Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP

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2 Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Percent Change, SAAR Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

3 National Employment Thousands, Month-over- Month Recession 8 Months Recession 18 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.

4 State Employment Growth Year-over-Year October 2016 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

5 Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor Force Average U-6 U-6 U-5 9.3% Average U-3 U-3 5.8% 4.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

6 Labor Force Participation Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

7 Labor Force Participation Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

8 Labor Force Participation Rates National by Age Cohort LFPR Peak 2015 Current Age Group Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).

9 Labor Force and Unemployment Rate National by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, 2015 Percentage LFPR Unemployment Rate 0 Less than a High School diploma High School graduates Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS).

10 U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Change 4.0 Real Disposable Income Percent Change 4.0 Real Personal Consumption % % Sources: Consensus Forecasts.

11 Household Wealth Q Q $ Trillions Other Assets Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Mutual Funds Corporate Equities Real Estate Total Liabilities Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B.101) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

12 Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR Debt Service Ratio (L) FOR Financial Obligations Ratio (R) Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

13 Index of Consumer Confidence 1985=100 Recession 8 months 160 Recession 18 months 140 Mountain Region United States Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.

14 Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Thousands, SAAR 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Vehicle Sales Annual Percent Change Retail and Food Services Sales Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody s Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

15 Nominal Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment Percent Change Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits Percent Change Business Fixed Investment % % Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.

16 ISM Indices ISM Manufacturing Index ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

17 National FHFA Home Price Growth Year over Year Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.

18 Housing Affordability Index Composite Index Source: National Association of Realtors.

19 National Housing Starts Millions Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.

20 Federal Budget Balance $ Billions $570-1,000-1,200-1,400-1, Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.18B, Consensus Forecasts.

21 International Trade Major Export Destinations Other 39% Export Destinations Index Jan. 1997= Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar, Canada 18% Switzerland 3% Germany 3% Republic of Korea 4% Malaysia 5% Japan 6% China 8% Mexico 14% Sources: World Institute for Strategic Economic Research, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Broad Dollar Index, and National Bureau of Economic Research. Data through November 10, 2016.

22 Money, Interest Rates, and Prices

23 Interest Rates Percent 7.0 Interest Rates, (Forecast) Year T-Note Month T-Bill Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody s.

24 National Inflation Year-over-Year Percent Change Shelter All items less food and energy All items Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (SA).

25 Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices

26 Change in Population Change in Colorado Population Thousands 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 Net Migration 2nd-fastest state for percentage growth 7th-fastest state for absolute growth 5th-most net migration 96% of growth along Front Range 40,000 20, Natural Increase Denver now the most populous county Continued net migration into the state Source: Colorado Demography Office.

27 Colorado Employment Growth Jobs Added Thousands , Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, BEOF Committee Members.

28 Employment Change Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Construction Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Financial Activities Government Other Services Manufacturing Information Natural Resources and Mining Thousands of Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

29 Regional Employment Growth and Unemployment Greeley Fort Collins Boulder Denver-Aurora- Lakewood Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Employment Growth YoY % Change September 2016 Colorado 2.7% Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Unemployment Rate September 2015 Colorado SA 3.8%, 3.0% NSA Greeley Fort Collins Boulder Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Percentage 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Percentage Sources: CES (Seasonally Adjusted) and LAUS (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

30 Agriculture Photo courtesy of Jill Lambert.

Gross Farm Revenue and Net Income 2007-2017 $ Millions 10,000 9,000

Expenses $7.1B 1,000 Photo courtesy of Sandy Wilt.

31 Gross Farm Revenue and Net Income $ Millions 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Net Income Farm Production Expenses $7.1B 1,000 Photo courtesy of Sandy Wilt Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

32 Livestock Cash Receipts $ Millions 6,000 5,000 65% of total value of production in Colorado 4,000 3,000 2,000 $4.1B Rebuilding herds in favorable low cost environment Fed cattle numbers rebounding from the 2015 record low Number of cattle sales anticipated to drop to lowest level since , Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

33 Commodity Prices Wheat and Corn Dollars Wheat 4.0 Corn Sources: Bloomberg (USDA Toledo No.2 Yellow Corn Not on the River Spot Price, USDA No. 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat Spot Price/Kansas City Missouri). As of November 2016.

34 Crops Cash Receipts $ Millions 3,000 2,500 Corn prices remain low as yield is projected to reach record highs 2,000 1,500 1,000 $1.9B Major crops: wheat, corn, and hay Cash receipts expected to fall in 2017 to $321MM Government payments expected to increase in Innovation will play an increasing role for agriculture Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

35 Net Farm Income $ Millions 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, $ Source: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Agriculture Committee.

36 Construction Value of Construction Nonbuilding 17% Nonresidential 30% Residential 53% Photo Courtesy

37 Housing Units vs. Households Annual Change 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Housing Units ,895 more housing units than households ,817 more households than housing units 30,000 20,000 10,000 Households Source: Colorado State Demography Office.

38 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices September 2016 New York Washington, D.C. Cleveland Boston Chicago Minneapolis Phoenix Atlanta San Diego Las Vegas San Francisco Detroit Los Angeles Charlotte Miami Tampa Dallas Denver Portland Seattle 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Percent Change Source: Standard & Poor s (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

39 Residential Building Permits ,000 35,000 36,700 Residential Housing: 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Multifamily Home appreciation among the fastest nationally Mostly single family permits in 2016 Decrease in multifamily 10,000 5,000 0 Single Family Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

40 Value of Construction Residential, $Millions 10,000 $9.7 B 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Value of Construction Nonresidential, 2007-2017 $ Millions 6,000 $5,400 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2009 2011

41 Value of Construction Nonresidential, $ Millions 6,000 $5,400 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee. Photo courtesy of Xcel Energy.

42 Value of Construction $ Millions 20,000 18,000 $17.9 B 16,000 14,000 12,000 Nonbuilding 10,000 8,000 6,000 Nonresidential 4,000 2,000 0 Residential Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

Construction Employment, 2007-2017 Thousands 180 160 166 140

20 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Sources: Colorado Department

43 Construction Employment, Thousands Photo Courtesy of Breckenridge Brewery Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

44 Natural Resources and Mining

45 WTI Oil Price Dollars per Barrel June 3, 2008: $ December 2, 2014: $ Average December 2, 2015: $39.93 December 2, 2016: $ Source: EIA, Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel).

46 Value of Natural Resources $ Millions $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $13.3 Coal Minerals CO2 Natural Gas Crude Oil $ Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Minerals Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

47 Crude Oil Production Largest Producers 1. Texas 2. North Dakota 3. California 4. Alaska 5. Oklahoma 6. New Mexico 7. Colorado 8. Wyoming 9. Louisiana 10. Kansas Millions of Barrels Sources: Rankings from the Energy Information Administration. Production data from Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

48 Natural Gas Production Billions of Cubic Feet 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, ,641 Sixth-largest producing state Projected price higher due to expected colder temperatures Average residential gas prices in Colorado for 2016 were the 10 th lowest in the country Total production stagnant due to low prices Value of production to increase slightly Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

49 Coal Production Lowest production levels since the mid-1990s State ranking slipped to 10 th in 2016 Short Tons (Millions) Government mandates for renewables limiting production Decreasing demand from TVA Power plants divesting from coal Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

50 Colorado O&G Severance Taxes Severance Taxes, 12-Mo. Rolling Sum $350 WTI, 12-Mo. Ave. $/Barrel $120 $300 $250 Severance Taxes (L Axis) WTI Spot Price (R Axis) $110 $100 $90 $200 $80 $150 $70 $100 $50 $60 $50 $40 $ $30 Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB; Colorado Department of Revenue.

2% of net generation in 2015 Most of Colorado s renewable energy comes from

51 Renewables First renewable portfolio standard in the country Includes wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, and biomass 17.2% of net generation in 2015 Most of Colorado s renewable energy comes from wind resources Colorado ranks 10 th nationally for total megawatts installed for wind energy Photo courtesy of Xcel Energy.

52 Natural Resources and Mining Workers Added, Thousands Sources: Colorado Geological Survey Mineral and Mineral Fuel Activity Reports, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Department of Minerals and Geology, and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

53 Mesa County

54 Real Gross Domestic Product Grand Junction MSA Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Percentage Change 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% $ % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

55 Non-Ag Employment Grand Junction MSA Thousands Months.. +3,800 jobs, +6.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Data Series, SA.

56 Non-Ag Employment Grand Junction MSA Year-over-Year Percent Change Labor Department expected revisions Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES Data Series, SA.

57 Mesa County Wages Annual Rate (4Q Rolling) $ Millions 2,800 2,600 2, M -4.6% 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.

58 Mesa County Average Wages Annual Rate (4Q) $ Millions 45,000 40, % 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.

59 2015 Average Annual Wages Western Slope Colorado Dollars 60,000 Colorado Statewide 50,000 40,000 $41,378 30,000 20,000 10,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

60 Grand Junction Bank Deposits Deposits, Millions $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 Percent Change (R-axis) Percent Change 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Deposits (L-axis) % 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Source: FDIC, Deposit Market Share Report.

61 Grand Junction MSA Employment Change October 2016 Month over Month 1-Year 3-Year (CAGR) 5-Year (CAGR) 10-Year (CAGR) Total 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% Mining, Logging, and Construction 0.0% 3.1% 1.0% 3.2% 2.2% Manufacturing 3.3% 0.0% 1.2% 2.2% 1.3% Wholesale 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 2.6% 1.3% Retail 1.2% 1.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% Transportation and Utilities 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% Information 0.0% 14.3% 9.1% 5.6% 4.0% Financial Activities 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.0% 0.6% Professional and Business Services 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% Education and Health Services 1.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.0% Leisure and Hospitality 2.5% 4.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.1% Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% Government 0.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.0% 1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Excludes expected revisions from the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.

62 Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA Q Q Boulder Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Greeley Fort Collins Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Colorado 11.4% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% Percent Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Prices by MSA CAGR Q Q Boulder Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Greeley Fort Collins Pueblo Colorado Springs Grand Junction Colorado 3.0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Percent Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, All Transactions Indexes.

63 Single Family v. Multifamily Permits Grand Junction MSA Permits 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Permit 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, YTD 2016 YTD Sources: U.S. Census Bureau.

64 Residential Permits and Valuation Grand Junction MSA Permits 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 $ Millions 400 1, , , , YTD 2016 YTD 0 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau.

65 Drilling Permits by County 2016 YTD Permits 2,000 1,800 1,600 PROWERS GARFIELD LA PLATA ADAMS JACKSON RIO BLANCO MORGAN OTERO MOFFAT GUNNISON ARAPAHOE LARIMER WASHINGTON ARCHULETA DOLORES LINCOLN FREMONT KIT CARSON LOGAN MONTEZUMA WELD 1,400 1,200 Weld and Garfield = 84.0% Western Slope = 33.6% Mesa County = 0% 1, Source: COGCC.

66 Drilling Permits by County YTD October 1st 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Rest of Colorado Western Slope Share 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% YTD Source: COGCC. 0%

67 Thank You

68 Colorado Ranking Among Other States Metric 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Real GDP Growth Employment Growth Population Growth Personal Income Growth PCPI Growth PCPI Average Annual Pay % Growth Average Annual Pay Unemployment Rate Labor Force % Growth FHFA Home Price Index Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (2015), Bureau of Labor Statistics (10/16), U.S. Census Bureau (2015), Bureau of Labor Statistics (2015), Bureau Federal Housing Finance Agency All Transactions Index (Q3 2016), BRD calculations. Note: 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year are based on the compound annual growth rate.

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