Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Valley University Business and Economic Forum May 18, 2017

National Economic Conditions

Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Wall Street Journal

Becomes The Trump Slump Source: Wall Street Journal

Expectations of Future Inflation on the Rise

Economic Surprise Index Dropping

Irrational Exuberance?

Current Level of Consumer Confidence Indicates Economic Prosperity 130 120 110 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Apr CCI = 120.3 100 90 80 70 60 50 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Source: The Conference Board

Business Optimism Booms Post Election Source: Trading Economics, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Divergence of Soft vs Hard Data

Why?

Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Index Slower Recovery than Past Recessions 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Periods from Value Scaled to 100 2007 Recession 2001 Recession 1990 Recession 1981 Recession 1980 Recession 1973 Recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Slower Recovery than Past Recessions

Trumponomics Repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act Cut corporate and income taxes Increase spending on infrastructure and military Reduce government regulations Renegotiate trade deals

April Job Indicators Indicator Expectation Actual Total Nonfarm Payrolls 185,000 211,000 Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.4% Private Payrolls 180,000 194,000 Monthly Average Hourly Wage Growth Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth 0.3% 0.3% 2.7% 2.5% Labor Force Participation 63.0% 62.9% Sources: Wall street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics

211,000 Jobs Added in April Payroll Change in thousands 500 300 100-100 -300-500 -700 8.7 Million Jobs Lost 15.7 Million Jobs Recovered -900 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

350 211,000 Jobs Added in April 300 297 291 Payroll Change 000 s 250 200 150 100 50 126 237 225 153 43 176 249 124 164 155 216 232 79 211 0 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Apr 2016 to Apr 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information -1.7% Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 0.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 3.1% 2.6% 2.1% 3.1% 2.3% 2.0% Total: 1.56% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Apr 2016 to Apr 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -46 21 40 56 173 213 173 179 304 512 612-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rate Continues to Improve 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 5.0% = Full Employment 3.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18.0 16.0 Unemployed and Discouraged Workers Down from Last Month 14.0 12.0 7.1% 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.2% 4.0 2.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Long-Term Unemployment Decreasing Million Persons 8.0 Unemployed for more than 27 weeks 6.0 4.0 2.0 March 2017: 1.6 m 0.0 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and American Bankers Association

Unemployment Duration Remains High

% 68 66 Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years Mar 2000 67.3% 64 62 Apr 1978 63.0% 60 58 Apr 2017 62.9% 56 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

% 68 Labor Force Participation Seeing Little Change 67 66 65 64 Apr: 62.9% 63 62 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Men Women 40% 30% 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Participation Among Women Aged 25-34 Has Surged

Level in Thousands 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 Job Openings Outnumber Hires 2001 2001 2002 2003 2003 2004 2005 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017 Hires Openings Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Wage Growth Starting to Slow YoY Percent Change 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 2007 2017 Average 2.4% Apr. 2017 2.5% 1.0 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

5.0 Producer Price Index on the Rise 4.0 3.0 2.0 Percent 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 Year-to-Year Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

4.5% U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Inflation Starting to Slow Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change 5 4 3 Percent 2 1 0-1 -2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Consumer Spending Drives Economic Growth 6.00% Components of Real Gross Domestic Product 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Government Inventories Net Exports Fixed Investment Personal Consumption Real GDP Growth Q1 2017 GDP 0.7%

140 130 120 110 100 90 1973 = 100 The U.S. Dollar is Strong Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad 80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $1.50 1.39 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 PARITY 1.06 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $8.50 2008 China stops the yuan s rise 2001 China joins WTO 2005 China allows the yuan to rise 2010 China allows the yuan to rise Aug 2015 China devalues the yuan by largest amount in 20 years 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Source: Wall Street Journal

$1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 British Pound Dropped to New Low Following BrexitVote Brexit Vote $1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. Total Rig Count Recovering from Low as Oil Prices Rise $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 2013 2014 Oil Prices 2015 Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs 2016 Active Oil Rigs 2017 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400

Fed Funds Rate, Inflation and Unemployment 7.0 6.0 5.0 Effective Fed Rate 12-month change in PCE price index Unemployment Rate (right axis) 12.0 10.0 4.0 8.0 3.0 2.0 6.0 1.0 4.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 Fed Funds Rate Approaching 1 Percent 2.0 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: U.S. Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: PCE is total personal consumption expenditures

March 2017 Fed Rate Increase Projections 4% 3% 3.0% 3.0% 2% 1.4% 2.1% 1% 0% 2017 2018 2019 Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Utah Economic Conditions

Utah Accolades CNBC: Utah Named 2016 Top State for Business WalletHub: Utah Named 2016 State with Best Economy CNBC: Salt Lake City (18), Ogden (7), and Provo (2) Named Among Top 20 Metro Areas to Start a Business in U.S. Forbes: Utah Named #1 Best State for Business (top stop 5 out of past 6 years) Standard & Poor s, Moody s Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings: Utah One of only 10 States with AAA Bond Rating

CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% Utah Population Fastest Growing in U.S. MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% HI 0.2% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% 1.5% or more OH 0.1% KY 0.3% 0.7% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Population Loss WV -0.5% VT -0.2% PA -0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200,000 900,000 600,000 300,000 0 3,051,217 70000 25,412 60000 34,997 90000 80000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0-10000 -20000 Components of Population Change 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population 2015 2017f 2018f Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate, f = forecast

Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2015 to 2016 Box Elder 2.2% Tooele 3.1% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.2% Rich 1.0% Weber 1.7% Morgan 3.1% Summit Salt Lake 2.1% 1.5% Utah 3.0% Wasatch 4.7% Duchesne -2.1% Daggett -1.4% Uintah -3.7% State Average = 2.0% Juab 4.2% Carbon -0.2% Increase of 3.0% or Greater Increase of 2.0% to 2.9% Millard 0.4% Sanpete 2.1% Sevier 1.6% Emery -1.3% Grand 0.9% Increase of 1.0% to 1.9% Beaver 1.9% Piute -2.5% Wayne 0.0% Increase of 0.0% to 0.9% Population Loss Iron 3.4% Washington 3.1% Kane 3.0% Garfield -0.1% San Juan 7.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

CA 2.1% OR 2.2% WA 2.9% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent Change in Employment for States: March 2016 to March 2017 U.S. Rate = 1.5% NV 3.0% AK -2.1% ID 2.7% UT 3.2% AZ 2.0% Utah Employment Growth Highest in the Nation MT 2.1% WY -2.1% HI 0.7% CO 1.9% NM 0.9% ND -0.3% SD 1.6% NE 0.9% KS 0.3% TX 2.1% OK -0.1% MN 1.5% IA 0.5% MO 1.4% AR 1.1% WI 0.9% LA -0.1% IL 0.4% MS 0.0% MI 1.9% IN 1.5% TN 2.2% AL 1.4% OH 0.7% KY 1.5% GA 3.0% WV -0.8% VT 0.9% PA 1.0% NC 1.6% SC 1.8% VA 1.2% FL 3.0% NH 1.4% NY 1.2% 2.0% or more 1.6% to 1.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss ME 0.9% DC 0.8% CT 0.1% DE 0.8% MD 1.6% MA 1.4% RI 0.8% NJ 1.2%

Utah Total Employment at New Highs Thousands of Employees 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 Loss of 92,000 jobs from 2007-2009 Gain of 287,400 jobs from low in 2009 800 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: March 2016 to March 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -10.2% Total: 3.2% -1.7% 4.7% 3.8% 3.3% 2.0% 4.2% 3.6% 4.7% 3.1% 2.2% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: March 2016 to March 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining -900 Construction 4,100 Manufacturing 4,800 Trade, Trans., Utilities 8,700 Information Financial Activity -600 1,600 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 8,200 Ed. & Health Serv. 6,800 Leisure & Hospitality 6,500 Other Services Government 1,200 5,300 Total: 45,700-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Utah Employment Change Rates By County Mar 2016 to Mar 2017 State Rate = 3.1% Box Elder 3.4% Tooele 5.8% Juab 0.5% Cache 2.0% Rich 2.5% Weber 1.7% Davis 2.9% Morgan 4.0% Salt Lake 2.6% Utah 4.0% Summit 2.4% Wasatch 5.4% Duchesne -0.5% Carbon -3.4% Daggett -13.8% Uintah -5.9% 5.0% or more 3.3% to 4.9% Millard 2.4% Sanpete 2.9% Sevier 2.0% Emery -3.1% Grand 0.7% 1.0% to 3.2% Beaver -3.1% Piute 8.1% Wayne -6.4% 0.0% to 0.9% Iron 6.0% Garfield -1.0% San Juan 1.7% Loss Washington 5.7% Kane 0.6% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Not seasonally adjusted

OR 3.8% CA 4.9% WA 4.7% NV 4.8% AK 6.4% ID 3.5% UT 3.1% AZ 5.0% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics UT Unemployment Rates 8th th Lowest in the Nation MT 3.8% HI 2.7% WY 4.5% CO 2.6% NM 6.7% March 2017 U.S. Rate = 4.5% ND 2.8% SD 2.8% NE 3.1% KS 3.8% TX 5.0% OK 4.3% MN 3.8% IA 3.1% MO 3.9% AR 3.6% LA 5.7% WI 3.4% IL 4.9% MS 5.0% MI 5.1% IN 3.9% TN 5.1% AL 5.8% 3.9% or less OH 5.1% KY 5.0% GA 5.1% WV 4.9% VT 3.0% PA 4.8% NC 4.9% SC 4.4% VA 3.8% FL 4.8% NH 2.8% NY 4.3% 4.0% to 4.7% (at or below U.S. rate) 4.8% to 5.4% 5.5% to 5.9% 6.0% or more ME 3.0% DC 5.8% CT 4.8% DE 4.5% MD 4.3% MA 3.6% RI 4.3% NJ 4.2%

Utah Unemployment Rates By County March 2017 State Rate = 3.1% Box Elder 3.2% Tooele 3.5% Juab 3.2% Cache 2.7% Weber 3.5% Morgan Davis 2.9% 2.7% Salt Lake 3.0% Utah 2.8% Rich 3.3% Summit 2.9% Wasatch 3.1% Duchesne 6.3% Carbon 5.2% Daggett 3.9% Uintah 6.6% 3.1% or lower 3.2% to 3.9% Millard 3.3% Sanpete 3.7% Sevier 3.9% Emery 5.4% Grand 5.2% 4.0% to 5.9% Beaver 4.6% Piute 5.3% Wayne 7.6% 6.0% to 6.9% Iron 4.1% Garfield 7.6% San Juan 7.0% 7.0% or greater Washington 3.3% Kane 3.2% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

CA 4.5% WA 4.8% OR 4.5% NV 5.9% UT 5.6% AZ 4.3% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis UT Personal Income Growth 2 nd Highest in the Nation AK -1.0% ID 3.6% Percent Change in Personal Income : 2015 2016 U.S. = 3.6%; UT = 5.6% MT 2.3% WY -1.7% HI 4.5% CO 3.9% NM 2.1% ND -1.5% SD 1.2% NE 2.8% KS 2.8% TX 2.9% OK 0.6% MN 3.0% IA 2.3% MO 3.5% AR 3.2% WI 3.1% LA 1.5% IL 3.1% MS 3.2% MI 3.6% IN 3.9% TN 3.9% AL 3.3% 4.0% or more OH 3.0% KY 2.6% GA 4.8% WV 1.0% VT 3.3% PA 2.9% NC 4.1% SC 4.4% VA 3.6% FL 4.9% NH 4.7% NY 2.9% 3.6% to 3.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease ME 3.7% DC 4.5% CT 3.0% DE 2.9% MD 3.7% MA 4.3% RI 3.1% NJ 3.2%

Utah Has the Most Diverse Economy in the Nation Ten Most Diversified Economies in the Country: Hachman Index 2015 Utah Georgia North Carolina Illinois Missouri California Arizona Tennessee Pennsylvania Ohio 95.5 96.0 96.5 97.0 97.5 98.0 98.5 Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute Analysis of BEA data Note: A Hachman Index value of 100 means that the distribution of employment among industries is exactly the same as the nation. The closer the value to 100, the more diverse the state s economy.

Utah Poverty Rate 5 th Lowest in the Nation CA 13.9% WA 11.4% OR 11.9% NV 13.0% AK 9.2% ID 12.3% UT 9.3% AZ 17.2% 2015 U.S. Rate = 13.5%, 2015 Utah Rate = 9.3% MT 11.9% WY 9.8% HI 10.9% CO 9.9% NM 19.7% ND 10.7% SD 13.9% NE 10.3% KS 14.2% TX 14.7% OK 14.2% MN 7.8% IA 10.4% MO 9.8% AR 16.1% WI 11.4% LA 18.6% IL 10.9% MS 19.1% MI 12.8% IN 13.5% TN 14.7% AL 16.3% 10.0% or less 10.1% to 11.0% OH 13.6% KY 19.5% WV 14.5% VT 10.7% PA 12.3% VA 10.9% NC 15.3% SC 14.3% GA 18.1% FL 16.2% NH 7.3% NY 14.2% 11.1% to 13.5% (at or below the U.S. rate) 13.6% to 16.0% 16.1% or more ME 12.3% DC 16.6% CT 9.1% DE 11.1% MD 9.6% MA 11.5% RI 11.8% NJ 11.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Strong Consumer Sentiment 130 120 110 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity 100 90 80 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index 70 60 50 Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17

Consumer Price Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% United States CPI: +2.2% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +2.8% Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

Utah Median Home Sale Prices Reaching Approaching Pre-Recession Highs $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Utah 2009 2010 U.S. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Graphiq.com reporting data from CoreLogic

1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Utah Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 U.S. Utah Source: Graphiq.com

30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise Forecast 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016e 2017f Single-Family Units Multifamily Total Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight

Utah Value of New Residential Construction Increasing $8,000 Millions of Dollars $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 Forecast $1,000 $0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016e 2018f Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total

Economic Positives Strong consumer and business confidence Housing growth Trumponomics pro growth agenda Strong population growth in the Intermountain West Utah has a diversified economy Utah job growth best in the country Wasatch Front inflation is strong Economic Negatives National and international uncertainty Continued low energy prices Trumponomics success? Depressed business investment Unstable inflation outlook Skills mismatch Low productivity growth Overregulation from Washington

Utah Economic Indicators 2015-2018f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast

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