Affordable Housing Needs www.oklahomahousingneeds.org
P r o j e c t T e a m Owen S. Chip Ard, MAI Executive Vice President chip.ard@am.jll.com David A. Puckett, MAI Senior Vice President david.puckett@am.jll.com Jones Lang LaSalle Valuation & Advisory Services Market Studies & Appraisals 918 492 4844 Byron DeBruler byron@debrulerinc.com Wanda DeBruler wanda@debrulerinc.com DeBruler Inc. 405 396 2032 Dawn F. Jourdan, esq., Ph.D. Director and Associate Professor dawnjourdan@ou.edu K. Meghan Wieters, AICP, Ph.D. Assistant Professor kmeghanwieters@ou.edu Bryce C. Lowery Assistant Professor bryce.c.lowery@ou.edu Regional and City Planning The University of Oklahoma College of Architecture
Study Website OHFA Full Assessment On line: Oklahomahousingneeds.org
Major Findings Statewide 66,821 total housing units needed between 2016 2020 (43,942 for ownership, 22,879 for rent) 7,454 affordable housing units for ownership (under 60% AMI) 11,630 affordable housing units for rent (under 60% AMI) 5,486 affordable housing units for persons age 62 and up 7,410 affordable housing units for persons with one or more disabilities
Blaine Canadian Custer Beckham Woodward Texas
Oklahoma Tulsa Cleveland
$160.00 Oklahoma Total Employment versus Crude Oil Prices Through June 2017 1,750 $140.00 1,700 $120.00 1,650 $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 $40.00 1,400 $20.00 1,350 $0.00 1,300 Employment (Thsnds) Crude Oil (WTI)
200.00% 12 Month Trailing Employment versus Crude Oil Prices (Through June 2017) 4.00% 150.00% 3.00% 2.00% 100.00% 1.00% 50.00% 0.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2.00% 50.00% 3.00% 4.00% 100.00% Employment Crude Oil (WTI) 5.00%
Major Findings Northwest Region 5 Year Population Growth Forecast (Annualized) Total Units Total Units For Area Needed Ownership Alfalfa County 1.37% 196 151 45 Beaver County 0.16% 0 0 0 Blaine County 1.83% 0 0 0 Cimarron County 1.21% 0 0 0 Custer County 1.72% 1,166 732 434 Dewey County 0.59% 48 37 11 Ellis County 0.80% 69 54 15 Garfield County 1.04% 1,430 956 474 Grant County 0.27% 42 32 10 Harper County 1.31% 20 16 4 Kingfisher County 0.81% 252 195 57 Major County 0.61% 113 85 28 Roger Mills County 0.36% 16 13 3 Texas County 1.57% 640 413 227 Woods County 1.04% 210 139 71 Woodward County 1.60% 756 542 214 Regional Sums / Averages 1.02% 4,958 3,365 1,593 Total Units For Rent
Affordable Housing Needs Northwest Region Area For Ownership Under 60% AMI For Rent Under 60% AMI For Seniors Age 62+ For Seniors Age 62+, Under 60% AMI Alfalfa County 34 21 78 28 Beaver County 0 0 0 0 Blaine County 0 0 0 0 Cimarron County 0 0 0 0 Custer County 127 231 290 99 Dewey County 10 4 18 9 Ellis County 15 6 22 11 Garfield County 169 182 406 119 Grant County 6 4 14 5 Harper County 3 1 7 2 Kingfisher County 36 23 72 26 Major County 16 13 37 12 Roger Mills County 3 1 6 2 Texas County 92 89 149 56 Woods County 29 36 66 22 Woodward County 123 92 212 92 Regional Sums / Averages 663 703 1,377 483
Special Needs Northwest Region For Persons with Disabilities, Under 60% AMI For Veterans For Working Families w/children For Persons with Area Disabilities Alfalfa County 59 20 21 42 Beaver County 0 0 0 0 Blaine County 0 0 0 0 Cimarron County 0 0 0 0 Custer County 326 109 90 294 Dewey County 17 8 5 11 Ellis County 21 8 7 18 Garfield County 406 137 175 383 Grant County 13 5 4 11 Harper County 5 1 2 5 Kingfisher County 83 25 20 79 Major County 39 14 12 27 Roger Mills County 6 2 1 4 Texas County 165 63 36 212 Woods County 55 20 23 47 Woodward County 207 90 69 195 Regional Sums / Averages 1,402 502 465 1,328
Housing Cost Burdens Northwest Region Area Overburdened Renters Overburdened Owners Alfalfa County 19.09% 8.22% Beaver County 10.96% 14.31% Blaine County 32.61% 13.59% Cimarron County 13.69% 11.45% Custer County 36.98% 14.72% Dewey County 15.70% 13.69% Ellis County 7.11% 14.93% Garfield County 30.61% 17.59% Grant County 16.63% 15.96% Harper County 22.41% 8.36% Kingfisher County 31.27% 17.42% Major County 33.43% 12.15% Roger Mills County 16.00% 12.19% Texas County 21.22% 16.13% Woods County 30.89% 9.89% Woodward County 27.98% 14.81% Regional Sums / Averages 28.58% 15.09%
How Has Population Growth Compared to the Forecasts? 5 Year Population Growth Forecast (Annualized) Alfalfa County 1.37% 0.22% Beaver County 0.16% 0.61% Blaine County 1.83% 1.48% Cimarron County 1.21% 1.73% Custer County 1.72% 1.08% Dewey County 0.59% 2.53% Ellis County 0.80% 3.48% Garfield County 1.04% 1.19% Grant County 0.27% 0.87% Harper County 1.31% 1.43% Kingfisher County 0.81% 0.43% Major County 0.61% 0.41% Roger Mills County 0.36% 3.06% Texas County 1.57% 1.25% Woods County 1.04% 1.25% Woodward County 1.60% 3.14% Regional Sums / Averages 1.02% 1.33% STATEWIDE 0.81% 0.41% Actual 2015 2016 Growth Actual United States Growth 2015 2016: 0.70%
How Has New Housing Construction Compared with Forecasted Need in 2016? 13,364 units needed in Oklahoma per year 12,521 units permitted in Oklahoma in 2016 8,788 units needed for ownership per year 9,324 single family units permitted in Oklahoma in 2016 4,876 units needed for rent per year 3,197 multifamily units permitted in Oklahoma in 2016
How Has New Affordable Rental Housing Funding Compared with Need Forecasts? Area Needed For Rent Under 60% AMI Needed For Rent Under 60% AMI, Per Year (Rounded) Alfalfa County 21 4 0 Beaver County 0 0 0 Blaine County 0 0 0 Cimarron County 0 0 0 Custer County 231 46 48 Dewey County 4 1 0 Ellis County 6 1 0 Garfield County 182 36 0 Grant County 4 1 0 Harper County 1 0 0 Kingfisher County 23 5 0 Major County 13 3 0 Roger Mills County 1 0 0 Texas County 89 18 0 Woods County 36 7 0 Woodward County 92 18 0 Regional Sums 703 141 48 STATEWIDE 11,630 2,326 483 Newly Constructed Tax Credit Units Funded in 2016
David A. Puckett, MAI Senior Vice President JLL Valuation & Advisory Services Tulsa, OK +1 918 492 4844, x104 david.puckett@am.jll.com Thank you COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016