PowerS picks $10 Volume 4 Issue 8 September 22-26, 2016 2016 BP Sports, LLC CFB/NFL Best Bets: 13-7-1 (65%)! VIP Picks 25-11 (69%)! Week 4 CFB Best Bets Pg 3, Week 3 NFL Best Bets Pg 7 Week 3 News and Notes! For those of you that are new...in this section I ll recap what happened last week specifically, the misleading finals, the key injuries, the bad beats and the line moves. I ll include most of these recaps here, therefore you don t have to waste time reading about them in my game-by-game write-ups for the upcoming week. Without further adieu, here s a run down of what happened last week in the world of college football. Week 2 Trends Favorites-Dogs Straight Up 60-7 ATS 36-28-3 Home-Away Straight Up 46-21 ATS 33-31-3 Totals (O/U) Over-Under 30-34-1 Biggest Moneyline Upsets: Akron +650 won 65-38 at Marshall (+17.5) N Dakota St +450 won 23-21 at Iowa (+14.5) Troy +290 won 37-31 at So Miss (+9.5) Largest Favorites to Cover: Tulsa (-31.5) vs. North Carolina A&T, 58-21 Arkansas (-28.5) vs. Texas State, 42-3 Washington State (-27.5) vs. Idaho, 56-6 Lamar Jackson and Louisville, our Best Bet Longshot to win the National Title have leaped into the Top 3 after just 3 weeks! Misleading Finals The East Carolina/South Carolina game will go down as one of the most misleading finals of the year. First, all the action came in on ECU all week long as the line dropped from South Carolina -5.5 to -1.5. ECU was clearly the right side as they had dominating 34-13 first down and 519-312 yard edges. However, they were -4 TO s and it s where those TO s occurred that made the difference. The action started with South Carolina getting an 80-yard kick return to set up a 9-yard drive to take a 7-0 lead. After another South Carolina TD, ECU fumbled and SC got a 10-yard drive for a FG to take a commanding 17-0 lead. In the second quarter, ECU was intercepted in the South Carolina end zone thwarting a scoring drive. Then in the third quarter, the Pirates were intercepted at the South Carolina 1-yard line. The Pirates also had a 25-yard field goal blocked and fumbled at the South Carolina 5-yard line. That was incredibly their third turnover inside the Gamecocks five-yard line going in for a score. In the end, South Carolina got the win and cover in the 20-15 final but ECU was the better team for most of the day. VIP customers got a top play of the week on Syracuse (+14) over South Florida on Saturday. It looked great early as Syracuse led 17-0 after the first quarter and at that point were covering by 31-points. Then the roof caved in. First USF got a TD to trail by 10. Syracuse was then stopped on downs at their own 47, USF got another TD (17-14). The Orange were then intercepted at the USF 48. USF got two more scores in the 2Q to lead 28-17 and then Syracuse fumbled at the USF29 at the end of the half. The second half started off the same as Syracuse was stopped on downs at the USF37 on 4th and 1. The Orange did get a FG on their next drive to cut it to 28-20, but USF got a TD to make it 35-20, covering for the first time all game. Syracuse punted and USF got a 83-yard punt return for a TD to make it 42-20. The Orange were then int d at the USF37 and USF capped off the scoring with a FG. For the game, Syracuse had 30-20 first down and 549-454 yard edges but somehow couldn t cover as 2-TD underdogs. Ugh! While Akron certainly deserved to cover against Marshall in their 65-38 (+17.5) upset win, the final score was very misleading as Marshall had 31-24 first down 560-524 yard edges. However, the Thundering Herd had key 4 TO s. Believe it or not, Marshall actually led 21-7 after the first quarter but were incredibly out-scored 34-0 in the 2nd quarter. Akron got a 35-yard fumble return TD, a 30-yard TD off a blocked punt and also a 31-yard interception return TD in the 4Q. We had a 2H on Virginia (+4.5) on these pages last week and we looked great early as Virginia led 10-0. It was still UVA leading 10-3 in the 4Q before an interception gave UConn a short field and the Huskies scored the game-tying TD with 7:55 left. On the next possession, UVA was stopped on 4th and 1 at the Uconn24 and UConn would drive for a FG to make it 13-10 with 1:33 left. UVA again went right down the field, but on the final play of the game missed a chip shot 20-yard FG and lost 13-10. We were actually hoping they would miss it as we didn t want OT. Nonetheless, the Cavaliers still cashed our tickets as they never trailed ATS for the entire 60 minutes. Bad Beats Ole Miss money line bettors were feeling pretty good when they led 24-3 over Alabama in the first half. However, not only did the Tide rally back to take the lead, but at one point Alabama led 48-30 as they were remarkably covering a double-digit point spread. However, the Rebels rebounded with 13 points in just :08 and got the backdoor cover with 2:51 left in their 48-43 loss (+11). UCLA led 17-0 midway through the third quarter at BYU, easily covering a 3 1/2-point number. However, BYU ended up scoring the final 14 points of the game, including the back door cover touchdown with just :37 remaining in regulation to deal Bruin backers a tough loss. While we had nothing on the game, one of our customers tipped us off on how the Iowa St/TCU game ended. Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell made an interesting decision to kick a field goal with 1:29 left in regulation despite being down 41-17. That field goal gave early TCU backers (opened -22.5) a loss. Liberty (+14.5) trailed SMU 19-14 with less than a minute to go in the game. At this point, it was hard to imagine a scenario in which the Flames didn t cover. SMU did get a field goal with 47 seconds left. Two plays later, Liberty was picked off by and the SMU player instead of going down, returned it 34 yards for a touchdown. The PAT put SMU up 15 with 18 seconds left, which covered the spread by a halfpoint. That s one of the toughest beats we ll see all year. You couldn t have asked for better start if you took New Mexico +7.5, over Rutgers as the Lobos jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter. However, Rutgers scored the next 31 points and led by 10 entering the fourth quarter. Early in the fourth, New Mexico got a TD to cut the deficit to three. A pair of Rutgers field goals pushed the margin up to nine, as NM now needed a score on its final possession to cover. The Lobos reached the Scarlet Knights 10-yard line, but ended up having to settle for a FG attempt. However, New Mexico missed the 32-yard attempt with 43 seconds left. Rutgers ran out the clock and won by 9 (-7.5). Clemson was a 53.5-point favorite over FCS South Carolina St. The Tigers looked like they would get the cover, but unfortunately, after they led 45-0 at halftime, both sides agreed to play 12-minute quarters in the second half. In the betting world, a football game is only official if it goes at least 55 minutes. South Carolina State and Clemson would play just 54 minutes, costing those who took the Tigers a winning bet as they would win 59-0. Most books made this a no action. Major Injuries Arizona QB Anu Solomon (knee) who has missed the last two games and RB Nick Wilson (ankle) who got injured against Hawaii last week are questionable for this week s home game vs Washington. Colorado QB Sefo Liufau (ankle) was injured in last week s loss to Michigan and is questionable for this week s road game at Oregon. Florida QB Luke Del Rio (knee) was injured in last week s win over North Texas and is expected to miss this week s road game vs Tennessee. Austin Appleby is expected to start for the Gators. Kentucky QB Drew Barker (back) was injured in last week s win over New Mexico St and is questionable for this week s game against South Carolina. Oregon RB Royce Freeman (knee) was injured in last week s loss to Nebraska and is questionable for this week s home game against Colorado. UCF QB Justin Holman (hamstring) is not expected to start vs FIU this week. His backup McKenzie Milton will get the start. Milton was 21 of 36 for 260 yards and had a 2-1 TD-to-INT ratio last week in the 30-24 2OT loss to Maryland. Virginia QB Kurt Benkert (shoulder) was injured in last week s loss to Connecticut and is questionable for this week s game against Central Michigan. Wisconsin RB Corey Clement (ankle) is questionable for this week s game against Michigan St.
CFB/NFL Schedules Week 4 Sept 22nd-26th NFL/CFB Thursday, Sept 22nd Line BP All Times Eastern 301 HOUSTON -1 39 8:25 p.m. CBS 302 NEW ENGLAND 40.5-1 303 CLEMSON -9.5-10 7:30 p.m. ESPN 304 GEORGIA TECH 57.5 58 Friday, September 23rd Line BP 305 TCU -21-20 8:00 p.m. ESPN 306 SMU 64 68 307 WYOMING -3-3 7:30 p.m. CBS College 308 EASTERN MICHIGAN 63 59 309 USC 46.5 44 9:00 p.m. FOX Sports 1 310 UTAH -3-2 Saturday, September 24th Line BP 311 CENTRAL MICHIGAN -3.5-2 12:30 p.m. 312 VIRGINIA 49.5 50 313 BALL ST -3.5-3 6:00 p.m. 314 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 54.5 57 315 CENTRAL FLORIDA -6.5-6 316 FIU 53.5 54 317 ARMY -14-13 318 BUFFALO 51 55 319 EAST CAROLINA 56 63 12:30 p.m. 320 VIRGINIA TECH -11.5-11 321 SYRACUSE 57 55 College 322 CONNECTICUT -3.5-1 323 PENN ST 59.5 56 3:30 p.m. ABC 324 MICHIGAN -18.5-16 325 IOWA -13-14 12:00 p.m. ESPN2 326 RUTGERS 55.5 48 327 WAKE FOREST 46.5 50 3:30 p.m. Big Ten 328 INDIANA -7.5-10 329 SAN JOSE ST 55 54 12:00 p.m. 330 IOWA ST -6.5-6 331 MISSISSIPPI ST -22-21 3:30 p.m. 332 MASSACHUSETTS 45 47 333 COLORADO ST 56 54 12:00 p.m. 334 MINNESOTA -16-22 335 BYU 48.5 50 3:30 p.m. @Landover, MD ESPN2 336 WEST VIRGINIA -6.5-4 337 NORTH TEXAS 51.5 53 6:00 p.m. 338 RICE -7.5-9 339 APPALACHIAN ST -6-6 3:30 p.m. 340 AKRON 59.5 60 341 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 53.5 54 342 WESTERN MICHIGAN -7-8 343 CHARLOTTE 53.5 53 12:00 p.m. 344 TEMPLE -27.5-27 345 PITTSBURGH 67.5 69 3:30 p.m. ESPNU 346 NORTH CAROLINA -7-7 347 SOUTHERN MISS -10-11 8:00 p.m. 348 UTEP 58.5 57 349 OKLAHOMA ST 74 74 7:30 p.m. FOX 350 BAYLOR -8.5-6 351 LOUISVILLE -25.5-23 8:00 p.m. CBS College 352 MARSHALL 74.5 71 353 KENT ST 50 51 12:00 p.m. SEC Network 354 ALABAMA -44-45 355 DUKE 60 57 3:30 p.m. NBC 356 NOTRE DAME -21-17 357 NEW MEXICO ST 67.5 66 358 TROY -20-18 359 VANDERBILT 52.5 52 4:30 p.m. CBS College 360 WKU -7.5-4 361 WISCONSIN 43 40 12:00 p.m. Big Ten 362 MICHIGAN ST -5.5-6 363 ARKANSAS 49.5-1 9:00 p.m. @Arlington, TX ESPN 364 TEXAS A&M -6 47 365 NEVADA 58.5 60 12:00 p.m. ESPN News 366 PURDUE -5.5-8 367 UL-LAFAYETTE 47 44 8:00 p.m. ABC 368 TULANE -5-4 369 COLORADO 68.5 68 5:30 p.m. Pac-12 370 OREGON -7.5-14 371 WASHINGTON -9.5-14 10:30 p.m. 372 ARIZONA NL 60 373 GEORGIA 60.5 58 12:00 p.m. ESPN 374 OLE MISS -7-12 375 MIAMI, OH 55.5 58 3:30 p.m. ESPN News 376 CINCINNATI -18-10 377 LOUISIANA TECH 68 66 378 MIDDLE TENNESSEE -5.5-4 379 UTSA 52 57 3:30 p.m. 380 OLD DOMINION -3.5-9 381 SOUTH CAROLINA 56.5-1 7:30 p.m. SEC Network 382 KENTUCKY -2.5 53 383 FLORIDA 43.5 40 3:30 p.m. CBS 384 TENNESSEE -6.5-6 385 BOWLING GREEN 68.5 68 8:00 p.m. ESPN News 386 MEMPHIS -16.5-14 387 FLORIDA ST -6-14 12:00 p.m. ABC 388 SOUTH FLORIDA 61 62 389 NEBRASKA -7.5-6 7:30 p.m. Big Ten 390 NORTHWESTERN 48 48 391 HOUSTON -34.5-34 ESPNU 392 TEXAS ST 65 62 393 LSU -3.5-3 6:00 p.m. ESPN 394 AUBURN 45 43 395 BOISE ST -13-13 3:30 p.m. FOX Sports 1 396 OREGON ST 59.5 55 397 AIR FORCE -3-3 10:15 p.m. ESPNU 398 UTAH ST 53.5 51 399 IDAHO 62 65 9:00 p.m. 400 UNLV -14.5-11 401 CALIFORNIA 82.5 85 10:00 p.m. ESPN2 402 ARIZONA ST -4-5 403 STANFORD -3-3 8:00 p.m. ABC 404 UCLA 46.5 51 405 TULSA -14.5-11 4:30 p.m. ESPN 406 FRESNO ST 66 65 NFL Wk 2 Sunday, Sept 25th Line BP All Times Eastern 461 DENVER 41 41 462 CINCINNATI -3-1 463 OAKLAND 47 44 464 TENNESSEE -1.5-2 465 ARIZONA -4.5-7 466 BUFFALO 47 47 2 FBS vs FCS: 6-0 on star-rated picks this year! 9-0 the last 2 years!!! Lines Per 5Dimes 407 Wagner 408 Boston College -38.5 409 Gardner Webb 410 Ohio -30.5 411 Western Illinois 412 N Illinois -7.5 413 Delaware St 414 Missouri -50.5 415 Central Arkansas 416 Arkansas St -16 417 Nicholls St 418 South Alabama -15 467 BALTIMORE -1 46 468 JACKSONVILLE 47-6 469 CLEVELAND 41.5 40 470 MIAMI -9.5-8 471 WASHINGTON 46 44 472 NY GIANTS -4.5-4 473 DETROIT 48 47 474 GREEN BAY -7.5-7 475 MINNESOTA 43 42 476 CAROLINA -7-6 477 SAN FRANCISCO 40 37 4:05 p.m. FOX 478 SEATTLE -9.5-11 479 LOS ANGELES 42 43 4:05 p.m. FOX 480 TAMPA BAY -5-11 481 PITTSBURGH -3.5-8 4:25 p.m. CBS 482 PHILADELPHIA 46 48 483 NY JETS 43 41 4:25 p.m. CBS 484 KANSAS CITY -3-1 485 SAN DIEGO 52 57 4:25 p.m. CBS 486 INDIANAPOLIS -3-3 487 CHICAGO 44.5 43 8:30 p.m. NBC 488 DALLAS -7-3 419 Missouri St 420 Kansas St -42.5 CFB VIP Just $499 1-440-787-6614! bradpowerssports.com Monday, September 26th Line BP All Times Eastern 489 ATLANTA 54 54 8:30 p.m. ESPN 490 NEW ORLEANS -3-6
4H = BEST 3H = BETTER 2H = GOOD 1H = FAIR THE POWERS PACK 3H Florida St (-6) over SOUTH FLORIDA 3H Miami, Oh (+18) over CINCINNATI 2H Arkansas (+6) over Texas A&M 2H MINNESOTA (-16) over Colorado St 2H OLE MISS (-7) over Georgia Games in Rotation Order HOME TEAM IN CAPS Thursday, September 22nd Clemson 34 GEORGIA TECH 24. Short week to prep for option but Clemson is off FCS opponent. Last year, Clemson won 43-24 (-7.5). It was the most lopsided loss of the season for Georgia Tech as they were -307 yards. Clemson limited Georgia Tech to a season-low 71 rush yards (2.1). Clemson has gone just 4-6 SU/5-5 ATS in the last 10 meetings and they ve lost 5 straight meetings in Atlanta. While Clemson beat South Carolina St 59-0 (-53.5) last week, the game was shortened by 6 minutes and clearly was a bad beat for Clemson backers (see page 1). It was the Tigers first cover of the season. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech had their most impressive performance of the season in a 38-7 (-6) beat down of Vanderbilt to match last year s win total already. Clemson is just 2-7 ATS as an away favorite while Georgia Tech has been a solid dog at 7-2 ATS the last couple of years. While series history and technicals say back the home underdog here, we re passing. Friday, September 23rd Tcu 44 SMU 24. The Battle for the Iron Skillet has seen TCU win 14 of the last 16 meetings including 4 straight. Last year they won 56-37 (-37) but only led 42-37 in the 4Q. The last time the Horned Frogs traveled here, they came away with a 56-0 (-31) win, the largest in series history. Both of these teams were involved in bad beats last week (page 1) but both came away with a straight-up victory to move to 2-1 on the season. The Horned Frogs rebounded from the tough loss to Arkansas by beating Iowa St 41-20 (-24.5) but do have a huge game vs Oklahoma on deck. Meanwhile, SMU beat Liberty 29-14 (-14.5) but have lost QB Matt Davis for the season. His replacement Ben Hicks has gone just 36 of 76 (47%) with a 1-5 TD-to- INT ratio in the last two games. This line has dropped a couple of points already this week and there has been some value lost. Pass on side, slight lean to OVER. Wyoming 31 EASTERN MICHIGAN 28. The Cowboys are playing with revenge from a 48-29 (-13.5) loss at home to EMU last year in the two team s only meeting. Wyoming actually had a 26-19 first down edge in the game but were trailing by as many as 31 in the 2Q. Last week both teams picked up wins as both enter a somewhat surprising 2-1 on the season. EMU in their first away favorite role in a decade, beat Charlotte 37-19 (-2) while Wyoming handled FCS UC Davis 45-22 (-23.5). Wyoming is just 3-7 ATS as a road favorite and is in this role for the first time since 2013. However, EMU is just 14-31 ATS at home the last 10 years. We ll pass on the side and put a slight lean on the UNDER. UTAH 23 Usc 21. The Trojans have had the Utes number in Pac-12 meetings going 4-1 SU and last year won 42-24 (-3.5). The game got a lot of publicity in the gambling markets as an unranked USC team was favored over a unbeaten top 5 team but again, Vegas is a more true indicator of a team s strength, not the AP Poll. Last week USC was manhandled at the line of scrimmage for the second time this year as they lost to Stanford 27-10 (+7.5). They were out-rushed 295-117 despite putting as many as 8 guys in the box. They will start Sam Darnold at QB here with Max Browne struggling. On the other side, Utah in a clear flat spot off an emotional win over BYU still won and covered at San Jose St 34-17 (-13.5). The Utes had 10 sacks. We re passing on the side here but give a slight lean towards the UNDER. Saturday, September 24th Central Michigan 26 VIRGINIA 24. Last week we cashed a 2H on these pages on Virginia (+4.5) in their 13-10 loss at Connecticut. The game was a bit misleading as UVA led 10-0 and they had a significant yardage edge (see page 1). They also missed a chip-shot FG on the last play of the game that would ve tied it. UVA QB Kurt Benkert is banged up and is questionable here. On the other side, Central Michigan continues to impress as off the upset win over Oklahoma St, they cruised over UNLV last week 44-21 (-12). VIP customers were treated to a top totals play of the week on the OVER which almost cashed by halftime. While CMU has been money under head coach Bonamego (12-4 ATS in all games), UVA is now on a 11-2 ATS run as an underdog. We re passing for now unless this line climbs another point or two. Ball St 30 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 27. We re not going to lie as we didn t think much of this Ball St team entering the season but all they ve done is go 2-1 SU and have covered all 3 games after their 41-14 win over Eastern Kentucky last week. On the other side, FAU is 1-2 SU and have gone 0-3 ATS after last week s 63-7 (+23) loss to Kansas St. Ball St is arguably the best road ATS team in the country as they ve gone 47-20 ATS the last 11-plus years in all true road games. However, we expect a much better effort out of FAU here as they are taking a big step down in class from Miami, Fl and Kansas St the last two weeks. Pass. Central Florida 30 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 24. This is a big revenge game for UCF as they lost 15-14 (-12.5) to FIU in the season opener last year and that sent their season spiraling downward. In our summer issue, we labeled UCF as one of the most improved teams in the country and so far, they ve looked the part. Last week, they nearly upset Maryland at home in a 30-24 2OT loss (+10.5). They were playing without QB Justin Holman (see page 1) who is not expected to start here. His backup Milton last week had a solid game but also had 4 TO s. Meanwhile, our No. 1 season win total best bet of the off-season was to take FIU UNDER 6.5 wins. So far, so good as FIU is currently 0-3 SU/ATS and lost to Massachusetts last week 21-13 (-1). Both have played Maryland and UCF was far more impressive losing in 2OT (+82 yards) while FIU lost by 27 (-79 yards). We re passing. Army 34 BUFFALO 21. Quite bluntly, this is the best Army team in 20 years and by some margin. They upset a solid Temple team in the opener, then in their first significant favorite role over an FBS team in 10 years handled business over Rice. Last week, playing inspired for their fallen teammate Brandon Jackson (died in a car 3 accident), they crushed UTEP 66-14 (-3.5) piling up the most points since 1958. Prior to that, Army was on a 1-12 SU/0-13 ATS run as an away favorite the last 20 years. This is their largest away favorite role over an FBS team in 20 years and it s deserved considering Buffalo just gave up 352 rushing yards to Nevada last week. However, with all that being said, we don t like the situation here for Army playing a 3rd road game in 4 weeks and we feel the lines makers have finally caught up to them. Pass on the side, lean on the OVER. VIRGINIA TECH 37 East Carolina 26. ECU has upset VT in back-to-back seasons and has covered 4 straight over the Hokies. Last year, they won 35-28 (+9.5). However, both teams do have new head coaches. Both teams are off impressive performances although ECU s didn t show up on the scoreboard in their very misleading 20-15 (+1.5) loss to South Carolina last week (see page 1). QB Nelson continues to thrive in the new offense as he is completing 79% of his passes for 365 passing ypg. Meanwhile, VT hammered BC 49-0 last week (-6.5). It was their largest margin of victory over an ACC team since their first year in the conference back in 2004. While our power ratings are calling for Virginia Tech to win by 15, we re not going up against this ECU team as they are again in their preferred Little Brother role against an ACC team. We do lean with the OVER. CONNECTICUT 28 Syracuse 27. Former Big East rivals are playing for the first time since 2012. Last week, we won a 2H on these pages going against Connecticut who now stands at 0-14 ATS as a favorite dating back to early 2012. They did get the 13-10 straight up win but it was misleading (see page 1). Speaking of misleading, VIP customers got a top play of the week on Syracuse (+14) over South Florida last week. It looked great early as Syracuse led 17-0 after the first quarter but they collapsed after that (see page 1 for full details). This will be a clash of two contrasting styles as Syracuse wants to take as many snaps as possible (last week had a school record 105 offensive plays) while UConn is the polar opposite. We lean with the road underdog here but this number has dropped several points in the last couple of days and there has been clearly value lost. MICHIGAN 36 Penn St 20. The team s have split out their last 8 meetings but Michigan has won back-to-back games including last year 28-16 (-3.5) in Happy Valley. The Wolverines are off a misleading 17-point win over Colorado last week as they trailed 21-7 and also benefited from a couple of special teams TD s and Colorado QB Sefo Liufau getting injured in the second half. On the other side, Penn St should have covered against Temple last week but had 3 costly TO s in their 34-27 (-8) win. We actually favor the road team here as the Wolverines lines have been inflated this year. We are worried that Penn St is just 1-8 ATS on the road under Franklin with the only cover coming via the backdoor vs Pitt two weeks ago. Iowa 31 RUTGERS 17. First meeting between these new conference rivals. Iowa comes in off an upset loss to North Dakota St 23-21 (-14.5). We were actually a bit surprised as North Dakota St was coming off back-to-back OT wins and we questioned how much they had left in the tank. Obviously, the Hawkeyes weren t prepared physically as they were out-rushed 239-34. On the other side, Rutgers erased an early 21-0 deficit vs New Mexico and won 37-28 (-8) but they got a fortunate cover (see page 1). Surprisingly Iowa is on a 10-0 ATS run as an away favorite and Rutgers is 1-8 ATS as a big dog in Big Ten play (8 or more points). Pass on the side but we do like the UNDER in this one. INDIANA 30 Wake Forest 20. Indiana won last year s meeting 31-24 (-3.5) but it was a bit misleading as Wake Forest scored the last 2 TD s. This year the Hoosiers come in off a an early season bye at 2-0. In their last game, they led Ball St 30-0 before allowing the game s final 20 points. Their defense so far has looked much improved over recent past editions. Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons are off to their first 3-0 start since 2008 as they beat Delaware 38-21 (-24). However, their QB Kendall Hinton (knee) is expected to miss the next 2-4 weeks and they sacrifice his mobility at the position. Slight lean to the Hoosiers here. IOWA ST 30 San Jose St 24. Neither team has been impressive so far this season. Iowa St desperately needs a win for new head coach Matt Campbell as they are 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS. They did get the first cover of his era last week by kicking a late FG to come in under the number in a 41-20 loss at TCU. That had many TCU backers pretty upset (see page 1). On the other side, San Jose St is one of the worst road teams in the country losing 25 straight to Power 5 teams on the road by 27 ppg and are on a 1-10 ATS run as an away dog. Last week the Spartans caught Utah in a perceived flat spot off a last-second win over BYU, with a short week look ahead to USC. Still the Spartans lost 34-17 (+13.5) as they allowed 10 sacks. Iowa St gets the win but we don t see any line value in this one. Mississippi St 34 MASSACHUSETTS 13. Obviously a unique trip for the Bulldogs up to the Northeast as this one is being played in Gillette Stadium, home of the New England Patriots. Last week Mississippi St trailed LSU 23-3 before scoring the game s final 17 points in a 23-20 loss (+13). On the other side, UMass got their first win of the season as they beat FIU 21-13 (+1). They went to Virginia Tech transfer Andrew Ford at QB (JUCO last year) and he delivered by throwing for 278 yards and 3 TD s. UMass competed fairly well vs Florida and Boston College this year (lost by an average of 18 ppg) and we don t expect a big blowout here. Pass. 2H MINNESOTA 38 Colorado St 16. These two just met last year with the Golden Gophers puling out a 23-20 (-5) OT win in Fort Collins. Last week Colorado St started their third QB in as many weeks as they went to true freshman Collin Hill in the 47-21 (-21) won over Northern Colorado. Hill threw for 315 yards and 4 TD s but now he ll be making his first ever road start against a rested 2-0 Minnesota team that is off an early-season bye. The Gophers beat FCS Indiana St 58-28 (-24.5) two weeks ago as 235-lb JUCO RB McCrary had 176 yards. Keep in mind, Colorado St faced a similar team in Colorado in the opener and got their doors blown off 44-7. We think lightning can strike twice and we re laying it and playing it. brad powers ats stat of the week: Connecticut is 0-14 ATS in their last 14 favorite roles (home or away) and have lost 8 of those outright. This week they are -3 hosting Syracuse.
West Virginia 27 Byu 23. @FedEx Field in Landover, MD. Obviously West Virginia should have the crowd edge in this one as they are nearly 1,900 miles closer to this venue than BYU. We were all set to play against BYU in this match-up with their 4th game in a different venue already this season and 4th straight game against a Power 5 foe. Last week the Cougars had a somewhat misleading 17-14 loss (+3.5) at home vs UCLA as they got a TD with :37 left. They are 3-0 ATS this season with every game going down to the end. Meanwhile, West Virginia is off an early season bye but that s actually been a negative under Holgorsen as they are just 1-11 ATS after a bye in the regular season. This line has really climbed this week and it now seems inflated. Slight lean on BYU here but we don t like their situational disadvantage. RICE 31 North Texas 22. Rice has won and covered the last 2 meetings winning by 20 and 14 points respectively. Last week Rice was able to notch their first cover of the season (albeit barely) in a 38-10 loss (+34) to Baylor that saw the line move 5-points against them (Rice opened +29). On the other side, North Texas also got a cover last week vs a Top 25 foe, but it was even uglier as they lost 32-0 (+33.5) to Florida gaining just 53 yards of total offense (-13 rushing yards). The Owls have the worst defense in all of college football allowing 567 ypg but have faced 3 really good offenses in WKU, Army and Baylor. Still, we re not sure we want to lay too many points with them here. Pass. Appalachian St 33 AKRON 27. It s tough getting a read on this Akron team this year as after a blowout loss to Wisconsin where many Vegas insiders backed them, they crushed Marshall last week. While the Zips deserved to cover in their 65-38 (+17.5) shocking win, the game was a bit misleading as far as the blowout went (see page 1). On the other side, VIP customers were treated to an easy star-rated winner going against Appalachian St last week in their 45-10 loss (+4) at home to Miami, Fl. It was the biggest home game in school history but they trailed 21-0 right out of the gates. Making matters worse is that Appalachian St RB Cox was injured and is questionable for this game. There s too many unknowns to back anyone in this one yet. WESTERN MICHIGAN 31 Georgia Southern 23. Both teams are 3-0 but Western Michigan has played the much tougher schedule. Last year we cashed a 2H on these pages between these two as Georgia Southern crushed Western Michigan 43-17 (+4.5). It was a situational play with Georgia Southern off a blowout loss and Western Michigan off a rare home game against Michigan St. The Eagles nearly lost as a huge home favorite last week only winning 23-21 (-27) vs ULM. They actually had to block a potential game-winning FG with under 2 minutes left. The game was close despite the fact they had a commanding 345-67 rushing yard edge. Speaking of rushing yard edge, the Broncos incredibly had a 287-3 rushing yard edge against Illinois last week in their 34-10 (-3) beat down over the Illini. That should bode well for them here against the option as they also limited Big Ten foe Northwestern to 15 yards rushing in the opener. Broncos get their revenge. TEMPLE 40 Charlotte 13. Last year s game was played in a rain storm with Temple coming away with a 37-3 (-20.5) win despite getting outgained 354-322. The Owls are off to a disappointing 1-2 start, but did manage a cover vs Penn St last week in their 34-27 (+8) loss as they benefited from 3 key Nittany Lion turnovers. The good news was that they saw the return of RB Jahad Thomas who missed the first 2 games of the season. Meanwhile, Charlotte was hammered by perennial FBS cellar dweller Eastern Michigan last week losing 37-19 (+2). They have now lost 12 straight games to FBS opponents going just 2-8-2 ATS. Pass. NORTH CAROLINA 38 Pittsburgh 31. North Carolina has won and covered each of the 5 regular season meetings. Last year they beat Pitt 26-19 (-3) on a Thursday night. For two straight weeks the Panthers have owned the line of scrimmage and after out-rushing Penn St 341-74 two weeks ago, they out-rushed Oklahoma St 290-100. They did lose 45-38 (+3) mostly because their pass defense has been atrocious the last two weeks and allowed 540 yards to OSU QB Rudolph. That s not good news facing this high-flying North Carolina offense. On the other side, the Tar Heels should be ready off 2 straight blowout wins and last week beat James Madison 56-28 (-24.5). Expect plenty of points but we re passing on this one. Southern Miss 34 UTEP 23. Southern Miss beat UTEP last year 34-13 (-24). They out-gained the Miners by 225 yards. Last week Southern Miss out-gained Troy 421-309 but had 3 costly TO s in their 37-31 (-9.5) home upset loss. They still had the opportunity for a win but their pass fell incomplete at the Troy 9-yard line in the final seconds. On the other side, UTEP is coming off an embarrassing home loss to Army as they were destroyed 66-14 (+3.5). They allowed 426 rushing yards as Army had the ball for more than 41 minutes. Both teams need a bounce-back win here but we think Southern Miss is better suited to do so. BAYLOR 40 Oklahoma St 34. Baylor has won 2 straight over Oklahoma St and last year upset the unbeaten and No. 4 Cowboys 45-35 (pick) on the road. That loss sent Oklahoma St reeling as they were blown out in each of their final 2 games. Yes, the Bears are 3-0 SU this season but those wins have come over the likes of Northwestern St, SMU and Rice and Baylor is 0-3 ATS in those games. Quite frankly, we ve seen sloppy football (34 penalties in 3 games) and no killer instinct. On the other side, Oklahoma St fresh off their controversial loss to Central Michigan got a bounce back win over Pittsburgh last week 45-38 (-3) despite getting out-rushed 290-100. QB Rudolph did throw for 540 yards in a game that was delayed 2 hours when the teams were tied at 38-38. Despite last year s loss, Oklahoma St has gone 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and we lean with them here. Louisville 47 MARSHALL 24. You couldn t find two bigger differences from the Vegas lines than Louisville covering by 6 TD s in their 63-20 annihilation of Florida St last week vaulting them up to No. 3 in the polls. Lamar Jackson continued to work his magic as he had 146 rushing yards and 4 TD s to go a long with 216 passing yards. The defense held FSU QB s to just 8 of 24 for 113 yards! Meanwhile, on the other side, Marshall lost by 4 TD s as a 17.5-point favorite to Akron last week in what was a misleading game (see page 1). Due to last week s disparate results, this line has been inflated by at least a TD in our opinion. Keep in mind, Louisville is in one of the biggest sandwich spots any team will have all season as they are off Florida St and have Clemson on deck. We know this won t be a popular opinion, but we re leaning with the home underdog who is 9-0-1 ATS as a home dog of 6 or more points. Follow Brad on Twitter: @BradPowers7 ALABAMA 48 Kent St 3. Obviously, there won t be too much drama in this one featuring our No. 1 vs No. 112 power-rated teams. The Crimson Tide are coming off a 48-43 (-10.5) win over Ole Miss which saw them trail 24-3 at one point, only to take a 48-30 lead. Crimson Tide backers were then disappointed when Ole Miss scored twice with under 3 minutes left to get the back door. On the other side, Kent St broke a 7-game losing streak as they beat Monmouth 27-7 (-14.5). Kent St is Nick Saban s alma mater so we doubt he is purposely going to try an embarrass them. We re passing as Alabama is on a 3-11 ATS run laying 35 points or more. NOTRE DAME 37 Duke 20. We ve obviously been anti-notre Dame all season long and we ve already cashed 2 star-rated plays against them. First, they lost outright to Texas in the opener and last week fell to Michigan St outright in a deceiving 36-28 (-7) loss as the Irish piled up 3 late TD s after MSU led 36-7. Why did we fade ND so much? First, they were one of the least experienced teams in the country coming into the season and unlike Urban Meyer at Ohio St (also a very inexperienced team), the Irish are not well-coached especially on the defensive side of the ball. Second, there s always value going against ND in a favorite role since they are such a public team (now 20-32-3 ATS as a home favorite). On the other side, despite their 1-2 start, Duke is a well-coached team that have a respectable 12-6 ATS record as a dog. While they ve lost to Wake Forest and Northwestern the last 2 weeks, they did have the first down edge in each game (value) and QB Daniel Jones has 611 passing yards in those games. Are you going to trust this Notre Dame defense laying 3 scores? We certainly aren t. Lean on the Blue Devils. TROY 42 New Mexico St 24. Troy did beat New Mexico St 52-7 (-4.5) last year and it was 45-7 at halftime. The Trojans are playing very well so far this season as they played Clemson legitimately tough in a 6-point loss and then last week went on the road and upset Southern Miss 37-31 (+9.5). They were out-gained by more than 100 yards and did benefit from 3 key Southern Miss TO s. On the other side, New Mexico St was tied at halftime vs Kentucky last week 35-35 before falling 62-42 (+22.5). While this is back-to-back long road trips for the Aggies, we think this line is inflated due to Troy s performances the last 2 weeks and we have been impressed with the New Mexico St offense so far this season. Slight lean on the dog. WESTERN KENTUCKY 28 Vanderbilt 24. Last year, WKU was actually favored by 2.5-points over Vanderbilt on the road and won 14-12 despite getting outgained 385-246. Vanderbilt is playing with revenge and they re going to need it especially for head coach Derek Mason s sake as the Commodores come in a disappointing 1-2 SU/ATS. Last week they were crushed by Georgia Tech 38-7 as they were out-gained 289-85 on the ground. On the other side, WKU beat Miami, Oh 31-24 but failed to cover as 17.5-point favorites and were even out-gained 424-404. This is arguably one of the biggest home games in WKU history but this line seems a bit high especially considering the SEC is 7-1 SU/7-0-1 ATS taking points from CUSA teams and Vandy just beat Middle Tennessee by 23 two weeks ago. MICHIGAN ST 23 Wisconsin 17. These two conference rivals have not met since 2012. Last week, we used a 3H on these pages on the Spartans and they came through beautifully for us in their 36-28 (+7.5) win over Notre Dame. The Spartans led 36-7 before a late ND rally and had a dominating 260-57 rush yard edge. On the other side, the Badgers had a pathetic showing against Georgia St only winning 23-17 as 5 TD s home favorites. The Badgers had to score the game s final 10 points just to avoid the embarrassing outright loss. Wisconsin RB Corey Clement (ankle) sat out the game and is questionable here. There is also a QB controversy brewing as Alex Hornibrook is expected to get the start here after Bart Houston has struggled this season. We re not sure we see a lot of value here. Pass. 2H Arkansas 24 Texas A&M 23. After back-to-back losses to Texas A&M in OT the last two years, games that Arkansas for the most part controlled, you better believe the Hogs want this game and want it bad. Last week on these pages, we suffered an embarrassing loss as we went against Arkansas in a flat spot and had Texas St +31. We were dead wrong as we trailed 35-0 and lost 42-3 in a game that was shortened 5 minutes. On the other side, the Aggies have been super impressive this year at 3-0 SU/ATS and last week beat Auburn 29-16 (+1.5) on the road. This line seems inflated and we re backing the underdog Hogs who are in their preferred role under Bielema as they are 10-1-1 ATS as underdogs with 6 outright upsets including a winner vs TCU two weeks ago. Woo Pig Sooie!! PURDUE 34 Nevada 26. Purdue comes in off a bye while this is Nevada s 2nd road trip to Indiana in 3 weeks after losing to Notre Dame 39-10 (+28) a couple weeks ago. Last week Nevada got a bounce back win over Buffalo as they won 38-14 (-12) gaining 352 yards on the ground. Purdue head coach Darrell Hazell can ill afford a loss here. Prior to the bye, they fell to Cincinnati 38-20 (+3) in a very misleading game as they were -5 TO s. Keep in mind, last year after a bye Purdue upset Nebraska 55-45 (+7.5) and we expect a big effort here. However, the technicals are against them as they are on a 2-9 ATS run at home while Nevada is on a 10-3 ATS run on the road. TULANE 24 UL-Lafayette 20. These two in-state rivals last met in the bowl game a couple years back, a 24-21 win (+1.5) for ULL. Willie Fritz can coach folks. Yes, Tulane is only 1-2 but they have near upsets over Wake Forest and Navy. Last week, they actually led Navy 14-13 before Navy got a late TD and 2-point conversion for the 21-14 win and cover. On the other side, after the disastrous opener vs Boise St (at least for us), the Ragin Cajuns have won back-to-back games. Last week, they beat South Alabama 28-23 (-1.5) as they had a 512-338 yard edge. However, this is their first road game of the season while it is Tulane s 3rd straight home game. Slight lean on the UNDER here and we re passing on the side. OREGON 41 Colorado 27. Oregon has gone 5-0 SU/ATS over Colorado winning by an average of 38 ppg. Last week, Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich decided to go for 2 after all 5 TD s and went 1 and 5 on them! Oregon would lose to Nebraska by 3 infuriating Ducks backers which included us on the VIP update. On the other side, we also had Colorado +18.5 over Michigan on the VIP update and after they led 21-7 early, we felt pretty comfortable. However, Michigan would outscore them 38-7 to close (thanks to ST s) and we barely covered. There s a boat load of injury concerns here for both teams. Most importantly Colorado QB Sefo Liufau is questionable (they lost a starting LB and K for the season last week) while Oregon RB Royce Freeman is also questionable (Ducks lost their starting LT and a WR for the season last week. Until we get an updated injury report later in the week, pass. 4
WASHINGTON 37 Arizona 23. The home team has dominated this series with 8 straight wins (7-1 ATS), but Washington did get the cover here the last time here and last year destroyed Arizona 49-3 (-4). Last week, we cashed our first college totals play of the season on these pages (We love totals!) and Arizona/Hawaii would go OVER the total by double-digits. Arizona won 47-28 (-23.5) as QB Solomon sat out again. Dawkins played well with 353 total yards. On the other side, Washington is off to a dominating start (avg win by 39 ppg), but the Huskies haven t played any stiff competition yet and this will be their first road trip. QB Browning is No. 1 in the country in passing efficiency with a 12-1 TD-to-INT ratio. No line as of press time, but we re leaning with the road team here. 2H OLE MISS 35 Georgia 23. Georgia has won 10 straight in the series, but these two haven t met since 2012. Last week UGA got a 4&10 20-yard TD pass with under 2 minutes left to beat Missouri 28-27 (-7). They benefited from +4 TO s and are taking a step up in competition here. We re simply amazed that Georgia is ranked No. 12 in the AP Poll and while you should give them credit for being 3-0 under first-year head coach Kirby Smart, they could very easily be 0-3 including a near embarrassing loss to Nicholls St. Meanwhile, Ole Miss could very well be 3-0 if not for blowing 22-point and 21-point leads against Top 10 teams Florida St and Alabama. They ve played by far the tougher schedule, need a feel-good win and are the better team here laying the reasonable number. 3H Miami, OH (plus the points) CINCINNATI 34 Miami, OH 24. Miami, OH has lost 10 straight in this rivalry but has taken home the cash in each of the last 3 meetings. Last year they only lost 37-33 (+20) and the last time here only lost 31-24 (+28.5). This year, despite their 0-3 SU/2-1 ATS record, the Red Hawks have outgained each of their first 3 opponents (give us line value). Yes, last week s Houston/ Cincinnati score was misleading as Houston scored the game s final 28 points in the 4Q including two Pick 6 s, however, Houston did have 28-12 FD and 506-377 yard edge and blew a lot of scoring opportunities early. Cincy could be peeking ahead to the USF game next week (a team that was up on them 51-3 at halftime last year) and we think Miami, Oh is perfectly capable of sliding in the back door just like last week when they trailed WKU 24-3 but only lost by 7. MIDDLE TENNESSEE 35 Louisiana Tech 31. Last year La Tech beat Middle Tennessee 45-16 (-7.5) but benefited from +3 TO s. Last week VIP customers were treated to a star-rated winner on Middle Tennessee in their 41-21 win (-6.5) over Bowling Green. Despite the lopsided score, we actually weren t that impressed as they Middle only had a 436-433 yard edge and benefited from 4 BG TO s. On the other side, Louisiana Tech lost 59-45 (+11.5) at Texas Tech. Not sure we see much value on this one, but we would have a slight lean on the underdog. OLD DOMINION 31 Utsa 24. These two met last year with Old Dominion winning 36-31 (+8.5) as the Monarchs had a comfortable 548-424 yard edge. Last week, UTSA caught Arizona St in a flat spot, traveling on a short week and the Roadrunners took advantage as they led 28-12 3Q before eventually losing 32-28 (+21). They were out-gained by 147 yards. On the other side, ODU is coming off back-to-back road losses but the Appalachian St loss was misleading (see last week s issue) and they weren t embarrassed last week at an angry NC State team. We ll back the short home favorite here who will look to get back on track. South Carolina 27 KENTUCKY 26. The Gamecocks have actually lost 2 straight to Kentucky getting outright upset in both games. After a disastrous 0-2 start, the Wildcats actually were tied at 35-35 against New Mexico St last week before pulling away in the second half. Meanwhile, SC was extremely fortunate to get a 20-15 (-1.5) win and cover over East Carolina as they were out-fd d 34-13 (see page 1 for full recap). Kentucky QB Drew Barker has been downgraded to doubtful and it looks like Stephen Johnson will get the start. We d prefer to play against both teams but since we have to choose, we ll reluctantly take the road underdog who has the better defense. We also like the UNDER. TENNESSEE 23 Florida 17. It s been 12 years and 11 straight losses since the Volunteers last beat the Gators and last year s loss was arguably the worst of the bunch as they led 27-14 in the 4Q before allowing 2 late TD s. Maybe the Volunteers have been looking towards this game all off-season because for the first 3 weeks of the season, we have not been impressed whatsoever. Last week, they only led Ohio 21-19 before scoring a late TD (Vols were -27.5). Meanwhile, the Gators are 3-0 outscoring their opponents by a total of 101-14. Unfortunately in their 32-0 win over North Texas last week, QB Del Rio took a cheap shot and will miss this game. Former Purdue QB Austin Appleby will get the start. The Gators currently have the No. 1 scoring and total defense in the country right now. We would have picked Florida to win outright had QB Luke Del Rio not got hurt last week. Now we re passing. MEMPHIS 41 Bowling Green 27. These two met last season with Memphis coming away with a 44-41 (-3) on the road. While VIP customers cashed a star-rated play going against the Falcons last week, the game wasn t as dominating as the 41-21 final indicated as the Falcons were only out-gained by 2 yards but had 4 costly TO s. They are 0-3 ATS this season but now we ve seen a lot of negativity thrown in BG s direction and this line looks inflated. It s especially true considering Memphis in their 43-7 (-20) win over Kansas last week benefited from a +6 TO margin. After selling Bowling Green for the first 3 weeks of the season, we re buying now. 3H Florida St 38 SOUTH FLORIDA 24. USF has covered each of the 3 meetings between the two including last year in a 34-14 loss (+28.5). However, in that year s time, we ve seen a 3-TD line swing despite the fact, both teams are 10-4 SU since that Week 2 game. However, the Bulls are on a notable 10-1 ATS run in the regular season dating back to last year. Last week, we went against them with Syracuse (+14) as our top VIP play of the week and we looked great early as USF was down 17-0. However, they outscored the Orange 45-3 the rest of the way despite getting out-fd d 30-20 (see page 1 for misleading final). On the other side, there was nothing misleading about Florida St s 63-20 (+2.5) loss to Louisville. The Seminoles were smoked from the beginning and there was no Jimbo Fisher second half magic. This game reminds us of the Miami, Fl/Appalachian St game last week when the line was very short and many in Vegas were afraid of laying it thinking the lines makers knew something. Well, we know something; this is a proud FSU program off one of the worst losses in school history and we expect a major bounce back effort. 5 Nebraska 27 NORTHWESTERN 21. The visitor has gone 4-1 SU/ATS in the last 5 meetings and Nebraska is playing with revenge from a 30-28 (-6.5) loss to Northwestern at home last year. Last week the Huskers picked up one of their biggest wins in years as the beat Oregon 35-32 (-3) rallying from a 20-7 first half deficit. They did benefit from Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich deciding to go for 2 after every Oregon TD (Ducks were 1 for 5). QB Tommy Armstrong has thrown just 1 int this year. On the other side, after suffering back-to-back upset losses at home, Northwestern picked up their first victory of the season, a 24-13 win (-4) over Duke. With the exception of a 38-17 Nebraska win here a couple years ago, these two teams have featured several close games (other 4 games decided by a total of 9 points) and we look for a one possession game here. Pass. Houston 48 TEXAS ST 14. Last we had a 3H on these pages on Texas St (+31) as we liked their situational edge catching Arkansas in a flat spot while the Bobcats were coming off a bye after an upset win over Ohio in the opener (how good has Ohio looked since?!?). However, Arkansas steam-rolled Texas St 42-3 leading 35-0 at halftime and limited Texas St to just 105 total yards. That was one of our worst picks of the season. On the other side, Houston fell behind Cincinnati 16-12 in the 4Q only to score the game s final 28 points including 2 Pick 6 s. Keep in mind, Houston did have a 28-12 FD edge and blew multiple scoring opportunities early in the game. There is a possibility that QB Ward (shoulder) rests here as this is an AAC sandwich game and they have a big revenger vs UConn on deck in 5 days (Huskies were only team to beat UH last year). We re passing but note that Houston is on a 19-2-1 ATS in all games away from home the last 4 years. Lsu 23 AUBURN 20. LSU has won 4 of the last 5 meetings but the home team has gone 5-1 ATS. Last year, LSU crushed the Tigers 45-21 (-6.5) thanks to several highlight reel runs for RB Leonard Fournette who had 228 rush yards. Last week LSU led Miss St 23-3 before the Bulldogs scored the game s final 17 points including 2 TD s in the final 5 minutes. QB Etling did go19 of 30 for 215 yards giving the Tigers some semblance of a passing game. On the other side, Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn s seat is as warm as ever after losing to Texas A&M 29-16 (-1.5). Incredibly they are just 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS at home in their last 6 and have lost 6 straight SEC home games (Yikes!). We expect this one to go to the wire. Pass. Boise St 34 OREGON ST 21. Oregon St won the last meeting in 2013 38-23 (-3) in the Hawaii Bowl. Last week Oregon St ended a 10-game losing streak dating back to last season as they beat FCS Idaho St 37-7 (-34.5). The Beavers were coming off an early season bye but only had a 413-368 yard edge benefiting from +5 TO s. Speaking of byes, the Broncos come in off one here after they beat Washington St 31-28 (-11) two weeks ago. They were fortunate to get the win as they were outgained by 100 yards. This is another chance for Boise to impress vs a Power 5 team but they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games vs the Pac-12. Pass. Air Force 27 UTAH ST 24. Utah St has won 2 of the last 3 meetings but last year Air Force pulled the upset winning 35-28 (+3) while running for 309 yards. The Falcons have had a light schedule so far as they have only played Abilene Christian, Georgia St and had a bye last week. Meanwhile, Utah St has played 3 games including one against USC. The Aggies do come in off a 34-20 (-9.5) win over Arkansas St last Friday. The Aggies were out-gained 357-334 but benefited from 3 Arkansas St TO s. While we like this Air Force team a lot, Utah St is on a 25-3 SU run at home and it s tough enlisting the Aggies as a home puppy. Pass. UNLV 38 Idaho 27. Last week VIP customers got a star-rated top totals play of the week winner on OVER in the UNLV/Central Michigan game that nearly won by halftime. However, UNLV did fall short especially in the second half as they lost 44-21 (+12). On the other side, Idaho is 1-2 SU/ATS after last week s 56-6 (+28.5) loss to Washington St (Vandals outscored 28-0 in 4Q).While it is a bit scary backing Idaho here who is playing their third straight game after getting whipped by the Washington schools the last 2 weeks, this line looks inflated. Slight lean on the road team despite UNLV being 3-0 ATS as a home favorite under Sanchez. ARIZONA ST 45 California 40. Cal has won 9 of the last 11 meetings and these two were in a shootout (to no surprise) last year with California coming away with a 48-46 (-3.5) win as the two teams combined for 1,266 yards. Last week, Cal got their 2nd straight win over Texas as they won 50-43 (+8) to surprisingly move to 2-1 SU/2-0-1 ATS on the season. We weren t big fans of Cal in the preseason and neither was Vegas as their opening season win total was only 4. On the other side, Arizona St may have been peeking ahead to this game as they trailed UTSA 28-12 in the 3Q before rallying for a 32-28 win (-21) win. Keep in mind, Arizona St already beat a similar style team in Texas Tech 68-55 (+2) two weeks ago at home and we lean with the home team here. Stanford 27 UCLA 24. The Cardinal have won 8 straight in the series going 7-1 ATS. They ve dominated UCLA physically but the Bruins have made it an emphasis to improve in that area greatly this year. They re going to need it considering Stanford won 56-35 (-6.5) last year and the Bruins scored the final 15 points! Both teams are off physical games as Stanford beat USC 27-10 (-7) thanks to a 302-117 rushing yard edge. Meanwhile, UCLA led BYU 17-0 before the Cougars scored the game s final 14 points including a TD with :37 left, that made their backers quite unhappy. They did notably hold BYU to just 23 rushing yards. Stanford is -6 ypg on the season and while they have two solid wins over Kansas St and USC, there are some chinks in their armor. We re passing on this one. Tulsa 38 FRESNO ST 27. Tulsa does sport one of the most improved defenses in the country as they are only allowing 357 ypg, after allowing 537 ypg a year ago. Last week, they rebounded off the loss to Ohio St and beat FCS North Carolina A&T 58-21. Again similar to the UNLV/Idaho game above, this line looks inflated but we also wanted to back Fresno St last week against Toledo and they were run out of the building in a 52-17 (+22) loss. The Bulldogs were 0 for 13 on third down, were -365 yards and this once proud program is now just 10-20 in their last 30 games. Keep in mind, we backed Tulsa as a top play of the week on these pages in the opener when they drilled fellow Mountain west team San Jose St 45-10 (-5). Watch Brad Powers give his FREE picks each week at pregame.com