NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference Industry Update: The Statistical Reality Presented by Randy Smith, Chairman and Founder, STR
Global Lodging Performance
Global Regions Occupancy Year-over-Year % Change - YTD April 2012 15 10 8.9 5 0-5 5.2 2011 2012 3.0 3.7 0.8-0.7 2.4-10 -8.5 Americas Europe Middle East/Africa Asia Pacific Source: STR Global
Global Regions ADR ($) Year-over-Year % Change - YTD April 2012 15 10 2011 2012 9.8 13.4 5 3.2 3.9 4.4 3.2 4.4 0-0.8-5 Americas Europe ( ) Middle East/Africa Asia Pacific Source: STR Global
20 Global Regions RevPAR Year-over-Year % Change - YTD April 2012 15 2011 2012 12.6 10 8.6 8.3 7.0 8.0 6.9 5 4.0 0 0.5-5 Americas Europe Middle East/Africa Asia Pacific Source: STR Global
Europe vs. United States Seasonally Adjusted Demand (Millions of Room Nights) January 2005 through April 2012 95 90 Europe US 85 80 75 70 65 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: STR Global
Europe vs. United States Seasonally Adjusted Occupancy Percent January 2005 through April 2012 70 65 60 Europe US 55 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: STR Global
Europe vs. United States Seasonally Adjusted ADR January 2005 through April 2012 115 110 105 100 95 90 Europe ( ) US ($) 85 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: STR Global
US Lodging Performance
Total United States Monthly Room Supply Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to April 2012 150 145 140 CAGR 1.6% 135 130 125 120 115 110 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total United States Room Supply Percent Change January 2003 April 2012 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.0-0.5-1.0 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Total United States Monthly Room Demand Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to April 2012 95 90 CAGR 1.2% 85 80 75 70 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total United States Room Demand Percent Change January 2003 April 2012 10 8 6 4 2 0 1.7-2 -4-6 -8-10 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to April 2012 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 June 89 5.3% Jan 89 4.5% Oct 91-0.9% Supply % Change Demand % Change Mar 02-4.6% Aug 06-0.2% Aug 09-7.0% 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Feb 11 7.7% 4.1 0.4
Total United States Occupancy Percent Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to April 2012 70 CAGR -0.3% 65 60 55 50 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total United States ADR Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to April 2012 110 CAGR 2.2% $107.04 Oct 2008 3.5 Years + 100 90 80 $85.98 Nov 2000 Nearly 4 Years $86.12 Oct 2004 70 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Total United States Room Rate Percent Change January 2003 April 2012 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12 1.7 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003
Total United States Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 1989 to April 2012 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12 Jan 92 0.1 June 91-3.4 Occ % Chg ADR % Chg Mar 02-6.7 Aug 02-4.5 Oct 06 7.5 Sept 09-9.6 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Apr 11 6.2 Jan 10-8.9
Total United States RevPAR Seasonally Adjusted 1998 to April 2012 70 CAGR 1.7% $66.94 Nov 2007 4.5 Years + 60 $54.86 Nov 2000 50 4.3 Years $55.38 Feb 2005 40 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change April YTD 2012 10 8 8.6 7.5 6 4 5.8 3.4 5.2 3.1 3.3 4.2 2 0-2 0.6 0.3 2011 2012 Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Total United States Occupancy and ADR Percent Change April YTD & Weekly through 5/26 6% 5.1% 5.2% Occupancy % Chg ADR % Chg 4% 3.1% 4.2% 4.5% 3.2% 4.4% 4.4% 2% 1.1% 0% 0.1% Apr YTD 5/5 5/12 5/19 5/26
Chain Scale Performance
Chain Scales Supply / Demand Percent Change April YTD 2011 12 7 2 3.1 3.3 0.2 1.5 4.3 5.0 8.9 Supply Demand 1.5-3 -0.8-0.2-8 -7.6-4.4-13 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Chain Scales Occupancy / ADR Percent Change April 2012 YTD 6 4 3.9 4.8 3.1 4.1 2.8 4.3 3.7 3.6 3.4 4.1 2 1.9 1.7 0-2 Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Transient and Group Performance
Total United States Transient and Group Room Demand Percent Change January 2007 April 2012 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 Transient Group 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
Total United States Transient and Group ADR Percent Change January 2007 April 2012 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 Transient Group 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (luxury chains, upper upscale chains, and upper tier independent hotels).
U.S. Lodging Industry Projections As of June 4, 2012 Smith Travel Research, Inc. and/or STR Global, Ltd. (collectively for these purposes, STR ) are the exclusive owners of all rights in these Industry Presentations and their content. Reproduction of all or a portion of these presentations for any purpose without prior approval of STR is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.
U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators April 2012 2011 2012F 2013F Real GDP +1.7% +2.3% +2.6% CPI +3.2% +2.4% +2.2% Corporate Profits +7.9% +5.0% +5.8% Disp. Personal Income +1.3% +1.4% +1.9% Unemployment Rate 8.5% 8.2% 7.7%
Total United States Active Development Pipeline Rooms Change From Last Year Phase April 2012 April 2011 Difference % Change In Construction 61,287 50,335 10,952 21.8% Planned Pipeline 231,519 272,088-40,569-14.9% Active Pipeline 292,806 322,423-29,617-9.2% Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases
Hotel Demand Directionally Following GDP Growth Total US Hotel Rooms Sold vs. GDP - Quarterly Change 1989 1 st Qtr 2012 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0 GDP % Chg Demand % Chg -10.0 1989q1 1992q1 1995q1 1998q1 2001q1 2004q1 2007q1 2010q1 Note: Percentage change is current quarter vs. same quarter last year (GDP in 2005 dollars) Source: BEA
Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast Supply 0.5% 1.1% Demand 2.0% 1.8% Occupancy 1.5% 0.7% ADR 4.0% 4.6% RevPAR 5.5% 5.4%
Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale 2012 Year End Outlook Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury 2.6% 5.1% 7.9% Upper Upscale 1.5% 4.2% 5.7% Upscale 2.3% 4.6% 7.1% Upper Midscale 1.4% 4.0% 5.5% Midscale 2.8% 1.4% 4.3% Economy 1.4% 3.1% 4.5% Independent 0.5% 3.5% 4.0% Total United States 1.5% 4.0% 5.5%
GOP % Total United States Estimated Total Revenue and Profitability Years 2001 2011 160 140 120 100 80 60 Revenue Profit GOP% 103.5 102.6 105.3 113.7 37.1 35.7 35.0 36.6 Total Revenue and Profit in Billions 122.7 38.8 133.4 139.4 140.6 41.3 41.3 38.2 127.2 127.7 137.5 34.0 35.3 36.1 100 80 60 40 40 20 16.2 14.2 12.8 16.7 22.6 26.6 28.0 25.8 16.0 18.0 21.6 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0