La importancia de la perspectiva del

Transcription

1 Foro Internacional: La importancia de la perspectiva del futuro para el Perú y Latinoamérica Barry Hughes Director del Pardee Center for International Futures, Universidad de Denver Autor del modelo prospectivo IFs, además de asesor del National Intelligence Council de USA

2 LONG-TERM FORECASTING WITH INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS) Barry B. Hughes Frederick S. Pardee Center University of Denver March 28, 2014 Lima, Peru

3 THE PARDEE CENTER AND THE INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS) SYSTEM Frederick S. Pardee Center at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver IFs developed over a 35+ year period Focus is on long-term, integrated scenario development Have produced Patterns of Potential Human Progress series: Poverty, Education, Health, Infrastructure, and Governance 3

4 INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS) USERS United Nations Environment Programme: Global Environment Outlook 4 United Nations Human Development Reports: HDRs 2012 and 2013 European Union Commission: New Economy and Renewable Energy Projects United States National Intelligence Council Reports to the President: Global Trends 2020, 2025, 2030 Others include: World Bank, Peru CEPLAN, Western Cape Provincial Government, New Partnership for African Development, Population Services International, United States Institute of Peace, Google Public Data Explorer 4

5 THE INTERNATIONAL FUTURES SYSTEM DESIGN ELEMENTS Basic Features 186 countries Integrated multiissue, long-term User interface for data and scenario analysis Transparent/open, available at: pardee.du.edu 5

6 Governance Government Finance International Politics Education Economics Health Infrastructure Demographics Energy Agriculture Technology BLOCK DIAGRAM OF IFS Environment

7 FORECASTING AND PLANNING WITH IFS ANALYSIS OF TRENDS: GLOBAL, REGIONAL, NATIONAL, SUBNATIONAL SETTING GOALS: DATA ANALYSIS AND BENCHMARKING PERFORMANCE PLANNING: INTERVENTION AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS ENVISIONING AND IMPROVING THE FUTURE

8 IFs available at pardee.du.edu Let s look at it

9 TREND ANALYSIS: DEMOGRAPHICS AND EMPOWERMENT

10 Thousand 2005 Dollars TREND ANALYSIS: ECONOMIC GROWTH GDP per Capita (PPP) History plus Forecast Argentina Bolivia Chile Peru Year

11 Index TREND ANALYSIS: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT HDI New (2010 Reformulation) Amer-Carib Amer-Central Amer-South Year

12 Billion Barrels Oil Equivalent TREND ANALYSIS: ENERGY PRODUCTION Latin America: Energy Production by Type 7 Oil Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear OthRenew Year

13 Infant Mortality per 1000 Births BENCHMARKING: INFANT MORTALITY Benchmarking Infant Mortality Bolivia Colombia Brazil Peru Venezuela Argentina 5 Cuba GDP per Capita at Purchasing Power Parity

14 Education Years of Population, 15+ Years Old BENCHMARKING: EDUCATION Benchmarking Years of Formal Education Bolivia Cuba Chile Peru Argentina Ecuador Colombia Brazil GDP per Capita at Purchasing Power Parity

15 Parts per Million SCENARIO ANALYSIS: GREENHOUSE GASES Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere, Parts per Million 600 Markets First Policy FIrst Security First Sustainability First Year

16 Thousand 2005 Dollars SCENARIO ANALYSIS: PERU S ECONOMIC GROWTH Peruvian Scenarios: GDP per Capita at PPP 20 Base Case Combined Interventions Year Combined Interventions: 10% higher workforce participation; 20% higher export value; 30% higher FDI inflows

17 RECAP: FORECASTING AND PLANNING WITH IFS ANALYSIS OF TRENDS: GLOBAL, REGIONAL, NATIONAL, SUBNATIONAL SETTING GOALS: DATA ANALYSIS AND BENCHMARKING PERFORMANCE PLANNING: INTERVENTION AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS ENVISIONING AND IMPROVING THE FUTURE Learn more and try basic system: Pardee.du.edu

18 Gracias Barry B. Hughes Frederick S. Pardee Center University of Denver Marzo, 2014