University of Texas at El Paso DigitalCommons@UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Economics and Finance Department 2-2019 Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 2 Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. University of Texas at El Paso, tomf@utep.edu Aaron Nazarian University of Texas at El Paso, adnazarian@miners.utep.edu Steven L. Fullerton University of Texas at El Paso, slfullerton@miners.utep.edu Sergio Olivas University of Texas at El Paso, solivas11@miners.utep.edu Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.utep.edu/border_region Part of the Regional Economics Commons Recommended Citation Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr.; Nazarian, Aaron; Fullerton, Steven L.; and Olivas, Sergio, "Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 2" (2019). Border Region Modeling Project. 73. https://digitalcommons.utep.edu/border_region/73 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Economics and Finance Department at DigitalCommons@UTEP. It has been accepted for inclusion in Border Region Modeling Project by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UTEP. For more information, please contact lweber@utep.edu.
February 2019 Border Region Modeling Project Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. Aaron Nazarian Steven L. Fullerton Sergio Olivas Jr. Department of Economics & Finance College of Business Administration University of Texas at El Paso Mailing Address Border Region Modeling Project - CBA 236 UTEP Department of Economics & Finance 500 West University Avenue El Paso, TX 79968-0543 Physical Address College of Business Administration, Room 325 University of Texas at El Paso Email tomf@utep.edu adnazarian@miners.utep.edu slfullerton@miners.utep.edu solivas11@miners.utep.edu Telephone 915-747-7747 915-747-7775 Fax 915-747-6282 Website http://academics.utep.edu/border Border Commerce & Economics Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 2 Minor Data Mysteries Although regional economic conditions remain fairly good, statistical uncertainty is in the air due to data delays resulting from the recent federal government shutdown. The data mystery is less concerning for the El Paso metropolitan economy because the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas business cycle index rose, again, in December. In fact, all of the 2018 BCI monthly values exceeded the corresponding values from 2017. El Paso County enrollments in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are not updated this month due to data interruptions associated with the shutdown. Once updated enrollment estimates become available, additional downward movement is likely as a consequence of ongoing steady economic growth in the local economy. The El Paso housing market opened 2019 in good shape. The January median price of $149,950 was approximately 2.4 percent higher than the corresponding figure for January 2018. At 3.9, the months of housing inventory for El Paso remained below 4.0 for a third consecutive month. Housing inventory has tightened to a range not observed since 2006. Regular gasoline prices fell by 20 cents to $1.89 per gallon in January 2019, partly due to oil price weakness during the government closure. Prices have rebounded somewhat in recent weeks, but consumers enjoyed the respite while it lasted. In Doña Ana County, unemployment remained below year ago levels for the entirety of 2018. Better labor market conditions helped the number of Las Cruces area SNAP cases to remain below 27,500 throughout 2018. UTEP Border Region Modeling Project econometric forecast analysis indicates that additional labor market strengthening is likely in 2019, boding well for income performance and helping further ease the demand for social safety net services in the Mesilla Valley. The peso per dollar nominal exchange continued to fluctuate minimally around 19.50 in the last quarter of 2018. Barring any USMCA policy disasters, the exchange rate may continue trade near current levels in 2019. In real terms, the peso remains at least somewhat undervalued against the dollar. The latter point is underscored regionally by a persistent 40 percent gap between the exchange rate and the Borderplex restaurant price ratio. Northbound international bridge personal vehicle flows fell below 1.0 million during both of the last two months in 2018. The decline began in August, probably in reaction to increased homicides and violence related to illegal narcotics smuggling activities. In spite of the latter, northbound pedestrian traffic volumes rose above year ago levels for nearly every month of 2018. Cross border cargo truck traffic grew by 4.1 percent in 2018. That development was driven by increased merchandise trade. During the first 11 months of 2018, total trade through the El Paso Customs District expanded to more than $103 million. After adjusting for inflation, real trade increased by 5.7 percent during that period in this district. Export oriented manufacturing employment in Ciudad Juárez stood at 277,247 in November 2018, a 0.5 percent increase relative to the same month in 2017. The Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index was 4.7 percentage points higher, on average, in 2018 than in 2017. The Chihuahua state retail activity index rose in both October and November and seems poised for growth in 2019.
Borderplex Business Barometer Border Region Modeling Project Department of Economics & Finance University of Texas at El Paso
Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso 240 2017 2018 Seasonally Adjusted Index (October 1980 = 100) 235 230 225 220 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
240 Metro Business-Cycle Index for El Paso Seasonally Adjusted Index (October 1980 = 100) 230 220 210 200 190 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
El Paso Household Economic Stress Index 6 2017 2018 5 Index 4 3 2 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
20 El Paso Household Economic Stress Index 15 10 5 Index 0-5 -10-15 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
El Paso County Unemployment Rate 2017 2018 6 5 4 3 Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11 El Paso County Unemployment Rate 10 Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment 2017 2018 190,000 185,000 Number of SNAP Recipients 180,000 175,000 170,000 165,000 160,000 Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission
200,000 El Paso County SNAP (Food Stamp) Enrollment 180,000 Number of SNAP Recipients 160,000 140,000 120,000 Starting in 2006 September, 2007 2008 2014, the 2009 number 2010 of 2011 SNAP 2012 recipients 2013 is 2014 recorded 2015 for the 2016 end 2017 of each 2018 month. 2019 Source: Texas Health and Human Services Commission
El Paso Median Housing Prices $160,000 2017 2018 $155,000 Nominal Price $150,000 $145,000 $140,000 $135,000 Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
$160,000 El Paso Median Housing Prices $150,000 Nominal Price $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso 6.0 2017 2018 5.5 5.0 Months 4.5 4.0 3.5 Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
14 Months of Housing Inventory for El Paso 12 10 Months 8 6 4 2 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
El Paso Gasoline Prices 2017 2018 $3.50 Nominal Price (Dollars per Gallon) $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 Source: GasBuddy.com
$5.00 El Paso Gasoline Prices Nominal Price (Dollars per Gallon) $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: GasBuddy.com
Doña Ana County Unemployment Rate 8.0 2017 2018 Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
9 Doña Ana County Unemployment Rate 8 Unemployment Rate (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 7 6 5 4 3 2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases 35,000 2017 2018 Number of SNAP Cases 32,000 29,000 26,000 Source: New Mexico Human Services Department
40,000 Las Cruces Area SNAP (Food Stamp) Cases Number of SNAP Cases 30,000 20,000 10,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: New Mexico Human Services Department
Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate 22 2017 Price Ratio 2017 Exch. Rate 2018 Price Ratio 2018 Exch. Rate 20 18 Pesos per Dollar 16 14 12 10 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico
Restaurant Price Ratio and Exchange Rate Price Ratio Exchange Rate 24 20 Pesos per Dollar 16 12 8 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project and Banco de Mexico
Real Peso-per-Dollar Exchange Rate Index 2017 2018 150 Index (March 1997 = 100) 140 130 120 110 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
150 Real Peso-per-Dollar Exchange Rate Index 130 Index (March 1997 = 100) 110 90 70 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: UTEP Border Region Modeling Project
Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,300,000 2017 2018 1,200,000 Number of Vehicles 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Personal Vehicle International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 Number of Vehicles 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 800,000 2017 2018 700,000 Number of Pedestrians 600,000 500,000 400,000 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
900,000 Pedestrian International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 800,000 Number of Pedestrians 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso 80,000 2017 2018 Number of Cargo Trucks 70,000 60,000 50,000 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
90,000 Cargo Truck International Bridge Crossings to El Paso Number of Cargo Trucks 70,000 50,000 30,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Total Trade (Exports + Imports) in Millions of Nominal Dollars $11,000 $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District 2017 2018 $6,000 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission
$12,000 Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District Total Trade (Exports + Imports) in Millions of Nominal Dollars $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission
Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District $5,500 2017 2018 Total Trade in Millions of 1982 Dollars $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics
$6,000 Real Total Trade through the El Paso Customs District Total Trade in Millions of 1982 Dollars $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juárez 290,000 2017 2018 280,000 Number of Jobs 270,000 260,000 250,000 240,000 Source: INEGI
290,000 Export-Oriented Manufacturing Employment in Ciudad Juárez 260,000 Number of Jobs 230,000 200,000 170,000 140,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: INEGI
Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index 70 2017 2018 65 Index (Range: 0-100) 60 55 50 45 40 Source: Banco de México
70 Northern Mexico Manufacturing Orders Index 60 Index (Range: 0-100) 50 40 30 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Banco de México
Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua 130 2017 2018 Index (2008=100) 120 110 100 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Source: INEGI
140 Quarterly Indicator of Economic Activity for the State of Chihuahua 120 Index (2008 = 100) 100 80 60 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: INEGI
Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua 1,600,000 2017 2018 Thousands of June 2012 Pesos 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 Source: INEGI
2,000,000 Total Value of Construction in the State of Chihuahua 1,750,000 Thousands of June 2012 Pesos 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000,000 750,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: INEGI
Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua 225.00 2017 2018 200.00 Index (2008 = 100) 175.00 150.00 125.00 100.00 Source: INEGI
Real Retail Activity Index for the State of Chihuahua 225.00 200.00 175.00 Index (2008=100) 150.00 125.00 100.00 75.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: INEGI
University of Texas at El Paso Diana Natalicio, President John Wiebe, Acting Provost Roberto Osegueda, Vice President for Research UTEP College of Business Administration Stephen Crites, Interim Dean Fernando Jiménez, Associate Dean Erik Devos, Associate Dean Tim Roth, Templeton Professor of Banking & Economics UTEP Border Region Modeling Project Corporate and Institutional Sponsors: El Paso Water Hunt Communities UTEP College of Business Administration UTEP Department of Economics & Finance UTEP Hunt Institute for Global Competitiveness UTEP Center for the Study of Western Hemispheric Trade Borderplex Business Barometer is a monthly publication of the Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP), a research unit within the Department of Economics & Finance at the College of Business Administration of The University of Texas at El Paso. BRMP information is available at: http://academics.utep.edu/border. For additional information, contact the Border Region Modeling Project CBA 236, UTEP Department of Economics & Finance, 500 West University Avenue, El Paso, TX 79968 0543, USA, (915) 747 7775.