually. Because of the everchanging landscape, it is somewhat difficult for bettors to navigate the waters from year-toyear using past playoffs as a guide. In past decades, predicting the playoffs was usually as easy as looking at a team s body of work. That truly isn t the case anymore, especially on a round-to-round basis, as it seems that how a team is playing lately seems to be a bigger factor than anything else nowadays. That line of thinking would bode well for Kansas City, a team starting its playoff run this weekend after ending the regular season on a surge. However, that said, if any round of the playoffs is truly wild and unpredictable, it is fittingly the Wild Card round. After writing a handful of years ago about how well road teams had been doing in the Wild Card round, wouldn t you know it, the home teams came up with a weekend sweep, including one huge home dog upset. That was in Since then, the success of home & road teams on Wild Card weekend has alternated in a five-year pattern. In the 2012 season, home teams went 3-1 in the Wild Card round, that was followed by road teams going 3-1. Then again after the 2014 season, the hosts held a 3-1 edge. Two years ago, the road teams swept the board, only to find home teams return the favor last January. It would serve that visiting teams would do well in this upcoming weekend. To go on such a flippant theory would be a big risk however. It is clear that the level of unpredictability makes it very tough for football bettors. Although each of the last four Super Bowl games have matched teams that enjoyed the Wild Card round off, prior to that a truly significant trend had emerged of the eventual champion having started their playoff round on Wild Card weekend. In fact, six of the league s last 12 champions have started their playoff journey here, so it sometimes makes more sense to just throw away anything you think you may have learned in the 17 weeks of the regular season. Is the eventual Super Bowl Champion, like Baltimore of 2013, one of the teams playing this weekend? Only time will tell but savvy bettors have picked up big winnings by banking on such thoughts. Many experts right now believe that the Rams, Saints, Panthers, and Chiefs are all capable of winning a title in With the overbearing perception of unpredictability on our minds, we at the Weekly thought we d go back and dig through the database of the recent playoff logs and see if we couldn t uncover any tips of the trade that might help better handicap the Wild Card weekend games. We looked at it all, home/road scenarios, dogs/favorites, lines, stats, you name it. Continue reading to see what we ve found, and then see if you can t apply to the upcoming action. GENERAL WILDCARD PLAYOFF ATS TRENDS The OUTRIGHT winner owns a pointspread record of ATS in the L38 Wildcard Playoff games! That said, games in two of the last three seasons have produced the only ATS losses in that stretch, as Dallas (-6) failed to cover the number in a controversial win over Detroit in 2015, and in 2016, it was Seattle (-4.5) edging Minnesota 10-9 on a late missed field goal. Those were rare, so for this weekend, regardless of the pointspread, if you can t see the team you re betting on winning the game, don t do it. Road teams seem to have regained the edge in this round in recent years, going 7-5 SU & ATS in the L12 Wild Card games. Favorites are on a run of 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS in the L3 Wild Card seasons. Last year, home favorites swept the action 4-0 SU & ATS, the first time that had happened since 2012, or following the 2011 season. Wildcard road favorites have become increasingly common in recent playoff seasons, as there have been 13 in the L9 seasons. Those teams are 8-5 SU & ATS. For 2018, the home favorites have returned, two of them large favorites. Home favorites of a TD or more in the wildcard round are a perfect 10-0 SU & ATS since 2005! For 2018, and for second year in a row, we will be able to take advantage of this trend with both Kansas City and Jacksonville figuring to play as such. The NFC games also have potential to reach that threshold. There has been a definitive separation in success levels of the home teams in the Saturday and Sunday games. In the L22 Saturday games, home teams are 15-7 SU & ATS. In that same span, home teams are SU & ATS on Sunday s. Sunday road NFC teams have been terrific, going 9-6 SU & ATS in the L15. UNDER the total is also 11-4 in those games. The Panthers will test New Orleans on these trends this weekend. WILDCARD TRENDS BY SEED NUMBER #4 seeds are on a 14-8 SU & ATS run over the L11 Wildcard seasons, with Houston & Green Bay both winning by double-digits THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

6 Football Weekly last year. Of the ten #3-#6 seed Wildcard matchups over the last five seasons, UNDER the total is 9-0-1! #3 seeds that were an underdog or less than a 3-point favorite have lost eight straight games outright while going 1-7 ATS, scoring just 13.4 PPG in the process. It s unlikely either game will qualify for this angle in WILDCARD TRENDS REGARDING TOTALS The common pattern in the L7 years has shown that when road teams have won outright, UNDER the total has a record of Home teams scored just 14.5 PPG in those road wins. UNDER the total is on a significant trend pattern going into 2016, with a record of over the L5 seasons. Of the L18 Wild Card games with totals of 44 or higher, UNDER the total is Those with totals less than 44 are 6-4 OVER in the L10. Furthermore, five straight games with closing totals less than 40 went OVER the total. Of the L22 Sunday Wild Card games, 16 have gone UNDER the total. Of the 20 Saturday games, OVER the total is In games expected to be tight, or with lines in the +3 to -3 range for home teams, UNDER the total is on a run of FOLLOW THE LINE MOVES Sharp bettors have been right on sides at a rate of 22-9 SU & in the L31 wildcard playoff games, good for 76.7% ATS!!! This is determined to be when the line moves off its opening position towards either team. For instance, if the line opens as home team minus-3, and closes at home team minus-2, it is assumed that sharp bettors are favoring the road team. Note that the sharps won last year with all four home teams. Similarly, but not quite as advantageous, sharp bettors have also done well on totals in wildcard games. Over the L9 wildcard playoff seasons, bettors are 19-9 (67.9%) when moving totals off their opening numbers. Bettors were 1-1 a year ago but won all four totals in Clearly it is worthwhile to follow the line moves in the week leading up to kickoff. STATS GENERATED IN WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAMES Only one home team that has topped the 20-point mark has lost in the L16 years of wildcard playoff action, going 35-1 SU & ATS, including 4-0 last year. Incidentally, that lone team was 2008 Pittsburgh. Only two home teams that scored 20 points or fewer in a wildcard playoff game have won in the L14 years, going 2-25 SU & ATS. Those winners were San Diego, who beat Tennessee 17-6 in 08, and Houston in 2013, a winner over Cincinnati. In 2016, all four home teams scored 16 points or less. The magic point total for road teams is 17 points. Teams coming up shy of that in the wildcard round are 1-22 SU & 0-23 ATS since 02. Seattle of 16 was the lone winner. Teams reaching that total were ATS in that same span. Teams that gain more first downs are ATS in the L7 wildcard playoff seasons Teams that win the time of possession battle are on a SU & ATS run in the wildcard playoffs. Wildcard playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their playoff games are 29-7 SU & ATS over the L9 seasons. At the same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a wildcard playoff game are just SU & ATS in that same span. Putting up big passing numbers in wildcard playoff games has been a recipe of success the last four wildcard season, since those teams are 18-6 SU & ATS in that time. That is a change from prior years as teams had tended to put up big passing numbers in catch up mode. Alternatively, teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit big plays are far more successful in the long term. In fact, teams gaining more yards per pass attempt in a wildcard playoff game are ATS since 04. Teams committing fewer turnovers than their opponent haven t been as successful as you might think in the wildcard playoffs, but are 21-6 SU & ATS over the L10 seasons. In 13 of the games during that span, the turnover differential was even. TEAMS REGULAR SEASON WON-LOST RECORD TREND If the L9 wildcard playoff seasons have proven anything, it s that regular season records do not matter one iota when it comes to determining who will win. In fact, teams that won more regular season games are just SU & ATS in that span. In four matchups, the teams shared the same won-lost mark. With divisional winners hosting wildcard teams in this round, it is often road teams sporting the better mark. All four home teams in 2018 have at least an even won-lost record as their opponent. Home teams that won fewer games during the season than their wildcard opponent are on a 10-5 SU & ATS run, with both Houston & Green Bay winning a year ago. Home teams that won nine games or fewer during the regular season are on a 7-3 SU & ATS run in the wildcard playoffs. Strangely, at the same time, hosts that won 12 or more games are just one win better at 8-3 SU & 7-4 ATS in their L11 tries. Road wildcard teams that won 11 or more games and were forced to play in the wildcard round are just 7-12 SU & ATS since 08. Alternatively, wildcard visitors that won nine games or less in the regular season boast a record of 7-8 SU & ATS since 02. SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 5

7 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly TEAMS REGULAR SEASON OFFENSIVE STATISTICS TRENDS Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season have won just 15 wildcard playoff games in the L8 years, that s SU & ATS. Rushing statistics have meant little to noth ing when it comes to wildcard playoff success lately, as teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are just SU & ATS since 09. Similarly, those that averaged more yards per rush were just SU & ATS in that span. Wildcard teams with an edge in offensive passing yardage are slightly worse at SU & ATS over the L9 seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per attempt are SU & ATS in that span but have gotten hot of late, going 17-9 SU & ATS in the L26 wildcard games. Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively, and more yards per play in the regular season own only a slight edge when it comes to wildcard playoff success, going SU & ATS over the L9 seasons. Offensive yards per point has proven to be as effective of an offensive statistical indicator as any other category, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point offensively are only SU & ATS in the wildcard playoffs dating back to 06. Teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular season than their opponent are SU & ATS since 08 in wildcard playoff games. Teams that converted 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were just SU & ATS in the L8 wildcard playoff seasons. defensively have been quite successful, going SU & ATS in the wildcard round since 08. Those that held an edge in yards allowed per play were a few games worse at SU & ATS. The teams that gave up fewer yards this season for this weekend are Jacksonville, Tennessee, Carolina, and Atlanta. Wildcard teams that made opposing offenses work harder, or those at allowed more offensive yards per point, have won their wildcard playoff games at a SU & ATS rate over the L8 seasons. This year s edge holders in defensive YPPT are Kansas City, Jacksonville, New Orleans, and the Rams. Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are on a SU & ATS run since 08 in wildcard playoff games. Kansas City, Jacksonville, New Orleans, and the Rams again hold edges for Teams that stopped 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season were SU & ATS in the L36 wildcard playoff games. SUMMARY Although we ve found a few decent trends that you might be willing to put to use this weekend, it s obvious that stats are not the end all when it comes to handicapping wildcard playoff games. Certain stats, as you probably made notes on, can prove very valuable, others almost certainly not, no more valuable than the flip of a coin. If blindly following any stat strategy however, err on the defensive side of things, as it seems that the better defensive teams have been the more reliable wildcard wagers of late. 6 TEAMS REGULAR SEASON DEFENSIVE STATISTICS TRENDS Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are on a SU & ATS run in wildcard playoff action. So far, this is one of the more definitive statistical angles we have found. Atlanta, New Orleans, Jacksonville, and Kansas City hold the edges in the matchups this weekend. Rushing defense has also been effective as an indicator when it comes to winning wildcard playoff games, as teams that allow fewer rushing yards per game are SU & ATS since 08. Those that allowed fewer yards per rush were a bit better at SU & ATS. Wildcard teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed are just SU & ATS over the L9 seasons in this playoff round. Defensive pass efficiency is a curious statistic in that teams who ve held the edge in this category are SU & ATS over the L9 seasons. The interesting part is that 26 of the 35 teams with edges in this stat were the road teams. Teams that allowed less yardage overall For a quick wrap up though, as you get ready for this weekend s games, expect the unexpected. Don t put a whole lot of stock into teams records or home field advantage. Think more along the lines of what have you done for me lately? Ask yourself specific questions Do you see a team capable of making a run all the way to the Super Bowl playing this weekend? If so, that team will almost certainly get the job done here. Have you followed the line moves all week long leading up to kickoff? Which team has the better quarterback/coach nucleus? Did you note the teams with the key statistical edges, particularly in offensive and defensive yards per point? Did you check the Strength Indicators or any other mathematical models that might help project an approximate number of points you can expect from each team? Proper preparations can certainly help separate the betting winners and losers in the playoffs. THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

8 Football Weekly Date Day Seed# - Home Score Seed# - Road Score OL FL OT FT SU ATS O/U SU ATS Conf 2007 Season 1/5/08 Saturday #3 - SEATTLE 35 #6 - WASHINGTON HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC 1/5/08 Saturday #4 - PITTSBURGH 29 #5 - JACKSONLLE ROAD HOME OVER FAV DOG AFC 1/6/08 Sunday #3 - SAN DIEGO 17 #6 - TENNESSEE HOME HOME UNDER FAV FAV AFC 1/6/08 Sunday #4 - TAMPA BAY 14 #5 - NY GIANTS ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG NFC 2008 Season 1/3/09 Saturday #4 - SAN DIEGO 23 #5 - INDIANAPOLIS HOME HOME UNDER DOG DOG AFC 1/3/09 Saturday #4 - ARIZONA 30 #5 - ATLANTA HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC 1/4/09 Sunday #3 - MINNESOTA 14 #6 - PHILADELPHIA ROAD ROAD UNDER FAV FAV NFC 1/4/09 Sunday #3 - MIAMI 9 #6 - BALTIMORE ROAD ROAD UNDER FAV FAV AFC 2009 Season 1/9/10 Saturday #3 - DALLAS 34 #6 - PHILADELPHIA HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC 1/9/10 Saturday #4 - CINCINNATI 14 #5 - NY JETS ROAD ROAD OVER DOG DOG AFC 1/10/10 Sunday #4 - ARIZONA 51 #5 - GREEN BAY HOME HOME OVER DOG DOG NFC 1/10/10 Sunday #3 - NEW ENGLAND 14 #6 - BALTIMORE ROAD ROAD OVER DOG DOG AFC 2010 Season 1/8/11 Saturday #4 - SEATTLE 41 #5 - NEW ORLEANS HOME HOME OVER DOG DOG NFC 1/8/11 Saturday #3 - INDIANAPOLIS 16 #6 - NY JETS ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG AFC 1/9/11 Sunday #3 - PHILADELPHIA 16 #6 - GREEN BAY ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG NFC 1/9/11 Sunday #4 - KANSAS CITY 7 #5 - BALTIMORE ROAD ROAD UNDER FAV FAV AFC 2011 Season 1/7/12 Saturday #3 - HOUSTON 31 #6 - CINCINNATI HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV AFC 1/7/12 Saturday #3 - NEW ORLEANS 45 #6 - DETROIT HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC 1/8/12 Sunday #4 - NY GIANTS 24 #5 - ATLANTA HOME HOME UNDER FAV FAV NFC 1/8/12 Sunday #4 - DENVER 29 #5 - PITTSBURGH HOME HOME OVER DOG DOG AFC 2012 Season 1/5/13 Saturday #3 - GREEN BAY 24 #6 - MINNESOTA HOME HOME UNDER FAV FAV NFC 1/5/13 Saturday #3 - HOUSTON 19 #6 - CINCINNATI HOME HOME UNDER FAV FAV AFC 1/6/13 Sunday #4 - BALTIMORE 24 #5 - INDIANAPOLIS HOME HOME UNDER FAV FAV AFC 1/6/13 Sunday #4 - WASHINGTON 14 #5 - SEATTLE ROAD ROAD UNDER FAV FAV NFC 2013 Season 1/4/14 Saturday #4 - INDIANAPOLIS 45 #5 - KANSAS CITY HOME HOME OVER DOG DOG AFC 1/4/14 Saturday #3 - PHILADELPHIA 24 #6 - NEW ORLEANS ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG NFC 1/5/14 Sunday #3 - CINCINNATI 10 #6 - SAN DIEGO ROAD ROAD UNDER DOG DOG AFC 1/5/14 Sunday #4 - GREEN BAY 20 #5 - SAN FRANCISCO ROAD Push UNDER FAV - NFC 2014 Season 1/3/15 Saturday #4 - CAROLINA 27 #5 - ARIZONA HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC 1/3/15 Saturday #3 - PITTSBURGH 17 #6 - BALTIMORE ROAD ROAD Tie DOG DOG AFC 1/4/15 Sunday #3 - DALLAS 24 #6 - DETROIT HOME ROAD UNDER FAV DOG NFC 1/4/15 Sunday #4 - INDIANAPOLIS 26 #5 - CINCINNATI HOME HOME UNDER FAV FAV AFC 2015 Season 1/9/16 Saturday #4 - HOUSTON 0 #5 - KANSAS CITY ROAD ROAD UNDER FAV FAV AFC 1/9/16 Saturday #3 - CINCINNATI 16 #6 - PITTSBURGH ROAD ROAD UNDER FAV FAV AFC 1/10/16 Sunday #3 - MINNESOTA 9 #6 - SEATTLE ROAD HOME UNDER FAV DOG NFC 1/10/16 Sunday #4 - WASHINGTON 18 #5 - GREEN BAY ROAD ROAD OVER DOG DOG NFC 2016 Season 1/7/17 Saturday #4 - HOUSTON 27 #5 - OAKLAND HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV AFC 1/7/17 Saturday #3 - SEATTLE 26 #6 - DETROIT HOME HOME UNDER FAV FAV NFC 1/8/17 Sunday #4 - GREEN BAY 38 #5 - NY GIANTS HOME HOME OVER FAV FAV NFC 1/8/17 Sunday #3 - PITTSBURGH 30 #6 - MIAMI HOME HOME UNDER FAV FAV AFC 7 SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

9 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly NFL WILD CARD ROUND (101) TENNESSEE [SU:9-7 ATS:8-7-1] AT (102) KANSAS CITY ( ) [SU:10-6 ATS:10-6] JANUARY 6, :30 PM on ESPN - ARROWHEAD STADIUM (KANSAS CITY, MO) Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TENNESSEE [4.1] [6.4] [3.6] [6.3] KANSAS CITY [4.7] [7.6] [4.3] [6.9] While Marcus Mariota s stiff-arm move received a lot of attention for helping Tennessee reach the playoffs for the first time since 2008, he will have to do quite a bit more to have it last more than one game. By any measuring stick, Mariota and the Titans offense had a poor season. Tennessee average just 20.9 PPG and was 23rd in total offense. Mariota had more interceptions than touchdown passes (15 vs. 13), and while that was not all his fault, he is running the offense. The Titans defense should give them a chance in this playoff game, ranked 4th in run defense and 5th in sacks. However, on the road in Kansas City, coach Mike Mularky needs a more daring game plan that enables Mariota to make better use of his ability to get to the edge for run/pass options. Kansas City enters the postseason playing like how it started the season, extremely well. The Chiefs are on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll. The offense is again running efficiently and has averaged 28.6 PPG in the last five outings. There is nothing special about the Kansas City defense, ranked 28th in yards allowed. But during this winning streak, they have forced 12 turnovers and for the season are No.4 in the NFL in yards per point allowed. That means for this contest Andy Reid will look to put the pressure on Tennessee by grabbing an early lead and making the Titans play catch up, something they are not well equipped to do. If K.C. can generate turnovers, the job becomes much easier. GAME TRENDS KANSAS CITY is 9-1 ATS(L10G) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards per carry(cs) TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Less than 6 days rest KANSAS CITY is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) at HOME - Conference games STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 101 TENNESSEE TEN 102 KANSAS CITY SEASON GAME LOGS TENNESSEE RESULTS KANSAS CITY RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU VS JACKSONLLE W W U at DENVER W W O VS LA RAMS L W O VS MIAMI W W U at SAN FRANCISCO L W O VS LA CHARGERS W W U at ARIZONA L L U VS OAKLAND W W U VS HOUSTON W W U at NY JETS L L O at INDIANAPOLIS W W U VS BUFFALO L L U at PITTSBURGH L L O at NY GIANTS L L U VS CINCINNATI W L O at DALLAS L L U VS BALTIMORE W P O VS DENVER W W O at CLEVELAND W L U at OAKLAND L L O VS INDIANAPOLIS W W O VS PITTSBURGH L L U at MIAMI L L U at HOUSTON W W O at HOUSTON L L O VS WASHINGTON W W O VS SEATTLE W W O at LA CHARGERS W W U at JACKSONLLE W W O VS PHILADELPHIA W W O VS OAKLAND L L U at NEW ENGLAND W W O HEAD-TO-HEAD OBSERVATIONS Kansas City and Tennessee, well Houston at the time, last met in the playoffs following the 2013 season, and the quarterbacks for that game were Joe Montana for the Chiefs and Warren Moon for the Oilers. K.C. won that divisional round game Since that time, the teams have faced each other 11 times in regular season games, with road teams holding an 8-3 ATS edge. In fact, in the two most recent meeting, the Titans actually pulled outright upsets at Arrowhead Stadium, the last time a decision in December of Both of those games also went UNDER the total, snapping a string of five straight OVER s in head-to-head play. 8 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

10 Football Weekly NFL WILD CARD ROUND (103) ATLANTA [SU:10-6 ATS:7-9] AT (104) LA RAMS ( ) [SU:11-5 ATS:9-7] JANUARY 6, :15 PM on NBC - LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM (LOS ANGELES, CA) Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ATLANTA [4.3] [7.5] [4.1] [6.2] LA RAMS [4.3] [7.4] [4.7] [6.3] The Atlanta Falcons are out to defend their NFC title and how they might accomplish it will be quite different. Last season Atlanta was the top scoring team in the NFL at 33.8 PPG. This season, for a variety of reasons, much has changed and they are down to 22.1 PPG. Normally, this would keep most teams out of the playoffs, but the Falcons defensive improvement has kept them afloat, going from 25.4 to 19.7 PPG allowed. To knock off Los Angeles, the Atlanta defense has to slow the new No.1 scoring offense in the Rams and take away RB Todd Gurley. For the first time in 19 years, Atlanta was in the Top 10 in total and scoring defense and was 7-1 SU when holding opponent under 100 yards on the ground. With the total at 48.5, Matt Ryan s offense will have to score more than the season average to win, but a strong defensive effort helps. The first order of business is to address the obvious. The Los Angeles Rams know about as much about the playoffs as the Browns do about winning. The Rams have not been to the postseason since 2004 (where they lost to Atlanta). However, in 1999, they went from worst to first and won a Super Bowl, after being away from the playoffs for a decade. This past Monday, coach Sean McVay took on the question of inexperience head on. He talked about the growth of this club and their success came about by past experiences and preparation, and he expects that to continue. L.A. has to be patient and make first downs, which could lead to bigger plays and keep the Dirty Birds out of the end zone to advance. GAME TRENDS ATLANTA is 8-2 ATS(L10G) or more travel miles LA RAMS is ATS(L10G) - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.1 yards per attempt(cs) ATLANTA is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) on ROAD - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per carry(cs) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 103 ATLANTA ATL 104 LA RAMS SEASON GAME LOGS ATLANTA RESULTS LA RAMS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU VS CAROLINA W W U VS SAN FRANCISCO L L O at NEW ORLEANS L L U at TENNESSEE W L O at TAMPA BAY W L U at SEATTLE W W O VS NEW ORLEANS W W U VS PHILADELPHIA L L O VS MINNESOTA L L U at ARIZONA W W O VS TAMPA BAY W W O VS NEW ORLEANS W W U at SEATTLE W W O at MINNESOTA L L U VS DALLAS W W U VS HOUSTON W W U at CAROLINA L L U at NY GIANTS W W O at NY JETS W L O ** ARIZONA W W U at NEW ENGLAND L L U at JACKSONLLE W W O VS MIAMI L L U VS SEATTLE L L U VS BUFFALO L L U at DALLAS W W O at DETROIT W W O at SAN FRANCISCO W L O VS GREEN BAY W W O VS WASHINGTON L L P at CHICAGO W L U VS INDIANAPOLIS W W O HEAD-TO-HEAD OBSERVATIONS It probably won t be sold as a payback opportunity for the Rams as 13 years have passed since the matchup, but they will be getting a chance to avenge their most recent playoff defeat, a decision in Atlanta in the divisional round following the 2004 season. That game sits among many in this head-to-head series that have been high scoring and dominated by the favorites. In fact, going back to 96, 16 of the last 20 games between the Rams and Falcons have gone OVER the total, including the last seven. In all but one of the L14 matchups, the winning team topped the 30-point mark. That has enabled favored teams to win the last 13 games between the teams while going 11-2 ATS. 9 SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

11 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly NFL WILD CARD ROUND (105) BUFFALO [SU:9-7 ATS:8-6-2] AT (106) JACKSONLLE ( ) [SU:10-6 ATS:9-7] JANUARY 7, :00 PM on CBS - EVERBANK FIELD (JACKSONLLE, FL) Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BUFFALO [4.1] [5.9] [4.3] [6.4] JACKSONLLE [4.3] [6.8] [4.3] [5.3] In the cold and callous world of the NFL, it is easy to lose sight of things just beyond winning a Super Bowl. A tip of the hat to the Buffalo Bills for crushing preseason expectations, even those of the front office, who traded away two of their best players in August. Yes, Buffalo is in the playoffs for the first time since 1999 and that is good for football. The Bills are one of two teams still playing with a negative score differential (Tennessee is the other) and might not have their best player. LeSean McCoy was carted off last Sunday with a bad ankle and they would not be 9-7 without him. Buffalo only scored 18.9 PPG when McCoy was healthy and going up against the NFL s No.2 defense will not make life easier. Like Buffalo fans, those in Jacksonville are elated and they will turnout in rare strong numbers for their playoff game. The Jaguars faithful, while excited, still have justifiable concerns. Coach Doug Marone and his immediate bosses decided this team was best equipped to play defense and run the ball. The Jags defense finished second in total defense and points surrendered, but were not as dominate down the stretch as early in the season. In truth, Buffalo does not offer a huge challenge to them, but Jacksonville has more pressure on than the Bills. Offensively, the Jaguars were the No. 1 rushing offense, yet only averaged YPG in the final six contests, after averaging just over 160 YPG in their first 10 games. Plus, after playing three brilliant December games, Blake Bortles had five picks in his last two outings. Trouble or nothing to worry about? GAME TRENDS BUFFALO is ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0 points per game(cs) JACKSONLLE is 2-8 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against lesser offensive teams averaging less than 5.1 yards per play(cs) BUFFALO is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) - Against solid passing defenses yielding less than 5.95 yards per attempt(cs) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 105 BUFFALO JACKSONLLE SEASON GAME LOGS BUFFALO RESULTS JACKSONLLE RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU at MIAMI W W U at TENNESSEE L L U at NEW ENGLAND L L O at SAN FRANCISCO L L O VS MIAMI W W P VS HOUSTON W W O VS INDIANAPOLIS W W U VS SEATTLE W W O VS NEW ENGLAND L L U VS INDIANAPOLIS W W U at KANSAS CITY W W U at ARIZONA L L O at LA CHARGERS L L O at CLEVELAND W W U VS NEW ORLEANS L L O VS LA CHARGERS W L U at NY JETS L L O VS CINCINNATI W W U VS OAKLAND W W O at INDIANAPOLIS W W U VS TAMPA BAY W P O VS LA RAMS L L O at CINCINNATI L L U at PITTSBURGH W W U at ATLANTA W W U at NY JETS L L O VS DENVER W W O ** BALTIMORE W W O at CAROLINA L P U VS TENNESSEE L L O VS NY JETS W W U at HOUSTON W W U HEAD-TO-HEAD OBSERVATIONS By now you have probably been well-versed in the thought that Buffalo and Jacksonville are each making their first playoff appearances in many years. But did you know that the teams have actually faced each other one time previously in the postseason? That game was in the 96 Wild Card round and the Jaguars pulled a upset in Buffalo as 8.5-point underdogs. That was actually the first ever head-to-head meeting between the franchises, and the shoe is on the other foot this time around, with Jacksonville hosting the game as a similar level favorite. Since that initial meeting, the teams have squared off 14 times, and road teams have held the most distinctive series edge, going ATS. Buffalo owns a slight 8-6 SU & ATS edge as well. In addition, the last five games between the teams have sailed OVER the total, producing 55 PPG on totals averaging just THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

12 Football Weekly NFL WILD CARD ROUND (107) CAROLINA [SU:11-5 ATS:9-6-1] AT (108) NEW ORLEANS ( ) [SU:11-5 ATS:9-7] JANUARY 7, :30 PM on FOX - MERCEDES-BENZ SUPERDOME (NEW ORLEANS, LA) Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CAROLINA [4.3] [6.1] [4.0] [6.7] NEW ORLEANS [4.7] [7.8] [4.4] [6.5] Carolina will try and become the eighth team in 47 years to win a playoff game after losing both regular season contests to same opponent. Over this period, there has been 20 such instances, so while the odds are not in the Panthers favor (35 percent), it is not an impossible situation either. For Carolina to advance, it will have to start with Cam Newton playing well. He was completely off target in last week s loss at Atlanta (14 for 34, three picks) and did not play well in either setback to New Orleans. Newton was 34 for 53 passing, for only 350 yards and tossed three interceptions in those two meetings. In fact, Newton has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in five of his last six contests, and seven of his last nine overall. One can only assume his right shoulder is ailing again, which limits Carolina. New Orleans won the NFC South, but they were not super ecstatic after losing to Tampa Bay late. Still, the Saints got this home game and it is not like they do not understand how to beat Carolina. The formula will remain the same, run the ball against the Panthers with deception, using the power game between the tackles and going outside with RB Alvin Kamara. This sets up the playaction passing game with Drew Brees, which is normally quite effective at home. Defensively, the Saints will look to stuff the run and play tight coverage on Carolina receivers, since Newton has been lacking in accuracy, which could lead to turnovers. New Orleans has covered six straight against the Panthers. GAME TRENDS CAROLINA is 9-3 ATS(L3Y) - AS underdog of 7 or less points NEW ORLEANS is 4-6 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.6 yards per play(cs) CAROLINA is 10-1 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 14.3 yards per point(cs) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 107 CAROLINA UNDER NEW ORLEANS SEASON GAME LOGS CAROLINA RESULTS NEW ORLEANS RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU at ATLANTA L L U at TAMPA BAY L L O VS TAMPA BAY W L U VS ATLANTA W W U VS GREEN BAY W W O VS NY JETS W L O VS MINNESOTA W W O at ATLANTA L L U at NEW ORLEANS L L O VS CAROLINA W W O at NY JETS W W O at LA RAMS L L U VS MIAMI W W O VS WASHINGTON W L O VS ATLANTA W W U at BUFFALO W W O at TAMPA BAY W W U VS TAMPA BAY W W U at CHICAGO L L U VS CHICAGO W W U VS PHILADELPHIA L L O at GREEN BAY W W U at DETROIT W W O VS DETROIT W W O at NEW ENGLAND W W O ** MIAMI W W U VS NEW ORLEANS L L O at CAROLINA W W O VS BUFFALO W P U VS NEW ENGLAND L L O at SAN FRANCISCO W W U at MINNESOTA L L O HEAD-TO-HEAD OBSERVATIONS Being NFC South Division rivals, obviously the Panthers and Saints have a rich head-to-head history against one another, however, this will be the first time the teams meet in the postseason. It is said that beating a team three times is one of the most difficult things to do for a NFL team, and that is the challenge facing the Saints on Sunday, as they took the two regular season meetings SU & ATS, topping the 30-point mark on both occasions. In the most recent game in the first weekend of December, host New Orleans (-6) won 31-21, snapping a string of six straight spreadcovering wins by underdogs in the head-to-head series. This has also been a high-scoring series, with six of the last seven games overall surpassing the posted total, as well as six of the last seven games between the two played in New Orleans. Those games at the Superdome produced 64.1 PPG. Not to be overlooked, HC Sean Payton s team has won six straight ATS versus the Panthers. 11 SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

13 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (151) ALABAMA ( ) [SU:12-1 ATS:6-7] VS (152) GEORGIA [SU:13-1 ATS:10-4] JANUARY 8, :45 PM on ESPN - MERCEDES-BENZ STADIUM (ATLANTA, GA)[NEUT] Offensive Statistics Offensive Statistics Defensive Defensive Statistics Statistics Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ALABAMA (4) [5.8] [8.4] [2.7] [5.3] GEORGIA (3) [6.0] [8.9] [3.7] [5.8] This All-SEC championship will delight many and frustrate others. Those from the South will be busting with pride knowing their conference will be the kings of the college football world again. While those suffering from SEC fatigue will enjoy the contest at face value and little else. Also, compared to when Alabama met LSU for the championship in 2012, this will not be a rematch like that game was, since the Crimson Tide and Georgia have not played since Alabama (12-1, 6-7 ATS) is favored and has restored its defensive reputation in whipping Clemson. The time off brought back the speed and quickness that was missing much of November for the Tide. That will be the focal point for Alabama, looking to curtail the fantastic Georgia ground attack, led by Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. If Nick Saban s defense wins on first and second down, they have the pass rush, even against a very good Bulldogs offensive line, to wreak havoc in the Georgia backfield. However, Alabama did suffer a couple more injures to their defensive front seven on Monday night. With the traditional one week between games, knowing the health of those players could matter towards the outcome. Jalen Hurts will probably never be invited to New York for a Heisman ceremony, yet he is the steadying force in Bama s offense. Hurts has ample talent around him, but brings all the elements together. Sometimes he just has to keep handing off to a fine stable of running backs and other times locate wide receiver Calvin Ridley for big plays or touchdowns. More often than not, when everything breaks down for Alabama offense, it is Hurts who makes all the right plays with his legs and move the chains or scores an important touchdown. Georgia (13-1, 10-4 ATS) does rely on its stellar offensive line and dynamic duo at running back to move the ball. However, since the loss to Auburn, the Bulldogs have also come to depend on QB Jake Fromm. The freshman is unflappable, as he showed in the Rose Bowl, where he was 20 of 29 passes for 210 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. As Kirk Herbstreit mentioned in telecast (and those of us saw at the same time), Fromm coolly called audibles where he saw real advantages in the scheme, which led to big plays against Oklahoma. There will be fewer such chances against Alabama s defense, but Fromm will be very aware of what he needs to do on the field. If the Georgia defense plays a lot like Alabama, it is not hard to understand with coach Kirby Smart and his staff in charge. After being befuddled by Baker Mayfield and the Sooners offense for a half, the Dawgs defense dominated the second portion of the CFB semi-final. What the Georgia defense will look to do is stand up the Crimson Tide linemen and have linebackers fill with gap integrity. The left side of the Bulldogs defense (Alabama s right) will be on full alert, since that is where Hurts is most effective as a runner. There will be talk until game time about Saban being 11-0 SU against former assistants, but don t expect Smart to be out-smarted by Saban. GAME TRENDS GEORGIA is 12-6 ATS(L18G) - In Bowl Games ALABAMA is 6-11 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry(cs) GEORGIA is 11-2 OVER(L13G) - Against stout rushing defenses yielding less than 3.0 yards per(cs) 12 HEAD TO HEAD OBSERVATIONS For as much as Alabama & Georgia are SEC mates, this year s national championship contest won t have anywhere near the familiarity that the 2012 game between Alabama & LSU did. Those teams are bitter rivals in the West Division of the SEC and seemingly fighting for this championship space on an annual basis. The Tide and Bulldogs have actually only faced each other six times in the last 16 seasons, the most recent meeting having been in Alabama won that game in Athens, and it was the first time in that 16-year span that one of the headto-head games went UNDER the total. Overall, in those last six meetings, underdogs are 5-1 ATS, boasting a 4-game spread-covering winning streak heading into Monday s title tilt. Georgia also holds a 4-2 ATS edge with the outright results being split 3-3. The most important clash between the teams in recent memory was in the 2012 SEC championship game, a contest won by Alabama as an 8.5-point favorite. THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

14 Football Weekly CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON GAME LOGS ALABAMA (4) RESULTS GEORGIA (3) RESULTS DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE SU ATS OU ** CLEMSON W W U ** OKLAHOMA W W O at AUBURN L L U ** AUBURN W W U VS MERCER W W U at GEORGIA TECH W W U at MISSISSIPPI ST W L O VS KENTUCKY W W O * indicates Best Bet (BB) VS LSU W L U at AUBURN L L O VS TENNESSEE W W O VS SOUTH CAROLINA W L U VS ARKANSAS W L U ** FLORIDA W W O at TEXAS A&M W L U VS MISSOURI W L O VS MISSISSIPPI W W O at VANDERBILT W W O at VANDERBILT W W O at TENNESSEE W W U VS COLORADO ST W L O VS MISSISSIPPI ST W W U VS FRESNO ST W L U VS SAMFORD W L U ** FLORIDA ST W W U at NOTRE DAME W W U VS APPALACHIAN ST W W U STRENGTH RATINGS BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 151 ALABAMA GEORGIA PICKS Jim (50%) (51%)* Jason (54%) (53%)* Doug (48%) (50%)* Matt (50%) (51%)* Power Rating (52%) Effective Strength (51%) Monday, January 8, (151) ALABAMA vs. (152) GEORGIA (+4.5) Bettors Ratings (47%) Consensus (50%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) Georgia* Alabama* Georgia* Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Monday, January 8, (151) ALABAMA vs. (152) GEORGIA - TOTAL (45.5) OVER OVER UNDER OVER* OVER UNDER OVER OVER Jim says To me it looks like there was a 3-point adjustment made to this title game s pointspread after the completion of the two semifinal games. Is it warranted? I don t think so. While Georgia s win was not as dominant as Alabama s, the two games were completely different in terms of style and preparation. Alabama had a major chip on its shoulder for Clemson, and was highly motivated for winning that game. Obviously the Bulldogs were motivated to win their game too, but Alabama s focus was as good as I ve seen it. Even though this is a championship contest, I believe there is a chance of an Alabama letdown. That might sound strange to say for a game this big, but Alabama and Nick Saban certainly don t boast the same vitriol for the Bulldogs and Kirby Smart that they did for Clemson. Besides the line being a couple points higher than I believed, there is the fact that SEC teams are 6-0 ATS in the national championship game as underdogs. There also seems to be little to no edge being given to Georgia for playing in Atlanta in a stadium they owned just two games ago. As far as the schemes go, I believe that Georgia s front lines are comparable, if not better, than Alabama s, and that the Bulldogs boast bigger play capability on offense. I think Georgia is a live underdog here and I don t see any reason this game should have surpassed the field goal pointspread threshold. Jason says if there is one that stood out to me in the two CFP semifinal games, it s that Alabama had the most dominant unit on any of the four teams, that of course being its defense. That said, I don t expect them to dominate Georgia s offense in a similar fashion, because the Bulldogs should be able to throw the ball more successfully than Clemson did. In fact, I believe this game is going to be entirely different than the Tide-Tigers matchup on New Year s Day. Five of the last six matchups between these teams have gone OVER the total, and with the history of the SEC neutral title games going over the total often, I think this game will follow a similar pattern. Alabama blew several chances to put points on the board against Clemson, and the Tide does have the talent to play far better offensively than it did in that game. In fact, with the way Oklahoma s running gashed Georgia s front seven, I would think that Alabama should be able to generate a very potent and balanced offensive attack. If you ask me, Alabama was the best team in the country all year long and only succumbed to Auburn under the stress of numerous injury problems. I expect the Tide to roll in this game, let s say Doug says I m sure you have heard all the talk about Nick Saban being 11-0 SU against former assistances, I get it, it s a thing. He s beaten those teams by an average of more 28 points, which tells me he s had absolutely superior talent. While Saban might well make it 12-0, the talent differential will not be as far apart taking on Kirby Smart and Georgia. Both defenses are capable of stacking up the other s offense. Is Alabama s better, yes, but the Bulldogs have just as many major playmakers on that side of the ball. The offenses are very comparable and rely on running, hitting shorter passes and taking deep shots for big plays. Saban knows Smart and Smart knows Saban. Unless one team has +2 edge in turnovers, I ll make the call at and let you decide who wins. SIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 13

15 AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly FOOTBALL LINE MOVES Welcome back to another edition of Line Moves, looking at all the biggest betting moves in the NFL Playoffs. Besides this, we also offer free picks (12-2 ATS last week) on these contests. We also have a quick thought on CFP championship. Additionally, nothing much happening yet on NFL totals, but we expect at least two games to have line moves by at least a full point by kickoff. COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP The day after the release, not much was happening, with Alabama at -4.5 and the total at 45. The side did not budge and unless injuries or suspensions happen, look for 4.5 to hold up. If there is any change, it could be the total. Noticed a few sportsbooks making minor adjustment to 45.5 and that could be adjusted number, with a few 46 s possible. NFL (101) TENNESSEE at (102) KANSAS CITY 4:30 ET ESPN Football bettors are understandably weary of Tennessee and moved them from +7 to +8. With the Kansas City offense back on track in scoring 28.5 points a game in their last five outings, how the Titans keep pace unless they play great defense is a real concern. Tennessee is averaging only 18.4 PPG in their past seven ballgames and they have been underachievers in this department all season. Don t be surprised if this line goes up higher, with the Chiefs closing at -8.5 or -9 a real possibility as Tennessee is 1-8 ATS off a home win. One aspect to keep in mind however, K.C. is 2-12 ATS in most recent playoff games. Our View- Lean Kansas City covers from -7.5 to -8.5 against Buffalo. While the Jags might be jumpy at first seeing all those covered empty seats filled with actual cheering fans, this is a good matchup for them. Even with a healthy LeSean McCoy, Buffalo did not figure to score much and make him less than 100 percent, a further edge for stout Jacksonville defense. The Bills defense forced a ton of turnovers early, but that slowed in the second half. Unless Buffalo can generate at least three miscues, this is poor matchup for them. Our View- Jacksonville covers (107) CAROLINA at (108) NEW ORLEANS 4:30 ET FOX New Orleans has won and covered both battles with Carolina and needs a third to advance. The fact is, the winner of this game is most likely facing Philadelphia, who has played like a shell of itself since losing Carson Wentz. That means this winner, unless Atlanta upsets L.A., will have a legitimate shot of reaching NFC title game. New Orleans has been bumped from -5.5 to -6.5 and the concerns about Cam Newton shoulder appear real. If the Saints take early control in The Dome, they should be moving on. Our View- Lean New Orleans covers RECORDS NFL Best Bets NFL Leans Bowls (8-2 last week) (103) ATLANTA at (104) L.A. RAMS 8:15 ET NBC The most curious aspect of this Wild Card clash before the game starts is what the attendance will be like. Will the Rams bandwagon start to finally fill up? The other part that matters even more to those of us betting football is, are the L.A. Rams really deserving of moving up from -4.5 to -6 point favorites? That is more than a fair question given the Rams lack of experience on this stage and Matt Ryan and many of teammates very familiar with this time of year. If Atlanta plays even in the first quarter, that could set the stage for a tight contest. Our View- Lean Atlanta covers 14 (105) BUFFALO at (106) JACKSONLLE 1:00 ET CBS Jacksonville, losers of two straight, no problem. Actually that is the opinion of those placing bets, shifting the Jaguars THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION