BIL Sweden Anders Norén Head of technical department SPT Nordic Conference 2018, 2018-03-14
The first fossil free country in the world The Swedish Parliament introduced a climate political framework in june 2017. The framework consists of a climate law, new climate targets and a climate council. Climate Targets 2045 No net emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere 2030 70 % reduction of greenhouse gases in the transport sector, aviation not included (compared to 2010)
Strategy for climate protection Increased effiency Biofuels New technologies
g/km 260 Average CO2-emissions in Sweden and EU 1978-2017 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Sweden EU
19,0 % biofuels in the transport sector 2016 (on energy basis) Source: SPBI
5,1 % new supergreen cars in 2017 (Emitting maximum 50 grams CO 2 per km) % 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (prognos)
Supergreen cars 2011-2017 (new registrations) (Emitting maximum 50 grams CO 2 per km) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 BEV 178 266 432 1239 2962 2945 4 217 PHEV 3 662 1111 3418 5619 10031 14 979 FCEV 3 1 19 14 Totalt 181 928 1546 4657 8582 12995 19 210
Forecast chargeable electric cars 2018 (Personbilar) Battery Elctric Vehicles (BEV) 7 500 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) 26 500 Total 34 000
Share of electric/plug-in hybrids of tot new reg Jan-Dec 2017 (%) No. 1. Norway 39,3 62 313 2. Iceland 8,7 1 863 3. Sweden 5,2 19 678 4. Switzerland 2,7 8 391 5. Netherlands 2,7 11 079 6. Belgium 2,6 14 299 7. Finland 2,6 3 055 8. Austria 2,0 7 154 9. United Kingdom 1,9 47 298 10. Portugal 1,8 4 082
Elbilslistan to be found at www.bilsweden.se Chargable electric car models Today more than 40 on the market.twelve are Battery Electric Cars. There are two Fuel-Cell car models. For 2025 there will be more than hundred models of Battery Electric Vehicles and ebven more Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Forecast for chargable electric cars, examples Volvo: One million electric cars on the market by 2025 Volkswagen: 20-25% new BEV by 2025 Toyota: Focus on Fuel-Cell cars, chargable electric cars a complement 100% fossile free cars by 2050
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 400 000 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0
Passenger traffic work Million passenger-km 140 000 Passenger transport work with passenger car and railway 2000-2016 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Passenger car Railway
Goods transport work Million ton-km 70000 Goods transport work by trucks and railway 2000-2016 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Trucks Railway
Increasing number of persons with driving license 8 500 000 Number of persons with a driving license 1989-2016 8 000 000 7 500 000 7 000 000 6 500 000 6 000 000 5 500 000 5 000 000
Reduction of greenhouse gases from road traffic Two percent decrease in 2017 8 percent decrease is needed to reach the 70 percent reduction target in 2030! New additional incentives are needed! Forecast, reduction of green house gases from road traffic Source: The Swedish Tranport Administration
90 % New car registrations by fuel type (%) 2005-2017 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Diesel Petrol Ethanol CNG Electric hybrids Electric/plug-in hybrids 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
(%) Stock Dec-17 New reg 2017 Petrol 58,2 39,2 Diesel 33,9 49,1 Ethanol 4,6 0,3 CNG 0,9 1,0 Electric hybrid 1,5 5,2 Electric/plug-in hybrid 0,9 5,2 Total number 4 845 609 379 393
Restriction for diesel cars in the cities On february 27 2017, the German Supreme Administrative Court confirmed that German cities and municipalities can introduce restrictions for dieselcars fulfilling up to Euro 5 in certain areas in order to fulfil the european air quality requirement. This is not a general prohibition for dieselcars, it is a possibility for municipalities to introduce restrictions in certain situations. In the pressrelease the German Supreme Administrative Court stated prohibition of diesel cars are possible as an excemption. The Swedish Minister of infrastructure commented that the suggested restrictions for dieselcars in Sweden will be modified so that individual mobility is not affected.
More robust framework/regulations for emissions and type approval WLTP New more realistic emission figures - Sept. 1, 2018 all cars RDE aditional type approval test with portable emission measuring equipment Sept. 1, 2019 all cars New regulation for type approval including market surveillance - not yet decided Our opinion is that all diesel cars will have SCR catalysts, with Adblue, from September 1 2019 at the latest
New incentives in Sweden Bonus-malus Changed tax for company cars Reduction quotas for biofuels Proposal for restriction for cars in the cities Support for charging infrastructure More efficient incentives needed to reach the 70 % reduction target!
Bonus-malus, the malus Increased tax for three years, introduction July 1 2018 Kr 30000 25000 20000 Malus Diesel Bensin 15000 10000 5000 0 CO2, g/km 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Example malus for diesel car 150 g/km = 360+ 82x(140-95) + 107x(150-140) + 13,52x150 + 250 = 7398 kr Example malus for petrol car 150 g/km = 360+ 82 x (140-95) + 107x(150-140) = 5120 kr
Bonus-malus, the bonus Introduction July 1 2018 Kr 70000 60000 50000 Bonus 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 CO2, g/km 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 In addition to this CNG/BNG cars get 10.000 kr in bonus.
New trends: automatisation, connected vehicles etc. New transport solutions Longer and heavier vehicles Today advanced driving assistant systems Tomorrow fully automated and self parking vehicles Platooning (Automated convoy driving for trucks) Will have large effects for traffic safety and the environment
Thank you! g/km 260 Average CO2-emissions in Sweden and EU 1978-2017 19,0 % biofuels in the road transport sector 2016 (on energy basis) 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 1. Energy effiency 2. Biofuels 100 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Sweden % 10,0 9,0 EU 5,1 % new supergreen cars in 2017 (Emitting maximum 50 grams CO 2 per km) Source: SPBI 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 3. New technologies 2,0 1,0 0,0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (prognos)