Kantar Public Election Talk: German Election Is Merkel s reelection a forgone conclusion?
Dr. Nico A. Siegel CEO Kantar Public Germany Managing Director Infratest dimap Jürgen Hofrichter Senior Director Infratest dimap Christoph Döbele Consultant Kantar Public 2
1 Basic facts on electoral system and history
German Electoral System Christinan Union Social Democrats Liberals/FDP Greens Left AfD Election system: Personalized proportional representation Two votes: one for candidate in constituency, one for party list (at state level) 299 seats for directly elected candidates (majority vote) Remaining seats: 299+ distributed among party lists (strict proportional representation) 5% threshold or 3 direct seats Total seat distribution according strict proportional representation 299 constituencies 4
German Electoral History Christinan Union Social Democrats Liberals/FDP Greens Left AfD Germany: country of coalitions (grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD built two out of the three last governments) no single party governments at Federal level 16 states, strong federalism 13 different government coalitions in 16 states 5
German Electoral History turnout 100 90 80 70 71,5 60 turnout 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1972 1976 1980 1983 1987 1990 1994 1998 2002 2005 2009 2013 78,5 86,0 87,8 87,7 86,8 86,7 91,1 90,7 88,6 89,1 84,3 77,8 79,0 82,2 79,1 77,7 70,8 71,5 6
German Electoral History: party vote shares of CDU/CSU and SPD 60 50 40 41,5 30 20 10 0 Christian Union Social Democrats 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1972 1976 1980 1983 1987 1990 1994 1998 2002 2005 2009 2013 31,0 45,2 50,2 45,3 47,6 46,1 44,9 48,6 44,5 48,8 44,3 43,8 41,4 35,1 38,5 35,2 33,8 41,5 25,7 29,2 28,8 31,8 36,2 39,3 42,7 45,8 42,6 42,9 38,2 37,0 33,5 36,4 40,9 38,5 34,2 23,0 25,7 7
German Electoral History In 18 Federal Elections (FE), Social Democrats became strongest party only three times: 1972, 1998 and 2002 Long-term party identification of electorate: larger share for Christian Union, particularly among elderly voters Social Democrat only have the chance to become strongest party if candidate, party competence profile is strong and CDU/CSU top candidate for chancellor office is weak! 8
2 Ahead of the German elections
Unemployment rate Economic growth 14 10,0 12 Eurozone 8,0 6,0 10 4,0 Germany 8 2,0 6 0,0-2,0 Eurozone 4 2 Germany -4,0-6,0-8,0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-10,0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Unemployment rate (according to labour force survey) Source: Eurostat Real GDP growth Source: OECD / federal statistical office Germany 10
Perception of general economic situation 11
Satisfaction with the Federal Government 12
Generalised perception of fairness 13
Which party should lead the next government? 14
Which party should lead the next government? 15
Vote intention 16
Vote intention over time 50 45 40 35 30 37 Christian Union 25 20 15 20 Social Democrats 10 5 0 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 If there were a federal election next Sunday, which party would you vote for? Universe: Persons entitled to vote in Germany / Order of the parties represents the results of the last Federal Election In percent 17
Vote intention over time 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 12 9,5 9 7,5 AfD Liberals Left Greens 4 2 0 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 If there were a federal election next Sunday, which party would you vote for? Universe: Persons entitled to vote in Germany In percent 18
Candidate preference: Merkel vs. Schulz 19
3 and what about populist attitudes?
Europeans and populism All in all, are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with the way democracy works in (COUNTRY)? 47 41 UK 12 60 35 NL 64 5 36 satisfied 0 not satisfied don t know 51 45 4 GERMANY FRANCE 21 21
Europeans and populism 43 57 31 26 21 22 UK NL 65 For more than 20 years, the elites in (COUNTRY) have completely failed 81 28 7 totally agree / tend to agree tend to disagree / totally disagree don t know 12 7 FRANCE GERMANY 22
Europeans and populism 78 67 13 9 UK 23 NL 9 74 What we need in our country is a strong leader who restores order 77 24 2 GERMANY totally agree / tend to agree tend to disagree / totally disagree 17 6 don t know FRANCE 23
Satisfaction with the way democracy works 24
Everything will be all right! Everyone will be raging! 25
4 What else we do around the elections
Social Media Monitoring #btwgezwitscher monitors tweets about party candidates https://www.infratest-dimap.de/btwgezwitscher/ Identifies current topics and discussions Activities on twitter largely mirror mass media coverage fqefeqff CDU SPD FDP AfD CDU Night of TV Debate - 03 September 2017 27
Exit Poll on election day 28
Exit Poll on election day 2017 820 correspondentes in 624 polling stations (+152 postal vote districts) Exit-Poll 2013 6 pm forecast: 250 CATI interviewers in 5 studios Ca. 100.000 interviews, Thereof 15.000 with a longer questionnare official result: 29