The World Nuclear Industry Status Report

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 1 st International Conference on Nuclear Risks International Nuclear Risk Assessment Group (INRAG) Antony Froggatt Independent Consultant and Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House, London Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) Contact: antony@froggatt.net Mycle Schneider International Consultant on Energy and Nuclear Policy, Paris Convening Lead Author and Publisher of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report (WNISR) Contact: mycle@orange.fr

Outline Global Status of Nuclear Power The French Case The UK Case Nuclear vs. Renewable Energy Development

40 Reactor Startups and Shutdowns in the World in Units, from 1954 to 1 April 2015 30 20 Reactor Startup Reactor Shutdown 10 0 1954 1960 1965 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015-10 -20-30 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015

GWe 400 350 300 250 200 Nuclear Reactors & Net Operating Capacity in the World in GWe, from 1954 to 1 April 2015 312 GWe 420 reactors 438 reactors Number of Reactors 500 340 GWe 394 reactors 450 400 350 300 250 150 100 50 Reactors in operation Operable capacity 200 150 100 50 0 0 1954 1960 1970 1980 1989 1990 2000 2002 2010 2015 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015

Capacity Changes in Nuclear Capacity (MW) 20000 15000 10000 5000 0-5000 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014-10000 Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Finland France Germany Hungary Italy Lithuania Netherlands Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK Source: PRIS 2015 6

GWe 160 Nuclear Reactors and Net Operating Capacity in the EU28 in GWe, from 1956 to 1 April 2015 Number of Reactors 200 120 Reactors in Operation Operable Capacity 123 GWe 177 reactors 121.2 GW 130 reactors 180 160 140 120 80 100 80 60 40 40 20 0 0 1956 1960 1970 1980 1988 1990 1999 2000 2010 2015 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015

TWh Nuclear Electricity Production by Country in 2013 900 (in TWh) 800 700 600 500 400 Maximum 2013 2012 300 200 100 0 USA France Russia South Korea China Canada Germany Ukraine UK Sweden Spain Belgium Taiwan India Czech Rep, Switzerland Finland Slovakia Hungary Japan Brazil South Africa Bulgaria Mexico Romania Argentina Slovenia Pakistan Iran Netherlands Armenia Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015

% Nuclear Electricity Production in the World 1990-2013 in TWh (net) and share of electricity production (gross) TWh 4000 20% 15% 17.5% max 17.6% max 2,660 TWh 2,359 TWh 3500 3000 2500 10% 10.8% 2000 1500 5% 1000 500 0% 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015

Number of Reactors 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 Number of Nuclear Reactors Listed as "Under Construction" by year, 1954-1 April 2015 234 48 186 Cancelled or Suspended Projects Completed and Ongoing Projects 66 75 5 50 61 25 0 1954 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015

Reactors «Under Construction» in the World (1 April 2015) Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015

Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2015

Operating Costs and Markets Market Prices Barely Cover Costs Belgium: GDF-Suez lost court case against fuel tax --> Now considers all options for its 7 reactors Sweden: at least 3 reactors operated at loss in 2 of 4 past years --> New 17% tax increase might lead to earlier shutdowns Forcing Shutdowns Germany: E.ON decides to shut down Grafenrheinfeld in May 2015, --> seven months earlier than required by law USA: Five shutdown decisions, incl. 2 reactors licensed to operate beyond 2030

Traditional Utilities Under Pressure The 20 largest European energy utilities lost over half of the 1 trillion stock market value since 2008, some a lot more. Utility business models are threatened by the dramatic growth in the deployment of technologies that generate electricity onsite or at the distribution grid level. Navigant Research, Boulder, USA, August 2014 A new technological paradigm in electricity and the end of the reign of the large-scale utilities. Institute for Public Policy Research, London, September 2014 Energy storage for electricity systems prices potentially dropping to $230/kWh by early next decade, which would make it cheaper than the average household electricity bill Citi Research 2014

The French Case: Nuclear Companies in Trouble EDF (2014) 4.5%/a operating cost increase 2007-2012 Loss of 1.5 billion in 2012 Need for significant tariff increases Stock value plunged >70% (up to 85%) since 2007 High debt 34.2bn for turnover of 73bn AREVA (2014) Loss of 4.8bn (almost 8bn in 4 years = annual turnover) High debt 5.8bn for turnover of 8.3bn Stock value plunged by > 85% since 2007 Standard & Poor s downgraded AREVA shares to BB+ ( junk ) in November 2014 and again to BB- in March 2015 Sources: Company websites; Standard & Poor s

Hinkley Point C In 2006 Government process to commission new nuclear Currently, one firm proposal for 24.5 billion project at Hinkley C, built by Areva for EDF Government support, 10 billion debt financing, price guarantee for 35 years, 92.5/MWh (2012,) annual increase index linked - Expected price at start of operation in 2024, 121/MWh Approved by European Commission, but finance package still not agreed FT reported, CGN and CNNC to sign investment contract in March,,,, Further delays due to situation in France 16

17 Rising Costs of Hinkley 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Parsons Brinckerhoff 76 84 90 Mott MacDonald- FOAK 105 Mott MacDonald- NOAK 74 White Papers and Modelling 35 43 PIU 48 Eon 40 EdF 30 Centrica 37 IAG 39

Importance of UK to international industry EDF Energy (4 reactors at Hinkley and Sizewell) EDF Group: 45-50% AREVA: 10% China General Nuclear Corporation (CGN), China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC): 30-40% Discussions are also taking place with a shortlist of other interested parties who could take up to 15% - Saudi Arabia? Horizon (4 reactors at Wylfa and Oldbury) Hitachi takes over E.on and RWE shares NuGen (3 reactors at Moorside Cumbria) January 2014, new ownership structure with Toshiba-Westinghouse (60%) and GDF Suez (40%); Iberdrola sold their shares Test case for EU State Aid

Historic Renewable-Nuclear Cross-over in UK TWh 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Nuclear Power Renewables

Nuclear Vs Renewables London, 5 March 2015

$ billion 350 300 250 200 150 Global Investment Decisions in New Renewables and Nuclear Power 2004-2013 (in $ billion) 100 50 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Solar Wind Other Renewables Nuclear

$ billion 700 600 500 400 Global Investment Decisions in New Renewables and Nuclear Energy 2004-2013 (in $ billion) Renewables Nuclear Power 300 200 100 0 US Brazil America (excluding US and Brazil) Europe Middle East and Africa China India Asia (Excluding China and India) Sources: UNEP 2014 and WNISR original research

Nuclear vs. Renewable Energy Development GWe 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Wind, Solar and Nuclear Grid Connections in the World 2000 2013 (cumulated, in GWe) Wind Nuclear Solar 30 13 57 6 103 17 22 17 221 66 266 98 301 135-19 -23-19 -50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: IAEA-PRIS, EPIA, GWEC 2014

TWh/y Variations in Global Electricity Production Compared to Reference-Year 1997 800 from Nuclear, Wind and Solar Photovoltaics (in TWh/y) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 Wind Nuclear Solar 303 257 51 415 121 313 266 384 1 4 18 30 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 331 510 93 616 124 114 Sources: BP, IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014

Concluding Remarks Global nuclear industry remains on the decline, losing share of electricity market. Two countries produce half the world s nuclear electricity, in the EU France produces half the total. Nuclear construction dominated by China, three quarters of all projects delayed. Increasing pressure on operators: aging reactors becoming more expensive to operate, just as market price of electricity is falling, client base and consumption are shrinking. France is facing rough times: nuclear champions in trouble with high debts, degraded credit-rating, destroyed share value, upcoming large upgrading and decommissioning costs. UK is important for international nuclear new build with Chinese, French and Japanese companies interested in engaging/building Investment in new renewable energy far exceeds that of nuclear leading to significantly higher newly installed capacity. Since signing of Kyoto in 1997, power generation added from solar and nuclear is similar, while wind is 4 times greater.

Back up slides

Final Energy Consumption in France in 2013 69% Fossil Fuels, 18% Nuclear Renewables + Waste (th) 10% Coal 4% Electricity 25% of which 18.2% Nuclear 3.3% Hydro 2.3% Fossil Oil 41% Natural Gas 21% Source: French Ministry of Ecology, Energy and Sustainable Development, Bilan Energétique de la France 2013, 2014; MSC 2015

30 TWh Nuclear and Solar RD&D Expenditures and Production in Italy 1963-2013 (in billion and TWh) billion 2012 1,5 20 Nuclear Production Solar Production Nuclear Fission RD&D Solar energy RD&D 1 10 0,5 0 1963 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 0 Sources: OECD, 2005, IEA & BP, 2014

GWe 110 Load Demand on the French Electricity Grid, Annual Minima and Maxima per Day 1978-2015 100 90 80 70 60 71.5 GWe 50 40 30 29 GWe 20 10 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Maximum load demand (GW) Minimum load demand (GW) Sources: RTE, various documents, compiled by MSC, 2015

Low Electricity Prices = High Electricity Bills Case Study France Overcapacities > Massive introduction of electric space heating - >30% of all existing housing - 75% of all new build until recently Electric space heating > Large spread fuel poverty - 5 million households officially in fuel poverty - 4 million households eligible for social tariffs (gas + electricity) - 3 million households recently difficulty to pay electricity bills (2013) - demands for assistance grow by 15% per year "The statistics of the National Housing Agency (ANAH) are affirmative: three million French are cold in winter". Gas prices +80%, electricity prices +20% in 5 years - Electricity expected to rise by 30% until 2016-2017

Energy Transition French Energy Bill Main Objectives of the Draft Bill Law Pre-existing Objectives Greenhouse Gases - 20 % GHG compared to 1990-40 % GHG compared to 1990-75 % GHG compared to 1990 Energy Efficiency - 20 % Energy in final consumption compared to 2012-20 % Energy in final consumption compared to 2012-50 % Energy in final consumption compared to 2012 Renewables 23 % Renewables in total final consumption 32 % Renewables in total final consumption Fossil Fuels - 30 % Fossil Fuels compared to 2012 Nuclear Power 50 % Nuclear in all electricity generation WISE-Paris

Energy Transition Pathways GHG Balance Possible Pathways of the French Energy Transition Designed and Assessed by Official and Independent Experts The energy transition does not represent a cost but an investment into the future. GHG Emissions Balance 5.3 4.1 2.3 2.4 Net Investments (2012-2050) - 1,470bn - 1,389bn - 1,151bn - 1,145bn Source: WISE-Paris 2015

Years Average Annual Construction Times in the World 1954-2014 22 (by grid connection date) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Size proportional to number of reactors -2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: IAEA-PRIS, MSC, 2014

The Energy Revolution is Underway And it is Fast New Players - Households (>2 million RE in Australia, 1.4 million in Germany) - Farmers - Municipalities - Energy Coops (invested 1.4 billion in 5 years in Germany) - Military (big player in micro-grid development in U.S.) New Business/Financing Models - Leasing (dominant PV investment scheme in U.S., soon China?) - YieldCos (bring RE investments to stock market, pay dividends) - Green Bonds (GDF raised 2.5 billion, EDF 1.4 billion) New Competitive Concepts - Decentralized storage ( fastest path to implement RE, DNV) - Electric vehicles + PV: Gas savings pay back for PV in 6-8 years (UBS) - Smart communication concepts

French Electricity Generating and Marketing Costs 2007-2012: +4.5%/a Commercial Costs Operating Costs Fix Costs Capital Costs Source: Rapport de la Commission de régulation de l énergie, 4 June 2013

French Nuclear Reactor Investments New Investment Initial Investment/ First Years of Operation Maintenance/Upgrading

Renewables Share of Global Electricity Generating Capacity Additions Source: IRENA, Rethinking Energy, 2014

GWe 100 Installed Nuclear, Wind and Solar Capacity in China 2000-2013 (in GWe) 91 80 60 Wind Solar Nuclear 63 75 42 40 20 0 2 5 6 7 8 1 3 26 12 10 6 3,3 0,1 0,3 0,8 12 13 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 6,8 18 16

TWh/y 160 140 120 100 80 Annual Electricity Production by Nuclear, Wind and Solar PV in China 2000-2013 (in TWh/y) Nuclear Wind Solar PV 74 86 70 96 97 132 111 60 55 43 45 40 20-28 17 12 4 6 01 1 3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: BP 2014

Solar Photovoltaics in the U.S. By 2017, more than half of the States could have rooftop solar that is as cheap as local electricity prices. Source: UCS, http://www.ucsusa.org/, 2014

Electricity Generation in France by Source

Stock Price Development EDF vs. CAC40 CAC40 EDF Source: http://finance.yahoo.com, 13 March 2015

New Competitive Concepts: Example Qarnot Computing Heating with waste heat from processors placed in peoples homes, rather than implementing expensive cooling for digital servers in huge data centers. Source: http://www.qarnot-computing.com Within two years, Qarnot Computing has built up a network of thousands of processors that are heating several hundred homes and offices in Paris for free and is providing commercial computing services far below market price.

Thank You! Contact: mycle@orange.fr www.worldnuclearreport.org About the Author Mycle Schneider works as independent international consultant on energy and nuclear policy. He is the initiator and Convening Lead Author of the World Nuclear Industry Status Reports and the Coordinator of the Seoul International Energy Advisory Council (SIEAC). He is a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), based at Princeton University, USA. In 2010-2011, he acted as Lead Consultant for the Asia Clean Energy Policy Exchange, implemented by IRG, funded by USAID, with the focus of developing a policy framework to boost energy efficiency and renewable energies. Between 2004 and 2009 he has been in charge of the Environment and Energy Strategies Lecture of the International Master of Science for Project Management for Environmental and Energy Engineering at the Ecole des Mines in Nantes, France. From 2000 to 2010 he was an occasional advisor to the German Environment Ministry. 1998-2003 he was an advisor to the French Environment Minister s Office and to the Belgian Minister for Energy and Sustainable Development. Mycle Schneider has given evidence or held briefings at national Parliaments in 14 countries and at the European Parliament. He has advised Members of the European Parliament from four different groups over the past 26 years. He has given lectures or had teaching appointments at 20 universities and engineering schools in 10 countries. Mycle Schneider has provided information and consulting services to a large variety of clients including international institutions and organizations, think tanks and NGOs. In 1997 he was honoured with the Right Livelihood Award ( Alternative Nobel Prize ).