Scott Kellen
NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33 9/18/2016 7 A Minnesota Vikings 9.55 9/25/2016 7 H Detroit Lions 7.24 BYE 10/9/2016 14 H New York Giants 8.1 10/16/2016 7 H Dallas Cowboys 9.2 10/20/2016 4 H Chicago Bears 7.26 10/30/2016 10 A Atlanta Falcons 7.36 11/6/2016 7 H Indianapolis Colts 8.62 11/13/2016 7 A Tennessee Titans 6.19 11/20/2016 7 A Washington Redskins 7.09 11/28/2016 8 A Philadelphia Eagles 6.78 12/4/2016 6 H Houston Texans 8.5 12/11/2016 7 H Seattle Seahawks 10.59 12/18/2016 7 A Chicago Bears 7.26 12/24/2016 6 H Minnesota Vikings 9.55 1/1/2017 8 A Detroit Lions 7.24 # of Opponents with 8 or more projected wins Teams with 8 or more proj. wins Division game Three home games in a row O/U projected wins for the opponent Days between games Three or more road games in a row 2
PROJECTED LINE SAMPLE WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % 1 9/11/2016 H New England -5.5 0.679 5:30 2 9/18/2016 H Tampa Bay -9 0.789 1:05 3 9/25/2016 A Buffalo -2.5 0.512 10:00 AM 4 10/2/2016 H Los Angeles -7 0.754 1:25 5 10/6/2016 A San Francisco -6 0.733 5:25 6 10/17/2016 H NY Jets -4 0.668 5:30 7 10/23/2016 H Seattle -1 0.509 5:30 8 10/30/2016 A Carolina 3.5 0.402 1:25 10 11/13/2016 H San Francisco -10.5 0.792 2:25 11 11/20/2016 A Minnesota 1.5 0.476 11:00 AM 12 11/27/2016 A Atlanta -2.5 0.512 11:00 AM 13 12/4/2016 H Washington -6.5 0.634 2:25 14 12/11/2016 A Miami -3 0.583 11:00 AM 15 12/18/2016 H New Orleans -9 0.789 2:05 16 12/24/2016 A Seattle 3.5 0.402 2:25 17 1/1/2017 A Los Angeles 0.500 2:25 For week 17 I gave each team a 50% chance of winning their game seeing lines can be very different in week 17 based on motivation the last week of the season. Projected lines from CG Technologies Las Vegas SU Win probability based on past performance for these lines 1983-2015 Start time for team (EST) Projected wins 9.734 3
AFC EAST SCHEDULE Pythagorean Theorem The Pythagorean theorem is a formula that calculates a team s points scored and allowed into an expected winning percentage. Based on this formula for the 2016 season, New England slightly over achieved by about a half win last year. Meanwhile, the Bills slightly under achieved by about a half win last year. This is probably the only division where the numbers are pretty accurate to their actual wins and losses last year. Obviously offseason moves, injuries, etc will also play into this seasons wins and losses. Pythagorean Theorem 2016 SU Margin 2016 Actual Record 2016 Adjusted Record Difference Close Games <=7 pts Team W L T W L Wins Losses New England 14 2 0 12.7 3.3 1.3 5 1 Miami 10 6 0 7.6 8.4 2.4 8 2 Buffalo 7 9 0 8.5 7.5-1.5 2 6 NY Jets 5 11 0 4.5 11.5 0.5 3 4 TEAM PROJ WINS TOTAL OPP WINS Schedule Rank PROJ WINS BASED ON PRED LINES New England Patriots 12.35 124.55 28 10.96 New York Jets 3.8 133.7 4 5.72 Buffalo Bills 6.65 133.7 5 7.10 Miami Dolphins 7.45 132.65 10 7.60 Update: I will update all numbers shortly and post on the website. The table to the left shows projected wins as set by the odds makers for 2017. The expected win total is an average from the over and under lines for each team, factoring in the extra juice typically applied to these lines. The Jets projected over under win total is 7.59 wins. When factoring in all of their opponents projected win totals, they add up to 135.25 wins and rank as the 3rd hardest schedule. NE has the 24th toughest schedule. In other words they have a very easy schedule. Based on projected lines for all games we can develop a projected win pct based on those lines. The Pat are only projected to win 9.65 wins vs their 10.4 win projection. While the Jets have a tough schedule their numbers are a little cheap as is Miami, while NE and Buffalo have medium to easy schedules but their numbers appear a little expensive. 4
Buffalo WK DATE HA OPPONENT 10 1 9/10/2017 H NY Jets 3.8 2 9/17/2017 7 A Carolina 9.2 3 9/24/2017 7 H Denver 8.2 4 10/1/2017 7 A Atlanta 9.55 5 10/8/2017 7 A Cincinnati 8.35 6 BYE 7 10/22/2017 14 H Tampa Bay 8.2 8 10/29/2017 7 H Oakland 9.8 9 11/2/2017 4 A NY Jets 3.8 11/12/2017 10 H New Orleans 7.9 11 11/19/2017 7 A LA Chargers 7.65 12 11/26/2017 7 A Kansas City 9.1 13 12/3/2017 7 H New England 12.35 14 12/10/2017 7 H Indianapolis 8.55 15 12/17/2017 7 H Miami 7.45 16 12/24/2017 7 A New England 12.35 17 12/31/2017 7 A Miami 7.45 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H NY Jets -6 0.671 1pm 2 9/17/2017 A Carolina 3.5 0.398 1pm 3 9/24/2017 H Denver -1 0.517 1pm 4 10/1/2017 A Atlanta 7.5 0.229 1pm 5 10/8/2017 A Cincinnati 3.5 0.398 1pm 7 10/22/2017 H Tampa Bay -1.5 0.534 1pm 8 10/29/2017 H Oakland 1.5 0.497 1pm 9 11/2/2017 A NY Jets -1.5 0.503 8:25pm 10 11/12/2017 H New Orleans -2 0.565 1pm 11 11/19/2017 A LA Chargers 2 0.435 4:05pm 12 11/26/2017 A Kansas City 6 0.329 1pm 13 12/3/2017 H New England 7 0.306 1pm 14 12/10/2017 H Indianapolis -1.5 0.534 1pm 15 12/17/2017 H Miami -1.5 0.534 1pm 16 12/24/2017 A New England 11.5 0.143 1pm 17 12/31/2017 A Miami 0.500 1pm 7.10 Good Host 3 straight games late in the season, including divisional games against NE and Miami Host Tampa Bay off bye week Host New Orleans off a Thursday night game (extra 3 days rest for Bills) Host Miami with Dolphins off Monday night game against NE (extra days rest for Bills) Bad Play 10 games against teams projected to finish above.500, including six in a row early in the season Host Oakland with Raiders off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for Oakland) Travel to Jets on a Thursday night Projected Wins Buffalo s projected win total is 6.65 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 7.10 games. 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A Baltimore 0 0 7 13 3 L L 2 H New York Jets 0 1 31 37 0 L L 3 H Arizona 1 1 33 18 5.5 W W 4 A New England 3 0 16 0 3.5 W W 5 A Los Angeles 3 1 30 19-2.5 W W 6 H San Francisco 1 4 45 16-7.5 W W 7 A Miami 2 4 25 28-2.5 L L 8 H New England 6 1 25 41 6.5 L L 9 A Seattle 4 2 25 31 6 L T 11 A Cincinnati 3 5 16 12 2.5 W W 12 H Jacksonville 2 8 28 21-8.5 W L 13 A Oakland 9 2 24 38 3 L L 14 H Pittsburgh 7 5 20 27 2 L L 15 H Cleveland 0 13 33 13-11 W W 16 H Miami 9 5 31 34-4.5 L L 17 A New York Jets 4 11 10 30-4 L L 5
Miami WK DATE HA OPPONENT 10 1 9/10/2017 H Tampa Bay 8.2 2 9/17/2017 7 A LA Chargers 7.65 3 9/24/2017 7 A NY Jets 3.8 4 10/1/2017 7 H New Orleans 7.9 5 10/8/2017 7 H Tennessee 8.75 6 10/15/2017 7 A Atlanta 9.55 7 10/22/2017 7 H NY Jets 3.8 8 10/26/2017 4 A Baltimore 8.7 9 11/5/2017 10 H Oakland 9.8 11/13/2017 8 A Carolina 9.2 11 BYE 12 11/26/2017 13 A New England 12.35 13 12/3/2017 7 H Denver 8.2 14 12/11/2017 8 H New England 12.35 15 12/17/2017 6 A Buffalo 6.65 16 12/24/2017 7 A Kansas City 9.1 17 12/31/2017 7 H Buffalo 6.65 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H Tampa Bay -1.5 0.534 1pm 2 9/17/2017 A LA Chargers 1 0.483 4:05pm 3 9/24/2017 A NY Jets -2 0.520 1pm 4 10/1/2017 H New Orleans -3 0.594 9:30am 5 10/8/2017 H Tennessee -3 0.594 1pm 6 10/15/2017 A Atlanta 6.5 0.358 1pm 7 10/22/2017 H NY Jets -8.5 0.809 1pm 8 10/26/2017 A Baltimore 3 0.405 8:25pm 9 11/5/2017 H Oakland -1 0.517 8:30pm 10 11/13/2017 A Carolina 3 0.405 8:30pm 12 11/26/2017 A New England 9 0.228 1pm 13 12/3/2017 H Denver -1 0.517 1pm 14 12/11/2017 H New England 4 0.324 8:30pm 15 12/17/2017 A Buffalo 1.5 0.466 1pm 16 12/24/2017 A Kansas City 4.5 0.346 1pm 17 12/31/2017 H Buffalo 0.500 1pm 7.60 Good Travel to LA with Chargers off Monday night game Host Oakland off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for Miami) Travel to New England off bye week Travel to Atlanta with Falcons off bye week Travel to Baltimore on Thursday night Bad Travel to Buffalo off Monday night game against New England Travel to Kansas City with Chiefs off Saturday game (extra days rest for KC) Ugly 10 games against teams projected to win 8 or more games this year, including 8 of 9 games in the middle of the season Projected Wins Miami s projected win total is 7.45 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 7.60 games. 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A Seattle 0 0 10 12 10.5 L W 2 A New England 1 0 24 31 6 L L 3 H Cleveland 0 2 30 24-10 W L 4 A Cincinnati 1 2 7 22 7.5 L L 5 H Tennessee 1 3 17 30-2.5 L L 6 H Pittsburgh 4 1 30 15 7.5 W W 7 H Buffalo 4 2 28 25 2.5 W W 9 H New York Jets 3 5 27 23-4 W T 10 A San Diego 4 5 31 24 4.5 W W 11 A Los Angeles 4 5 14 10-1 W W 12 H San Francisco 1 9 31 24-7 W T 13 A Baltimore 6 5 6 38 3.5 L L 14 H Arizona 5 6 26 23 2 W W 15 A New York Jets 4 9 34 13-2.5 W W 16 A Buffalo 7 7 34 31 4.5 W W 17 H New England 13 2 14 35 8 L L 18 A Pittsburgh 11 5 12 30 12 L L 6
New England WK DATE HA OPPONENT 8 1 9/7/2017 H Kansas City 9.1 2 9/17/2017 10 A New Orleans 7.9 3 9/24/2017 7 H Houston 8.5 4 10/1/2017 7 H Carolina 9.2 5 10/5/2017 4 A Tampa Bay 8.2 6 10/15/2017 10 A NY Jets 3.8 7 10/22/2017 7 H Atlanta 9.55 8 10/29/2017 7 H LA Chargers 7.65 9 BYE 11/12/2017 14 A Denver 8.2 11 11/19/2017 7 A Oakland Mexico 9.8 12 11/26/2017 7 H Miami 7.45 13 12/3/2017 7 A Buffalo 6.65 14 12/11/2017 8 A Miami 7.45 15 12/17/2017 6 A Pittsburgh 10.65 16 12/24/2017 7 H Buffalo 6.65 17 12/31/2017 7 H NY Jets 3.8 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A Arizona 0 0 23 21 9 W W 2 H Miami 0 1 31 24-6 W W 3 H Houston 2 0 27 0-1 W W 4 H Buffalo 1 2 0 16-3.5 L L 5 A Cleveland 0 4 33 13-10 W W 6 H Cincinnati 2 3 35 17-7.5 W W 7 A Pittsburgh 4 2 27 16-7.5 W W 8 A Buffalo 4 3 41 25-6.5 W W 10 H Seattle 5 2 24 31-7.5 L L 11 A San Francisco 1 8 30 17-12 W W 12 A New York Jets 3 7 22 17-9.5 W L 13 H Los Angeles 4 7 26 10-14 W W 14 H Baltimore 7 5 30 23-6 W W 15 A Denver 8 5 16 3-3 W W 16 H New York Jets 4 10 41 3-17 W W 17 A Miami 10 5 35 14-8 W W 19 H Houston 10 7 34 16-17 W W 20 H Pittsburgh 13 5 36 17-5.5 W W 21 N Atlanta 13 5 34 28-3 W W Good WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/7/2017 H Kansas City -7 0.756 8:30pm 2 9/17/2017 A New Orleans -4.5 0.638 1pm 3 9/24/2017 H Houston -9 0.772 1pm 4 10/1/2017 H Carolina -9 0.772 1pm 5 10/5/2017 A Tampa Bay -3 0.580 8:25pm 6 10/15/2017 A NY Jets -9.5 0.886 1pm 7 10/22/2017 H Atlanta -6.5 0.642 8:30pm 8 10/29/2017 H LA Chargers -12.5 0.825 1pm 10 11/12/2017 A Denver -3 0.580 8:30pm 11 11/19/2017 A Oakland -1.5 0.503 4:25pm 12 11/26/2017 H Miami -9 0.772 1pm 13 12/3/2017 A Buffalo -7 0.696 1pm 14 12/11/2017 A Miami -4 0.676 8:30pm 15 12/17/2017 A Pittsburgh -1.5 0.503 4:25pm 16 12/24/2017 H Buffalo -11.5 0.857 1pm 17 12/31/2017 H NY Jets 0.500 1pm 10.96 Face only 8 teams projected to finish above.500 Only face 1 team projected to finish above.500 in last 6 games Travel to NO off Thursday game with Saints off Monday night game (extra 4 days rest for NE) Travel to Jets off Thursday game Travel to Denver off bye week Face Oakland on a neutral site in Mexico but face Oakland off their bye week Play 3 straight road games in a row late in the season finishing at Pittsburgh and off Monday night game Host Houston with Texans off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for Houston) Travel to Tampa Bay on a Thursday night Host Miami off their bye week Bad Projected Wins New England projected win total is 12.35 but based on projected lines they are calculated to win 10.96 games. 7
NY Jets WK DATE HA OPPONENT 8 1 9/10/2017 A Buffalo 6.65 2 9/17/2017 7 A Oakland 9.8 3 9/24/2017 7 H Miami 7.45 4 10/1/2017 7 H Jacksonville 6.75 5 10/8/2017 7 A Cleveland 4.45 6 10/15/2017 7 H New England 12.35 7 10/22/2017 7 A Miami 7.45 8 10/29/2017 7 H Atlanta 9.55 9 11/2/2017 4 H Buffalo 6.65 11/12/2017 10 A Tampa Bay 8.2 11 BYE 12 11/26/2017 14 H Carolina 9.2 13 12/3/2017 7 H Kansas City 9.1 14 12/10/2017 7 A Denver 8.2 15 12/17/2017 7 A New Orleans 7.9 16 12/24/2017 7 H LA Chargers 7.65 17 12/31/2017 7 A New England 12.35 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 A Buffalo 6 0.329 1pm 2 9/17/2017 A Oakland 8.5 0.191 4:05pm 3 9/24/2017 H Miami 2 0.480 1pm 4 10/1/2017 H Jacksonville -1 0.517 1pm 5 10/8/2017 A Cleveland 0 0.456 1pm 6 10/15/2017 H New England 9.5 0.114 1pm 7 10/22/2017 A Miami 8.5 0.191 1pm 8 10/29/2017 H Atlanta 7 0.306 1pm 9 11/2/2017 H Buffalo 1.5 0.497 8:25pm 10 11/12/2017 A Tampa Bay 8 0.235 1pm 12 11/26/2017 H Carolina 3 0.420 1pm 13 12/3/2017 H Kansas City 4.5 0.362 1pm 14 12/10/2017 A Denver 9 0.228 4:05pm 15 12/17/2017 A New Orleans 6.5 0.358 1pm 16 12/24/2017 H LA Chargers 0 0.541 1pm 17 12/31/2017 A New England 0.500 1pm 5.72 Good Only face 8 teams projected to finish above.500 Host Buffalo on a Thursday night Travel to Tampa Bay off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for Jets) Bad Host New England with Pats off Thursday game Travel to New Orleans with Saints off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) Host Chargers with LA off Saturday game (extra days rest for LA) Projected Wins NY s projected win total is 3.8 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 5.72 games. 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H Cincinnati 0 0 22 23 1 L T 2 A Buffalo 0 1 37 31 0 W W 3 A Kansas City 1 1 3 24 3 L L 4 H Seattle 2 1 17 27 0 L L 5 A Pittsburgh 3 1 13 31 9.5 L L 6 A Arizona 2 3 3 28 7 L L 7 H Baltimore 3 3 24 16-2 W W 8 A Cleveland 0 7 31 28-2.5 W W 9 A Miami 3 4 23 27 4 L T 10 H Los Angeles 3 5 6 9 1 L L 12 H New England 8 2 17 22 9.5 L W 13 H Indianapolis 5 6 10 41-1 L L 14 A San Francisco 1 11 23 17 3 W W 15 H Miami 8 5 13 34 2.5 L L 16 A New England 12 2 3 41 17 L L 17 H Buffalo 7 8 30 10 4 W W 8