ENERGIEWENDE THE GERMAN ENERGY TRANSITION SUCCESSES & CHALLENGES

Transcription

1 Source: thebreakthrough.org ENERGIEWENDE THE GERMAN ENERGY TRANSITION SUCCESSES & CHALLENGES FJERNVARMEINDUSTRIENS ENERGIPOLITISKE KONFERENCE 31. MARTS 2016

2 AGENDA 1. German energy supply - facts & figures 2. Energiewende - targets, elements & achievements 3. Talking about economy - effects & side effects 4. The heat sector - prospects for district energy 5. Conclusion - lessons learned & recommendations Source: agrion.org

3 GROSS ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX IN GERMANY 2015 Total: 651,8 bn. kwh Hard coal 18,1% Natural gas 9,1% Oil, pumped storage and others 4,8% Wind onshore 12,2% Renewables 30,1% Wind offshore 1,3% Biomass 6,8% Hydro 3,0% Lignite 23,8% Nuclear 14,1% Solar PV 5,9% Waste 0,9% Geothermal 0,02% Source: BDEW / AG Energiebilanzen Status: 01/2016

4 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION MIX IN GERMANY 2015 Hard Coal 12,7% Lignite 11,9% Nuclear 7,5% Other 0,5% Nat. Gas 21,0% Renewables 12,6% Oil 33,8% Source: AGEB, AGEE-Stat

5 AGENDA 1. German energy supply - facts & figures 2. Energiewende - targets, elements & achievements 3. Talking about economy - effects & side effects 4. The heat sector - prospects for district energy 5. Conclusion - lessons learned & recommendations Source: fotocommunity.de

6 HISTORY OF GERMAN ENERGY POLICY SINCE THE 1990 S Until the 1990s Main characteristics and key events Regulated energy markets and monopolies; few efficiency gains Meeting ever-growing demand with nuclear and fossil 1991 in Germany: first law regulating feed-in of RES 1 into the grid 1996/1998 Deregulation begins: first EU directive and national law introducing competition for electricity : German Renewable Energy Act (EEG) truly kick-starts development of new RES with fixed (high) feed-in prices and priority access rights Multiple policy turnarounds concerning nuclear energy: 2001: Nuclear phase-out plan (until early 2020s) 2010: Energy concept of the federal government with targets (valid until today) for renewables growth and CO 2 reduction. Nuclear lifetime extension to build a bridge to a low-carbon economy (+12 years for nuclear fleet on average; until mid-2030s) and Strong growth of RES continues 2011 Energiewende 2 launched after Fukushima 2011: Immediate phase-out of 8.5 GW (pre-1980s plants) and expedited phase-out until 2022 Nov July 2014 Coalition agreement of the new conservative-socialist government (phasing-out decision confirmed) Reform of Renewable Energy Act (EEG) Introduction of binding direct marketing for new installations Determined corridor for wind, PV and biomass expansion; limitation of subsidies Starting with auctioning in 2017 in order to determine the market premium for renewables 1) RES = renewables 2) Energiewende = energy transition

7 AVERAGE (ALL PLANTS) EEG FIXED FEED-IN TARIFF 60 Average EEG-price in ct/kwh ,1 51,2 50,5 50,9 53,0 53,0 52,0 49,2 50,2 48,0 43, : Forecast 40,2 35,5 33,4 32,6 32,8 32,9 32,4 31,8 31,2 30,6 19,8 20,6 20,7 21,8 23,7 24,3 24,1 23,2 23,2 23,2 23,2 23,2 16,9 19,2 16,1 15,0 15,0 15,0 14,7 12,5 12,3 13,6 14,2 15,0 15,0 15,0 20,0 20,8 20,6 20,6 20,6 20,6 20,6 20,6 20,6 9,6 15,3 9,5 9,5 9,4 9,7 10,8 9,1 9,1 9,1 9,1 9,0 9,0 8,9 8,8 8,8 8,9 9,2 9,2 9,2 9,1 9,1 9,1 9,1 9,1 9,1 9,1 8,8 7,2 7,3 7,3 7,2 7,3 7,4 7,5 7,5 7,6 7,8 8,3 9,6 9,9 10,1 10,4 10,1 10,5 10,5 10,5 10,5 10,5 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,0 7,1 7,1 7,2 7,4 7,2 7,2 7,1 7,1 7,3 7,2 7,3 7,2 7, Biomass Hydro DKG-Gases Geothermal Wind onshore Wind offshore* Photovoltaics * Wind offshore: Subsidy scheme changed in 2013 Source: BDEW Seite 7

8 RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY: CONTRIBUTION & TARGETS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Targets (2010 German FG energy concept) Corridor (2013 coalition agreement) 2020: 35% 2025: 45% 40% 2030: 50% 2035: 60% 55% 2040: 65% 2050: 80% 20% 10% 0% Source: BDEW, Status 01/2016

9 RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY: CONTRIBUTION & TARGETS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% RE share in electricity Targets (2010 German FG energy concept) Corridor (2013 coalition agreement) 2015: 32,6% 2020: 35% 2025: 45% 40% 2030: 50% 2035: 60% 55% 2040: 65% 2050: 80% 20% 10% 0% Source: BDEW, Status 01/2016

10 RENEWABLE ENERGY: CONTRIBUTION & TARGETS 100% 90% 80% Targets (2010 federal government energy concept) 70% 60% 50% 2040: 45% 2050: 60% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2020: 18% 2030: 30% 0% Source: BDEW / BMWi on basis AGEE Stat, Stand 12/2015

11 RENEWABLE ENERGY: CONTRIBUTION & TARGETS 100% 90% 80% RE share in total energy supply Targets (2010 federal government energy concept) 70% 60% 50% 2040: 45% 2050: 60% 40% 30% 20% 2014: 13,7% 2020: 18% 2030: 30% 10% 0% Source: BDEW / BMWi on basis AGEE Stat, Stand 12/2015

12 RENEWABLE ENERGY: CONTRIBUTION & 2020 TARGETS 40% 35% 30% 25% Targets of the German federal government RE share in total energy supply RE share in electricity RE share in heating and cooling RE share in fuels/transportation 2015: 32,6% 2014: 27,4% 1 Electricity 35% 51,0% 1 20% 15% 10% 2014: 13,7% 2014: 12,5% 2 Total 18% Heat 26,1% % Fuels ca. 12% 45,3%* 3 5% 0% 2014: 5,6% 4 5,7% * 50,7% in district heating Sources: BDEW; BMWi on basis AGEE Stat, Status 01/2016

13 OTHER TARGETS OF THE GERMAN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: -40% by 2020 and -80% by 2050 (based on 1990) Primary energy consumption: -20% by 2020 and -50% by 2050 (based on 2008) This results in a need for an annual increase of the energy productivity of 2,1% (on average), related to total end user consumption. Gross electricity consumption: -10% by 2020 and -25% by 2050 (based on 2008) Heat consumption of buildings: -20% by 2020 (based on 2008) The related primary energy demand shall be reduced -80% by (2050 total building stock shall be climate neutral. New buildings shall be climate neutral by 2020.) Transportation sector (end energy consumption): -10% by 2020 and -40% by 2050 (based on 2005).

14 GROSS ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN GERMANY [TWH] TARGET % (based on 2008) ACHIEVED -3,5 % Source: IW-Köln / BMWi

15 CO 2 EMISSIONS IN GERMAN ELECTRICITY GENERATION [MILLION TONS] TARGET % (based on 1990) ACHIEVED -5,8 % Source: Umweltbundesamt

16 AGENDA 1. German energy supply - facts & figures 2. Energiewende - targets, elements & achievements 3. Talking about economy - effects & side effects 4. The heat sector - prospects for district energy 5. Conclusion - lessons learned & recommendations

17 SHARE OF RENEWABLES IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION [%] 35 32, ,7 25,2 27, ,5 6,7 7,8 7,6 9,3 10,2 11,6 14,2 15,1 16, , Source: IW-Köln / AGEB

18 RE PLANTS (EEG) - INSTALLED CAPACITY : Forecast = 46,7% of total MW (2014) Installed capacity in MW Biomass Hydro DKG-Gases Geothermal* Wind offshore Wind onshore Photovoltaics *Geothermal not visible (2020: 76 MW) Sources: 2009 bis 2014: EEG-Anlagenregister, 2015: Prognose zur EEG-Umlage 2016, : EEG-Mittelfristprognose vom

19 SOLAR PV MODULES PRICE DEVELOPMENT Applies for rooftop installations < 10 kwp Excl. VAT Scale effects due to large serial production Ongoing technological development Strong competition among manufacturers Low price policy (China) Source: photovoltaik.org / BSW-Solar / EuPD Research

20 DEVELOPMENT OF EEG RE-ALLOCATION CHARGE SINCE 2000 [CENT/KWH] 7 6, , Houshold customer price (average): +100 % (x2) Source: IW-Köln / ÜNB

21 EEG DIFFERENTIAL COST & ELECTRICITY WHOLESALE PRICE Differential cost [Mio. ] ,78 35,74 48,84 54,82 68, , , ,87 36, * ,20 35, * 31, Value of electicity / market revenue [ /MWh] * 2016* Geothermal** Photovoltaics Biomass Wind offshore Wind onshore Hydro Electricity value 0 Source: BDEW * 2015/16: forecast ** not visible (2016: 38 Mio. )

22 GERMAN ELECTRICITY PRICES FOR ENTERPRISES - COMPARED WITH EU-15* AVERAGE [CT/KWH] small medium large 2000: 4,5 3,2 3,6 0,3 ct/kwh 1,7 1,5 1,2 1,1 0,9 0,6 1,3 1,2 0,9 1,6 1,4 1,4 2 2,1 2,5 1,8 1,7 1,4 2,8 2,2 2, *EU 15: 2007 without Italy, partly without Luxemburg; 2007: only H1. Source: IW-Köln / Eurostat, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln

23 RE-DISPATCH HOURS TO AVOID GRID BOTTLENECKS COST : 48 mill. 2014: 187 mill wind shut-off 2014: 82,7 mill Source: IW-Köln / Monopolkommission, Bundesnetzagentur

24 AGENDA 1. German energy supply - facts & figures 2. Energiewende - targets, elements & achievements 3. Talking about economy - effects & side effects 4. The heat sector - prospects for district energy 5. Conclusion - lessons learned & recommendations Source: roth-cartoons.de

25 INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLE ENERGIES [BN ] Thereof Electricity: 40 Thereof Heat: 35 3,2 4,9 5,4 4,8 7,1 9,7 9,4 9,4 12,0 19,7 24,3 20,6 17,0 12,5 16,0 1,4 1,8 1,5 1,7 1,9 2,1 3,5 3,2 4,2 3,6 3,0 3,2 3,3 3,2 2,9 Investment in bn ,6 6,7 6,9 6,5 9,0 11,8 12,9 12,6 16,2 23,3 27,3 23,8 20,3 15,7 18,9 0 Source: BDEW / ZSW Hydro Photovoltaics Wind onshore Wind offshore Biomass electricity Geothermal & env. heat Biomass heat Solarthermal

26 HEATING SYSTEMS IN ALL RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS Gas = Gas Heizöl = Oil Fernwärme = District Heating Strom = Electricity Wärmepumpen = Heat pumps Kohle = Coal Holz = Wood Weitere Brennstoffe = Other solid fuels Source: BDEW / AG Energiebilanzen

27 HEATING SYSTEMS IN NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS Source: BDEW / AG Energiebilanzen Erdgas = Natural gas Wärmepumpen = Heat pumps Fernwärme = District Heating Strom = Electricity Heizöl = Oil Holz = Wood Sonstige = Other

28 PROSPECTS FOR DISTRICT ENERGY Trend towards decentral solutions ( small, nice and at home ) (-) Shrinking heat demand (-) Consumers reservations against gridbased supply (monopolists) (-) Gas & contracting cannibalize central heat systems (-) Need for flexibility and storage (+?) Politically forced decarbonisation coal phase-out (+) Wärmewende at the doorstep (+)

29 AGENDA 1. German energy supply - facts & figures 2. Energiewende - targets, elements & achievements 3. Talking about economy - effects & side-effects 4. The heat sector - prospects for district energy 5. Conclusion - lessons learned & recommendations Source: b4bsaar-pfalz.de

30 GERMAN ENERGIEWENDE UNDER THE BOTTOM LINE: TARGET ACHIEVEMENT RELATED TO 2000* 2011 TODAY 100,4 117,0 57,1 84,0 71,5 72,4 75,0 65,5 Renewable energies Grids and infrastructure Energy efficiency Competition strength 25,1 18,7 23,9 100,0 Economic viability Climate protection -213,0-99,0 Electricity consumption * 100 points means on track related to target / 0 means no improvement / negative means deterioration Source: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IW-Köln)

31 GERMAN ENERGIEWENDE LESSONS LEARNED Nuclear phase-out on track but no followers in other countries Renewables target exceeded in electricity but at prohibitive cost Economical benefits mainly for (private) wind and PV producers - bottom-up re-distribution of wealth Extreme increase in electricity price level - for industry and household customers Controllable power generation in severe trouble so traditional utilities are Climate protection targets missed - almost no CO 2 reduction effect

32 GERMAN ENERGIEWENDE RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RE-ROUTING Solve nuclear phase-out cost problem Create true Energiewende master plan (incl. co-ordination and control) Seriously address transportation and heat sectors ( Wärmewende ) Address generation-demand mismatch (e.g. via integration heat & power) Source: eike-klima-energie.eu Set up subsidy schemes according to CO 2 reduction cost efficiency principle Think of electricity market design with appropriate electricity price systematics (e.g. financial incentive for right time guaranteed availability and demand) The future is green, digital and electric (Peter Terium, CEO of RWE)

33 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! PROF. DR. BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR TF