Assessment of socio economic benefits of non-motorized transport (NMT) integration with public transit (PT) Case study of Bike share (BS) system in Pune, India Parvesh Kumar Sharawat Department of Policy Studies TERI School of advance studies Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070, India
Research Question and Hypothesis Research Question - Will provision of a bike share system influence modal choice of existing and potential commuters to benefit individual users and the city? Hypothesis 1 Hypothesis 2
Research objectives To examine the importance of NMT and PT integration in urban transport and the relevance of Bike Sharing (BS) system in that context To assess the benefits and key variables of modal choice of BS system To quantitively analyse the potential mode shift variables and assess the modal shift of commuters in an identified case study city To derive the individual and the city benefits due to potential modal shift.
Objective 3 & 4 Objective 1 & 2 Methodological Approach Data analysis and results - Correlation matrix analysis - Logistic regression modelling (stated and revealed preference)
Literature review Significant indicators affecting the mode shift to BS Cyclist or non-cyclist Age Gender Household size Household monthly income Personal monthly income Occupation Vehicle ownership Bicycle ownership Frequency of trip Purpose of trip Access and egress time Mainline time and distance Bicycle theft Perception of transportation system and cycling infrastructure Willingness to pay for BS Frequency of reference i.e., most commonly referred variables Derivability from the benefits Methodological consistency
Literature review Benefit of BS and PT integration Individual Users benefits Reduced cost of travel - access and egress to PT Improved health Improvement in safety and comfort of cyclist Change in access and egress travel time to PT Cost saving for school trips The City benefits Encourages smart growth mixed land use will reduce the trip length thus making the city more cycle friendly Rationalization of parking demand Better street interface The City benefits Reduced heat islands due to decrease in number of motorized vehicles Municipal expenditure reduction on public health care Municipality has to spend less money on constructing expensive Motor Vehicle infrastructures Decrease in Pollution Fossil fuel consumption reduction Decrease in congestion Economic equity Social equity gender equity Improvement in work trips accessibility of low-income users
Stratified sampling 2500 sample size Residential, Institutional, Commercial and transportation nodes Case study - Pune
Case study - Pune
Mode share comparison Mode share (%) HH Survey (2016) CMP (2008) Metro DPR (2012) Walk 46.9 22.0 25.0 25 Cycle 3.06 11.1 8.8 18 4W 5.54 10.2 6.3 12 2W 29.04 37.2 38.6 29 IPT 11.3 7.2 8.3 6 PT 4.16 12.3 13.0 10 Wilbur Smith (2008) PCTRA 1.92 1.3-1.26 Total number 6635200 399113 4865117 - of trips Population 34,61,497 (PMC area) 29,70,000 (projected for 2007 from 2001 census PMC area) 37,56,345 (projected for 2011 from 2001 census - PMC area) 42,00,000 (2001-PMR area)
Logistic regression modelling approach
Results of logistic regression Significant indicators Access Egress Short trips Long trips MLH time likelihood increases with MLH Gender women are more likely to use Age less likely to used with increasing age MLH time likelihood increases with MLH Occupation - businessman, housewives and students less likely to use Cyclist non cyclists less likely to use Gender women are less likely to use Frequency of trip occasional travellers are less likely to use Perceptions - strong believer of Pune transport system is generally safe are more likely to use. And strong believers of Pune transport system has no adverse effect on health are less likely to use. Also, believers of Separate cycle tracks on busy main roads as important cycling infrastructure are more likely to use. Gender women are less likely to use the PT WTP respondents who are willing to pay upto INR 200 for monthly subscription are more likely to use the PT. However, probability decreases with further increase in subscription charges.
Logistic regression user survey City demographic (2016 projected population) total trips Modelled probability of shift Extrapolation on HH data PCTR, short and long trips Potential modal shift to Bike share system Modal shift at various cut off probability points Benefits estimation
Potential modal shift to Bike share system Mode 0.5 cut off 0.6 cut off 0.7 cut off 0.8 cut off 0.9 cut off Short trips to BS Long trips to PT Short trips to BS Long trips to PT Short trips to BS Long trips to PT Short trips to BS Long trips to PT Short trips to BS Long trips to PT Walk 99% 100% 92% 100% 69% 33% 42% 33% 8% 0% Cycle 100% 93% 99% 93% 95% 58% 75% 51% 29% 0% 2wheeler 96% 90% 92% 91% 74% 62% 32% 38% 6% 0% Car 100% 85% 91% 85% 61% 50% 30% 35% 0% 0% PT 99% - 89% - 67% - 31% - 5% - Auto 95% 75% 84% 75% 65% 17% 40% 17% 7% 0% Total 98% 88% 91% 89% 71% 44% 40% 35% 9% 0% At 0.5 probability cut off point there is high percentage shift to BS and PT which becomes almost zero when the probability cut off point increases to 0.9. The probability cut off point of 0.8 has revealed moderate shift of 35-45% which has also been observed in the other modal shift studies as well (Bajracharya, 2008; Fatima & Kumar, 2014; 3; 10; P V, Thomas, & Sam, 2014; Rastogi, 2010; Thamiz Arasan & Vedagiri, 2011; Vedagiri & Arasan, 2009)
Potential modal shift to Bike share system Mode Existing 0.5 cut off 0.6 cut off 0.7 cut off 0.8 cut off 0.9 cut off Walk 47% 11.5% 14.0% 22.4% 32.1% 43.9% Cycle 3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 2.3% Bike share 0% 63.3% 59.2% 45.4% 25.4% 5.2% Two wheeler 29% 4.6% 5.1% 10.8% 20.1% 28.1% Car 6% 0.9% 1.1% 2.8% 3.9% 5.5% PT 11% 18.8% 19.3% 16.2% 14.9% 11.0% Auto rickshaw 4% 0.8% 1.2% 2.2% 2.9% 4.0% It was presumed that Pune will have a functional BS system and supporting NMT infrastructure to operate a city-wide BS system. Thus, potential mode shifts to BS system, at 0.8 cut off value, are expected under these conditions. However, in case the assumptions are not met, then the minimal mode shift at 0.9 cut off value will be more realistic. This will result in no potential shift to PT, and minimal shift from current PT and IPT users (12%) to BS system for short distance trips. The sizable percentage of potential shift will be from current cyclists (29%) and people who are walking (8%) for short distance trips There will be marginal shift from current two-wheeler users (6%) and no potential shift from car users to BS system for short distance trips. It is clear that the potential mode shift to BS system will be only for short distance trips and largely from walking and cycling users in the city.
Benefits - Existing and BS system scenario Benefit Existing Scenario BS scenario Reduced cost of travel of access and egress to PT Change in access and egress travel time to PT Cost saving for school trips due to use of PT and Bike share by school children Improvement in safety and comfort of cyclist due visibility created by Bike share system 0 0 Access and Egress Access and Egress time 35% MLH time 12.5 % MLH INR 3.0 approx. for 0 INR per trip Auto users, INR 4.0 approx. for two wheeler and PT users 3% 0.7%
Benefits - Existing and BS system scenario Benefit Cut off Cut off Cut off Cut off Cut off (0.5) (0.6) (0.7) (0.8) (0.9) Changes in congestion 20% 21% 13% 9% -1% Parking demand rationalization 54% 52% 35% 20% 1% Reduction in Municipal MV infrastructure development 53% 51% 34% 20% 1% Reduction in Fossil fuel consumption 80% 79% 53% 31% 1% Reduction in CO 2 emission 78% 77% 53% 30% 1% Economic equity 42% 40% 31% 19% 4% Social equity 24% 21% 9% 4% 0.2 % Improvement in work trips accessibility of low income HH users 8% 8% 6% 4% 0.6 %
Results and conclusions Pollution, congestion, fuel consumption, parking demand and investment in MV infrastructure Functional NMT infrastructure Safe NMT infrastructure
Policy and practice implications Bike share (BS) system as last mile would have more takers for mass transit with longer MLH like Metro and BRT and should be integrated. Investing in a city-wide bike share system will have higher impact in attaining sustainable mode shares than investing in a PT system for mid sized and small cities. Subscriptions are useful because people are more likely to use if they have already paid for it but subscription charges should be optimal. Women targeted outreach programs.
THANK YOU The research acknowledges the project Pune bicycle plan being led by itrans Pvt. Ltd. in partnership with CEE and PDA under which part of the data has been collected.