THE SOCIAL IMPACT OF BICYCLE IN SÃO PAULO May 2018
d d d d d Objective To estimate the impact of bicycle use in the city of in three areas: Environment, Health and Economy Area Dimensions Indexes Analyze of impacts Environment Wellbeing during the trips Perceptions of comfort and discomfort during the trips Wellbeing reflected by the time spent in outdoor activities Total of CO2 emitted for each mans of transportation Frequency in public spaces Felling of safety in everyday life Perception of problems of the city Reduction of CO2 by exchanging the original means of transport to bicycle Health Pattern of physical activities : sedentary, moderately active and regularly active No physical activities as risk factor to diseases Comparison between population of the city of São Paulo and cyclists Potential amount of money saved in health care public system (SUS) Economy Individual expenditures with transportation Productivity associated with commuting time duration Potential increase in disposable income by exchanging the original means of transport to bicycle Potential increase in GDP
Design and research methodology Survey and sample Survey of June/ December 2017 1,100 interviews at home from September 20 to October 10, 2017 Sample of the population of the city of Complementary sample with users of bicycles in the city of SP Individual who did bicycle trip on the working day before the interview Probabilistic samples with quotas in the Sensus sector (gender, age and education) ensure representativeness and comparability (weighting PNAD/2013 and OD/2007). Structured questionnaire in eight blocks: General block: demographic profile of the population. Mobility: a) routes and means of transportation used in the trips made in the last working day b) feelings during the the every day trips c) transportation costs d) frequency of use of each means of transportation over the last week Problems with the city: perception about the city and the problems that affect personally. Well-being: exposure time in public spaces. Violence: feeling of security in the city. Health: International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ)- short form. Economy: personal e family budget (POF/ IBGE form).
Environment
Feelings during the journey Rarely or never Occasionally Always or almost always feature less stress, irritation, fear of delay and discomfort in their trips Stress or annoyance reported more feelings of well-being during their journeys, like pleasure, relaxation and satisfaction Feeling of pleasure during every day trips Afraid of dalay Feeling of pleasure during every day trips Discomfort Satisfaction Feeling of insecurity
Reduction of CO 2 emissions If the cycling potential was reached, there would be up to 18% of a reduction of the CO2 emissions from transport in the city of Travels that could be made with bike by means of transportation Bus Easily cycled Bus Cycled Share of emission of each means of transportation in (bus and automobiles) Automo bile Trips that cannot be cycled Cars Easily cycled Bus Cars Easily cycled Cycled Trips that cannot be cycled Other means of transpor tation Cycled Trips that cannot be cycled In addition, it is estimated that the current riders decrease 3% of CO2 emission of daily trips of the city
Health
Physical activity, inactivity and cycling Proportion of individuals regularly active among cyclists is almost three times the size of the population Physical activity profile Inactive Irregularly active Regularly active Certain groups of the population could expand your physical activity level Regularly active in class and age groups Population of of 1. Regularly active: last week, vigorous physical activities carried out in at least 3 different days and with a minimum duration of 20 minutes a day; 2. Irregularly active: performed physical activities in the last week, but less than the minimum enough to be considered regularly active; 3. Inactive: did not moderate or vigorous physical activity in the last week. Total Classes Age groups Cycling would have the greatest impact on the physical activity of the lower classes 53% of the time of physical activity of cyclists is bike trips
Impact in the reduction of expenses in the public health system (SUS) What would happen if the profile of physical activity of the population of the city mirrored the cyclists? Risk factors associated with physical activity profile Groups Inactive Irregularly active Regularly active Spent on SUS with circulatory system diseases and diabetes in the city of Total saved Heart disease Hypertension Heart attack Depression and anxiety Breast cancer Osteoporosis Colon cancer savings Source: Garrett et al. (2004) 13% of the total reduction in expenses in the SUS with hospitalizations due to diseases of the circulatory system and diabetes
Economy
Increase in disposable income Based on the detailed information of individuals' monthly expenses, we calculate the share of transport expenses in the monthly income (such as bus fare, gasoline, parking) % individuals monthly income average spent on transportation % individuals monthly income average spent on transportation if biclicle trips were made by bicycle % Average monthly saving Reduction potential of personal income spent on transport by class Reduction potential of personal income spent on transport by profile daily travel 14 p. p. of economy A/B class C/D class People who use more public transportation People who use more public motorized individual transport Adoption of the bicycle in daily journeys has the potential of increasing the disposable income, especially, in the lower classes Among those who use more individual motorized transportation, the potential savings exceed R$ 400
Decrease in the time spent on the trips to work The faster commuters travel to work, the higher the productivity is, with potential for increase in GDP (Haddad & Vieira, 2015) We use trips to work up to five miles or eight kilometers, made of car or by bus to calculate the potential based on modal replacement for the bike (from source to destination) Faster travels Time saved Higher the productivity Increase in GDP If the population of São Paulo change the car for the bike, what would be the impact on municipal GDP? of trips are made by car, up to 8 km and are gone and back to work. Of these, 26% would be faster if done by bike. minutes per person per day, on average. more on GDP per day per person. R$ 18.751.053 or 0,003% on GDP in 2015¹ ². And if change were made by bus to bike, what would be the impact on municipal GDP? of trips are made by bus, up to 8 km and are gone and back to work. Of these, 45% would be faster if done by bike. minutes per person per day, on average. more on GDP per day per person. R$ 623.075.941 or 0,096% on GDP in 2015³ 4.
Decrease in collective duration of the travels How to measure the gain with these changes? With fewer cars circling, there would be a collective gain, with decreased congestion, less "waste of time in transit" to the set of cars in their trips and potential increase in productivity in the economy. Faster travels Time saved Higher the productivity Increase in GDP If the decrease in time lost in congestion was accounted for in GDP of travel time of cars are lost in congestion (CET, 2016). minutes would be reduced in the time wasted by other drivers to each change more on GDP per day per person. R$ 225.996.490 or 0,035% on GDP in 2015 5 6.
Carlos Torres Freire catorresfreire@cebrap.org.br Victor Callil victor.callil@cebrap.org.br Dafne Sampaio (Communication) +55 (11) 94489-8212 +55 (11) 5574-0399 ext. 228 comunicacao@cebrap.org.br