GLOBAL SALMON PRODUCTION Trends in Production and Market Development By Ragnar Nystoyl, Head of Analysis Kontali Analyse Vigo October 1st 2018
Agenda Supply Development Farmed Salmonids Wild-caught Salmon Market Development All Salmonids Farmed Atlantic Salmon Outlook Food for thought
SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT
Farmed Salmonids Supply Development 1998-2017 Source: Kontali Analyse
Wild-caught Salmonids Supply Development 1998-2017 Source: NPAFC, ADFG, DFO, VINRO/TINRO, MAFF, Kontali
1000 tonnes WFE The first take-away A. Declining supply growth + 24 % + 7,7 % + 3,7 % 3000 2500 CAGR CAGR CAGR 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: Kontali Analyse
Farmed Atlantic Salmon From growth to decline - to growth and to decline again Source: Kontali Analyse
A long and lasting trend of Price increase Source: FHL, Nasdaq, Urner Barry
The second take-away B. A shift in price-level vs. other proteins Source: SNM, France Retail-prices * Price-basket: Salmon vs. Meat vs. Other fish
Shortage in supply Strong profitablity Estimated Profits* Major Farmed Salmonid Regions * Combined For Norway, Chile, Scotland / Ireland, North America & Faroe Islands Source: Kontali Analyse
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Wild & Farmed Salmonids (Ex. Portion Trout) Main Markets 2017 By Species Source: Various Trade Data, elaboration Kontali Analyse
Source: US Census Markets; US Export Value Wild Salmon Increased dependency on China (Re-processing ++)
Markets; Russian Export Value Wild Salmon Share to China Higher than for the US Source: Customs Inform
Atlantic Salmon Markets Increase by 2 % in 2017 - Unevenly distributed by regions * China + Hong Kong + Vietnam Source: Kontali Analyse
Atlantic Salmon Markets - YTD 2018 Overall volume growth first 3 Quarters: + 8 % * China + Hong Kong + Vietnam Source: Kontali Analyse
SUPPLY OUTLOOK
Wild Salmon; In-season Estimate 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E C hg Chinook 3 100 5 200 5 100 3 200 3 300 2 800-15 % Chum 338 300 321900 338 100 280 900 270 500 213 000-21% Coho 28 300 35 000 24 900 21000 24 100 24 700 2 % Pink 580 600 307 900 398 900 354 300 452 700 625 000 38 % Sockeye 133 200 173 700 190 300 183 000 173 600 181000 4 % Total 10 83 50 0 843 70 0 957 30 0 842 40 0 924 20 0 1046 500 13 % 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 E C hg USA 483 300 325 600 433 500 270 500 472 600 315 000-33 % Canada 29 900 37 700 17 600 21300 13 800 23 200 68 % Japan 164 500 144 300 137 600 111200 84 700 95 000 12 % Russia 405 800 336 100 368 600 439 400 353 100 613 300 74 % Total 10 83 50 0 843 70 0 957 30 0 842 40 0 924 20 0 1046 500 13 % Source: NPAFC, ADFG, DFO, VINRO, MAFF, estimats by Kontali Analyse
Large Rainbow Trout Harvest Estimates per country Source: Kontali Analyse
Atlantic Salmon Harvest Estimates per country Source: Kontali Analyse
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Year-over-Year Growth Atlantic Salmon Market Supply Month by Month Including projections 2019 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 5 % 0 % -5 % -10 % -15 % -20 % 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E Source: Kontali Analyse
Feed sales trends; Q1 Q3 2018 EUROPE YTD: -27 000 tonnes - 2 % AMERICAS YTD: + 75 000 tonnes + 8 %
Harvest Weights (Round weight) Norway vs. Chile Source: Kontali Analyse, Aquabench
1000 tonnes WFE Where could future supply growth come from? + 1,7 % + 24 % + 7,7 % + 3,7 % 3000 2500 CAGR CAGR CAGR 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: Kontali Analyse
Where could future supply growth come from?
Where could future supply growth come from? Landbased Salmon Farming Ocean / Offshore Farming Issuing New Capacity Regulatory Change Improved Productivity Better Capacity Utilization
To keep up with demand.. All of the above are likely needed! Thank you.