2013 5 200 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 5 2013 Tot. No. 200 Divisia 1 2 1. 102249 2. 100081 Divisia 1986 ~ 2008 Divisia Divisia 1994 Divisia C921 A 1000-4149 2013 05-0063 - 07 2013-01 - 11 2013-05 - 15 YJRC - 2013-21 1980 - Urbanization Aging Education and Human Capital Based on Divisia Analysis LIANG Yun-ling 1 JIA Na 2 1. School of Business China University of Petroleum Beijing 102249 China 2. China Center for Human Capital and Labor Market Research Central University of Finance and Economics Beijing 100081 China Abstract We investigate the effects of education urbanization and aging on human capital using the approach of construction and decomposition of Divisia indices. We find that the Divisia indices based on education and location grow faster than those based on gender and age with the rapid expand of education and urbanization from 1986 to 2008. Through the decomposition the contribution of education and urbanization is bigger than that of gender and age especially after the 63
year of 1994. The various groups contribute to human capital differently. The contribution of cohorts with primary and junior middle schooling decreases while the higher education has a rising contribution to the human capital growth. Keywords Divisia index education urbanization aging human capital 1 2 ~ 4 5 ~ 6 7 20 90 1% 1 8 ~ 10 11 ~ 16 17 ~ 18 19 20 21 Divisia Divisia Jorgenson-Fraumeni 22 Divisia 1 64
Divisia Divisia Jorgenson-Fraumeni Divisia Divisia 23 DlnK = s e a l v珋 s e a l dlnl s e a l 1 K L s e a l s e a l d dlnk = lnk t - lnk t - 1 Mi s e a l v珋 s e a l = 1 2 v s e a l t + v s e a l t - 1 v s e a l = 3 s e a l Mi s e a l Mi s e a l Jorgenson-Fraumeni b MItg t = t bdlnk t b Divisia MIQ t = exp MItg t MI b MI b Jorgenson-Fraumeni Divisia Divisia Divisia 1 2 4 5 dlnk e = e 珋 v e dlnl e 6 v珋 e = 1 2 v Mi e e y + v e y - 1 v e = 7 e Mi e Divisia v珋 e a dlnk e a = e a v珋 e a dlnl e a = 1 2 v e a y + v e a y - 1 v e a = Mi e a Divisia 1 2 e a Mi e a 4 8 9 6 4 Divisia dlnq e dlnq e = dlnk e - dlnl 10 1 2 b Divisia Divisia 65
Divisia dlnq e a dlnq e a = dlnk e a dlnl - dlnq e - dlnq a 11 dlnq s a e l = dlnk - dlnl - dlnq s a e - dlnq s a l - - dlnq s a - dlnq s e - - dlnq s - dlnq a - dlnq e - dlnq l 12 dlnk - dlnl = dlnq s a e l + dlnq s a e + dlnq s a l + + dlnq s a + dlnq s e + + dlnq s + dlnq a + dlnq e + dlnq l 13 13 Divisia Divisia Divisia dlnk male = Σ s = male Σ e Σ a Σ l 珋 v s e a l dlnl s e a l dlnk female = Σ s = female Σ e Σ a Σ l v珋 s e a l dlnl s e a l 15 14 1 Divisia 1985 100. 00 100. 00 100. 00 100. 00 100. 00 24 1986 101. 26 101. 47 101. 32 102. 05 101. 97 1987 102. 54 102. 97 102. 72 104. 26 104. 01 1985 ~ 2008 1988 104. 00 105. 77 104. 43 106. 51 106. 49 1989 105. 17 108. 56 106. 04 108. 59 108. 55 Divisia 1990 106. 25 111. 20 107. 61 110. 45 110. 34 1991 106. 55 112. 95 108. 66 112. 11 111. 27 1992 106. 73 114. 53 109. 55 113. 61 112. 16 1993 106. 70 116. 21 110. 31 115. 06 113. 04 1994 106. 71 117. 83 111. 05 116. 48 114. 75 1995 106. 58 119. 74 111. 63 117. 81 116. 10 Divisia 1. Divisia 1985 100 Divisia 1 1 1985 ~ 2008 1986 ~ 2008 1. 41% Divisia 0. 64% - 0. 05% 1 Divisia 66 1996 107. 58 122. 23 112. 85 121. 26 120. 62 1997 108. 41 124. 95 114. 01 124. 74 125. 34 1998 108. 57 127. 70 115. 06 128. 11 128. 84 1999 108. 28 130. 46 115. 95 131. 37 131. 71 2000 107. 69 133. 60 116. 79 134. 53 134. 24 2001 106. 04 134. 72 116. 79 136. 77 134. 37 2002 105. 05 135. 69 116. 85 139. 14 135. 34 2003 104. 15 136. 36 116. 83 141. 35 137. 70 2004 102. 39 136. 84 116. 57 142. 80 137. 55 2005 100. 14 137. 24 115. 97 143. 67 136. 11 2006 99. 69 138. 68 115. 96 144. 76 136. 75 2007 99. 44 140. 02 115. 96 145. 96 138. 06 2008 98. 78 141. 01 115. 77 146. 55 138. 40
Divisia 1. 66% 1. 49% Divisia 1994 25 1994 20 90 1 Divisia Divisia Divisia 1999 Divisia 2 2 Divisia % 1986 ~ 2008-0. 05 1. 49 0. 64 1. 66 1. 41 1986 ~ 1994 0. 72 1. 82 1. 16 1. 69 1. 53 1995 ~ 2008-0. 55 1. 28 0. 30 1. 64 1. 34 2. 13 3 1986 ~ 2008 0. 78% 0. 86 1. 03-0. 69 26 ~ 28 29 30 3 Divisia % 1986 ~ 2008-0. 69 0. 86 0. 00 1. 03-0. 40-0. 02 0. 00 0. 78 1986 ~ 1994-0. 44 0. 66 0. 00 0. 53-0. 43 0. 06-0. 01 0. 36 1995 ~ 2008-0. 85 0. 99 0. 00 1. 35-0. 38-0. 08 0. 01 1. 04 3 1994 0. 36% 1. 04% 31 3. 1415 4 61% 45% 39% 32 1994 67
4 % 1986 ~ 2008 1986 ~ 1994 1995 ~ 2008 1986 ~ 2008 1986 ~ 1994 1995 ~ 2008 1. 41 1. 53 1. 34 100 100 100 0. 86 0. 94 0. 82 61 62 61 0. 55 0. 59 0. 52 39 38 39 1. 70 1. 30 1. 97 121 85 147-0. 29 0. 23-0. 63-21 15-47 0 ~ 15-0. 01 0. 13-0. 10-1 8-8 16 ~ 25 0. 37 0. 15 0. 51 26 10 38 26 ~ 35 0. 37 0. 59 0. 23 26 39 17 36 ~ 45 0. 52 0. 57 0. 49 37 37 37 46 ~ 60 0. 16 0. 09 0. 21 11 6 15-0. 27-0. 39-0. 20-19 - 25-15 - 0. 25 0. 13-0. 50-18 9-37 0. 84 1. 05 0. 71 60 69 53 0. 47 0. 42 0. 49 33 28 37 0. 62 0. 31 0. 83 44 20 62 26 ~ 45 1994 16 ~ 25 0 ~ 16 1994 1994 1994 20% 1994 62% 20 20 Divisia 1986 ~ 2008 1. 41% Divisia Divisia Divisia Divisia 1994 1994 1994 68
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