Sugarcane, fires, and respiratory health in São Paulo, Brazil: A case study on the social implications of agro-energy production María Uriarte Ecology, Evolution & Environmental Biology Columbia University
Figure 2: Global Trends over Time in Yield, Cultivated Area, and Prices for Ten Major Crops 1000 55000 750000 800 50000 690000 600 45000 640000 400 40000 590000 200 35000 30000 USD Hectograms (inf. adj.) per Hectare 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Yield Cultivated Area Prices 540000 Hectares (thousands) Rudel et al. In review
Figure 3: The Geographic Distribution of Land Sparing Nations Rudel et al. In review
VARIABLE COEFFICIENT Intercept.151 (.025) *** Annual urban growth rate 2000-05.125 (.036) ** Total annual growth rate (2000-05) -.065 (.035) # % of agric. produc exported (2001-03).111 (.027) *** R 2.40 Adjusted R 2.35*** ***p<.001, **p<.01,*p<.05, #p<.10 DeFries et al. In review
Raw sugarpaste ($/ton). $/barrel 700 600 Yom Kippur war Oil Embargo Iran-Iraq war $50 $45 $40 500 $35 400 Gulf war $30 $25 300 200 9/11 $20 $15 $10 100 Sugarcane $5 Oil 0 $0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Social and environmental effects of sugarcane production in São Paulo 1. Air pollution and respiratory morbidity (Arbex et al. 2000, Lara et al. 2005, Martinelli et al. 2002, Cançado et al. 2006, Almeida 2006). 2. Degradation of aquatic ecosystems (Martinelli et al. 2002). 3. Exploitation of cane-cutters (Rodrigues 2006, Alves 2006). 4. Increased vulnerability to weather and market fluctuations?
Sugarcane, fires & respiratory health 1. What are the spatial links between sugarcane cultivation, occurrence of fires, and respiratory health at the state scale? 2. How can we ameliorate the effects of recent expansion in cane cultivation on respiratory health?
Sugarcane production by state (2005) Others Pernambuco Sao Paulo Alagoas Minas Parana
1990 2006 Area in sugarcane São Paulo
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Planted Area (ha) Planted area (ha) 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 Cotton Rice Beans Wheat Expansion of sugarcane in the state of Sao Paulo 150,000 100,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 6,000,000 2004 2005 2006 Sugarcane 50,000 5,000,000 Corn Soy 4,000,000 Total 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Percent (sugarcane) Percent (others) Value of sugarcane production in SP 80 25 70 60 20 50 40 30 15 10 Sugarcane Corn Soy 20 10 5 0 0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Standardized monthly salaries (R$2001) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 MONTHLY WORKER TRACTOR DRIVER MIGRANT WORKER 800 600 400 200 800 600 CREW LEADER JOURNEYMAN 400 200 ADMINISTRATOR
R 2 = 0.42 Data: INPE (NOAA-12)
Legal objectives to eliminate pre-harvest burning in Sao Paulo
April December
Fires/month (1999-2005) 6000 Sugarcane burning season 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Data: INPE, NOAA-12
Where there s fire. Smoke PM 2.5 TSP SO SO 2 2 Data: CETESB, Brasil
Respiratory disease counts 14000 12000 Sugarcane burning season 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Data: DATASUS, Brasilia
Mean Temperature (deg C) Total precipitation (mm) 35 500 MaxTemp MinTemp Precip 30 400 25 20 15 10 5 300 200 100 0 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D -100 Data: CIIAGRO, SP, Brasil
Statistical Model: Respiratory disease w ij ~ Binomial(s ij ) p w s i M 1 12 p i 1 Binomial w ij s ij logit s ij X ij Fires/ PPT ha X ij MaxTemp % Rural Sugarcanein1995 Muni( Random)
(A)CHILDREN (<10 YEARS OF AGE) Parameter Estimate Std. Err. z value Pr(> z ) Intercept -8.97 0.05-185.6 < 2e-16 Fires/km 2 0.19 0.03 7.65 2.0e-14 Max. Temp -0.02 0.03-0.69 0.49 Precipitation (PPT) -0.07 0.02-3.03 0.0025 Per. Rural -0.72 0.11-5.80 6.6e-09 PPT x Max Temp -0.56 0.05-10.49 < 2e-16 Max. Temp x PPT x Fires/km 2-0.83 0.14-5.86 4.7e-09 Sugarcane in 1995 (km 2 ) 0.23 0.08 2.76 0.0057 (B) ELDERLY (>60 YEARS OF AGE Parameter Estimate Std. Err. z value Pr(> z ) Intercept -10.15 0.07-131.6 < 2e-16 Fires/km 2 0.29 0.05 5.4 6.2e-08 Max. Temp -0.19 0.06-3.1 0.0017 Precipitation -0.31 0.05-6.6 4.7e-11 Per. Rural -0.88 0.18-5.0 5.4e-07 PPT x Max Temp -1.09 0.11-9.5 < 2e-16 Max. Temp x PPT x Fires/km 2-0.99 0.32-3.1 0.0020
ELDERLY PREDICTED /YR CASES/1,000 INDIVIDUALS ELDERLY OBSERVED CHILDREN PREDICTED CHILDREN OBSERVED
Cases per 1,000 individuals/yr associated with sugarcane burning ELDERLY CURRENT FIRE CHILDREN CURRENT FIRE CHILDREN CHRONIC FIRE
Current: 12% Current & chronic: 38% (State 5.4%) Current: 16% (State 1.8%)
Statistical Model: Lung cancer deaths and hospital admissions w ij ~ Binomial(s ij ) p w s i M 1 12 p i 1 Binomial w ij s ij logit s ij X ij % sugarcanein1993 X ij % Urban Muni( Random)
Respiratory cancer deaths and admissions (1996-2007) NUMBER OF DEATHS > 40 YRS OLD/10,000 IND./YR Parameter Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(> z ) Intercept -9.9645 0.0787-126.7 < 2e-16 *** % sugar 1993 0.2419 0.0641 3.8 0.00016 *** % urban 2000 0.3069 0.0817 3.8 0.00017 *** NUMBER OF ADMISSIONS > 40 YRS OLD/10,000 IND./YR Parameter Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(> z ) Intercept -8.1909 0.0991-82.7 < 2e-16 *** % sugar 1993 0.1880 0.0489 3.8 0.00012 *** % urban 2000 0.3338 0.0552 6.0 1.5e-09 ***
% land surface in sugarcane (1993) % population urban (2000) Number of deaths per 10,0000/yr from respiratory cancer (1997-2007)
Number of deaths > 40 yrs old/yr from respiratory cancer per 10,0000 indiv associated with sugarcane burning (1997-2007) Number of deaths > 40 yrs old/yr from respiratory cancer per 10,0000 indiv associated with urban centers (1997-2007) 35 deaths/yr 153 admissions/yr 448 deaths/yr 2389 admissions/yr
Socio-environmental effects of sugarcane production 1. What are the spatial links between sugarcane cultivation, occurrence of fires, and respiratory health? 2. How can we ameliorate the effects of sugarcane cultivation on respiratory health? Identify most vulnerable areas Identity non-suitable areas
INCREASE IN SUGAR 2003-2007 (KM 2 ) PREDICTED % INCREASE IN FIRES/KM 2 PRED. % INCREASE IN ELDERLY ATTRIB. TO FIRE PRED. % INCREASE YOUNG CASES ATTRIB. FIRE
Effect of increase in sugarcane from 2003-2007 550 more fires 140-180 more elderly cases 200-250 more children cases
Identify areas non-suitable for cultivation Identify areas that are not mechanizable (fields are >12% slope or < 150 ha). Exclude areas within 50-500 meter buffer of rivers & streams.
Hectares of sugarcane to abandon 0-700 700.1-1,800 1,800.1-3,500 3,500.1-7,000 7,000.1-16,500 Kilometers 0 37.5 75 150 225 300
Summary Link between sugarcane, fire, and respiratory health of children & elderly. Identified municipalities that have the highest incidence of cases attributable to fire. Identified areas that are not suitable for sugarcane cultivation. Overlap & tradeoffs
Other considerations Effects on biodiversity. Mechanization may reduce the number of fires but at the expense of jobs. Effects of sugarcane processing on water resources. Effects of increased demand for sugar.