November 10, 2017
Beef Prices on most items are higher as beef processors pass higher cattle costs on. Ribeye and tender prices are getting close to last years peaks, so we may have seen most of the usual seasonal price increase already. Ground Beef Brisket Inside Round Ribeye Strips Ball Tips Tenders Flank Steak Next s Projections Up Down Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Pork Exports and frozen inventory accumulation continue to support butt and ham prices. Casual dining and BBQ restaurants are featuring ribs with prices moving higher. We are also seeing good pre-holiday processor demand for pork bellies for bacon and raw ham to make spiral hams. Loin prices remain soft. Butts Ham Spare Ribs Loin Bacon Next s Projections Up Up Up Down Up Up Up Up
Chicken Production has been running 3-4% higher this fall at a time when demand is traditionally slow. This has left prices on the defensive, especially breast meat which set a new record low.tenderloin prices are steady due to restaurant boneless wing features. Wing prices are still falling, but the level of discounting is much less. Next s Projections Breast Tenderloins Thigh Jumbo Wings Med Wings Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Turkey Aggressive retail features including BOGOs are giving the industry hope that large turkey inventories may get cleaned up. Next s Projections Hens Toms Breast
Cod - Alaskan (1x Fzn) ly we have good supply of the Alaskan cod at a stable cost. Cod - Atlantic (1x Fzn) ly there is good supply of the cod loins out of Canada. Cost is stable and supply is adequate at this time on all sizes 4,5 and 6 oz. Cod - Atlantic (2x Fzn) Raw material forecasts to remain firm until Spring 2018. Cod - Pacific (2x Fzn) Raw material to remain firm until Spring of 2018. Crab - Snow The Canadian snow crab season has wrapped up and there are few loads being offered. Prices remain elevated at this time and product is short on the market. All will wait to see the quota announcement for the Alaskan season in October which will impact the cost of crab going into the 2018 season. Euro Lake Fish & Zander Great supply for a steady cost of goods. These items can be a price fighting alternative to the higher priced domestic lake fish. Flounder/Sole Raw material extremely tight. Prices have increased 30%
Frog Frog prices have firmed as we await new season arrivals in the fall. Gator The gator season started this month. To date there is very limited information coming out of the south in relation to the harvest and if the added rains have impacted the season. For now costs have firmed on the farmed as the need for hides has decreased therefore affecting the cost meat. Lobster - Brazil The Brazil offering has continued to be weak to date. Cost have increased slightly from the beginning of the season but there is not an overabundance of supply. Lobster - North Atlantic Costs took a slight decrease this summer but have rebounded slightly as of late on most sizes of tails. The larger sized tails in the 6/7 and 8/10 oz range have been very hard to come buy and have greatly increased in cost. We do not expect much relief on these sizes until the fall Nova Scotia fishing season that typically yields a larger percentage of larger lobsters and tails. Meat prices have decreased over the summer but some costs have increased as of late for standard CK and CKL meat. Overall this market has been soft and uncertain. Mahi Mahi Costs for mahi mahi have remained elevated due to the sever lack of world supply out of both South America and Asia for 2017. Taiwan #'s indicate that the catch was off by as much as 60 %, The S American Peru season resumes in October, however due to current market conditions and the severe lack of overall supply, they do not expect costs to ease for several months. Plan accordingly on supply to get well through the holiday season. Perch & Walleye Perch and walleye supply have been strong for the 2017 season, however costs have remained firm as of late mostly due to the exchange. Most of the perch quota has been caught while the bulk of the walleye to be harvested October and November. Pollock - Atlantic (1x Fzn) prices are stable and supply is good on the smaller 2/4 oz IQF and SP sizes in addition to the SP 4/6 oz as well. As product is harvested out of the Gulf of Alaska we are hoping for added offerings in the larger 4/6 IQF size. The 6/8 oz size SP are still expected to be short and or limited for the rest of the 2017 B season. Costs are relatively stable for good demand. Start planning accordingly for an early Lenten season.
Scallops The scallop quota was increased for 2017 and to date supply has been good with no interruptions. Costs have been lower than previous years through the course of the summer. AS the bulk of the season / harvest wraps up in the fall expect to see some uptick in costs as we move through the winter and into the spring. Sea Bass Good supply with a slower demand. Costs have softened slightly as new supply has arrived into the US. Shrimp - Asian Black Tiger Black tiger shrimp remain firm as supply overseas continues to be lower than demand. Prices have elevated in most supplying countries as retailers and foodservice alike have attempted to bulk up for the holidays. Expect spotty supply as we continue on with most producers shifting to white shrimp production. Shrimp - Asian White Asian white shrimp markets have firmed up over the last month as demand has outpaced supply. US inventory levels will ultimately drive market movement in the next 1-3 months as the next major production time period is not far out. Shrimp - Domestic Peeled (PUD) Domestic peeled prices are starting to firm as supply was halted during the recent hurricanes. There should be more production this fall on middle range sizes, but expect markets to firm on small peeled. Shrimp - Domestic Rock & Pink Rock shrimp has been caught in decent numbers leading up to hurricane Harvey and as such stock levels are stable. Prices remain high for this sought after species, while pink shrimp remains a good value alternative. Shrimp - Domestic White & Brown Headless Domestic white production has been good so far this season and prices have come into very good levels. Brown shrimp production has also been good and prices adjusted as such. Expect demand to be good while these domestic products are at good values. Shrimp - Latin Whites Latin white shrimp markets are firm as replacement cost is above current local offers. Swai Raw material scarce. USDA mandatory inspections and raw material shortage will keep prices firm.
Tuna - Frozen Vietnam has reported reduced catches over the last month by as much as 30% on tuna. Many are predicting higher prices this fall also partly due to the lack of supply out of Indonesia as well. For now there is adequate supply and stable costs. Whitefish Whitefish supplies are ample and costs have been steady for some time. The bulk of the whitefish will be harvested in the fall season to last through the spring.
Cheese The CME Block and Barrel markets have had some untraditional movement as of late. The bulls returned to the market to push the Block and barrels up but still in an inverted position. Speculators feel the inverted position will change in the coming days. Eggs Retail demand good to very good. Large short. Market firm. Butter Production is active in many parts of the country as inventories are at acceptable levels to meet needs at this point. Demand is steady but not overwhelming both inventories and production., while down to its lowest point in the spot market since March of this year, is still higher than historical averages. Block Cheese Barrel Cheese Butter Large Eggs Medium Eggs Small Eggs Last Up Up Down Up Up Up Down Down Down Up Up Up
Wheat Wheat costs have stabilized with flour costs settling about 10% higher than last year. Last High Gluten Semolina Soybean Oil Soybean harvest is almost complete. Prices are stuck in the middle of the USDA s price forecast range. Last Soybean Oil Up Sugar Cash sugar prices are firm to higher amid tight domestic supplies and slow imports from Mexico. Last Sugar Up
Low temperatures have caused incidences of lettuce ice in California s Salinas Valley. Rain is also forecast this week, which could cause delays and quality issues. Many growers have transitioned iceberg harvests to Huron, California bridging the gap before Yuma, Arizona shipments increase later this month. Tomato prices are escalating as California production comes to an end and regions in Central and South Florida expect extremely low yields over the next four to six weeks. Cauliflower Due to recent erratic weather conditions in California s growing regions, supplies remain below projected numbers. Expect limited stocks. Celery The market is climbing. Demand has increased due to upcoming harvesting transitions and the Thanksgiving holiday. Melons MFC Cantaloupe and Honeydew Melons will be sporadic through November 18. Large sizes continue to dominate fall crops (9-count cantaloupes and 5-count honeydews).