JOINT INDUSTRY FORECAST January 2018
10-YEAR GOALS NET NEW JOBS CAPITAL INVESTMENT PER CAPITA INCOME Current: 144,599 Current: $8.9B Current: 24.4% Goal: 150,000 Pace: 184,594 Goal: $8B Pace: $11.1B Goal: 30% Pace: 43.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS, seasonally adjusted by Columbus 2020, January 2010 November 2017 Source: Columbus 2020, as of December 2017 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2010 2016
A DECADE OF GROWTH Net new job growth is on pace to = $184,000+ Jan 2010 Nov 2017 144,599 Net Jobs Jan 2000 Dec 2009 2,999 Net Jobs Jan 1990 Dec 1999 137,535 Net Jobs 0K 50K 100K 150K 200K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted by Columbus 2020
REGIONAL ECONOMY Change in JobsOhio regional employment January 2010 to November 2017 Central (Columbus Region) 15.7% 147,400 Southwest (Cincinnati) 10.5% 101,878 Northwest (Toledo) West (Dayton) 7.9% 43,100 7.6% 42,600 Northeast (Cleveland, Akron) Southeast (Appalachia) 4.1% 78,400 4.0% 16,300 Source: Ohio LMI, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, not seasonally adjusted. Southwest (Cincinnati)
PRIVATE SECTOR JOB GROWTH Columbus MSA average annual private sector employment 803.5 827.6 851.5 873.0 892.9 910.5 753.5 775.7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, seasonally adjusted by Columbus 2020. Annual average for 2017 calculated through November.
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CONDITIONS FOR GLOBAL GROWTH U.S. exports, 1960-2016 $ million 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 U.S. companies exported $2.2 trillion in goods and services in 2016, down slightly from previous two years but still far above historical levels Source: Census Bureau
CONDITIONS FOR GLOBAL GROWTH U.S. net foreign direct investment, 1980-2016 $ million 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 In 2015, the U.S. reached record levels of FDI, but global foreign direct investment has declined for the past two years. 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Net FDI equals greenfield investment and acquisitions minus closures and dispositions back to domestic ownership.
GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS Fortune Global 500 companies by country in 2000 vs. 2017 United States Source: Fortune China Japan France Germany United Kingdom South Korea Netherlands Switzerland Canada 10 12 15 10 15 11 13 12 11 21 37 29 37 29 38 51 2000 2017 109 107 132 179 As of 2017, China boasted over 100 unicorns ($1B tech startups) and 8 decacorns ($10B tech startups)
COLUMBUS GLOBAL REACH Foreign HQ plus other key locations of Columbus Region firms Source: Columbus 2020
CONDITIONS FOR U.S. GROWTH Millennials are the United States largest living generation 80 million millennials Expected to benefit our market through 2036 and beyond The relative safety of the U.S. business and legal system remains a durable competitive advantage U.S. regulatory and tax policies are encouraging investment by domestic and international firms (short-term)
TECH GROWTH Top publicly traded companies by market capitalization Rank 2000 2017 1 General Electric Apple 2 Cisco Systems Alphabet 3 Exxon Mobil Microsoft 4 Pfizer Amazon.com 5 Microsoft Berkshire Hathaway 6 Wal-Mart Alibaba Group 7 Citigroup Tencent 8 Vodafone Facebook 9 Intel Corporation ExxonMobil 10 Royal Dutch Shell Johnson & Johnson Source: Financial Times, Wikipedia
BIG FIVE ON FORTUNE 500 10 100 200 300 400 500 Source: Fortune
TECH AND MANUFACTURING Columbus Region manufacturing output versus employment (indexed to 100 in 2001) 130 Output Employment 120 $12.2B 110 100 90 $10.5B 113K 80 86K 70 60 50 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: Moody s Economy.com (output in 2009 USD); EMSI
TECH AND MANUFACTURING In 1980 it took 25 jobs to generate $1 million in manufacturing output in the U.S. Today it takes five jobs. ( Manufacturing jobs aren t coming back, MIT Technology Review, November 18, 2016) Robots do my [old] job, and I am managing people that manage them. Automation manager at Wisconsin plant earning $120K/year who started career at $5.50/hour ( Despite fears, Mexico's manufacturing boom is lifting U.S. workers. Los Angeles Times, August, 21, 2016)
REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT COMPETITIVENESS AGENDA Meet the workforce challenge Increase global trade and investment Develop competitive infrastructure Generate highgrowth opportunities Increase manufacturing competitiveness It is more important than ever to define who is leading, influencing, and executing on these issues within our community.
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