Application of the Model-Based Knowledge System LandCaRe DSS to Pilot Regions for Climate Change Adaptation in Germany Analyses at Regional and Local Scale Barbara Köstner, Erhard Albert, Michael Berg, Christian Bernhofer, Tobias Donix, Ulrich Henk, Johannes Franke, K. Christian Kersebaum, Matthias Kuhnert, Wilfried Mirschel, Claas Nendel, Karl- Otto Wenkel, Ralf Wieland www.landcare-dss.de
www.landcare-dss.de German agricultural sector RAUMIS evaporation BAGLUVA temperature climatic water balance climatic indices phenology wine PHÄNO precipitation EÖM-MONICA EÖM-YIELDSTAT net returns farm CO 2 H 2 O forest grassland SVAT-CN climate stations GL-PROD BAGLUVA grassland TREND SAISON FREQUENZ ground water recharge fruits water irrigation BERBEDÜ ZUWABE EROSION erosion ONTO YIELDSTAT yield plant development rotation fertilisation soil management MONICA seepage N percolation C turnover
LandCaRe DSS: scales National: Germany Regional: political districts or catchments Local: farms time span: 1951-2050/2100 WETTREG, CLM (REMO) temporal resolution: 1 day spatial resolution of soil data: 100 m grid length spatial resolution of climate data: 18 km (10 km, 1 km)
Change of Yield in Regions of Saxony Analysis of yield data from 1956 to 2007 in different production regions Low impact of CC on loess soils High impact of drought on sandy soils Standortregionen Erzgebirgskamm und vorland, Vogtland, Elsterbergland High variation of yield, especially in dry years for summer crops and maize, potatoes, beet and grassland Mittelsächsisches Lößgebiet Oberlausitz, Sächsische Schweiz Mountain range: Sächsisches Heidegebiet, Riesaer-Torgauer-Elbtal Under sufficient water supply increase in yield of winter crops, maize and beet
Change of Yield in Saxony (1956-2007) Winterweizen-Ertrag dt/ha 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Winter Wheat Maize (silage) Grassland Sachsen 1955-2007 b = 0,8484 1955-1991 b = 0,8035 1992-2007 b = 0,7331 Mais-Ertrag dt/ha 700 600 500 400 300 200 Sachsen 1956-1991 b = 1,901 1956-2007 b = 1,363 1992-2007 b = -0,920 Dauerwiesen/Mähweiden-Heuertrag dt/ha 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Sachsen Saxony Saxony Saxony 2003 1955-1991 b = 0,8128 1992-2007 b = -0,8437 20 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1955-2007 1955-1991 1992-2007 100 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1956-2007 1956-1991 1992-2007 20 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1955-1991 1992-2007 breeding & technology drought effects fertilisation effects regression lines: before reunification after reunification
Change of Yield in Saxony (1956-2007) Winterweizen-Ertrag dt/ha 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 Winter Wheat Maize (silage) grassland 1955-2007 b = 0,8484 1959-2006 b = 0,8007 1955-1991 b = 0,8035 Mais-Ertrag dt/ha 700 500 400 300 200 Sachsen 1956-1991 b = 1,901 1956-2007 b = 1,363 1992-2007 b = -0,920 Dauerwiesen/Mähweiden-Heuertrag dt/ha 110 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Sachsen 1992-2006 Kreis Sachsen Saxony Freiberg b = 1,1393 Saxony Saxony 1992-2007 100 b = 0,7331 600 higher elevations 1959-1989 b = 0,7355 1955-1991 b = 0,8128 1992-2007 b = -0,8437 20 20 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 19801985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1955-2007 1955-1991 1992-2007 Kreis Freiberg Kreis Freiberg Kreis Freiberg Kreis Freiberg 1955-2006 1959-1989 1992-2006 100 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1956-2007 breeding & technology drought effects fertilisation effects 1956-1991 1992-2007 regression lines: before reunification after reunification 20 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1955-1991 1992-2007
Simulation of Future Yield with YIELDSTAT Relative change of yield in 2021-2050 compared to 1976-2005 Saxony winter wheat silage maize winter rye winter rape winter barley No CO 2 fert., no technol. + CO 2 fert., + progress FACE Manderscheid, Weigel et al. humid dry pessimistic optimistic
LandCaRe DSS: Simulation of Regional Irrigation Need Uecker catchment in Brandenburg WETTREG A1B 2025-2055 www.landcare-dss.de
Conclusions Model-based knowledge systems support integrative analyses and strategic planning (crossing scales, cross-sectional) Regional climate change and should be analysed from climatic projections of the future and trends of the past Modelling impact (yield, ecological functions) of climate change needs to be supported by continued monitoring Uncertainty in predicting long-term trends of agricultural yield is related to lack of knowlege on processes related to agronomy (CO 2 -fertilisation, progress in breeding, technology, etc.) and to the realisation of weather in climate projections www.landcare-dss.de
Perspectives of the LandCaRe DSS will be used in regional working groups of farmers and the extension authority in Saxony will be transferred to other regions in Germany may be further developed to transfer knowledge on ecosystem services Posters Model MONICA C. Nendel, Ch. Kersebaum et al. (no. 324) CO 2 -fertilisation effect R. Manderscheid, H.-J. Weigel, M. Erbs (no. 147,149, 150) www.landcare-dss.de
Land, Climate and Resources - Decision Support System: LandCaRe DSS Yield Ecosystem Services Regional climate change: various downscaling methods and emission scenarios - WETTREG, CLM, (REMO) A1B, B1 Past and Future Climate 1951-2100 Plant Production Ecological Indicators Water and N Fluxes Local Regional Models and Parameters User Interface + socio-economic scenarios on land-use and prices www.landcare-dss.de
Simulation of Future Yield in Saxon Regions Relative change of yield in 2021-2050 compared to 1976-2005 Winter wheat mountain range sandy soil
LandCaRe DSS: National Map of Irrigation Need Simulation for 2021-2040 J. Anter, R. Stonner, H. Gömann, vti www.landcare-dss.de
Regional Climate Change of the Past Absolute trend of temperature ( C) in spring (left) and summer (right) data 1951-2000 Meteorologie, TU Dresden
Regional Climate Change of the Past Absolute trend of temperature ( C) in fall (left) and winter (right) data 1951-2000 Meteorologie, TU Dresden
Regional Climate Change of the Past Relative trend of precipitation (%) in summer (left) and winter (right) data 1951-2000 Meteorologie, TU Dresden