QB Cam Newton $8,600 21.97 46.5 25.00-3.5 ALL Newton brings the weekly floor that comes from his goalline involvement and his usage in the running game. He brings a weekly high floor to the table which is even better when facing a team like the Seahawks are aren't all that easy to run against. QB Andrew Luck $8,400 22.23 51.0 29.50-8.0 Hybrid Luck has been smashing on a regular basis in tough matchups and now we get him in a legit smash spot. This game sports a lofty 51 point total with the Colts installed as 7.5 point favorites. Miami is at the bottom half of the league in all defensive categories. The primary risk is that the Dolphins can't score and suck so bad vs RB which will combine to nudge the Colts to lean on the run. QB Tom Brady $8,200 20.10 47.5 28.75-10.0 GPP I'm not sure Brady is going to have to do a whole lot to lay the smack down on the Jets here. Pats installed as 10 point favorites in this one and the big issue is the return of Sony Michel. The Patriots will often lean on the run when they are dominating the scoreboard and running at will. This is a home game for the Jets and they have McCown at the helm so there is an outside chance that they keep it competitive which is why Brady is more of a tournament only play. Stack with Edelman, Gordon or White RB Philip Rivers $8,300 19.09 44.0 28.50-13.0 Hybrid With Gordon potentially hobbled or out, everyone will flock to Austin Ekeler rightfully as the superpunt freesquare of the entire slate. That makes total sense and we will all do the same. I want to look deeper however and my take is that with Gordon on the shelf not demanding all of the high value opportunities for the Chargers they may lean on Rivers a bit more the usual. Assuming that is the case, Rivers in this fairly cake matchup should look to Keenan Allen who will avoid top Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson on the outside. Rivers has had a reasonably high floor all season bottoming out at 15 points in their worst game. That was one where Gordo was taking all the tuddies. If Gordo is out, the outlook for Rivers improves. QB Carson Wentz $7,700 19.78 47.0 26.00-5.0 Hybrid I'm looking for Wentz to bounce back at home after the debacle at the Saints last week. I'm still a bit shell shocked from watching it which renders him a scary play in cash games but an ideal low ownership tournament pivot. Stack with Ertz and/or Alshon. Giving a nod to Tate as well QB Lamar Jackson $7,400 17.07 42.5 26.50-10.5 CASH Jackson's floor is very solid in this matchup. He rushed 26 times last week and wound up with over 100 yards on the ground. He didn't do much in the passing game and I'm concerned about his ceiling in the matchup but the floor is sound for cash QB Jameis Winston $7,500 20.23 54.0 28.50-3.0 ALL Did you really think you'd get away with not seeing a Tampa QB on the list this week? This game carries a massive 54 point total and is essentially the game to target on this slate. It's not that the 49ers are terrible vs the pass. They have Richard Sherman who has been borderline shut down this season but in general they are not a scary unit. Sherman doesn't shadow and probably won't be on Evans for most of this game so nothing to fear there. Evans is the ideal stack with Winston tournment option this week. Obviously there is a chance for another QB benching on this team. I didn't think they would have the balls to go back to Winston after benching him a few weeks back but here we are.
RB Saquon Barkley $9,000 19.98 47.0 21.00 5.0 ALL Zeke smoked the Eagles offense at home a few weeks back. Barkley is coming off a 25+ touch game. I expect more of the same as the Giants should lean on the run to neutralize the Eagles pass rush that sacked Eli 5 times in the first meeting. RB Melvin Gordon III $8,900 20.26 44.0 28.50-13.0 Injured?? The most recent reports on Gordon are that he is questionable and a true game time decision. I'm not playing him this week at all because I'm not taking chances on a paying top dollar for a GTD RB in a potential blow out situation. It's a stay away situation for me. If Gordon is inactive, Austin Eckler becomes the chalk top value on the entire slate. RB Christian McCaffrey $8,400 19.30 46.5 25.00-3.5 GPP Brings a high usage and touch floor to the table every week. This is a solid matchup on paper. The question of if they will use him around the goalline remains. If I'm paying up this high at RB I wand to do my best to make sure I'm locking in points with the player choice. RB James Conner $7,900 18.23 46.5 24.75-3.0 HYBRID I'd like the Connor play a bit more if this was a home game for the Steelers. Denver is generally a good overall defense but they have allowed the 23rd most fantasy points to opposing RB's. The elite tier of the RB position this week is missing some staple plays because of the bye week combined with the Thanksgiving slate. RB Nick Chubb $7,500 15.60 46.5 21.75 3.0 CORE Bengals have one of the worst run defenses in the league giving up 29.5 FD Points to the position on average. Look for another 20+ touch effort from Chubb in a plus matchup. RB Marlon Mack $7,000 14.01 51.0 29.50-8.0 CORE RB Phillip Lindsay $6,800 12.78 46.5 21.75 3.0 GPP RB Sony Michel $6,600 13.11 47.5 28.75-10.0 HYBRID RB Matt Breida $6,400 13.19 54.0 25.50 3.0 ALL RB Josh Adams $5,700 9.82 47.0 26.00-5.0 Punt RB Gus Edwards $5,300 9.56 42.5 26.50-10.5 Punt Mack is fairly priced here in a very strong on paper matchup. He continues to work as the primary grinder for the Colts. He hasn't done much in the passing game at all as the Colts bring in Hines for those types of plays. This is a great setup for Mack on paper facing a very bad Miami run defense but with a lower total touch floor then someone like Chubb One of the appeals of using Lindsay right now is that he's just really good at football. He doesn't get a ton of opportunities each week but he makes the most of them. His Fanduel salary is a bit high in my mind compared to his expected workload. I would expect Marlon Mack to get more opportunities in his game. The difference is Lindsay has more explosive potential. He's seen as many as 7 targets in a game earlier this season. That's not something we can rely on however because he's had some 2-4 target games as well. This game sets up well for Michel. He's not going to get passing game work but the Patriots are likely to be leading this one throughout. I like stacking him with Pats defense. Health and in game injury remain a concern as does the Giants anemic overall offense I want a piece of this high total projection game and Brieda is a significantly underpriced way to get that exposure. With Moestert gone Brieda is the defacto running and passing down RB for the 49ers. Alfred Morris has been completely ineffective so they really don't have anyone else to bring in that can threaten his workload. They use him in the passing game and in the run just like the higher priced RB's for the most part and this matchup and game total is a great combination. Adams is interesting as a pay down option in that I think he has a very legit shot to get a TD this week. Even 2 TD upside. He got 7 carries and 6 targets in the passing game last week. That was in a very negative gamescript scenario. This week projects as a much closer game that we can expect the Eagles to go back to their run heavy ways. I can't be sure he will see over 15 touches this week but its not out of the question at all. Adams is one of a large number of attractive pay down options at RB this week. Last week Edwards came seemingly out of nowhere to snatch the primary RB job out of the clutches of Alex Collins. It's never a lock that a player like Edwards repeats a performance like that but Collins has popped up on the injury report with a DNP. My biggest concern going in to this week was not knowing if the Edwards usage from last week was a one off. The going back to Collins risk is much lower now and moreso if this injury keeps Collins out of the game. Biggest concern here is the lack of passing game work combined with the concern that Lamar Jackson will vulture his tuddies. I actually like the idea of pairing up Gus and Jackson in some cash/hybrid lineups to lock in all of the Ravens scoring offense facing the Raiders bottom in the league run and overall defense
Antonio Brown $8,500 17.05 46.5 24.75-3.0 HYBRID This isn't the best on paper matchup for Brown and he hasn't shown the overall ceiling this season that we have seen from him in the past. Broncos have been slightly above average vs 's this season as well. That said, with limited pay up options and with the Broncos best corner likely shadowing JuJu, Brown brings his usual high floor to the table on a slate where the position is brutally difficult Odell Beckham Jr. $8,500 16.72 47.0 21.00 5.0 ALL Between Brown and OBJ, Odell gets the "best matchup" prize. The Eagles have given up the most fantasy points in the league to enemy 's this season. He brings one of the better DFS Army Ratings of the slate to the table for this one as well. Mike Evans $7,900 14.53 54.0 28.50-3.0 HYBRID The narrative was always that Evans does better in Fitzpatrick games. I think the reality is that he is simply an up and down player that isn't as consistent as some of the higher priced 's but carries a similar ceiling. This is a ceiling type of game for Evans. The 49ers best corner, Richard Sherman, works the opposite side of the field from Evans and rarely shadows. 49ers CB Ahkello Witherspoon is allowing a 122.9 passer rating on passes thrown his way. Not good. Evans brings a lower floor then someone like OBJ to the table so this is more of a stack with Winston Hybrid play rather then a stand alone core play at Keenan Allen $7,700 14.25 44.0 28.50-13.0 HYBRID Allen operates out of the slot for the Chargers and should avoid Patrick Peterson coverage in this game. The Cardinals lack the offensive firepower to compete in this game and the path of least resistance for the Chargers will probably be leaning on the run. In a slate with very few blue chip options at, Allen is playable but not someone I'm excited about T.Y. Hilton $7,500 13.53 51.0 29.50-8.0 HYBRID Hilton is coming off a smash week and I'm thinking he will be very high owned at home with recency bias in full swing. Dolphins aren't terrible vs 's but this matchup is not intimidating either. Hilton will probably see a healthy dose of Xavien Howard coverage in this game. Howard has been more "above average" then shutdown at the CB position so far this season. I'm stacking Hilton with Luck in hybrids Julian Edelman $7,400 12.30 47.5 28.75-10.0 HYBRID Stot recievers generally crush the Jets. Edelman is more of a Draftkings PPR play generally and he is never a lock to get into the endzone. Jets Slot CB Buster Skrine is flat out horrible this year giving up a 109 passer rating on passes thrown his way. JuJu Smith- Schuster $7,200 13.34 46.5 24.75-3.0 GPP People will shy away from Schuster in this matchup because of the name value of Broncos slot CB, Chris Harris. He's been good but not great this season grading out as just slightly above average and by no means a matchup to fear. Emmanuel Sanders $6,900 12.28 46.5 21.75 3.0 HYBRID Sanders should avoid Joe Haden's shut down coverage in this game. Haden has been a legit stud this season but he rarely moves into the slot. This Steelers defense is solid but not spectacular when it comes to stopping opposing 's. The entire Denver pass offense has been shit the past few weeks and Sanders hasn't done much. His salary has been steadily dropping and comes in at one of the lowest numbers in weeks. A closer examination shows that Sanders decline in production came against high quality pass defenses including the Chargers and Texans. This matchup at home isn't easy but ownership should be lower then usual on Sanders with recency bias in full force
Josh Gordon $6,800 11.53 47.5 28.75-10.0 HYBRID Patriots should have their way with the Jets this week. The matchup isn't great for Gordon as the Jets tend to play tighter defense vs outside 's while getting crushed by slot 's Tyler Boyd $6,800 11.96 46.5 24.75-3.0 HYBRID Everyone got burned by Boyd chalk these past two weeks with Green on the shelf. Now Green comes back with a questionable health status. The most likely result is that Green absorbes the coverage focus from the Browns opening things back up for Boyd. I like going back to players that burned everyone the previous few weeks. This matchup is spectacular on paper with Boyd likely to avoid Denzel Ward shadow coverage. Doug Baldwin $6,500 10.16 46.5 21.50 3.5 HYBRID Baldwin draws the best matchup of the Seattle corps getting to face Captain Munnerlyn out of the slot. The Captain is allowing a 100+ QBR on passes thrown in his direction. More importantly, shut down corner James Bradberry operates exclusively on the outside which would naturally funnel targets away from whomever of Lockett or Moore he winds up covering. Volume has been a concern for Baldwin and the pass catchers in this Seattle offense as a whole with Wilson rarely surpassing 30 attempts in a game Tyler Lockett $6,300 9.63 46.5 21.50 3.5 GPP Lockett draws a tougher on paper matchup in this one where he will likely see a healthy dose of James Bradberry in coverage. He's always a deep play threat but the floor is rockbottom. GPP stack with Wilson only Jarvis Landry $6,100 11.53 46.5 21.75 3.0 HYBRID Landry has dudded in some solid matchups the past few weeks including home games vs Atlanta and KC. Bengals represent an even better on paper matchup for opposing pass catchers. Landry's salary has plumetted and on a slate with very few blue chip options, Landry is once again in play as a value that should see a floor of 6-7 targets in a plus matchup D.J. Moore $5,800 8.84 46.5 25.00-3.5 HYBRID Moore draws a solid matchup in this game against the burnable Shaq Griffin. Passing game volume is a weekly concern with the Panthers but we got on the Moore train early last week and it paid off nicely for us. Recency bias is firmly in play here but the situation remails solid for Moore. Chris Godwin $5,500 7.96 54.0 28.50-3.0 GPP Godwin will need a TD to make value. He shares snaps with Humphries and Jackson in this Bucs offense so volume remains a concern. Kenny Stills $5,300 8.36 51.0 21.50 8.0 GPP Stills has always had a nice connection with Tannehill and Miami really has no one else to throw to in this game. Kendrick Bourne $4,900 3.98 54.0 25.50 3.0 VALUE It looks like Marquise Goodwin will be out this week thrusting Bourne in to top play status. Bourne got 6 targets in Mullins debut game. This is an easier matchup facing a league worst Bucs pass defense. The 3900 salary on DK is cheap enough that it won't take much for him to make or smash salary based expectations.
TE Zach Ertz $7,600 13.96 47.0 26.00-5.0 ALL TE George Kittle $7,500 11.67 54.0 25.50 3.0 ALL Ertz should bounce back from a rough game vs the Saints where the entire Eagles offense was shit. One of the metrics from the DFS Army research station that I like to use is the "Catch % Allowed" metric. The Giants are allowing a 65% catch rate to TE's which is better then average vs the position, but an above average 7.8 targets and 5.1 receptions per game. The Saints (last week's opponent) allow a 58% catch rate (one of the best in the league) and just 37 Yards per game to the position. The point is that the Giants aren't quite as good as the Saints were vs TE's so this matchup shouldn't be feared. The matchup for Kittle is much better on paper which makes Ertz more of a pivot off Kittle then a stand alone matchup play for me. The pricetag for Kittle is a little tough to stomach here, with Mullins at QB, but the matchup is spectacular. The Bucs bleed points to enemy TE's. Everyone will be rostering Brate chalk this week so paying up at TE creates a nice differentiation TE Vance McDonald $5,500 7.33 46.5 24.75-3.0 Hybrid TE Jack Doyle $5,500 8.58 51.0 29.50-8.0 Hybrid Broncos have been attackable via the TE position all season. If I'm paying down at TE, Vance is one of a few TE's with similar risk reward profiles in this salary range. Most people will look to pay all the way down to Brate which leaves the middle range of the TE position group underowned in tournaments Doyle has yet to really show much since his return from injury or this season as a whole but he remains a body that is out there for 70% of the snaps in a high powered passing offense. You would think that at some point he will start to produce TE Cameron Brate $4,400 6.64 54.0 28.50-3.0 Hybrid/V ALUE Brate will be the chalk punt at TE this week. O.J. Howard is out for the season and Brate is the only game in town at TE for the Bucs. Brate shouldn't be expected to put up massive volume or yardage numbers but he has a solid redzone role and a nice repetoire with Winston. He's also a cheap way to get exposure to the highest total game on the slate. Brate is relatively cheaper on Fanduel then on Draftkings this week so I'll clip the coupon and eat the chalk on Fanduel in cash type games Baltimore Ravens $5,000 10.96 42.5 26.50-10.5 ALL Raiders performed ok on the road last week, now they travel all the way to the East Coast to a nasty environment to take on the top rated Ravens defense. It's not going to end well Los Angeles Chargers $4,900 11.78 44.0 28.50-13.0 ALL Cardinals offense is terrible and I expect the Chargers to light them up offensively which means more passing an more potential mistakes. Jacksonville Jaguars $4,800 11.22 37.0 20.00-3.0 ALL I prefer defenses at home but Josh Allen is not very good and the Jags Defense is really solid. Indianapolis Colts $4,400 7.34 51.0 29.50-8.0 GPP Return of Tannehill downgrades this matchup for me a bit. New England Patriots $4,100 11.70 47.5 28.75-10.0 ALL Darnold is a turnover machine sporting 11TD's and 14INT's so far this season. He's basically good for 1-2 turnovers a game Buffalo Bills $4,000 6.55 37.0 17.00 3.0 HYBRID I prefer using Jaguars Defense in this contest but the Bills have been solid and the Jags are know to turn the ball over frequently. Denver Broncos $3,300 6.64 46.5 21.75 3.0 GPP Cheapest viable home defense on the slate