The 2015 Mid-Year Economic Update

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com The 2015 Mid-Year Economic Update Brian

1 Download slides here at or The 2015 Mid-Year Economic Update Brian Lewandowski and Thomas P. Gale June 18, 2015 Produced by: Sponsored by:

2 Download slides here at or Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Overview Brian Lewandowski 2015 Economic Benchmarks for Wholesale Distribution Thomas P. Gale Q&A Produced by: Sponsored by:

2015 Economic Benchmarks for Wholesale Distribution Discount Code: EBWD15 (Offer valid through July 2, 2015) Save 10% on these reports Analysis of 18 sectors (available for individual sale) Apparel &

3 2015 Economic Benchmarks for Wholesale Distribution Discount Code: EBWD15 (Offer valid through July 2, 2015) Save 10% on these reports Analysis of 18 sectors (available for individual sale) Apparel & Piece Goods Agricultural Products Beer, Wine & Liquor Building Materials & Construction Chemicals & Plastics Commercial Equipment & Supplies Computer Equipment & Software Electrical & Electronics Furniture & Home Furnishings Grocery & Foodservice Hardware, Plumbing & Heating Equipment/Supplies Industrial Metal Service Centers Miscellaneous Durable Goods Motor Vehicle & Motor Vehicle Parts Office Products Oil & Gas Other Consumer Products

4 2015 Economic Benchmarks for Wholesale Distribution Discount Code: EBWD15 (Offer valid through July 2, 2015) Save 10% on these reports Analysis of 18 sectors (available for individual sale) Trend Data Revenues, Inventories, Inventory-to-Sales Ratio, Total Employment, Average Annual Revenues per Employee and Average Weekly Earnings Sector Summary 2014 Revenues, Percent of Industry Revenues, No. of Companies and Average Gross Margin Summary Trend Data 2014 Actual Revenues, 2014 Real Revenues, Revenue Gap and 2014 Q4 Employment Revenue Forecasts for 2015 & 2016 Sector Growth vs. U.S. GDP Growth :Q1 to 2014:Q4 Employment Size Distribution Actual Revenue Growth Quarterly 2004 to Present Real Revenue Growth Quarterly 2004 to Present Employment Growth Quarterly 2004 to Present Inventory-to-Sales Ratio 3-Month Moving Average with Trendline

5 Download slides here at or Speakers Brian Lewandowski Associate Director at the Business Research Division of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado Boulder Thomas P. Gale President and CEO of Gale Media, Inc., and publisher of Modern Distribution Management and mdm.com Produced by: Sponsored by:

Epicor Value Proposition Company Founded in 1972 Nearly $1B Revenue* ~ 4,600 employees worldwide, 400 partners Customers Customer-centric focus Standard tiered solution to global enterprises Over

6 Epicor Value Proposition Company Founded in 1972 Nearly $1B Revenue* ~ 4,600 employees worldwide, 400 partners Customers Customer-centric focus Standard tiered solution to global enterprises Over 20,000 customers Products End-to-end solutions focused by industry Manufacturing, retail, distribution, services World-class functionality Technology Leading business software company based on Microsoft.NET and Web services architecture Solutions designed for flexibility, extensibility and scalability Services Single point accountability with direct global sales and support Supporting customers in 150+ countries, 30+ languages Proven rapid ROI and low TCO Epicor Software Corporation

7 Epicor as a Partner to Distributors Experience Market Share #1 Mid Market 52% Of Our Revenue 42 Years 34% Industrial Big 50 49% Supply Times Premier 150 9,000 Customers 10.5 Years Avg. Tenure of Distribution Experience 56% Electrical Top % Wholesaler Top Epicor Software Corporation

8 The 2015 Mid-Year Economic Update: Positive Prospects for the Industry Place cover image here Brian Lewandowski Associate Director, Business Research Division June 18, 2015

9 Economic Benchmarks for Wholesale Distribution and the Economic Outlook Today s Discussion Economic outlook Sales and inventory trends Specific industries Highlights from the 2015 Economic Benchmarks report About the Economic Benchmarks for Wholesale Distribution report data Foundational data from U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis Based on latest Wholesale Trade Survey and Economic Census Include revenue growth forecasts

10 Core Wholesale Distribution Revenue Growth YoY Percent Change 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Note: Core excludes the agriculture and the oil and gas sectors.

11 Summary of 2014 Performance by Sector Major Sector (Largest to Smallest Sector Revenues) Actual Revenues (2014) Real Revenues* (2014) Revenue Gap (Actual - Real) Oil and Gas Products Wholesale Distributors 1.3% 6.9% -5.7% Grocery and Foodservice Wholesale Distributors 7.0% 3.4% 3.6% Pharmaceutical Wholesalers 12.7% 6.9% 5.8% Industrial Distributors 10.7% 9.1% 1.6% Electrical and Electronics Wholesalers 5.2% 5.5% -0.3% Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Parts Wholesale Distributors 4.9% 4.3% 0.6% Computer Equipment and Software Wholesale Distributors 3.9% 6.1% -2.3% Other Consumer Products Wholesale Distributors -1.5% -1.4% 0.0% Agricultural Products Wholesale Distributors -3.0% 10.6% -13.6% Miscellaneous Durable Goods Wholesale Distributors -2.3% -3.1% 0.8% Commercial Equipment and Supplies Wholesale Distributors 5.9% 6.8% -0.9% Metal Service Centers 11.6% 10.1% 1.4% Apparel and Piece Goods Wholesale Distributors 9.6% 9.1% 0.4% Chemicals and Plastics Wholesale Distributors 5.8% 6.1% -0.3% Beer, Wine and Liquor Wholesalers 2.6% 1.7% 0.9% Building Material and Construction Wholesale Distributors 6.2% 1.9% 4.3% Hardware, Plumbing, and Heating Equipment/Supplies Wholesalers 5.1% 3.7% 1.4% Office Product Wholesalers and Paper Merchants 6.0% 4.4% 1.6% Furniture and Home Furnishing Wholesale Distributors 5.9% 3.0% 2.9% Total 5.1% 5.4% -0.3%

12 GDP and Potential GDP Trillions, Month-over- Month 22.0 Recession Months Recession 18 Months Potential GDP Actual Projected GDP Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Budget and Economic Outlook; Bureau of Economic Analysis.

13 Real GDP Growth Percent Quarterly and Annualized Real GDP Annualized GDP Annualized GDP Quarterly GDP Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and February 2013 NABE Forecast.

14 National Employment Monthly Change Thousands, Month-over-Month Recession 8 Months Recession 18 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, and NABE Outlook February 2013.

15 National Employment Months to Recovery Percent 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Present -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% Number of Months Since Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

16 National Employment Months to Recovery Percent 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% % 0.0% Present -5.0% -10.0% Number of Months Since Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

17 National Employment Growth Prerecession Peak-to-May 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted.

18 Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor force % 5.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

19 Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor force % 10.8% U-6 U-5 U-4 U-3 U-2 U Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

20 Initial and Continuing Claims Continuing Claims 7,000,000 Initial Claims 700,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 Initial Claims Continuing Claims 600, , ,000 3,000,000 Average Initial Claims 300,000 2,000, ,000 1,000, , Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

21 Job Gains by Wholesale Distribution Sector Grocery and Foodservice Wholesaler- Distributors Electrical and Electronics Wholesalers Pharmaceutical Wholesalers Other Consumer Products (periodicals, tobacco + florist) Wholesalers Agricultural Products Wholesalers Computer, Commercial and Medical Equipment Wholesalers and Distributors Office Product Wholesalers and Paper Merchants Chemicals and Plastics Distributors Plumbing and HVAC Wholesalers Motor Vehicle Aftermarket Parts and Supplies Wholesalers Building Material Wholesalers and Distributors Apparel Wholesalers Metal Service Centers Beer, Wine and Liquor Wholesaler-Distributors Industrial Distributors Furniture and Home Furnishings Wholesalers Sporting Goods, Toys/Hobby and Jewelry Wholesaler-Distributors Oil and Gas Products Wholesalers Computer and Computer Peripheral Equipment and Software 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Percent Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

22 Jobs Deficit by Wholesale Distribution Sector From Pre-recession Peak Computer, Commercial and Medical Equipment Wholesalers Computer and Computer Peripheral Equipment and Software Sporting Goods, Toys/Hobby and Jewelry Wholesaler-Distributors Building Material Wholesalers and Distributors Other Consumer Products Wholesalers Office Product Wholesalers and Paper Merchants Pharmaceutical Wholesalers Electrical and Electronics Wholesalers Beer, Wine and Liquor Wholesaler-Distributors Apparel Wholesalers Industrial Distributors Motor Vehicle Aftermarket Parts and Supplies Wholesalers Chemicals and Plastics Distributors Grocery and Foodservice Wholesaler- Distributors Oil and Gas Products Wholesalers Furniture and Home Furnishings Wholesalers Plumbing and HVAC Wholesalers Agricultural Products Wholesalers Metal Service Centers Thousands Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

23 Household Wealth $ Billions 105,000 90,000 75,000 Other Assets 60,000 45,000 Financial Assets 30,000 15,000 0 Real Estate -15,000 1Q 2000 Liabilities 1Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2015 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations (B100) (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

24 S&P 500 2,400 2,200 +8% 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, % +210% Source: Bloomberg.

25 Index of Consumer Confidence 1985= Recession 8 months Recession 8 months Recession 18 months Sources: The Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research.

26 U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Change 4.0 Disposable Personal Income 3.4% Percent Change 4.0 Personal Consumption % % 2.9% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

27 Vehicle Sales and Retail Sales Thousands, SAAR 25,000 Vehicle Sales Retail and Food Services Sales Annual Percent Change , ,000 10,000 5, Sources: Autodata Corp., Motor Intelligence, U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

28 Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR Debt Service Ratio (L) Financial Obligations Ratio (R) FOR Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

29 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 1-year Home Price Change, April 2015 Washington Cleveland New York Phoenix Minneapolis Chicago Detroit San Diego Boston Charlotte Atlanta Las Vegas Los Angeles Tampa Portland Seattle Dallas Miami San Francisco Denver 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Percent Change Source: Standard & Poor s (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

National FHFA Home Price Growth Year-over-Year Q1 2015 Source:

30 National FHFA Home Price Growth Year-over-Year Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.

31 Housing Affordability Index Composite Source: National Association of Realtors, Composite Index.

32 Houses For Sale and Months' Supply New SF Home Inventory (thousands) SF Homes for Sale Housing Supply Months of Supply Source: New Houses Sold and For Sale, U.S. Census Bureau.

33 Total Employment v. Construction Percent 15.0% 10.0% Oil and Gas Extraction 5.0% 0.0% Total -5.0% -10.0% Construction -15.0% -20.0% Number of Months Since Peak Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

34 U.S. Building Permits Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Thousands 2, % 2,000 Multifamily MF Share (Right Axis) 50.0% 1,500 1, Single Family 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% % Source : U.S. Census Bureau, New Privately Owned Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits in Permit-Issuing Places (SAAR).

35 National Housing Starts Millions Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Consensus Forecasts.

36 ISM Indices 70.0 ISM Manufacturing Index 70 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

37 U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index and Real Net Exports U.S. Nominal Broad Dollar Index 1973= $ Billions Real Net Exports $544 -$ Sources: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Consensus Forecasts.

38 Inventory $Millions Core Wholesale Distribution Nominal Inventory Value 3-Mo. Moving Ave Core Wholesale Distribution Inventory-to-Sales Ratio 550, , , , , , , , , , ,

39 The FED QE 1 $ Millions 5,000,000 QE 2 Fed promises near zero interest rates until mid-2013, 2014, 2015, 2016? Operation Twist 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Other Assets Mortgage Backed Securities Federal Agency Debt Securities Treasury Securities Swaps Tapering 1,000, , Source: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet.

40 Interest Rates Percent 9.0 Interest Rates, Year T-Note Month T-Bill Sources: U.S. Treasury.

41 Commercial Crude Oil Storage Millions of Barrels June 5, 2015: Average Source: Energy Information Association (EIA), Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks excluding SPR of Crude Oil.

42 WTI Oil Price Dollars per Barrel $ $ $ July 3, 2008: $ June 9, 2014: $ $ $80.00 Average $60.00 $40.00 June 8, 2015: $58.15 $20.00 $ Source: Energy Information Association (EIA), Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB.

43 Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price Dollars per Million BTU $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 July 4, 2008: $13.20 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 Average Average June 6, 2014: $4.61 June 5, 2015: $2.65 $ Source: Energy Information Association (EIA), Weekly Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (Dollars per Million Btu).

44 National Gasoline Prices Dollars per Gallon $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 Average $3.00 June 16, 2014: $3.76 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 June 15, 2015: $2.92 $1.00 $0.50 $ Source: Weekly Colorado All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon).

45 WTI Oil Price Forecast Dollars per Barrel $ $ $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 Historical Price EIA Forecast Lower CI Upper CI Moody's Forecast $20.00 $ Source: Energy Information Association (EIA), SPEO, Cushing, OK WTI, Moody s Analytics.

46 Thank You

47 2014 Wholesale Distribution Industry Performance Measure Value % chng Industry revenues ($B), 2014:Q4 $1, % Industry revenues ($B), 2014 $5, % Total Employment, 2014:Q4 4,963, % Avg. annual revenues per emp. $1,095, % % change vs. previous year Source: 2015 Economic Benchmarks for Wholesale Distribution 2015 Gale Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

48 Select Sector Performance/Forecast % change vs. previous year Major Sector 2014 Actual Revenue 2015 Forecast 2016 Forecast Industrial 10.7% Electrical/Electronics 5.2% Oil & Gas 6.3% Bldg Material/Construction 6.2% Hardware, Plumbing & HVAC 5.1% 8.3% 7.0% -22.4% 9.9% 8.6% 9.0% 9.0% 24.8% 14.7% 10.2% Source: 2015 Economic Benchmarks for Wholesale Distribution 2015 Gale Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

49 2015 Economic Benchmarks for Wholesale Distribution Discount Code: EBWD15 (Offer valid through July 2, 2015) Save 10% on these reports Analysis of 18 sectors (available for individual sale) Apparel & Piece Goods Agricultural Products Beer, Wine & Liquor Building Materials & Construction Chemicals & Plastics Commercial Equipment & Supplies Computer Equipment & Software Electrical & Electronics Furniture & Home Furnishings Grocery & Foodservice Hardware, Plumbing & Heating Equipment/Supplies Industrial Metal Service Centers Miscellaneous Durable Goods Motor Vehicle & Motor Vehicle Parts Office Products Oil & Gas Other Consumer Products

50 2015 Economic Benchmarks for Wholesale Distribution Discount Code: EBWD15 (Offer valid through July 2, 2015) Save 10% on these reports Analysis of 18 sectors (available for individual sale) Trend Data Revenues, Inventories, Inventory-to-Sales Ratio, Total Employment, Average Annual Revenues per Employee and Average Weekly Earnings Sector Summary 2014 Revenues, Percent of Industry Revenues, No. of Companies and Average Gross Margin Summary Trend Data 2014 Actual Revenues, 2014 Real Revenues, Revenue Gap and 2014 Q4 Employment Revenue Forecasts for 2015 & 2016 Sector Growth vs. U.S. GDP Growth :Q1 to 2014:Q4 Employment Size Distribution Actual Revenue Growth Quarterly 2004 to Present Real Revenue Growth Quarterly 2004 to Present Employment Growth Quarterly 2004 to Present Inventory-to-Sales Ratio 3-Month Moving Average with Trendline

51 Download slides here at or Thank you! Questions? June 18, 2015 Produced by: Sponsored by:

52 Download slides here at or The 2015 Mid-Year Economic Update Brian Lewandowski and Tom Gale June 18, 2015 Produced by: Sponsored by:

2016 Mid-Year Economic Update

2016 Mid-Year Economic Update Featuring: Brian Lewandowski, University of Colorado Boulder Jenel Stelton-Holtmeier, Modern Distribution Management Sponsored by: June 14, 2016 Introduction Macroeconomic