EXPECTATIONS FOR MARKETS AND TRADE 2017 - INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND FISHERIES (CONXEMAR-FAO) 2 October 2017 Stefania Vannuccini Stefania.Vannuccini@fao.org
Increasing number of cronically undernourished people: 815 million (11%)
Prevalence of undernourishment highest in Africa, but highest number in Asia
Food security and nutrition status Millions of children suffering nutrition deficiency Billions of obese or overweight people Vitamin A deficiency Causes blindness. 250 million preschool children affected. Iron deficiency Anaemia contributes to 20% of all maternal deaths. 40% of preschool children anaemic in developing countries. Iodine deficiency Impairing cognitive development in children 54 countries still iodine-deficient Source: WHO Trend Worldwide obesity has nearly doubled since 1980. Adults (aged 20 or older) More than 1.4 billion (35% of total) overweight in 2008 Over 200 million men and nearly 300 million women (11 % of total) obese in 2008. Children (under the age of 5) More than 40 million children overweight or obese in 2012. Source: WHO
Fish and Nutrition
Fish and Nutrition Fish provides many valuable nutrients protein long-chain omega-3 fatty acids (Eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) fat-soluble vitamins minerals like iron, calcium, iodine, zinc & selenium With numerous health benefits (known) reduced risk of cardiac death, aids neurodevelopment in unborn infants A daily intake of 250 mg of EPA and DHA per adult gives optimal protection against coronary heart disease related. At least eat fish twice a week! (probable) reduced risk of stroke, (possible) reduced risk of depression Which are important in developing countries fish provides nutrients where they are most needed cheap small pelagics growing component of developing country diets
Fish food supply
Fish contribution to human nutrition Latin America & the Caribbean Northern America Oceania Europe Africa Asia LIFDCs World 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Per capita fish consumption (kg) Share of fish in total animal proteins (%)
Fish production & utilization Fish production (million tonnes live weight) Per capita fish supply (kg) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 Non-food uses Aquaculture for human consumption Capture for human consumption Per capita food fish supply Excluding aquatic plants. 2016/2017: estimate/forecast
Fish food supply by species groups Million tonnes (live weight equivalent) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Freshwater and diadromous fish Demersal fish Crustaceans Cephalopods Pelagic fish Molluscs, excl. cephalopods Marine fish, other Aquatic animals, others
Status of stocks: 2013 Percentage of stocks assessed 31.4% of overfished stocks 68.6%of stocks fished within biologically sustainable levels: 58.1% fully fished 10.5% underfished But signs of recovery due to improved management of some of the stocks
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Joint OECD-FAO report (13 th ) Country collaborators Aglink-COSIMO, partial equilibrium model 10 year horizon Major temperate commodities Global coverage Special theme: Southeast Asia http://www.agri-outlook.org/
200 Total fish production Million tonnes 160 120 Aquaculture 80 40 Capture 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 Excluding aquatic plants.
Surpass of aquaculture (2013 and 2021) Million tonnes 120 100 Total capture 80 Capture for food 60 40 Aquaculture 20 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026 Excluding aquatic plants.
Per capita fish consumption Aquaculture for human consumption Capture for human consumption 2006 2026 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Per capita fish consumption Kg (lw) 40 30 20 10 0 World Developing countries Developed countries Africa Latin America North America Europe Asia Oceania 2014-16 2026 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Per capita consumption of fish and meat in 2026 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Share of production being traded million tonnes live weight 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Production Exports 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Excluding aquatic plants. 2016/2017: estimate/forecast
Exports of fish and fishery products US$ billion 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Excluding aquatic plants. 2016/2017: estimate/forecast
World fishery trade will grow at a lower rate Million tonnes(lw) 60 50 Trend 40 30 Imports excluding intra EU 20 10 0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
Growth in trade volumes OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026
FAO Fish Price Index (2002-2004= 100) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 TOTAL AQUACULTURE CAPTURE 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Trade of fish and fishery products South America 10% Exports Europe 36% North America 17% Imports Asia 33% North America 8% Africa 4% Oceania 2% Central America & Caribbean 2% Asia 38% Africa 4% South America 2% Oceania 2% Central America & Caribbean 1% Europe 41%
Fish production million tonnes live weight 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1955 1975 1995 2015 1955 1975 1995 2015 1955 1975 1995 2015 1955 1975 1995 2015 1955 1975 1995 2015 1955 1975 1995 2015 Africa Asia Europe Latin America North America Oceania Inland fisheries Marine capture Aquaculture
Fish production million tonnes live weight 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1955 1975 1995 2015 1955 1975 1995 2015 1955 1975 1995 2015 1955 1975 1995 2015 1955 1975 1995 2015 1955 1975 1995 2015 Africa Asia, excluding China + Oceania China Europe Latin America North America Inland fisheries Marine capture Aquaculture
Major areas 02 03 Million tonnes 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950 1953 1956 1959 01 05 Fish production Asia, inland waters 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 04 2004 2007 2010 2013 06 Million tonnes 25 20 15 10 5 Fish production - Pacific, Northwest, area 61 Share in 2015 Area Total Capture Aquaculture 04 31.3 8.2 59.3 61 23.9 23.8 24.0 71 9.4 13.6 4.4 27 6.7 9.9 2.9 87 5.4 8.3 1.9 57 4.1 6.9 0.7 51 3.1 5.0 0.7 01 Capture2.7 Aquaculture 3.1 2.3 34 2.6 4.7 0.0 67 2.0 3.4 0.2 41 1.5 2.6 0.1 21 1.2 2.0 0.2 77 1.1 1.8 0.3 47 1.0 1.8 0.0 37 1.0 1.4 0.6 31 0.9 1.5 0.2 03 0.6 0.4 0.9 05 0.5 0.5 0.6 81 0.4 0.6 0.2 02 0.4 0.2 0.5 48 0.1 0.2-18 0.0 0.0-58 0.0 0.0-88 0.0 0.0-06 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Share of imports in food fish consumption Percentage 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2014-16 2026 Africa Asia Europe Latin America & Caribbean North America Oceania
Africa: imports 2013-2015 Value 2% 35% 27% 6% 28% 1%
Regions more dependent on imports 7% 8% 62% 8% 15% 1% 23% 17% 8% 1% 49% 1% 4% 9% 68% 2% 4% 13%
Regions less dependent on imports 3% 11% 26% 2% 58% 1% 13% 18% 3% 51% 11% 4%
Key producers and traders Developing countries: 74% capture 95% aquaculture volume
Uncertainties Capture fisheries: Natural productivity of fish stocks and ecosystems Climate change, incl. El Niño phenomenon Aquaculture: Areas and water Fish seeds and feeds Diseases Technology, financial resources, regulations Trade and consumption Trade policies, market access, trade agreements, food safety and traceability 32
Climate change (Intergovernamental Panel Climate Change)
Specific impacts of CC on food security
Impact of CC on fisheries and aquaculture
Challenges to fishing communities
Impacts of CC on consumption and trade Effects on availability and circulation of fish goods Patterns and livelihood of producers and exporters Change in species vs nutritional habits Impact on fish prices Impact on food security
Resilience
THANK YOU Stefania.Vannuccini@fao.org