Volume 37 Issue 17 Date: December 12, 2018 Murray /Sooners In The Playoffs College Football Recap COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAME PICKS LET'S GO BOWLING! The College Football Playoff is set. Unbeaten and top-ranked Alabama will square off against No. 4 Oklahoma, the Big 12 champion, at the Orange Bowl in Miami in one semifinal matchup on Dec. 29. The other game is also on Dec. 29 and will be at Jerry World in Arlington, where undefeated and second-ranked Clemson will take on unbeaten No. 3 Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl. The winners will collide in the finals on Jan. 7 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern in Santa Clara at Levi s Stadium, the home of the NFL s San Francisco 49ers. Lincoln Riley s squad avenged its only loss of the season a 48-45 setback vs. Texas in the Red River Rivalry by beating the Longhorns 39-27 in Saturday s Big 12 Championship Game at Jerry World. The Sooners will be underdogs for the first time this season. They were dogs three times last year in Riley s first season since taking over for Bob Stoops, compiling a 2-1 record both SU and ATS. OU lost a 54-48 decision to Georgia as a 2.5-point dog in last year s CFP semifinals in Pasadena. This is Oklahoma s richest underdog spot since the 2013 Sugar Bowl, where OU thumped Alabama by a 45-31 count as a 15-point puppy. The Sooners have won outright in both of their most recent situations as double-digit dogs, beating Oklahoma St. 33-24 in Stillwater as 10-point road dogs in the 2013 regular-season finale. These storied programs played a home-and-home series back in 2002 and 2003. OU won a 37-27 decision in Norman as a 12.5-point favorite. The Sooners went to Tuscaloosa the following season and won 20-13 at Bama, but the Tide covered the number once again as a 7.5-point home underdog. Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had to leave the SEC Championship Game with a foot injury that s expected to have him sidelined for at least two weeks. Without the sophomore QB, back-up and former starter Jalen Hurts rallied the Crimson Tide from a 28-14 deficit to win 35-28 over Georgia in an epic thriller. Clemson won the ACC title with a 42-10 win over Pittsburgh as a 27.5-point chalk. Dabo Swinney s club is in the CFP for the fourth straight year. Like Bama, Clemson has been a double-digit favorite in all 13 of its games, winning by at least 20 points 11 times. Meanwhile, Brian Kelly s bunch is an underdog for only the second time this season. The Irish beat Michigan 24-17 in its opener as a 2.5-point home underdog. They haven t been double-digit dogs since the 2016 regularseason finale resulted in a non-cover when USC beat them 45-27 as 17.5-point home chalk. Georgia finished No. 5 and Ohio State, the Big Ten champ, was sixth in the final CFP poll. The Bulldogs will meet Texas in the Sugar Bowl, while Ohio State will face Washington at the Rose Bowl. Other New Year s Six matchups include LSU (- 7.5) vs. UCF at the Sugar Bowl and Michigan (-6) vs. Florida at the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl.
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NFL BEST BETS 2-2 ATS LAST WEEK SEASON ATS RECORD NOW 34-20-2 63% Gruden Ecstatic After Win Over Steelers NFL Football Recap -- The Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers each won on the same day for the first time since Dec. 3, 2017, making Bay Area football fans happy for the first time in a while. The Raiders surprised the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-21 as doubledigit home 'dogs, while the 49ers fired out to a big lead against the Denver Broncos and they held on for a 20-14 victory as short 'dogs at home. The 49ers entered the day 1-5 ATS in their first six games, and 3-9 ATS overall on the season. One of those wins and covers for the Niners were against the Raiders back on Nov. 1. -- The Carolina Panthers are skidding hard after opening the season 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS. The Panthers took a 26-20 loss against 'The Bake Show' and the Cleveland Browns, losing and failing to cover for the fifth consecutive outing. The defense has allowed 20 or more points in seven straight outings, and 11 of the past 12. On the flip side, the Browns are suddenly resembling an NFL caliber team for the first time in years, winning three of their past four outings while also going 3-1 ATS during the span. They're also 8-5 ATS overall in their 13 outings while going 5-7-1 SU. -- The game with the highest total on the board (55) never even came close to going 'over'. The New Orleans Saints- Tampa Bay Bucs ended up well 'under' in a 28-14 win for the Saints. New Orleans held up their end of the bargain, but HC Dirk Koetter said after the game he was disappointed in his offense. The second-highest total on the board was the Pittsburgh-Oakland (51) game, and that game ended up going under, too. In fact, there were just 24 points on the board through three quarters and only a 21-point outburst in the fourth made that a closer total that maybe it should have been. -- The lowest totals on the board were a pair of 37-point lines in the New York Jets-Buffalo Bills contest, and that ended up with a total of 50 points. The Jacksonville Jaguars-Tennessee Titans on Thursday night saw a total of 39 points, as the Titans routed the Jags 30-9. It looked like the total was close, but it was actually over by the end of the third quarter before a scoreless fourth. -- The 'under' finished 2-1 this week after a low-scoring Monday nighter between the Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks (45.5). Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 22-21 (51.2%). Injury Report -- Bills RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring) pulled a hamstring in Sunday's battle against the Jets in the first quarter and he wasn't able to return. We've seen this movie before. -- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (thigh) suffered a thigh injury in the team's road loss in San Francisco and he was unable to return. -- Jets RB Isaiah Crowell (foot) left Sunday's game in Buffalo and he was unable to return to action. -- Redskins TE Jordan Reed (foot) suffered a foot injury against the Giants and he was helped to the locker room and unable to return. Looking Ahead -- The Chargers and Chiefs will square off on Thursday in a key AFC West Division battle. The Chiefs punched their ticket to the postseason with a win on Sunday, and they can take charge (see what I did there?) of the AFC West with a win over the visitors from Los Angeles, currently one-game back of K.C. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, while the Chiefs are 12-3 ATS in their past 15 inside the division. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, while the Chargers are 0-4 ATS in the past four in this series. WWW.GRIDIRONGOLDSHEET.COM 859-GIG-GOLD or 859-444-4653
Houston - 6 Over NY Jets by 14 Houston is sitting at 9-4 this year. The Texans had a lengthy winning streak going versus the Colts, Cowboys, Bills, Jags, Dolphins, Broncos, Redskins, Titans and Browns but came up short 24-21 against the Colts this past week. In the Indy game, Houston QB Deshaun Watson put up 267 yards and one TD, and also led the team in rushing with 35 yards. Ryan Griffin was the top Texans receiver with five grabs for 80 yards. Over on the Jets side, they re 4-9 this year. Following losses to the Colts, Vikings, Bears, Dolphins, Bills, Patriots and Titans in succession, New York finally got another win their last time out versus Buffalo. In the Bills game, Jets QB Sam Darnold put up 170 yards with one TD and one pick, and Elijah McGuire led the rush with 60 yards and a TD. Robby Anderson led the New York receivers on 76 yards and a score from four catches. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six versus the AFC and 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall. Houston is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS loss and 1-8 ATS in their last nine in December. Meanwhile, the Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five in December and 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall. New York is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Saturday games and 0-4 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Houston s loss to the Colts was certainly a downer, but they can get right back on track with a win here and it goes without saying that they re favored heavily in this game. As for the Jets, they looked pretty lost against the Bills until a couple of key drives in the final quarter, but bagging a comeback win will certainly give the team a lift during what s been a lost season. Still, I don t see too many reasons not to pick the Texans here. New York is good at winning meaningless games toward the end of the season, but this is a little much to ask of a bad team. Lay the points with the Texans. Projected Score: Houston 27, NY Jets 13 Tampa Bay + 9½ Over BALTIMORE by 1 The Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to play spoiler at this point after losing five of their last seven games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost their last five road games. Jameis Winston is completing 64.8 percent of his passes for 2,154 yards, 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick and have combined for 31 touchdown passes and 24 interceptions this season. Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson have combined for 1,957 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while Chris Godwin has 50 receptions. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ground game is averaging 98.7 yards per contest, and Peyton Barber leads the way with 677 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, Tampa Bay is allowing 29.5 points and 387.9 yards per game. Lavonte David leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with 93 tackles, Jason Pierre-Paul has 11.5 sacks and Andrew Adams has three interceptions. The Baltimore Ravens need to earn their eighth win of the season to stay in the thick of the AFC playoff race. The Baltimore Ravens have won four of their last six home games. Lamar Jackson is completing 58.4 percent of his passes for 687 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. Jackson enters this game with 101 career pass attempts under his belt. John Brown and Willie Snead IV have combined for 1,240 receiving yards and six touchdowns while Michael Crabtree has 51 receptions. The Baltimore Ravens ground game is averaging 134.5 yards per contest, and Jackson leads the way with 475 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Baltimore is allowing 18.5 points and 293.9 yards per game. C.J. Mosley leads the Ravens with 83 tackles, Za'Darius Smith has seven sacks and Brandon Carr has one interception. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Ravens are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 15 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in December. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The under is 4-1 in Bucs last 5 games overall. The over is 8-3 in Ravens last 11 games in December. Tampa Bay watched their two-game winning streak come to an end against the Saints, but they were in that game before falling apart in the fourth quarter. The Ravens are coming off a frustrating loss to the Chiefs and six of their last nine games overall have been decided by 10 or less points. The Bucs have split their last 10 games ATS when a dog of at least three points. The Ravens have split their last 10 games ATS when a fav of at least three points. This is too many points for me to get behind a Ravens team that has a one dimensional offense. We can't lay big chalk when a defense can load the box and force the QB to make plays with his arm, something Jackson hasn't shown he can do consistently. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are much better than their record suggests, as they just need to stop turning the ball over and show up in the fourth quarter. Either way, we're taking the boatload of points in this game, as we don't trust the Ravens yet. Projected Score: Tampa Bay 24, Baltimore 23
JACKSONVILLE - 7 Over Washington by 16 The Washington Redskins need to snap a four-game losing streak here to have any chance of staying in the NFC playoff race. The Washington Redskins have split their last six road games. Mark Sanchez is completing 54.3 percent of his passes for 138 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Sanchez and Josh Johnson have combined for one touchdown pass and four interceptions this season. Jordan Reed and Josh Doctson have combined for 1,027 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Vernon Davis has 23 receptions. The Washington Redskins ground game is averaging 114.1 yards per contest, and Adrian Peterson leads the way with 872 yards and seven touchdowns. Defensively, Washington is allowing 22.8 points and 370.1 yards per game. Mason Foster leads the Washington Redskins with 108 tackles, Ryan Kerrigan has nine sacks and D.J. Swearinger has four interceptions. The Jacksonville Jaguars could also use a victory here after losing eight of their last nine games. The Jacksonville Jaguars have split their last six home games. Cody Kessler is completing 66 percent of his passes for 546 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Kessler enters this game with 97 pass attempts under his belt this season. Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief have combined for 1,245 receiving yards and eight touchdowns while T.J. Yeldon has 54 receptions. The Jacksonville Jaguars ground game is averaging 107.3 yards per contest, and Yeldon leads the way with 408 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Jacksonville is allowing 21 points and 324.1 yards per game. Telvin Smith leads the Jacksonville Jaguars with 111 tackles, Yannick Ngakoue has seven sacks and Jalen Ramsey has three picks. The Washington Redskins are being outscored by a margin of 12.25 points during their four-game losing streak and showed last week against the New York Giants that there's zero hope at quarterback with a combination of Sanchez and Johnson. The Jacksonville Jaguars have had extra time to prepare for this game, but you have to question the motivation at this point given that was once a Super Bowl dark horse has won just once since October. The Washington Redskins have split their last eight games ATS when an underdog of at least seven points. The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered four of their last six games when a favorite of at least seven points. A full touchdown is a ton to lay in the NFL, especially when neither of these teams can score. With that said, we have more confidence in Jacksonville's defense than we do anything else in this game. Jacksonville could easily pitch a shutout with who the Redskins have at quarterback. Look what the Giants did to the Redskins last week on the road. We like the matchups in this game, so we're going to take the Jaguars in a comfortable victory. The Washington Redskins have zero hope offensively. Projected Score: Jacksonville 26, Washington 10 New Orleans vs CAROLINA Over 51 Total by 12 The New Orleans Saints will be looking to build off of a 28-14 win over Tampa Bay in their last outing to clinch their division with an 11-2 record. Drew Brees has thrown for 3,463 yards, 31 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while Alvin Kamara has rushed for 793 yards and 11 touchdowns and Mark Ingram has rushed for 519 yards and 5 touchdowns. Michael Thomas leads the Saints receiving corps with 102 receptions for 1,218 yards and 8 touchdowns while Kamara has 70 grabs for 591 yards and 8 touchdowns out of the backfield. Defensively, Cameron Jordan leads New Orleans with 12 sacks while Demario Davis leads New Orleans with 66 tackles this season. As a team, New Orleans is averaging 389 yards of total offense and 34.4 points per game, the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league this season. The Carolina Panthers will look for a win to get back to.500 after a 26-20 loss to Cleveland in their last outing. Cam Newton has thrown for 3,264 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on 68.8% passing while Christian McCaffrey leads the Panthers in rushing with 926 yards and 7 touchdowns this season. McCaffrey also leads Carolina s receiving corps with 86 catches for 701 yards and 6 touchdowns while DJ Moore has 47 catches for 676 yards and Devin Funchess has 42 grabs for 526 yards this season. Defensively, Mario Addison leads Carolina with 8 sacks while Luke Kuechly has a team-high 77 tackles this season. As a team, Carolina is averaging 378.1 yards of total offense and 24.9 ppg this season. New Orleans is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games and 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games overall while the under is 5-0 in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record. Carolina is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 division games while the over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two teams and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Carolina. The points hold some weight given that Carolina has been pretty good at home this season. However, the Panthers have been brutal over the last month ATS, are falling out of the playoff race and now put themselves in a must-win situation against one of the best offensive units in the league this season. The Saints have cooled off over the last couple of weeks since their strong outputs so far this season, but they re defense is allowing more points lately, and the Panthers defense has been absent for quite a while. The Saints will get their offense back on track vs a over rated Panther defense and the Panthers will be firing to keep pace. Therefore, we're going to play the over 51 in this game. Projected Score: New Orleans 35, Carolina 28
PRO FOOTBALL LEANER PICKS 12/13/18 8:20 ET 53-3.5 LA Chargers Kansas City Chiefs Los Angeles under is 8-1 in their last 9 division games. Kansas City is 48-21-1 in their last 70 home games. This will be a tight game with neither side wanting to make a mistake, so we are going to go under the total, especially since it may be a snowy cold day at Arrowhead. Under 53 12/15/18 8:20 ET 45.5-3 Cleveland Browns Denver Broncos The Browns are enjoying their best stretch of football in years and the confidence is growing. Can they bounce back? The Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their L6 as a fav of 3+ points. The Browns are playing well, so consider them in the dog role. 44-8 Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings Miami went under 4-1 in L5 games on turf. Vikings went under 4-1 in L5 games. Dolphins score more at home than on the road. Vikings couldn't put points on the board LW and fired their OC. Too many question marks, go under the total here. 46-3 Oakland Raiders Cincinnati Bengals The Bengals should be the fav considering they're at home. We're not backing Driskel at QB and a roster that's loaded with injuries. We're getting a free field goal with the better quarterback and a more confident Raider bunch. 47-3 Dallas Cowboys Indianapolis Colts The under is 21-6 in Cowboys L27 road games and Colts under is 4-0 L4 games. Luck has an edge over Prescott, the Cowboys have a distinct advantage in the run game and on defense. Cowboys run often and shorten the game. Go under. 38.5-2.5 Detroit Lions Buffalo Bills Detroit has shown a few flashes of the team they could potentially be this year, but by and large it s been a disappointment.. As for the Bills, it s been another lost season. Talent-wise Detroit is still in the driver s seat sp we will back the Lions. The Packers have quite frankly owned the Bears over the past few years. With one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time on your side + a free TD, we believe the Pack makes it close. We're fading the public and taking the Packers +6. 45-6 Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears 43.5-2.5 Tennessee Titans New York Giants Beating Jacksonville doesn t mean as much as it did earlier in the year, but Henry gets all the credit in the world for his spectacular game in the Titans last outing, and the whole team looked good. That said, the Titans on-field product has been wildly inconsistent this year overall. A toss-up and we lean to the home team. 44-8.5 Arizona Cardinals Atlanta Falcons The Cardinals have scored 18 or less in 6 of L8 games. Falcons have offensive issues of their own, they're averaging just 17.6 ppg during this 5-game losing streak. We don't like this matchup. Take the under. 4:05 ET 4:25 ET -5.5 44.5-2.5 49.5 Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers The Hawks and 49ers played two weeks ago, Seattle won by 27, so why is this line only 5.5? We hit the 49ers plus LW over the Broncos. May be same scenario. Mullens has brought a spark to the Niners. Lean to Seattle but beware a trap. Well, the Miami Miracle was certainly a downer for the Pats. Still, New England will bounce back. They always do, but not this week. This is a tough game to handicap, but we will give the Steelers a slight edge on the cover. 8:20 ET 53.5-9 Philadelphia Eagles Los Angeles Rams The Eagles are 1-5 ATS L6 vs. NFC. The Rams have the potential to blow the doors off an Eagles team that has had issues scoring this season. Eagles took one on the chin LW and will have a tough time scoring on the Rams. Lean Rams.
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