INTERNATIONAL NICKEL STUDY GROUP Asia s role - past and present in the global nickel market Metal Bulletin 2nd International Nickel Conference Seville, Spain Salvatore Pinizzotto Director of Market Research and Statistics 26-27 March 2013
Overview of the presentation The International Nickel Study Group World Nickel Ore Production World Primary Nickel Production and Usage Nickel Prices and Stocks Nickel Developments and Capacity World Nickel Production and Usage (2011-2013) China Nickel Pig Iron Final remarks www.insg.org 2
International Nickel Study Group An Autonomous International Governmental Organization Co-located in Lisbon, Portugal with International Lead & Zinc and Copper Study Groups, resulting in significant cost savings Enhancement of market transparency in the world nickel market Forum for discussions on nickel issues. www.insg.org 3
INSG Member Countries Australia Brazil Cuba European Union Finland France Germany Greece Italy Japan Norway Portugal Russian Sweden United Federation Kingdom www.insg.org 4
INSG Main Publications www.insg.org 5
World Nickel Ore Production (1/2) 2400 in 1000 tonnes 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 Oceania 800 600 400 200 Europe Americas Africa www.insg.org 6 Asia 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (p) (p) preliminary
World Nickel Ore Production (2/2) 2003 Oceania 23% Oceania 17% 2013 (p) Europe 22% Americas 31% Asia 18% Africa 6% Indonesia 11% Philippines 2% Other Asia 5% Europe 14% Americas 22% Africa 5% Asia 41% Indonesia 21% Philippines 17% Other Asia 4% (p) preliminary www.insg.org 7
World Nickel Ore Production 2011 to 2013 in 1000 tonnes Area 2011 2012 % change 2013 (p) % change Africa 79.5 91.5 15.1 119.9 31.0 America 486.8 491.3 0.9 500.9 1.9 Asia 706.2 875.2 23.9 954.8 9.1 Europe 344.8 344.2-0.2 317.2-7.8 Oceania 346.1 383.0 10.7 396.0 3.4 Total 1963.4 2185.3 11.3 2288.7 4.7 All figures from March 2014 Bulletin (p) preliminary www.insg.org 8
World Primary Nickel Production (1/2) 2000 in 1000 tonnes 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 Oceania Europe 600 400 Asia 200 Americas Africa 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (p) (p) preliminary www.insg.org 9
World Primary Nickel Production (2/2) 2003 Oceania 14% Oceania 10% 2013 (p) Europe 38% Americas 23% Asia 21% Africa 4% China P.R. 6% Other Asia 15% Europe 26% Americas 14% Africa 3% Asia 44% China P.R. 36% Other Asia 11% (p) preliminary www.insg.org 10
World Primary Nickel Production 2011 to 2013 in 1000 tonnes Area 2011 2012 % change 2013 (p) % change Africa 36.4 41.0 12.7 58.8 43.4 America 268.0 295.2 10.2 277.6-5.9 Asia 631.2 728.0 15.3 918.2 26.1 Europe 522.4 515.1-1.4 497.0-3.5 Oceania 150.2 174.1 15.9 189.9 9.1 Total 1608.1 1753.4 9.0 1941.6 10.7 All figures from March 2014 Bulletin (p) preliminary www.insg.org 11
World Primary Nickel Usage (1/2) 1800 in 1000 tonnes 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 Oceania Europe 600 400 Asia 200 0 Americas Africa 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (p) (p) preliminary www.insg.org 12
World Primary Nickel Usage (2/2) 2003 2013 (p) Oceania 0.2% Oceania 0.2% Europe 38% Americas 13% Africa 4% Asia 45% China P.R. 10% Other Asia 35% Europe 19% Americas 10% Africa 1% Asia 70% China P.R. 51% Other Asia 19% (p) preliminary www.insg.org 13
World Primary Nickel Usage 2011 to 2013 in 1000 tonnes Area 2011 2012 % change 2013 (p) % change Africa 23.9 24.6 2.9 22.9-6.9 America 165.0 166.4 0.8 169.8 2.0 Asia 1050.6 1102.0 4.9 1231.7 11.8 Europe 364.5 359.9-1.3 345.5-4.0 Oceania 2.7 2.7 0.0 2.7 0.0 Total 1606.7 1655.6 3.0 1772.6 7.1 All figures from March 2014 Bulletin (p) preliminary www.insg.org 14
LME nickel average prices and end-month stocks tonnes US$/tonne 300000 275000 250000 225000 200000 175000 150000 125000 100000 75000 50000 25000 0 Stocks (tonnes) Prices (Cash, US$/tonne) J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ F 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 60000 55000 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 www.insg.org 15
Nickel Prices and New Capacity Nickel Prices / New Capacity Annual Avg. Price USD / t 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Past SLN 1875 Inco Sudbury 1902 Falco 1928 Rustenburg 1928 Norilsk 1933 Nicaro 1942 50s Sherritt 1954 Hanna 1954 Outokumpu 1956 Larco 1956 Moa 1959 Inco Thompson 1961 Morro 1962 70s Impala 1969 Bindura 1969 Empress 1969 WMC 1970 Falcondo 1971 Botswana 1973 Nonoc 1974 QNI 1975 PTAT 1975 80s CMSA 1982 Codemin 1982 Tocantins 1982 Kavadarci 1982 Kosovo 1983 Punta Gorda 1986 90s Anaconda 1999 Cawse 1999 Bulong 1999 Loma Niquel 2000 2000/2010s Barro Alto Onça Puma Tagaung VNC Ambatovy Koniambo 0 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2013: Jan to Aug www.insg.org 16 Note: no Chinese NPI projects included.
Project Name / Country Product Mode New Nickel Capacity on Stream / Ramp Up Estimated Production Projected Total Production Remarks Ambatovy / Madagascar Class I Ramp Up 40 000 60 000 Open market Long Harbour / Canada Class I Start Up 10 000 50 000 Mainly replacement Tagaung Taung / Myanmar FeNi Start Up 15 000 22 000 China Koniambo / New Caledonia FeNi Start Up 26 000 60 000 Open market Onça Puma / Brazil FeNi Ramp Up 12 000 58 000 Open market Barro Alto / Brazil FeNi Ramp Up 25 000 36 000 Open market Goro / New Caledonia Semi / Class I Ramp Up 25 000 60 000 Australia & China Ramu / PNG Semi Ramp Up 20 000 30 000 China & Other Talvivaara / Finland Semi Ramp Up 15 000 35 000 Finland Raventhorpe / Australia Semi Ramp Up 35 000 39 000 Australia & Other Taganito / The Philippines Semi Start Up 20 000 30 000 Japan Santa Rita / Brazil Conc. Ramp Up 20 000 25 000 Brazil & Finland Kevitsa / Finland Conc. Ramp Up 10 000 10 000 Open market www.insg.org 17 Note: no Chinese NPI projects included.
AUSTRIA 0% AUSTRALIA 8% ZIMBABWE 1% VENEZUELA 1% UK 2% UKRAINE 1% SOUTH AFRICA 3% SERBIA (KOSOVO) 1% BRAZIL 7% 2012: 1.8Mt CANADA 9% RUSSIAN FED. 19% Primary Nickel Capacity CHINA P.R. 9% COLOMBIA 3% NORWAY 5% CUBA 3% DOM. REP. 2% FINLAND 3% FRANCE 1% FYROM 1% by Country GREECE 1% INDONESIA 1% JAPAN 10% KOREA 2% MADAGASCAR 3% NEW CALEDONIA 3% New committed developments: 0.5Mt NORWAY 2% NEW CALEDONIA 23% New producing www.insg.org countries 18 Note: no Chinese NPI projects included. MYANMAR 4% BRAZIL 27% KOREA 5% MADAGASCAR 11% CANADA 10% CHINA P.R. 8% CUBA 4% JAPAN 6%
China Nickel Pig Iron Nickel Production (monthly) Sources: INSG, Antaike www.insg.org 19
China Nickel Pig Iron Imports of Nickel Ores (monthly) Sources: INSG, China Customs www.insg.org 20
China Nickel Pig Iron Imports of Nickel Ores (annual, year-to-date) Sources: INSG, China Customs www.insg.org 21
China Nickel Pig Iron LME Nickel Price (monthly average) Sources: INSG, LME www.insg.org 22
China Nickel Pig Iron Imports Ferro-nickel (monthly) Sources: INSG, China Customs www.insg.org 23
China Nickel Pig Iron Imports Unwrought Nickel (monthly) Sources: INSG, China Customs www.insg.org 24
China Nickel Pig Iron Imports Stainless Steel Scrap (monthly) Sources: INSG, China Customs www.insg.org 25
Final Remarks (1/2) Europe & North America: Stainless steel scrap has replaced more and more primary nickel, even FeNi has lost ground lately The nickel evaluation in stainless steel scrap in Europe and North America is rapidly approaching the nickel evaluation in NPI in China Will stainless steel scrap also become competitive with NPI in China? Will this mean more stainless steel scrap usage in China in the future, with slower NPI growth? The Indonesian legislation on nickel ore export restrictions, what effect will that have on ore availability in China and NPI in the near and medium future? www.insg.org 26
Final Remarks (2/2) Building up of NPI capacity in Indonesia, what effect will that have on nickel prices, NPI production in China and the world nickel supply/demand balance in coming years? High world nickel stocks, particularly LME, what effect will that have on nickel prices and availability of primary nickel in coming years? Nickel has been an attractive investment object and store of value in the past, will that continue? www.insg.org 27
INTERNATIONAL NICKEL STUDY GROUP Many thanks for your kind attention! Salvatore Pinizzotto s.pinizzotto@insg.org Director of Market Research and Statistics Rua Almirante Barroso, 38-5 th 1000-013 Lisbon Portugal phone: (351) 21 356 7031 fax: (351) 21 356 7039 insg@insg.org www.insg.org 28