Jordi Prat Principal Economist March, 2018
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1 Jordi Prat Principal Economist March, 2018
2 Agenda Economic Growth and Human Capital Foreign Banking in CADR and Financial Convergence Effect Favorable External Context Possible Shocks for CADR
3 Favorable External Context Agenda
4 CADR EMBI and BLZ vs LAC EMBI 1,800 1,600 CADR vs LAC BLZ vs LAC Favorable region s outlook is eroding 1,400 1,200 1, Jan-18 Nov-17 Sep-17 Jul-17 May-17 Mar-17 Jan-17 Nov-16 Sep-16 Jul-16 May-16 Mar-16 Jan-16 Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from Bloomberg.
5 International Economic Outlook for however, external context seems to be positive World Euro Zone LA* China USA Oct-16 Jan-18 Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from International Monetary Fund (WEO, October 2016 and January 2018). Note: *Growth Simple Average for Latin America, Venezuela not included.
6 Oil International Price (US$ per barrel) furthermore, commodities prices are stable Feb-18 Sep-17 Apr-17 Nov-16 Jun-16 Jan-16 Aug-15 Mar-15 Oct-14 May-14 Dec-13 Jul-13 Feb-13 Sep-12 Apr-12 Nov-11 Jun-11 Jan-11 Aug-10 Mar-10 Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from Energy Information Administration
7 economic outlook is positive World Economic Outlook United States Economic Outlook Observed Jan Forecast Oct Forecast Observed Jan Forecast Oct Forecast Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from International Monetary Fund (WEO, October 2016 and January 2018).
8 Real Monetary External Fiscal Slight downward adjustment CADR Economic Growth Economic Outlook Long pattern of sluggish growth Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from International Monetary Fund (WEO, October 2017).
9 Real Monetary External Fiscal Belize Economic Growth Slight downward adjustment Economic Outlook Long pattern of sluggish growth Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from International Monetary Fund (WEO, October 2017).
10 Real Monetary External Fiscal Inflation Inflation is not a threat to the region CADR Belize Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from International Monetary Fund (WEO, October 2017).
11 Real Monetary External Fiscal Balance current and oil account, % GDP Foreign Direct Investment, % GDP Balance Current Account Oil Balance Account Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from International Monetary Fund (WEO, October 2017) and Secretariat of the Monetary Council of Central America..
12 Real Monetary External Fiscal Balance current and oil account in Belize, % GDP Foreign Direct Investment in Belize, % GDP Balance Current Account Oil Balance Account Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from International Monetary Fund (WEO, October 2017), ECLAC (2018), and IMF (Article IV, September 2017).
13 Real Monetary External Fiscal Fiscal Deficit in CADR, % GDP Public Debt in CADR, % GDP Fiscal deficit is close to 2.3% of GDP Debt increased 6.9% of GDP between 2013 and 2017 Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from International Monetary Fund (WEO, October 2017).
14 Real Monetary External Fiscal Fiscal Deficit in Belize, % GDP Public Debt in Belize, % GDP Fiscal deficit is close to 0% of GDP Debt increased 16.5% of GDP between 2013 and 2017 Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from International Monetary Fund (WEO, October 2017).
15 Poverty Reduction Inclusive Growth Economic Growth and Poverty CADR LAC Linear (CADR) Linear (LAC) The inclusive growth challenge 0-5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% Income Per Capita Growth Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from World Bank.
16 Opportunities to harness integration The region is the second trade partner of itself: 20% of the regions exports have CADR as final destination Currently, the regional consumption of electricity via Regional Exchange is 5% of total consumption
17 Conditions of most important primary products to the region Oil as total imports, 2017 CADR 13.2 Oil price is very sensitive to geopolitical conflicts and climate events PAN SLV DOM BLZ NIC GTM 12.3 HND 11.0 CRI 8.0 Source: CID/IDB with data from International Monetary Fund (WEO, October 2017).
18 Conditions of most important primary products to the region The region is sensitive to climate change events and swings in commodity prices Participation of coffee, bananas, and sugar as in exports, 2016 Coffee Bananas Sugar The CADR countries are providers of products, but don t have influence on prices SLV DOM NIC CRI GTM HND PAN CADR Source: CID/IDB with data from Secretariat of the Monetary Council of Central America.
19 improve the accumulation of human capital? Which OPTIONS does the region have to to harness trade and financial integration? face external shocks?
20 Economic Growth and Human Capital Agenda
21 Average Years of Schooling Evolution of School Coverage in Latin America LAC CARD Final 60 s Primary complete Mid 90 s Lower Secondary complete years to USE Estimated Year of Graduation Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean and households surveys
22 however, coverage rates and school attendance are lagging Population between 20 and 24 years old that graduated from secondary School Assistance in Central America by Student Age Nicaragua El Salvador Costa Rica Panamá Primary Honduras Secondary Guatemala CHL PER BOL VNZ COL ARG ECU BRA PRY DOM PAN CRI MEX SLV HND URY NIC GTM Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean and households surveys
23 the quality of primary education is low 600 TERCE Average Grades, CHL CRI URY MEX COL BRA PER ARG ECU GTM HND PAN NIC PRY DOM Reading Mathematics Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from UNESCO
24 Belize has an interesting educational profile Mean Years of Schooling, 2015 BLZ CHL PAN ARG VNZ PER CRI MEX URY ECU BOL PRY BRA DOM COL SLV NIC GTM HND Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from United Nations. Human Development Reports (2017).
25 however the educational system needs improvement Education Index, ARG CHL ECU MEX VNZ PER URY DOM PAN PRY BLZ CRI COL BRA BOL SLV NIC HND GTM Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from United Nations. Human Development Reports (2017).
26 School Attendance Factors Marginal Effects of Household Characteristics to the Probability of Assitance to Primary School Marginal Effects of Personal Characteristics to the Probability of Assistance to Primary School 15% 8% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 9% 2% -1% -2% -3% -3% -5% -5% 11% 7% 6% -4% -2% -4% -4% -3% -4% -3% -5% -7% -8% -9% -9% Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panamá Resp. main breadwinner HH head is unemp. Remittances as % of househ. income Household is poor 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 5% 6% 3% 3% -1% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -8% -9% Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama Respondent is female Respondent is indigenous Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from CEPALSTAT and household surveys. Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from CEPALSTAT and households surveys.
27 22% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% % of population between 15 and 18 years old that neither work nor study, circa 2013 Early school dropout generates a high percentage of young people that neither work nor study 18% 17% 17% 16% 16% 15% 15% 13% 13% 12% 12% 6% Bolivia Brasil Ecuador Argentina Chile Panamá Nicaragua Paraguay Colombia Venezuela Uruguay Costa Rica R. Dominicana México El Salvador Perú Honduras Guatemala Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean and household surveys.
28 % of informal workers, circa A large share of workers are in the informal sector Chile Uruguay Costa Rica Brasil Venezuela Paraguay Argentina Panamá Colombia Perú Ecuador Rep. Dom. México El Salvador Bolivia Guatemala Nicaragua Honduras Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean and household surveys.
29 % of informality associated with different variables in Central America Factors that influence informality CRI SLV GTM HND NIC PAN DOM 22% 22% 23% 19% 18% 17% 18% 16% 16% 16% 15% 16% 14% 14% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 10% 5% -0.7% -0.7% -0.5% -0.4% -0.5% -0.6% -0.7% -9% -11% -11% -19% -20% -23% -22% % Occupied women % Labor Population % Labor Population with Secondary Min. Wage / Average Wage % Labor Popuation in Agriculture Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean and household surveys.
30 Health and Economic Growth Higher productivity comes with better health Infant Mortality Rate (deaths by each 1,000 live births) LA CADR BLZ HIGHER Economic growth Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.
31 Health and Economic Growth Higher productivity comes with better health What reasons are behind the better performance of health indicators in CADR? i. Better housing conditions HIGHER Economic growth ii. iii. Control and prevention of illnesses Prenatal control and access to improved sources of water
32 Health and Economic Growth Determinants of health services demand The higher level of education of the mother, the better the children s health. Living in urban areas decreases the probability of getting infected (closeness to health centers). 3. Factors like: the higher patient s age, health auto perception, and presence of chronical illnesses, increase the demand for health services.
33 Macroeconomic Impact of Improvements in Human Capital Closing the IMR gap with LAC would increase the GDP per capita Reducing secondary dropouts to 0%would increase the GDP per capita HND CRI* NIC DOM GTM SLV* PAN* CARD Source: CID/IDB Staff with estimates from O Hare et al. (2013). Note: *The gap closes with respect to Chile. CRI PAN SLV DOM GTM HND NIC CARD Source: CID/IDB with estimates from Baldacci et al. (2008).
34 Year Percentage Points Demographic Dividend: Opportunities and challenges Window of opportunity differs by country People in age to work (% of total population) Demographic Transition in CADR Belize Guatemala Honduras El Salvador Dominican Rep. Nicaragua Panama Costa Rica 0 Peak Year Increase between 2016 and peak year (rigth axis)
35 Forward Looking Options CADR biggest challenge is expand high school education. Technical Education, dual and/or internships To improve the link between education and labor demand Demographic dividend is an opportunity to bolster economic growth To maximize it, it is necessary to increase the stock of human capital Infant mortality limits force labor growth It is necessary to put special attention to problems like diarrhea and malnutrition To enhance the development of physical and cognitive skills
36 Agenda Foreign Banking in CADR and Financial Convergence Effect
37 Financial Integration Related with higher financial convergence Financial Convergence Countries financial cycles are more synchronized. Affects the countries s exposition A higher association between financial variables (credit, capital, past due, margin, among others) and a common cycle in the region. A higher synchronized exposition in the region and contagion possibilities.
38 The share of foreign Banking in CADR is stable, but with a higher participation from Colombia Banking Foreign Assets in CADR (% del total) Banking Assets by origin in CADR (% del total) CADR CA COL CADR Rest USA MEX Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from Central Banks.
39 2004M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M06 What financial variables are more synchronized? Credit Cycle and Common Cycle 3 Credit related variables are more synchronized with the common cycle. Credit, Credit/assets, past due portfolio and financial margin: 40% on average. Credit: 53% CRI SLV GTM HND NIC PAN DOM Common Cycle
40 What variables explain credit convergence? 1. Convergence with real sector 2. Real activity and trade partners 3. Financial Index Integration with Colombia 4. Credit growth
41 Agenda Possible Shocks for CADR
42 economic outlook is positive World Economic Outlook United States Economic Outlook Observed Jan Forecast Oct Forecast Observed Jan Forecast Oct Forecast Source: CID/IDB Staff with data from International Monetary Fund (WEO, October 2016 and January 2018).
43 Looking forward scenarios Sensitivity Analysis and policy actions in face of a deterioration of external conditions i. ii. iii. iv. The economic performance of the US has a high impact on the region s growth International oil price has a significant impact Changes in coffee, sugar, and bananas prices have also a relevant impact Higher global risk aversion has an important impact on growth
44 Forward Looking Scenarios Effects on GDP Economic growth of selected shocks (percentage points) USA Growth Increase of 1 pp Coffee Price Increase of 10% Bananas Price Increase of 10% Sugar Price Decrease of 10% Oil Price Increase of 10% Risk Global Aversion (VIX) Increase of 20% Range Average
45 Forward Looking Scenarios To consider 1. External demand outlook and commodities markets are positive to CADR. 2. Some events would be a risk for CADR, such as the new immigration and trade policy of United States. In ten years a restrictive trade policy from USA would reduce the region s output in 5.8% The tightening of US immigration policy, would reduce the growth of the Northern Triangle 0.6%
46 Gracias. Publication available at: 319/8779?locale-attribute=es
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