Three-speed economic recovery Projection after 2012 GDP growth, percent 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Euro area -4-6 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: IMF WEO, April 2013. Emerging market and developing economies U.S.
China will dominate the world s economy Composition of global GDP in 2005 PPPs Percent of global GDP in 2011 Percent of global GDP in 2030 Rest of the World 25% United States 23% Rest of the World 27% China 28% Other OECD 18% Euro area 17% China 17% Other OECD 15% Euro area 12% United States 18% Source: OECD Economic Outlook 91 long-term database.
Unemployment remains high in Eurozone Unemployment rates (percent) 12 Eurozone 10 8 U.S. 6 U.K. 4 Japan 2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Datastream.
The Fed has engaged in quantitative easing repeatedly Total assets of Federal Reserve banks (US$ trillions) 4.0 3.0 2.0 03/2009: QE1 expanded 11/2008: QE1 announced 09/2011: "Operation Twist" 11/2010: QE2 announced 9/2012: QE3 announced 1 1.0 0.0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sources: Federal Reserve, Milken Institute.
S&P 500 volatility has decreased Chicago Board Options SPX Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) 90 80 70 60 50 40 Pre-crisis average, 2004 to June 2007: 13.6 30 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bloomberg.
Record low ten-year treasury yields Ten-year Treasury yield, percent 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 Average: 6.7 percent 2 0 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 Source: Bloomberg
U.S. gross public debt is roughly equal national income Percent of GDP 120 100 80 Gross Federal debt 60 40 20 Federal debt held by public 0 1961 1966 1971 1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: White House. 7
China s growth slows Quarterly GDP growth rate Percent change, year ago 16 14 12 10 8 6 Average, 1992-2011: 9.6% 2012: 7.8% 4 2 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: IMF.
Instability is increasing in the Middle East Political stability and absence of violence/terrorism index (-2.5 = greatest instability) Political Stability Index 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5-2 -2.5 Source: World Bank. 1996 2011 Yemen Syria Lebanon Iran Israel Egypt Libya Morocco Jordan Saudi Arabia UAE
U.S. cost of post-9/11 wars Department of Defense appropriations US$ billions 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2001/2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (est) Iraq Afghanistan Source: Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University.
Iran and Gulf armor strength 2012 Number of units 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Main battle tanks AIFV/Recce/Lt. tanks APC's AIFV/Recce/Lt. tanks not included 0 Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar UAE Yemen Israel Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies and Institute for National Security Studies.
Iran and Gulf naval strength 2012 Number of units 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia Major Naval Forces Gulf warships with anti ship missiles Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar UAE Yemen Israel Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies and Institute for National Security Studies.
U.S. troops on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq January 2002 December 2012 Number of troops 180,000 150,000 Iraq 120,000 90,000 60,000 Afghanistan 30,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Congressional Research Service and Brookings Institute.
Top 10 largest arms exporters 2008-2012 Russia 26% U.S. 30% Germany (FRG) 8% Others 12% France 6% China 5% UK 4% Italy 2% Ukraine 2% Spain 3% Israel 2% Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Top 10 largest arms importers 2008-2012 India, 11.7% China, 5.6% Pakistan, 5.3% South Korea, 4.9% Others, 50.5% Singapore, 4.1% Algeria, 3.9% Australia, 3.9% Saudi Arabia, 3.1% UAE, 3.2% U.S. 3.3% Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Top three arms exporters Constant 1990 US$ billions 18 16 USA 14 Russia 12 Germany (FRG) 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Largest arms suppliers to India 2008-2012 Arms exports to India and other selected countries Singapore South Korea Pakistan China Israel Uzbekistan U.K. Italy India Russia U.S. Others Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 US$ billions
Egypt s military expenditure 1990-2011 Percent of GDP 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: World Bank.
Egypt s arms imports 1990-2012 Constant 1990 US$ billions 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: Stockholm Peace Research Institute.
Mexico s drug war murders Number of murders per month 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: The Guardian and Trans-Border Institute, University of San Diego.
Top global seizures of amphetamines 2012 Mexico China Saudi Arabia U.S. Thailand Laos Syria Iraq Iran Germany (2) (2) (2) (3) (4) (9) (14) (14) (15) (20) Source: UNODC. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Thousand metric tons (percent of world total)
Income inequality: Selected countries 2012 South Africa Brazil Nigeria China U.S. U.K. India Japan Egypt Sweden Gini coefficients, maximum income inequality = 1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Sources: The Economist, OECD, World Bank.
Countries with biggest improvement in human development index since 1990 Percent increase in human developement index, 1990-2012 South Korea Iran China Chile Saudi Arabia Argentina Malaysia Tunisia Turkey Qatar 30 40 50 60 70 Note: Human development index is a composite index of indicators of life expectancy, educational attainment and income. Sources: The Economist, UNDP.
World s poorest countries in education, health and living standards 2012 Niger Ethiopia Mali Burundi Burkina Faso Liberia Guinea Somalia Mozambique Sierra Leone Percentage of population in multidimensional poverty 70 75 80 85 90 95 Note: Multidimensional poverty index is calculated based on data on household deprivations in education, health and living standards. Source: UNDP.
Larry Zimpleman slides
Global Risks That Keep Me Up at Night Economic Risk, Operational Risk and Cyber Risk Economic Risk United States Overuse of Monetary Policy Eurozone Austerity Fatigue China Out of the Shadows Globally Balkanization in Extreme
Global Risks That Keep Me Up at Night Economic Risk, Operational Risk and Cyber Risk Operational Risk Accounting Risk Is Fair Value, Fair? Regulatory Risk Regulators Amuck?
Global Risks That Keep Me Up at Night Economic Risk, Operational Risk and Cyber Risk Cyber Risk The New Dynamic Not Nerds Anymore The Hacker s Goal Front Door, Back Door The Best Defense Teamwork, Teamwork, Teamwork
This 12-story building on the outskirts of Shanghai is the headquarters of Unit 61398 of the People s Liberation Army Source: New York Times.