SFSA Business Outlook Raymond Monroe

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Mae Riley
5 years ago
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1 SFSA Business Outlook 2010 Raymond Monroe

4 Agriculture Workers

5 Population

6 Industrial Workers

7 Service Workers

11 U.S. Manufacturing 2008 manufacturing was $1.4 trillion 9 th largest economy/ size of Canada 70% R&D $147 billion 90% of patents $1.00 produces $1.37 of activity 3.4%/year productivity for 20 yrs compared to 2.2%/yr for others 22% higher wages than services manufacturing framework final_embargoed.pdf

18 Steel Casting Production in the U.S. million tons Million Tons U.S Year

19 Steel Foundries in North America

20 Production and Capacity production capacity 2000 thousand tons

21 United States Steel Production 160,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000, Tons 2004 R^2= 0.72 Slope = 0.02

22 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan Carbon & Low Alloy Casting Market Trends Shipments steel shipments Percent Change %

23 Cast Shipments R^2 =0.51 Slope= '55 '75 '

24 Interest Rates %change Prime Rate R^2=0.33 Slope = 0.37 %change Moody s aaa R^2=0.002

25 Price Index

26 Ratio of nondurable good to GDP implicit price deflator

27 Price of Oil

29 Nondefense Capital Goods New orders Air %change R^2=0.32 Slope = 0.37

30 Profits v production steel foundries with assets $2 10MM Gross Profit Operating Profit Profit before Taxes

31 Return on Assets steel foundries with assets $2 10MM

32 Profits v. ROA steel foundries with assets $2 10MM Gross Profits Operating Profits Profit before taxes

33 Return on Net Worth steel foundries with assets $2 10MM

34 Current Ratio Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Total Current Assets / Total Current Liabilities Target = Current Ratio Current-Median Upper Current-Median Current-Median Lower Year

35 Quick Ratio Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Cash & Equivalents & Trade Receivable (Net) / Total Current Liabilities Target = Quick Ratio 1.5 Quick-Median Upper Quick Median 1.0 Quick Median Lower Year

36 Fixed/Worth Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Net Fixed Assets / Tangible Net Worth Target = Fixed/Worth Fixed / Worth-Median Upper Fixed / Worth-Median 1.0 Fixed / Worth-Median Lower Year

37 Fixed Assets as a function of Net Worth steel foundries with assets $2 10MM

38 The laws of thermodynamics in very basic lay person language are thus: 1. You cannot win. 2. You cannot break even. 3. You must play the game and lose badly every time.

39 Thanks! Questions? Raymond Monroe

40 Return on Net Worth steel foundries with sales $10 25MM median upper median median lower

41 Return on Assets steel foundries with sales $10 25MM upper median median lower median

42 Profits and ROA steel foundries with sales $10 25MM gross profit operating profit profit before taxes

43 Profits v production steel foundries with sales $10 25MM gross profit operating profit profit before taxes

44 Other factors and ROA steel foundries with sales $10 25MM ebit/interest return on net worth sales/net fixed assets

45 25.0 EBIT/Interest steel foundries with assets $2 10MM

46 Correlation of production and finances steel foundries with assets $2 10MM net worth Operating Profit

47 Correlation of production and finances steel foundries with sales $10 25 MM total current assets operating profit

48 Trade Receivables Turnover Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Net Sales / Trade Receivables (Net) Target = At or Slightly Above Industry Average Trade Receivables Turnover Trade Receivables Turnover - Median Upper Trade Receivables Turnover - Median Trade Receivables Turnover - Median Lower Year

49 Days' Receivable Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets 365 / Trade Receivables Turnover Target = At or Lower Than Industry Average Days' Receivable Days Receivable - Median Upper Days Receivable - Median Days Receivable - Median Lower Year

50 27.0 Inventory Turnover Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Cost of Sales / Inventory Target = At or Slightly Above Industry Average 22.0 Inventory Turnover Inventory Turnover -Median Upper Inventory Turnover -Median Inventory Turnover -Median Lower Year

51 Days' Inventory Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets 365 / Inventory Turnover Target = At or Slightly Below Industry Average Days' Inventory Days' Inventory - Median Upper Days' Inventory - Median Days' Inventory - Median Lower Year

52 Trade Payables Turnover Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Cost of Sales / Trade Payables Target = Industry Average Trade Payables Turnover Trade Payables Turnover-Median Upper Trade Payables Turnover-Median Trade Payables Turnover-Median Lower Year

53 Days' Payable Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets 365 / Trade Payables Turnover Target = Industry Average Days Payable Days' Payable-Median Upper Days' Payable-Median 30.0 Days' Payable-Median Lower Year

54 Working Capital Turnover Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Net Sales / Net Working Capital Target = At or Above Industry Average Working Capital Turnover Working Capital Turnover -Median Upper Working Capital Turnover -Median Working Capital Turnover -Median Lower Year

55 Return on Net Worth Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Profit Before Taxes / Tangible Net Worth Target = Industry Average Return on Net Worth 40.0 Return on Net Worth-Median Upper Return on Net Worth-Median Return on Net Worth-Median Lower Year

56 Return on Assets Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Profit Before Taxes / Total Assets Target = Industry Average Return on Assets Return on Assets- Median Upper Return on Assets- Median Return on Assets- Median Lower Year

57 Asset Turnover Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Sales / Total Assets Target = Industry Average Asset Turnover Sales/Total Assets-Median Upper Sales/Total Assets-Median 1.5 Sales/Total Assets-Median Lower Year

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division

Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real