Old Dominion University 2017 Regional Economic Forecast January 25, 2017 Professor Vinod Agarwal Director, Economic Forecasting Project Strome College of Business www.odu.edu/forecasting The views expressed in this presentation do not represent official positions on the part of Old Dominion University, the Old Dominion University Board of Visitors, or any of the sponsors of the Economic Forecasting Project. The data in this presentation may be subject to revision. To our knowledge, all data in this presentation are accurate at the time of the presentation. 1
Presentation outline I. 2016 Economic Performance a) Regional and National Economies b) Defense c) Civilian Nonfarm Jobs d) Residential Market in Hampton Roads e) Taxable Sales and Hotel Revenue f) Port and Cargo II. Forecast for 2017 2
Rate of Growth of Real Gross Domestic Product (U.S.) and Gross Regional Product (Hampton Roads) Selected Time Periods from 2001 to 2017* 25% 20% 15% 10% 13.69% 21.21% 10.84% Growth rate in 2015 Virginia: 1.44% DC Metro: 1.27% 5% 0% 2.60% 3.71% 1.59% 2.18% 0.87% 1.36% 1.41% 2001 to 2009 2009 to 2014 2014 to 2015 2015 to 2016e 2016 to 2017f USA Hampton Roads Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates latest BEA revisions in September 2016. * numbers for 2016 are estimates. 3
Change from Pre-Recession Peak The 2007-2009 Recession and its Recovery through December 2016 % Change in Total Non-farm Payroll Employment from Pre-Recession Peak 6% 4% 2% 0% Months After Pre-Recession Peak 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 Pre-Recession Peak Dates: U.S.: January, 2008 Virginia: April, 2008 Hampton Roads: July, 2007 4.96% 4.30% -2% -4% -1.79% -6% -8% USA VA HR
1/1/2000 9/1/2000 5/1/2001 1/1/2002 9/1/2002 5/1/2003 1/1/2004 9/1/2004 5/1/2005 1/1/2006 9/1/2006 5/1/2007 1/1/2008 9/1/2008 5/1/2009 1/1/2010 9/1/2010 5/1/2011 1/1/2012 9/1/2012 5/1/2013 1/1/2014 9/1/2014 5/1/2015 1/1/2016 9/1/2016 Percentage 12 Unemployment Rates in U.S., Virginia, and Hampton Roads 10 8 6 4 2 0 Recession US Virginia Hampton Roads Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Defense Spending 6
Billions of dollars 700 Caps on Department of Defense Discretionary Spending, FY 2012 to FY 2021 The legislated cap on spending increased by $27B (5.18%) during FY 2016 and by only $3B or 0.55% during FY 2017; is expected be $2B less in FY 2018. 650 600 550 500 450 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 BCA 2011 Sequestration ATRA2012 BBA 2013 BBA 2015 Source: BCA2011,Budget Requests for FY14, CBO Sequestration Update Report and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 7
What can we expect from President Trump s Administration? Three among many possibilities 8
Billions of dollars 700 Caps on Department of Defense Discretionary Spending, FY 2012 to FY 2021 Good times are here again!! 350 Ships; Full Rate F-35; Growing the Army and Marine Corps. National Defense Expenditures rise by 5% annually 650 600 550 500 450 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Sequestration ATRA2012 BBA 2013 BBA 2015 forecast Source: BCA2011,Budget Requests for FY14, CBO Sequestration Update Report and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 9
Billions of dollars 700 Caps on Department of Defense Discretionary Spending, FY 2012 to FY 2021 Remember the Good Times? Tax Reform, Infrastructure Crowd out Defense Spending after first year. Possibility of BRAC. 650 600 550 500 450 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Sequestration ATRA2012 BBA 2013 BBA 2015 forecast Source: BCA2011,Budget Requests for FY14, CBO Sequestration Update Report and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 10
Billions of dollars 700 Caps on Department of Defense Discretionary Spending, FY 2012 to FY 2021 Status Quo becomes the new Normal. Tax Reform, Infrastructure and Defense all compete for attention. Congress continues to modify BCA caps. 650 600 550 500 450 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 Sequestration ATRA2012 BBA 2013 BBA 2015 forecast Source: BCA2011,Budget Requests for FY14, CBO Sequestration Update Report and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 11
Hampton Roads Gross Regional Product Attributable to DOD Spending 1984-2017 50% 49.5% 48.8% 45.1% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 33.5% 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of Commerce, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project 39.2% 36.7% 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 12
Billions of $ Estimated Direct DOD Spending in Hampton Roads 2000 to 2017 $25.0 Between 2000 and 2012, DOD spending in our region increased by an annual average of 5.8%. In 2017, it will be about 1% lower than its peak in 2012. $20.0 19.5 19.6 18.7 19.2 19.1 19.4 $15.0 $10.0 10.0 $5.0 $0.0 Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement 13
Estimated Average Compensation (Wages, Salaries and Fringe Benefits): Selected Categories Hampton Roads: 2014 and 2015 Earnings in 2014 Earnings in 2015 Percent change 2014 to 2015 Military $91,531 $91,283-0.27% Federal Civilian Govt. Employees State and Local Govt. Employees $103,583 $107,521 3.80% $59,150 $60,088 3.28% Private Nonfarm $41,279 $42,185 2.19% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. * BEA calls compensation as earnings. 14
Growth (CAGR) in Estimated Average Compensation (Wages, Salaries and Fringe Benefits) Selected Categories Hampton Roads: 2001 to 2015 Compound Annual Growth Rate 2001 to 2010 Compound Annual Growth Rate 2010 to 2015 Military 7.2% 0.7% Federal Civilian Govt. Employees 4.5% 2.6% State and Local Govt. Employees 3.6% 2.1% Private Nonfarm 2.9% 2.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. BEA refers to compensation as earnings. 15
Old Dominion University 2016 Hampton Roads Scorecard Actual Change 2016* Predicted Change 2016 Civilian Employment** Unemployment Rate** 0.47% +0.94% 4.59% 4.30% Source: Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Figures for calendar year 2016 include predicted values for December 2016. **Employment data for 2015 and 2016 will be revised by U.S. BLS in March /April 2017. 16
In thousands Annual Civilian Employment (Jobs) in Hampton Roads: 1999 to 2016 The HR economy added only 3,600 jobs in 2016. At the end of 2016, we will still be about 6,500 jobs below our pre- recession level. 800 775 750 730.5 749.9 737.5 775.5 767.2 742.2 740.2 746.8 765.4 769.0 725 706.6 700 675 650 Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted.
Thousands Net New Civilian Jobs Gained/Lost in Selected MSA s, Virginia, and North Carolina From 2007* to 2016 200 150 100 50 108.5 19.5 41.3 76.7 48.7 105.1 152.5 185.7 0-50 -6.5 Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES seasonally unadjusted data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. * Peak employment in Raleigh, Durham, Northern Virginia, and Virginia occurred in 2008. Change for these areas is shown for 2008 through 18
Rethink and Invest in Our Strengths REGION --not just individual cities and counties Go Virginia has potential Traffic Problems Not just roads, but also airports Diversification HR Community Foundation Economic Competitiveness Initiative suggested: Advanced manufacturing --- Bio Sciences Coastal Energy --- Cyber Security Modelling and Simulation--- Unmanned Systems Entrepreneurship
Performance of Residential Housing Market During 2016 20
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e Millions of $ Value of Building Permits for One Unit Family Homes in Hampton Roads: 1991-2015 1600 1400 Value of permits increased by 5.4% in 2016; Our forecast was an increase of 3.4%. It is 37% below its peak in 2005 $1,338 1200 1000 800 $846 600 400 200 0 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project 21
Number of Existing and New Construction Homes Sold Hampton Roads: 2002-2016 Year Existing Homes Sold New Construction Homes Sold Percent New Construction 2002 19,869 4,969 20.0% 2003 21,421 4,757 18.2% 2004 23,548 4,587 16.3% 41% decline in sale of existing homes from 2005 to 2010 2005 24,755 4,379 15.0% 2006 22,405 4,327 16.2% 2007 19,154 3,912 17.0% 2008 15,046 3,178 17.4% 2009 15,851 2,673 14.4% 2010 14,703 2,265 13.4% existing homes Sales Have increased by 7,753 from 2010 to 2016 2011 15,818 2,366 13.0% 2012 16,856 2,664 13.6% 2013 18,791 2,878 13.3% 2014 18,700 2,485 11.7% 2015 20,595 2,954 12.5% 2016 22,456 3,219 12.5% Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region. 22
Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes Hampton Roads: 2002-2016 Year Median Price Percent change year to year 2002 $116,900 7.3% 2003 $130,000 11.2% 2004 $156,500 20.4% 2005 $192,000 22.7% 90% increase from 2002-07 2006 $214,900 11.9% 2007 $223,000 3.8% 2008 $219,000-1.8% 2009 $207,000-5.5% 19% decrease From 2007-11 2010 $203,900-1.5% 2011 $180,000-11.7% 2012 $185,000 +2.78% 2013 $190,000 +2.70% 2014 $193,205 +1.70% 2015 $203,000 +5.07% 2016 $210,000 +3.5% Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. 23
Estimated Inventory of Existing Residential Homes as Measured by Active Listings Hampton Roads: 2007, 2010, 2015, and 2016 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 Average ( Jan. 1996 through December 2016) = 8,037 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 2010 2015 2016 Source: Real Estate Information Network Inc. and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. 24
Estimated Months of Supply of All Existing Homes in Hampton Roads Based on Average Sales in the Last 12 Months: January 1996 December 2016 12 10 December 2016: 4.33 Peak: 10.24 (November 2010) 8 6 4 2 Average (Jan 1996- December 2016) = 5.66 months 4.33 0 Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. 25
Existing Residential Homes Sold and Average Days on the Market Hampton Roads: 2000-2016 30,000 120 25,000 20,000 15,000 17,058 18,924 67 61 24,755 19,154 65 83 15,046 14,703 102 88 18,791 84 20,595 22,456 75 100 80 60 10,000 27 28 40 5,000 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Homes Sold Average Days on Market 0 Source: Real Estate Information Network Inc. and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Days on Market is calculated from the date listed to the date under contract date for existing homes sold. 26
Summary on Existing Homes Market since 2011 Inventories have decreased substantially. Days on market have also decreased. Number of homes sold has increased. Estimated months of supply have declined substantially. But the median price of homes has increased only slightly The explanation lies in the size of the distressed market---which consists of short sales and bankowned homes (REOs). 27
Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Number of Active Listings of Distressed Homes (REO & Short Sales) Hampton Roads: June 2008 to December 2016 3,500 3,000 2,500 3,224 December 2016: 1,229 Peak: 3,224 (November 2010) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 606 1,229 0 Source: Real Estate Information Network (REIN) and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 28
Number of Existing Short Sale and REOs Residential Homes Sold Hampton Roads: 2006-2016 Year All Sales Short Sales Percent Short Sales REO Sales Percent REO Sales 2006 22,405 3 <1% 56 <1% 2007 19,152 40 <1% 223 1.2 2008 15,047 217 1.4 833 5.5 2009 15,849 598 3.8 2,271 14.3 2010 14,696 784 5.3 3,021 20.6 2011 15,817 1,127 7.1 4,213 26.6 2012 16,856 1,644 9.8 3,337 19.8 2013 18,791 1,769 9.4 3,178 16.9 2014 18,700 1,347 7.2 2,744 14.7 2015 20,592 1,230 6.0 2,542 12.3 2016 22,456 1,002 4.5 2,294 10.2 Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. 29
Housing Affordability 30
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (Weekly, ending Thursday) July 7, 2016 to January 19, 2017 4.32 4.09 3.41 3.47
Percent Housing Affordability: Monthly Payment for a Median Price Resale House as a Percent of Median Household Monthly Income Hampton Roads and the U.S. : 1979 to 2016 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 U.S. Hampton Roads 38.3 36.0 36.3 34.4 31.1 30.6 28.0 27.8 27.3 22.2 22.8 22.5 21.5 20.6 19.0 18.4 19.5 19.3 1979 1989 1999 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: The Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Prevailing 30 year average mortgage rate is used for each year. For example rate used for 2015 is 3.85 percent and for 2016 it is 3.65 percent 32
Estimated House Rental and Principal, Interest, and Taxes for a House Payment Hampton Roads: 2002-2016 Year Median Monthly Rent for a Three Bedroom House PI&T Monthly for a Median Priced Existing House Ratio of Monthly Rent to PI&T 2002 911 861 1.06 2003 1,037 890 1.16 2004 1,044 1,073 0.97 2005 1,087 1,315 0.83 2006 1,118 1,533 0.73 2007 1,164 1,598 0.73 2008 1,247 1,507 0.83 2009 1,236 1,307 0.95 2010 1,277 1,233 1.04 2011 1,319 1,071 1.23 2012 1,454 1,015 1.43 2013 1,570 1,080 1.45 2014 1,562 1,118 1.40 2015 1,530 1,154 1.33 2016 1,601 1,163 1.38 Source: H.U.D. and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. It is assumed that real estate tax rate is 1% and the tax reduction received by home owners would compensate for home owners insurance and maintenance expenditures. Prevailing 30 year average mortgage rate is used for each year. For example rate used for 2015 is 3.85 percent and for 2016 it is 3.65 percent 33
Old Dominion University 2016 Hampton Roads Scorecard Actual Change 2016* Predicted Change 2016 Taxable Sales +1.97% +3.60% Hotel Revenue +6.72% +4.20% Source: Virginia Department of Taxation, Smith Travel Research and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Figures for calendar year 2016 include predicted values for December 2016. 34
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e $ Billions Taxable Sales, Hampton Roads: 1996 to 2016 Taxable sales increased by 3.8% during 2015 and an estimated 2.0% during 2016. 25 20 20.56 20.98 22.21 15 10 5 0 Source: Virginia Department of taxation and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Figures for calendar year 2016 include predicted values for December 2016. 35
The Performance of the Hotel Industry in Hampton Roads 36
Percent Change in Hotel Revenue and REVPAR 2015 to 2016 14% 12% REVENUE REVPAR 10% 8% 6% 4% 4.8% 3.2% 6.2% 5.8% 6.7% 8.2% 2% 0% USA Virginia Hampton Roads Source: STR Trend Report January 24, 2017 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 37
Millions of $ 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Hotel Revenue in Hampton Roads 1996-2016 Hotel Revenue grew by 5.9 % during 2015 and by another 6.7 % during 2016. 708.3 804.7 Source: STR Trend Report January 24, 2017 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 38
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Available Hotel Rooms and Rooms Occupied in Hampton Roads (000s): 1991-2016 45.0 40.0 35.0 32,015 22,107 36,767 39,614 36,978 Available 30.0 Occupied 25.0 18,237 20.0 22,142 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Source: STR Trend Report January 24, 2017 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
Percent Change in Hotel Revenue within Hampton Roads: 2015 to 2016 14% 12% 11.85% 10% 8% 6% 4% 3.83% 4.71% 7.34% 6.72% 2% 0% 0.46% Source: STR Trend Report January 24, 2017 and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 40
Performance of the Port of Virginia 41
Million $ Operating Income/Loss for the Port of Virginia (In Million $) Fiscal Year 2006 through Fiscal Year 2016 (ending June 30) 20 15 10 5 0-5 $13.6 $4.8 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-10 -15-20 -25 -$20.7 -$20.1 -$11.1 -$16.9 Port of Virginia s Operating Income from January to October 2016 was $14.6M compared to $9.6M for the same time period in 2015. Source: Virginia Port Authority Comprehensive Annual Financial Report for Fiscal year 2015 and Fiscal Year 2016, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 42
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands Twenty-Foot Equivalent Container Units (TEUs) at the Port of Virginia: 1991 to 2016 TEUs increased by 4.2% in 2016; we had forecasted a 4.8% increase. Loaded TEUs increased by 4.8%,; empty TEUs increased by only 1.2%. 3,000 2,500 2,000 2,128.4 2,655.7 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 43
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Millions of Tons General Cargo Tonnage at the Port of Virginia: 1991 to 2016 General Cargo Tonnage increased by 4.5% in 2016; we forecasted a 2.7% increase. 25 20 15 17.73 20.87 10 5 0 Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 44
Millions of Containers Movement of Containers at the Port of Virginia by Type of Transportation: 2011 to 2016 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.10 1.21 1.27 1.37 1.45 1.50 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 Rail Barge & Truck TOTAL 0.20 0.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Percent of containers moved by rail has gradually increased from 31.9% in 2012 to 36.7% in 2016. Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project 45
Number of TEUs Average TEUs per Container Vessel Call 2011 to 2016 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1,158 1,201 1,307 1,341 1,410 1,512 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average TEU capacity of the largest 10 percent of Container Vessels calling at the port has increased from 5,691 TEUs in 2009 to 9,067 TEUs in 2014 or by 59% and this trend is continuing. Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project 46
Forecast for 2017 47
Old Dominion University 2017 Forecast for Hampton Roads MSA 2016* 2017 % Change Nominal Gross Regional Product $98.96B $103.17B Real Gross Regional Product** $86.73B $87.95B +1.41% Civilian Employment 768,975 772,820 +0.50% Unemployment Rate 4.59% 4.40% Taxable Sales $22.21B $22.79B +2.60% Hotel Revenue $804.70M $840.11M +4.40% General Cargo Tonnage 20.87M 21.43M +2.70% Housing Permit Value $846.38M $868.39M +2.60% *Figures for calendar year 2016 include predicted values for Dec. 2016. ** Base year is 2009 48
2017 Regional Summary Look for regional economic growth to be below its half-century annual average of 2.6 percent and also below that of the nation. The port, health-care industries, and tourism are likely to help the region s moderate economic expansion in 2017 Single-family home prices in 2017 are likely to continue to increase at a moderate pace. Inventories, sale volume, and days-on-market are all moving in the right direction. Months of supply of existing homes are lower than their historic average. Slightly higher Mortgage Rates Lingering distressed home volume remains a concern 49
The Dashboard: Center for Economic Analysis and Policy, Strome College of Business
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Old Dominion University 2017 National Economic Forecast January 25, 2017 Larry Chip Filer Associate Professor of Economics Strome College of Business www.odu.edu/forecasting
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 Real GDP Growth United States and Virginia 6 5 4 3.5 3 2 1.6 1 0-1 1.6 0.5-2 -3-4 Virginia United States Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Forecasts
1/1/08 5/1/08 9/1/08 1/1/09 5/1/09 9/1/09 1/1/10 5/1/10 9/1/10 1/1/11 5/1/11 9/1/11 1/1/12 5/1/12 9/1/12 1/1/13 5/1/13 9/1/13 1/1/14 5/1/14 9/1/14 1/1/15 5/1/15 9/1/15 1/1/16 5/1/16 9/1/16 Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment 150,000 145,000 140,000 + 15.5 Million Jobs 145,303 135,000 130,000 129,774 125,000 120,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Percentage Growth in Total Nonfarm Employment United States and Virginia 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-5.0-6.0 U.S. VA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Monthly Net Job Creation For Virginia During 2016 20,000 15,000 14,800 11,800 11,900 14,100 10,000 7,700 8,400 5,000 4,858 2,800 3,500 - -5,000-600 -4,500-10,000-15,000-10,600-9,700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Calculations
Rate of Headline Unemployment (U3) United States and Virginia 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 United States Virginia 0 1/1/12 7/1/12 1/1/13 7/1/13 1/1/14 7/1/14 1/1/15 7/1/15 1/1/16 7/1/16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Labor Force Participation Rates Are Starting to Stabilize 68.0 Labor Force Participation BLS Projection 66.0 64.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 56.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1/1/10 4/1/10 7/1/10 10/1/10 1/1/11 4/1/11 7/1/11 10/1/11 1/1/12 4/1/12 7/1/12 10/1/12 1/1/13 4/1/13 7/1/13 10/1/13 1/1/14 4/1/14 7/1/14 10/1/14 1/1/15 4/1/15 7/1/15 10/1/15 1/1/16 4/1/16 7/1/16 10/1/16 Labor Force Flows from Prior Month 6000 Emp. To NLF Unem. To NLF 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1/1/06 6/1/06 11/1/06 4/1/07 9/1/07 2/1/08 7/1/08 12/1/08 5/1/09 10/1/09 3/1/10 8/1/10 1/1/11 6/1/11 11/1/11 4/1/12 9/1/12 2/1/13 7/1/13 12/1/13 5/1/14 10/1/14 3/1/15 8/1/15 1/1/16 6/1/16 11/1/16 Virginia Labor Force Participation Rates 71.0 70.0 69.8 69.0 68.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 64.8 64.0 63.0 62.0 61.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Fed in 2017 There is an expectation of 3 rate increases during 2017 (75 basis points total). This would leave the Fed Funds Target at the range 1.25% to 1.50% by December. Meeting dates in 2017: Jan/Feb March May June July Sept/Oct December
Fed Dot Chart versus Taylor Rule Source: Janet Yellen, Speech to Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research on January 19, 2017.
Treasury Yield Curves 4 3.5 3 2.5 Jan. 2014 Jan. 2017 Jan. 2015 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1m 3m 6m 1y 2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 20y 30y Source: US Department of the Treasury
The Trump Administration Very difficult to forecast. Campaign rhetoric is always more political and ideological than actual policy proposals. A few things we know (or don t know): Repeal of ACA Infrastructure Bill Immigration reform Repeal of Dodd-Frank Renegotiation of Trade Agreements
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1997=100 $ Millions Trump s Trade Conundrum 140 120 100 80 60 100,000 - -100,000-200,000-300,000-400,000-500,000 40 20 0 $ Appreciation Trade Deficits -600,000-700,000-800,000-900,000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The Current National Recovery Recession End October 1945 February 1961 March 1991 Expansion Duration 80 months 106 months 120 months November 2001 73 June 2009 91 (ongoing) Source: National Bureau of Economic Research
Real GDP Growth Forecasts United States and Virginia 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 United States Virginia 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.02 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Forecasts
National Economic Outlook for 2017 2016 2017 Forecast Actual Forecast Real Gross Domestic Product 2.03% 1.60% est. 2.2% Employment Growth 1.50% 1.74% 1.5% Unemployment Rate 5.1% 4.9% 4.7% Consumer Price Index 1.34% 1.28% 2.80% CPI - Core 2.03% 2.21% 2.40% 3-Month Treasury Bill 1.25% 0.32% 1.31% 10-Year Treasury Bond 3.15% 1.84% 3.15% 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate 4.25% 3.65% 4.25%