Predicting the Markets: Chapter 12 Charts: Predicting Currencies
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1 Predicting the Markets: Chapter 12 Charts: October 5, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni Chief Investment Strategist Mali Quintana Senior Economist Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 1-18 October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
3 Figure 1. NET INFLOWS INTO EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS (cumulative flows since 2, trillion dollars) Total International* Domestic Aug * Includes Global & International, Emerging Markets, and Regional Funds. Source: Investment Company Institute. Figure 2. NET INFLOWS INTO EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS (cumulative flows since 2, percent of total) Aug Domestic International* * Includes Global & International, Emerging Markets, and Regional Funds. Source: Investment Company Institute. Page 1 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
4 Figure 3. TOTAL VALUE OF US STOCKS (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) US Equity Issues at Market Value Total Total Ex Foreign Issues* * Total excluding market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residents. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States. 25 Figure 4. FOREIGN EQUITIES HELD BY US RESIDENTS (as percent of total market value of equities held by US residents) Foreign Equities Share in US* * Market value of holdings of foreign corporate equities, investment fund shares, and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by US residents as a percent of the market value of their total equity holdings. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Financial Accounts of the United States. Page 2 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
5 Figure 5. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD* (billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) * Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Figure 6. CORPORATE PRE-TAX PROFITS RECEIPTS FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD* (as a percent of pre-tax corporate profits) * Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 3 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
6 Figure 7. FED S TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEXES (daily) Major* (3/73=1) Broad** (1/97=1) /28 9/ * Major index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom, ** Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Venezuela. Source: Federal Reserve Board Figure 8. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (21=1, daily) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate 1/ * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, and Euro Area. Source: JP Morgan. Page 4 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
7 .35 Figure 9. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO (US$ index / local currency index, daily) / Source: MSCI Figure 1. DEVELOPED WORLD EX-US MSCI INDEX CURRENCY RATIO (US$ index / local currency index, daily) / Source: MSCI Page 5 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
8 Figure 11. GOLD PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce, ratio scale) 1/ * Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix. Monthly from 1968 through 1974, then daily. Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics Figure 12. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX* (1967=1, ratio scale) 1/ * Weekly from January 9, 11 to May 26, 1981, then daily. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Commodity Research Bureau. Page 6 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
9 Figure 13. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel, ratio scale, monthly) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Haver Analytics Figure 14. NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN NOMINAL GDP (as a percent of nominal GDP) Total Ex Petroleum Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 7 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
10 Figure 15. US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE (12-month sum, billion dollars) Aug Source: US Treasury Department Figure 16. US TREASURY DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC* (trillion dollars, nsa, ratio scale) Sep * Marketable interest-bearing bills, notes, and bonds. Source: US Treasury Department, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt of the United States. Page 8 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
11 8 85 Figure 17. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (daily) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=1) 1 15 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 1/ / * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan Figure 18. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (daily) 15 9 Brent Crude Oil Price (dollars per barrel) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 1/ / * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. Page 9 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
12 85 9 Figure 19. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (daily) / Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) 5 12 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 1/ * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Figure 2. NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES: ADVANCED & EMERGING ECONOMIES (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Jul Jul International Reserves Held By: Advanced Economies* Emerging Economies * Includes United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom. Source: IMF and Haver Analytics. Page 1 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
13 Figure 21. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & CANADIAN DOLLAR (daily) / Canada (C$/US$, inverted scale) 1/ CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Haver Analytics Figure 22. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (daily) / Australia (A$/US$, inverted scale) CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 11 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
14 1 Figure 23. US INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: CURRENT vs FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCES (billion dollars, 4-quarter sum) Account Balance Current* Financial** * US exports less imports of goods and services plus net income from abroad. ** Net incurrence of liabilities less net acquisition of financial assets. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Figure 24. US INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS: STATISTICAL DISCREPANCY (billion dollars, 4-quarter sum) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 12 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
15 Figure 25. CHINA: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars) Merchandise Trade Surplus or Deficit (12-month sum) Non-Gold International Reserves (12-month change) Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Aug Aug Figure 26. CHINA: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* (billion dollars) Aug * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). Source: China Customs and Haver Analytics. Page 13 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
16 5 Figure 27. CHINA: NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES & YUAN Non-Gold International Reserves (trillion dollars, nsa) 6.5 Yuan/US$ (inverted scale) 1/ Source: IMF and Haver Analytics Figure 28. WORLD EX-US: MERCHANDISE TRADE & NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (billion dollars) 2 1 World Trade Surplus with US* (12-month sum) World Non-Gold International Reserves (12-month change) Aug 1 Jul * US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. Source: IMF and Haver Analytics. Page 14 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
17 2 Figure 29. WORLD EX-US: IMPLIED INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS* (billion dollars) Jul * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus with US (i.e., US trade deficit multiplied by -1.). Source: IMF and Haver Analytics Figure 3. IMPLIED WORLD EX-US CAPITAL FLOWS & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) Implied World Ex-US Capital Flows* JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) / * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan. Page 15 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
18 Figure 31. WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (12-month change, billion dollars) & TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) World Non-Gold International Reserves* (12-month change) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) / * 12-month change in non-gold international reserves minus 12-month sum of the merchandise trade surplus (deficit). US trade deficit multiplied by -1.. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan Figure 32. WORLD NON-GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (yearly percent change) & TRADE WEIGHTED DOLLAR (yearly percent change) World Non-Gold International Reserves (yearly percent change) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: IMF and JP Morgan. 9/28 Jul Page 16 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
19 Figure 33. INTERNATIONAL RESERVES HELD BY ALL CENTRAL BANKS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Jul All Central Banks Non-Gold International Reserves Total Foreign Exchange Holdings Total Allocated Reserves Allocated Reserves in US Dollars Source: IMF Figure 34. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF OFFICIAL FOREIGN-EXCHANGE RESERVES (COFER) (percent of Allocated Reserves in US dollars) Percent of Allocated Reserves In US Dollars Source: IMF. 6 Page 17 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
20 Figure 35. TOTAL ASSETS OF MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS (trillion dollars) Sep Fed ECB Sep Source: Haver Analytics Figure 36. JP MORGAN TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX* (21=1, daily) Oil Price Peak QE Terminated Oil Price Trough Trump Wins 1/ Rate Hike Rate Hike Rate Hike Rate Hike * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Rep., Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, UK, Uruguay, US, Venezuela, Vietnam, & Euro Area. Source: JP Morgan. Page 18 / October 5, 218 / Chapter 12 Charts: www.
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