Nevada County Population Projections 2013 to 2032 Based On The Last Estimate Year of 2012

Transcription

1 Nevada County Population Projections 2013 to 2032 Based On The Last Estimate Year of 2012 Prepared By: The Nevada State Demographer s Office Jeff Hardcastle, AICP NV State Demographer University of NV Reno MS/032 Reno, NV (775) jhardcas@unr.edu October 1, 2013 Prepared for the NV Department of Taxation In Conjunction with the NV Small Business Development

2 The following information is being provided to put the DRAFT population projections for 2013 through 2032 in context. The annual projections are attached at the end of this document. The projections are based on the 2012 estimates and were prepared using the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) model for Nevada s 17 counties. This discussion presents a comparison of the 2012 and 2013 DRAFT projections for 2031; information on REMI s Out of the Box model; and an overview of the updates that were done to the model in producing the projections. Two tables and a graph show where Nevada is currently as it continues to recover from the Great Recession. The reader should bear in mind that Nevada was hit by three economic factors in the last decade: the housing bubble; the spike in fuel prices; and the financial crisis. Figure 1. Historic Gold Prices - Source: National Mining Association, KITCO.com accessed 8/7/2013, and Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Calculator While gold prices have fallen recently, they are still higher than 1990's inflation adjusted price of $ an ounce. Any potential discussion of job changes needs to bear this in mind. Table 1. Comparison of Nevada Job s to Surrounding States and United States Total From Peak Employment to June 2013 (thousands of jobs) State Nevada Arizona California Idaho Oregon Utah US Total Peak Date May-07 Oct-07 Jun-07 Jun-07 Dec-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Peak Employment Bottom Employment Date Sep-10 Sep-10 Feb-10 Jan-10 Feb-10 Feb-10 Feb-10 Bottom Employment

3 Table 1. Comparison of Nevada Job s to Surrounding States and United States Total From Peak Employment to June 2013 (thousands of jobs) Employment as of June 2013 (Preliminary) Bottom Less Peak June 2013 less Bottom State Nevada Arizona California Idaho Oregon Utah US Total Percent Loss -14.4% -11.7% -9.8% -8.6% -8.4% -7.3% -6.3% Percent of Lost Jobs Recovered Years from Peak to Bottom 27.9% 43.1% 53.4% 68.9% 49.1% 115.2% 75.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Seasonally Adjusted Current Employment Data As shown in Table 1, Nevada began losing jobs sooner for a longer period of time than its neighboring states and the nation as a whole. More than 52,000 jobs have been recovered since employment bottomed out almost three years ago. Nationally jobs have recovered at a faster rate but there is ongoing concern about the quality of those jobs both for hours worked and wage levels. Job creation is one way to look at a state s economy, and another is to look at how competitive the state is compared to other areas of the country and what sectors help grow its economy. One tool for looking at that is to calculate a location quotient. A location quotient compares a local region s job distribution to a larger region, in this case, Nevada to the US as a whole. The US percentage distribution of an industrial sector is divided in the local area sector s share. For example, US, manufacturing hypothetically makes up 10% of the workforce while locally it makes up 15% of the workforce. The location quotient for the region s manufacturing sector would be 1.5. A location quotient above one is considered a basic industry which is exporting goods and services. A location quotient of one or less means that the area is suppling those goods and services primarily to itself. A location quotient also shows just how concentrated a local economy is in a specific sector. Table 2 Nevada Location Quotients for Selected Years for Nevada Using North American Industrial Classification System Categories North American Industrial Classification Category 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 21 Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction st Year of NAICS Housing Peak Peak Employment Bottom Employment Most Recent Available Data Difference to Utilities Construction Manufacturing

4 Table 2 Nevada Location Quotients for Selected Years for Nevada Using North American Industrial Classification System Categories North American Industrial Classification Category st Year of NAICS Housing Peak Peak Employment Bottom Employment Most Recent Available Data Difference to Wholesale trade Retail trade Professional and technical services 55 Management of companies and enterprises 56 Administrative and waste services 61 Educational services 62 Health care and social assistance Transportation and warehousing Information Finance and insurance 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 71 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 72 Accommodation and food services 81 Other services, except public administration Unclassified Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Location Quotient Calculator Construction employment peaked at a location quotient of 1.88 in 2006 and now is close to only meeting local demand, that is, it is no longer being treated as an export base for the economy. The arts and entertainment sector and the accommodations and food services sector are still the sectors that drive Nevada s economy though it appears they are becoming less dominant compared to the rest of the country. Mining continues to holds its own and the transportation and warehousing sector continues to grow as well. This previous information helps to frame the projections that follow. Table 3 compares the 2012 Final and the 2013 DRAFT projections for the year 2031 since the 2012 projections only go out that far. Overall for the state as a whole we are projecting a growing population but one that is lower than last year s projection by 120,972.

5 Table 3 Comparison of 2012 Issued Projections and 2013 Projections For Difference 2013 Projection Less 2012 Projection Carson City 60,106 63,506 3,400 Churchill 33,100 31,526-1,574 Clark 2,436,276 2,343,821-92,455 Douglas 48,821 50,390 1,569 Elko 74,183 55,487-18,696 Esmeralda Eureka 3,797 2,383-1,414 Humboldt 26,477 16,808-9,669 Lander 8,540 5,137-3,403 Lincoln 7,575 5,805-1,770 Lyon 68,655 60,318-8,337 Mineral 6,694 4,318-2,376 Nye 64,903 48,326-16,577 Pershing 7,562 6,484-1,078 Storey 6,725 4,797-1,928 Washoe 501, ,541 40,239 White Pine 14,895 9,153-5,742 State Total 3,370,481 3,250, ,817 The REMI model which underlies these projections comes with an out of the box (OOB) projection for both the nation as a whole and the 17 counties in Nevada. The user can adjust the national as well as the local projection. The first step is to update the national projection and compare that against other sources. There are a number of factors that can potentially impact the national economy, the greatest continued drag seems to the impact of sequestration on Federal spending. Additionally, there continues to be a lack of agreement on the Federal debt ceiling and there are stories of a potential government shut down. Moody s has an employment scenario that factors in these factors continuing to be a drag on the economy. REMI s out of the box projection was projecting annual growth of 1.2% and the Moody s projection for 2013 to 2033 was 0.9%. The Moody s projection was used from 2013 to 2018 and then REMI s projection beyond that point. Figure 2 shows how the three projections compare. The national forecast that was used in these projections had an average growth rate of 1.1%. Updating the national projection in REMI also impacts the Nevada economy. This is illustrated in Figure 2 which also adds in county level information. The OOB line shows Nevada s employment from the out of the box model, the next line in the graph shows employment with only the national employment updated as previously discussed, and the Nevada Employment Update line shows what happens with only updating Nevada s local employment numbers. The model is built off of a last historic year of Data was available so the actual employment could be updated with more recently reported data for 2013 for Clark and Washoe Counties. The other counties were updated to reflect 2012 data. With updating for local changes Nevada s projected employment drops from where the model predicts it to be with only the national employment changes. For reasons beyond the scope of this report, Nevada continues to lag in its recovery compared to the nation as a whole.

6 Figure 2 Comparison of REMI National Out of the Box and Adjusted Projections Figure 3 Comparison of Nevada Employment Scenarios With the

7 REMI model, the user can make changes to the Out of the Box (OOB) projection through using policy variables in the model. s in these variables impacted the statewide employment shown in Figure 3 as the All Adjustments line. One of the main adjustments was to increase mining employment. The OOB model had a loss in employment while showing gains in worker productivity. Employment was adjusted upward and productivity was adjusted downward. It was assumed for the purposes of these projections that overall mining employment will be relatively flat for the next three years and then fall to historic average levels for the period between 1990 and While gold mining may lose employment other mineral mining or petroleum drilling areas may be developed so that the aggregate total of mining jobs follows these two assumptions. The counties that this adjustment was made to were: Elko, Esmeralda, Eureka, Humboldt, Lander, Pershing, Storey and White Pine. The aggregate total across all these counties is shown below in Figure 4. Figure 4 Comparison of Mining Employment Scenarios The other categories and region where there was a substantial adjustment made was to Clark County s Recreation sector and the Services sector. The Out of the Box projection in employment in these sectors equated to a gain of 57,913 hotel rooms over the time period for these projections and the current occupied units implied for 2012 exceeded occupied units reported by the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (134,481 implied in the model compared to 127,005 or 84% occupied which is the 2012 rate). From 1990 through 2012 the average number of employees in the Accommodations and Food Service sector has been 1.74 employees per room. The high was in 2008 at 1.95 and low was1.54 per room in For occupied rooms, the average has been 2.02 employees per room. The high was 2.17 in 2007 and the low was 1.76 in Occupancy has ranged from 68% in 1970 to a high of 90.4% in The average from 1970 to 2012 has been 82.8% and the average since 1996 has been 86%. This is much higher than the national rate of 60% in Given that there is only one large project announced at this time, the Genting Groups 3,500 room project on the old Stardust site, the model s employment was adjusted to show fewer new rooms being built over the next 20 years. Table 4 shows the result of these adjustment a calculation of rooms using the historic ratio of employees to total rooms and occupied rooms.

8 Table 4 Comparison of Room Projections Between REMI s Out of the Box Model and Employment Revisions for Accommodations and Food Services and Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 2012 Actual Out of the Box Updated and Adjusted Employment Total Rooms Occupied Rooms Total Rooms Occupied Rooms 150, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,213 in Rooms 58,900 25,066 Finally, in preparing the projections information from rural Nevada news clippings were reviewed to see what significant projects have been announced that might impact a local economy as an export activity and help bring in new dollars. The population projections are attached in the following table as is detailed employment by industry for each county.

9 Population Projections for Nevada's Counties 2013 to 2032 Nevada State Demographer's Office Based On 2012 Estimate Carson City Churchill Clark Previous Year Percentage Total Population Previous Year Percentage Total Population Previous Year Total Population Percentage ,441 25,238 1,988, , % 25, % 2,008,315 20, % , % 25, % 2,029,207 20, % , % 25, % 2,049,593 20, % , % 25, % 2,070,603 21, % , % 26, % 2,089,331 18, % , % 26, % 2,107,612 18, % , % 26, % 2,125,235 17, % , % 27, % 2,142,324 17, % , % 27, % 2,158,847 16, % , % 28, % 2,175,007 16, % , % 28, % 2,190,925 15, % , % 28, % 2,207,751 16, % , % 29, % 2,225,495 17, % , % 29, % 2,244,010 18, % , % 30, % 2,263,082 19, % , % 30, % 2,282,573 19, % , % 30, % 2,302,497 19, % , % 31, % 2,322,939 20, % , % 31, % 2,343,821 20, % , % 31, % 2,365,232 21, % The NV State Demographer's Office is part of the NV Small Business Development Center and funded by the NV Department of Taxation

10 Total Population Douglas Previous Year Population Projections for Nevada's Counties 2013 to 2032 Nevada State Demographer's Office Based On 2012 Estimate Elko Previous Year Esmeralda Previous Year Percentage Total Population Percentage Total Population Percentage 48,015 51, , % 52,779 1, % % 47, % 53, % % 47, % 54, % % 47, % 55, % 1, % 47, % 55, % 1, % 47, % 56, % 1, % 47, % 56, % 1, % 48, % 56, % 1, % 48, % 56, % 1, % 48, % 56, % 1, % 48, % 56, % 1, % 48, % 56, % 1, % 49, % 56, % % 49, % 56, % % 49, % 56, % % 49, % 56, % % 50, % 56, % % 50, % 55, % % 50, % 55, % % 50, % 55, % % The NV State Demographer's Office is part of the NV Small Business Development Center and funded by the NV Department of Taxation

11 Total Population Eureka Previous Year Population Projections for Nevada's Counties 2013 to 2032 Nevada State Demographer's Office Based On 2012 Estimate Humboldt Previous Year Lander Previous Year Percentage Total Population Percentage Total Population Percentage 2,011 17,384 6,221 2, % 17, % 6, % 2, % 17, % 6, % 2, % 18, % 6, % 2, % 18, % 6, % 2, % 18, % 6, % 2, % 18, % 6, % 2, % 18, % 6, % 2, % 17, % 5, % 2, % 17, % 5, % 2, % 17, % 5, % 2, % 17, % 5, % 2, % 17, % 5, % 2, % 17, % 5, % 2, % 17, % 5, % 2, % 16, % 5, % 2, % 16, % 5, % 2, % 16, % 5, % 2, % 16, % 5, % 2, % 16, % 5, % 2, % 16, % 5, % The NV State Demographer's Office is part of the NV Small Business Development Center and funded by the NV Department of Taxation

12 Population Projections for Nevada's Counties 2013 to 2032 Nevada State Demographer's Office Based On 2012 Estimate Lincoln Lyon Mineral Total Population Previous Year Percentage Total Population Previous Year Percentage Total Population Previous Year Percentage 5,100 52,245 4,679 5, % 52, % 4, % 5, % 52, % 4, % 5, % 52, % 4, % 5, % 53, % 4, % 5, % 53, % 3, % 5, % 54, % 3, % 5, % 54, % 3, % 5, % 55, % 3, % 5, % 55, % 3, % 5, % 56, % 4, % 5, % 56, % 4, % 5, % 57, % 4, % 5, % 57, % 4, % 5, % 58, % 4, % 5, % 58, % 4, % 5, % 59, % 4, % 5, % 59, % 4, % 5, % 59, % 4, % 5, % 60, % 4, % 5, % 60, % 4, % The NV State Demographer's Office is part of the NV Small Business Development Center and funded by the NV Department of Taxation

13 Total Population Nye Previous Year Population Projections for Nevada's Counties 2013 to 2032 Nevada State Demographer's Office Based On 2012 Estimate Pershing Previous Year Storey Previous Year Percentage Total Population Percentage Total Population Percentage 44,292 7,013 4,103 44, % 6, % 4, % 44, % 6, % 4, % 44, % 6, % 4, % 44, % 6, % 4, % 44, % 6, % 4, % 45, % 6, % 4, % 45, % 6, % 4, % 45, % 6, % 4, % 45, % 6, % 4, % 46, % 6, % 4, % 46, % 6, % 4, % 46, % 6, % 4, % 46, % 6, % 4, % 47, % 6, % 4, % 47, % 6, % 4, % 47, % 6, % 4, % 47, % 6, % 4, % 48, % 6, % 4, % 48, % 6, % 4, % 48, % 6, % 4, % The NV State Demographer's Office is part of the NV Small Business Development Center and funded by the NV Department of Taxation

14 Total Population Population Projections for Nevada's Counties 2013 to 2032 Nevada State Demographer's Office Based On 2012 Estimate Washoe White Pine State Total Previous Year Percentage Total Population Previous Year Percentage Total Population Previous Year Percentage 427,704 9,945 2,750, ,035 3, % 10, % 2,775,216 24, % 434,853 3, % 10, % 2,801,434 26, % 439,283 4, % 10, % 2,828,028 26, % 444,495 5, % 10, % 2,856,269 28, % 450,363 5, % 10, % 2,882,597 26, % 456,556 6, % 10, % 2,908,730 26, % 462,924 6, % 9, % 2,934,377 25, % 469,422 6, % 9, % 2,959,641 25, % 475,968 6, % 9, % 2,984,298 24, % 482,563 6, % 9, % 3,008,651 24, % 489,213 6, % 9, % 3,032,838 24, % 495,878 6, % 9, % 3,057,933 25, % 502,559 6, % 9, % 3,083,970 26, % 509,216 6, % 9, % 3,110,792 26, % 515,823 6, % 9, % 3,138,144 27, % 522,349 6, % 9, % 3,165,821 27, % 528,821 6, % 9, % 3,193,786 27, % 535,216 6, % 9, % 3,222,107 28, % 541,541 6, % 9, % 3,250,664 28, % 547,775 6, % 9, % 3,279,540 28, % The NV State Demographer's Office is part of the NV Small Business Development Center and funded by the NV Department of Taxation

15 Churchill Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

16 Churchill Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

17 Clark Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

18 Clark Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

19 Douglas Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

20 Douglas Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

21 Elko Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

22 Elko Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

23 Esmeralda Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

24 Esmeralda Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

25 Eureka Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

26 Eureka Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

27 Humboldt Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

28 Humboldt Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

29 Lander Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

30 Lander Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration

31 Lincoln Related Activities Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Leasing Technical Services and Enterprises Management Services Educational Services Assistance Recreation Services Public Administration