Oregon Global Warming Commission

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1 Oregon Global Warming Commission 2015 Report to the Legislature House Energy and Environment Committee January 14, 2016 Angus Duncan, OGWC Chair Jessica Shipley, ODOE staff

2 2015 Biennial Report to the Legislature Full report available at Summary handout provided to Committee members

3 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) Oregon s GHG Emissions: Historical Historical GHG emissions (1990 to 2012) : 56.9 mmt Peak mmt 2014: 60.1 mmt* Historical GHG emissions (1990 to 2012) *2013 and 2014 data are preliminary

4 US GHG Emissions

5 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) Oregon s GHG Emissions: Historical and Future Goals % below 1990 levels: 51.2 MMT 75% below 1990 levels: 14.2 MMT Historical GHG Emissions (1990 to 2012) 2020 and 2050 Goals Trajectory

6 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) Oregon s GHG Emissions: Historical and Forecast Forecast includes: Effects of Oregon s RPS Boardman closure Clean Fuels Fuel economy standards Historical GHG emissions (1990 to 2014) Current Business as Usual Forecast 2020 and 2050 Goals Trajectory Proposed 2035 goal: 32.7 MMT

7 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) 2015 Report Key Question What measures or policies could help fill the gap? Historical GHG emissions (1990 to 2014) Current Business as Usual Forecast 2020 and 2050 Goals Trajectory

8 Wedge Analysis to Fill the Gap

9 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) Energy Efficiency (Residential, Commercial, Industrial) Examples of measures: Residential HVAC, Weatherization, and Lighting, Commercial Lighting, Daylight, and Lighting Controls, Industry-specific measures 0.00

10 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) Carbon Price Includes: $60/ton carbon price Applied after the effect of the measures Change the base case in PSU s emissions and economic models Apply carbon tax to new base case

11 Wedge Analysis to Fill the Gap

12 Oregon Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010 (with electricity broken out from sectors) Industrial Processes & Other Energy 11.8% Other Residential & Commercial Activities 12.1% Livestock, Soil, & Crops 8.5% Transportation of Goods & People (no light rail) 36.0% Cars = about ¼ of OR GHG Electricity Use (all sectors) 31.5% Coal = about ¼ of OR GHG

13 MMT CO2 Pacific Power and PGE Emissions in Oregon Total (Pac+PGE) 2050 goal trajectory Based on estimates of 2013 IRP projections

14 Cars and Coal Est. Carbon-Equivalent MPG*: Electric Vehicles Wichita, KN (SWPP) 74% coal/8% gas Raleigh NC (SRVC) 45% coal/9% gas Seattle WA (WECC) <3% coal/<1% gas = 35 mpg* = 55 mpg* >112 mpg* Oregon Utilities PacifiCorp + 64% coal / +18% gas [ = + Wichita] PGE (post-boardman estimate) + 20% coal / +30% gas [ = + Raleigh] Eugene (EWEB) <2% coal / +1% gas [ = + Seattle] *Miles per gallon equivalents per UCS

15 Coal to Renewables Agreement: One possible Cars and Coal Solution Backs out coal-by-wire, while managing for cost, reliability Steps up renewables/rps to 50% by2040 Positions new gas to integrate renewables, not add new base load gas (emissions) Creates low-carbon power grid for electric vehicles PGE/PAC (electric sector) should meet 2035 greenhouse gas reduction goals

16 MMT CO2 Estimated coal-by-wire changes for PGE and Pacific Power Pac+PGE estimated total after coal reductions 2050 goal trajectory Baseline estimates from 2013 IRP projections

17 OGWC 2015 Report and Recommendations Establish a 2035 GHG Reduction Goal Proceed with both programmatic measures and carbon cap or tax Prioritize cars and coal Fix State s carbon strategy: institutional, data, accountability issues

18 Oregon Global Warming Commission The Oregon Global Warming Commission was created in 2007 by the Legislature to:... recommend statutory and administrative changes, policy measures... shall consider economic, environmental, health and social costs, and the risks and benefits of alternative strategies..., shall solicit and consider public comment... examine greenhouse gas cap-and-trade systems, including a statewide and multistate carbon cap-and-trade system and market-based mechanisms... shall examine possible funding mechanisms... shall develop an outreach strategy evaluate all gases with the potential to be greenhouse gases and to determine a carbon dioxide equivalency for those gases submit a report to the Legislative Assembly... by March 31 of each oddnumbered year that describes Oregon's progress toward achievement of [the State s] greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals....

19 Oregon Global Warming Commission... track and evaluate: (a) Economic, environmental, health and social assessments of global warming impacts on Oregon and the Pacific Northwest; (b) Existing greenhouse gas emissions reduction policies and measures; (c) Economic, environmental, health and social costs, and the risks and benefits of alternative strategies, including least-cost options; (d) The physical science of global warming; (e) Progress toward the greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals established by section 2 of this 2007 Act; (f) Greenhouse gases emitted by various sectors of the state economy, including but not limited to industrial, transportation and utility sectors; (g) Technological progress on sources of energy the use of which generates no or low greenhouse gas emissions and methods for carbon sequestration; (h) Efforts to identify the greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the residential and commercial building sectors; (i) The carbon sequestration potential of Oregon's forests, alternative methods of forest management that can increase carbon sequestration and reduce the loss of carbon sequestration to wildfire, changes in the mortality and distribution of tree and other plant species and the extent to which carbon is stored in tree-based building materials; (j) The advancement of regional, national and international policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (k) Local and regional efforts to prepare for the effects of global warming....

20 State Climate Policy: Functional Issues Accountability to State Climate Policies and Priorities Data on Which To Base Policies and Priorities Agency Benchmarks OGWC Authority, Budget and Staff Support to Develop Data, Carry Out Legislative Policy and Priorities, Set Benchmarks, Measure Progress Against Benchmarks, and Provide Accountability

21 Questions

22 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) Energy Efficiency (Residential, Commercial, Industrial) Examples of measures: Residential HVAC, Weatherization, and Lighting, Commercial Lighting, Daylight, and Lighting Controls, Industry-specific measures 0.00

23 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) Transportation (Ground, Freight, Air) Examples of measures: Fewer single-occupancy vehicle trips EV + PHEVs: from 3.6% of fleet in 2022 to 43% in 2035 Fuel economy: better than EPA s current rule 0.00

24 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) Materials and Waste Examples of measures: Biogas energy from solid waste and wastewater plants Landfill gas collection Reducing embedded carbon in new building materials Prevention of packaging waste 0.00

25 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) Agriculture Includes: Use of food waste to create energy Co-digestion of dairy manure to create energy Precision agricultural for nutrient management

26 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) Power Generation Includes: Assumption that PGE and PacifiCorp achieve 80% reduction below 2005 levels by 2050 Illustrative to show impact of achieving target

27 Million Metric Tons of Greenhouse Gases (CO2e) Carbon Price Includes: $60/ton carbon price Applied after the effect of the measures Change the base case in PSU s emissions and economic models Apply carbon tax to new base case

The data inputs and assumptions underlying this Reference Case are described in the Assumptions Book.

The data inputs and assumptions underlying this Reference Case are described in the Assumptions Book. MEMORANDUM To: From: Caroline Garber, Chief, Environmental Studies Section, WI DNR Kris Krause, Co-Chair, GWTF Technical Advisory Committee George Edgar, Co-Chair, GWTF Technical Advisory Committee Glen