Zions Bank Economic Overview. December 5, 2017
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1 Zions Bank Economic Overview December 5, 2017
2 National Economic Conditions
3 Dow Breaks 24,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
4 Business Optimism Booms Post Election Source: Trading Economics, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
5 Consumer Confidence Continues Higher 130 October Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Source: The Conference Board
6 Trumponomics Repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act Tax Reform Increase spending on infrastructure and military Reduce government regulations Renegotiate trade deals But can they get it done?
7 October Marks 85 Straight Months of Job Creation Employment Change in thousands Million Jobs Lost 16.6 Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: October 2016 to October 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining 8.8% Construction 2.8% Prof. & Bus. Serv. 2.6% Ed. & Health Serv. 2.0% Financial Activity 1.8% Leisure & Hospitality 1.8% Manufacturing 1.3% Other Services 1.3% Trade, Trans., Utilities 0.4% Government Information -2.3% 0.2% Total: 1.4% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
9 Unemployment Lowest in 17 Years 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% = Full Employment 3.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
10 68% Labor Force Participation Remains in a Tight Range 67% 66% 65% 64% Oct: 62.7% 63% 62% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
11 Baby Boomers Head for Retirement 68% 38% U.S. Participation Rate 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% Share of % 20% U.S. Participation Rate Age 55+ Share of Working Age Pop Source: Zions Bank Analysis of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
12 Long-Term Decline of the Teenage Workforce 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Participation Rate Ages Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13
14 Standard of Living Best Ever
15 Fewer Unemployed Workers Per Job Opening July Unemployed/Openings Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
16 Real GDP Growth 6.0% 4.0% Q % 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Personal Consumption Fixed Investment Net Exports Inventories Government Real GDP Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
17 Wage Growth in October Disappoints 4.0% 3.5% Oct % 3.0% 2.5% Average 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
18 Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par 5% Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change 4% 3% Oct 1.6% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
19 Federal Funds Target Has Risen Four Times in the Last Decade Federal Funds Target Rate = Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
20 Federal Reserve Rate Increase Projections 4% 3% 2.9% 3.0% 2% 1.4% 2.1% 1% 0% Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
21 Markets Expect Rate Increase in 2017
22 2018 Rate Increase Expectations Rising
23 Fed Announces Plan to Reduce Balance Sheet $5.00T $4.50T $4.00T $3.50T $3.00T $2.50T $2.00T $1.50T $1.00T $0.50T Recession QE1 QE2 QE3 $0.00T Mortgage-Backed Securities U.S. Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Other Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
24 Yield Curve Flattening
25 Yield Curve Showing Signs of Distress 10-year minus 2-year spread 3.0% 2.50% 2.0% 1.50% 1.0% 0.50% 0.0% -0.50% -1.0% ource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
26 Bond Spreads Tightening
27 Bond Spreads Tightening
28 Changing Energy Markets
29 Is Bitcoin in a Bubble?
30 Utah Economic Conditions Source: U.S Census Bureau
31 CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% Utah Population Fastest Growing in U.S. MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% OH 0.1% KY 0.3% WV -0.5% VT -0.2% PA -0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss HI 0.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
32 Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200, , , , ,051,217 25,412 34,997 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000-20,000 Components of Population Change Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population f 2018f Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate, f = forecast
33 Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2015 to 2016 Box Elder 2.2% Tooele 3.1% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.2% Rich 1.0% Weber 1.7% Morgan 3.1% Summit Salt Lake 2.1% 1.5% Utah 3.0% Wasatch 4.7% Duchesne -2.1% Daggett -1.4% Uintah -3.7% State Average = 2.0% Juab 4.2% Carbon -0.2% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% Millard 0.4% Beaver 1.9% Piute -2.5% Sanpete 2.1% Sevier 1.6% Wayne 0.0% Emery -1.3% Grand 0.9% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Iron 3.4% Washington 3.1% Kane 3.0% Garfield -0.1% San Juan 7.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
34 Utah has the 2nd Highest employment growth in the nation CA 1.5% OR 2.5% WA 2.1% NV 2.8% Percent Change in Employment for States: Oct to Oct U.S. Rate = 1.4%, UT Rate = 2.7% AK 0.1% ID 2.4% UT 2.7% AZ 1.2% MT 1.2% WY -0.5% HI 1.1% CO 1.4% NM 1.6% ND 0.6% SD 0.1% NE 1.0% KS -0.4% TX 2.6% OK 1.2% MN 1.5% IA 0.9% MO 1.1% AR 1.9% WI 1.4% LA 0.4% IL 0.3% MS 0.6% MI 1.0% IN 0.9% TN 1.2% AL 1.5% OH 1.1% KY 1.5% GA 2.0% VT 1.0% WV 0.4% PA 1.1% NC 1.7% SC 2.1% VA 0.9% FL 2.3% NH 0.9% NY 1.1% ME 0.8% DC 0.9% CT 0.1% DE 0.7% MD 2.0% MA 1.9% RI 0.9% NJ 0.7% 2.0% + 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
35 Most Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: October 2016 to October 2017 Other Services Prof. & Bus. Serv. Construction Leisure & Hospitality Ed. & Health Serv. Trade, Trans., Utilities Government Manufacturing Financial Activity Information Ntl. Res. & Mining -2.7% -3.7% 6.1% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 2.8% 2.2% 1.9% 1.7% 0.2% Total: 2.7% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
36 Utah Employment Change Rates By County October 2016 to October 2017 State Rate = 2.7% Box Elder 1.6% Tooele -1.5% Juab -1.7% Cache 2.5% Rich 4.0% Weber 1.9% Da1is 4.1% Morgan 4.0% Salt Lake 2.5% Utah 4.4% Summit 2.8% Wasatch 5.8% Duchesne 4.9% Carbon 1.9% Daggett 8.1% Uintah 5.9% 5.0% + 3.3% to 4.9% 1.0% to 3.2% Millard 2.9% Beaver 3.6% Piute 6.4% Sanpete 0.3% Sevier 2.8% Emery 2.4% Wayne 1.9% Grand 3.6% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Iron 1.8% Garfield 2.2% San Juan 0.7% Washington 4.5% Kane 1.2% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Not seasonally adjusted
37 Utah has the 10 th lowest unemployment rate in the nation OR 4.3% CA 4.9% WA 4.5% NV 5.0% AK 7.2% ID 2.9% UT 3.3% AZ 4.5% October 2017 U.S. Rate = 4.1%, UT Rate: 3.3% MT 3.9% WY 4.2% CO 2.7% NM 6.1% ND 2.5% SD 3.5% NE 2.7% KS 3.6% TX 3.9% OK 4.4% MN 3.3% IA 3.0% MO 3.5% AR 3.6% LA 4.8% WI 3.4% IL 4.9% MS 4.9% MI 4.5% IN 3.9% TN 3.0% AL 3.6% OH 5.1% KY 5.0% GA 4.3% WV 5.1% VT 2.9% PA 4.7% NC 4.1% SC 3.9% VA 3.6% FL 3.6% NH 2.7% NY 4.8% ME 3.5% DC 6.6% CT 4.5% DE 4.8% MD 3.8% MA 3.7% RI 4.2% NJ 4.9% 6.0% + 5.5% to 5.9% 4.8% to 5.4% 4.0% to 4.7% 3.9% or less HI 2.2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
38 Utah Unemployment Rates By County October 2017 State Rate = 3.3% Box Elder 3.2% Tooele 3.6% Juab 3.4% Cache 2.7% Weber 3.7% Morgan Davis 3.0% 2.9% Salt Lake 3.0% Utah 2.8% Rich 2.9% Summit 3.0% Wasatch 3.3% Duchesne 5.2% Carbon 5.0% Daggett 5.6% Uintah 5.6% 7.0% + 6.0% to 6.9% 4.0% to 5.9% Millard 3.1% Beaver 3.7% Piute 5.3% Sanpete 3.9% Sevier 3.8% Emery 4.9% Grand 5.1% Wayne 7.1% 3.2% to 3.9% 3.1% or lower Iron 3.9% Garfield 6.7% San Juan 6.8% Washington 3.3% Kane 3.3% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
39 CA 3.4% WA 4.1% OR 2.8% UT Personal Income Growth 2 nd Highest in the Nation NV 4.8% AK 1.3% Percent Change in Personal Income : 2016 Q Q2 U.S. = 2.9%; UT = 4.4% ID 3.4% UT 4.4% AZ 3.9% MT 2.7% WY 1.2% HI 2.9% CO 3.9% NM 1.9% ND -0.5% SD 1.1% NE 1.3% KS 0.9% TX 2.6% OK 0.8% MN 3.3% IA 0.8% MO 1.8% AR 3.0% WI 2.7% LA 3.0% IL 1.8% MS 2.4% MI 3.0% IN 3.4% TN 3.5% AL 2.9% 4.0% or more 3.6% to 3.9% 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease OH 2.1% KY 2.1% WV 1.9% GA 4.0% VT 2.5% PA 2.7% NC 3.8% SC 3.7% VA 3.1% FL 4.0% NH 3.0% NY 2.3% ME 2.2% DC 2.9% CT 1.0% DE 3.9% MD 2.9% MA 2.8% RI 1.5% NJ 1.9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
40 Utah Poverty Rate 7 th Lowest in the Nation CA 14.3% WA 11.3% OR 13.3% NV 13.8% AK 9.9% ID 14.4% UT 10.1% AZ 16.3% 2016 U.S. Rate = 14.0%, Utah Rate = 10.1% MT 13.3% WY 11.3% HI 9.3% CO 11.0% NM 19.8% ND 10.6% SD 13.3% NE 11.4% KS 12.1% TX 15.6% OK 16.3% MN 9.9% IA 11.8% MO 14.0% AR 17.1% WI 11.8% LA 20.1% IL 13.0% MS 20.8% 18.1% + MI 15.0% IN 14.1% TN 15.8% AL 17.1% 15.1% to 18.0% 12.1% to 15.0% 10.1% to 12.0% 10.0% or less OH 14.6% KY 18.5% WV 17.8% VT 11.9% PA 12.9% VA 11.0% NC 15.4% SC 15.3% GA 16.0% FL 14.6% NH 7.2% NY 14.6% ME 12.5% DC 18.6% CT 9.8% DE 11.6% MD 9.6% MA 10.4% RI 12.8% NJ 10.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Community Survey 1-year estimate
41 Inflation Surging in Utah 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% United States CPI: +2.2% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +3.5% Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group
42 Consumer Sentiment on the Rise Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index: Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Sources: Conference Board and Cicero Group
43 Real Estate and Construction
44 $275,000 $255,000 $235,000 $215,000 $195,000 $175,000 $155,000 $135,000 $115,000 $95, Utah home values continue to rise Utah Oct 2017 $268, U.S. Oct 2017 $203, United States Utah Source: Zillow Research
45 Utah Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process U.S. Utah Source: Graphiq.com
46 Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Forecast e 2018f Single-Family Units Multifamily Total Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight
47 Utah Value of New Residential Construction Increasing $8,000 Millions of Dollars $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 Forecast $1,000 $ e 2018f Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total
48 Utah Economic Indicators f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales e 2017f 2018f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast
49 Positives Strong consumer and business confidence Trumponomics pro growth agenda The Western US has: Strong population growth Strong employment growth Low unemployment Strong income growth Utah inflation is strong Economic Overview Negatives National and international uncertainty Trumponomics success? Unsure inflation outlook Skills mismatch Low productivity growth Overregulation from Washington
50 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks. Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone:
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