STATE OF THE COAST 2016 Coastal Frontiers Corporation June 1, 2017 Shoreline Preservation Committee
1. Background OVERVIEW 2. Monitoring Program 3. Results 2015-16 El Niño Post-RBSP II Post-RBSP I 4. Conclusions
STUDY AREA Oceanside Carlsbad Oceanside Cell Encinitas Solana Beach Del Mar Mission Beach Cell La Jolla Mission Beach Silver Strand Cell Imperial Beach
Cumulative Nourishment Volume (cy) NOURISHMENT HISTORY (1994-2016) 6,000,000 5,000,000 Oceanside Cell 4,000,000 3,000,000 RBSP I RBSP II 2,000,000 1,000,000 Silver Strand Cell Mission Beach Cell 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Monitoring Year
MONITORING PROGRAM History Established in 1996 Adaptive and Sustainable Objectives Measure Changes in Shorezone Monitor RBSP Beach Fills Components Beaches Lagoon Entrances Offshore Borrow Sites
Beach Monitoring Semi-Annual Profile Surveys 60 Shore-Perpendicular Transects Fall and Spring Surveys Backbeach to Beyond Depth of Closure
RESULTS Analysis Periods 2015-16 El El Niño Post-RBSP II (2011-2016) Post-RBSP I (2000-2016) Regions Littoral Cells Sub-Reaches Beach Parameters Beach Width Shorezone Volume
2015-16 El Niño Wave Climate Summary Pre-El Niño Beach Condition Beach Changes
Wave Energy Index 2015-16 El Niño: Wave Energy 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Monitoring Year
Reach Pre-El Niño Beach Widths Ave. Beach Width (ft) Fall 1997 Fall 2015 Ave. Beach Width Change (ft) Oceanside 119 139 +20 North Carlsbad 104 187 +83 South Carlsbad 125 102-23 Leucadia/Encinitas 99 217 +118 Cardiff 72 282 +210 Solana Beach 96 209 +113 Del Mar 151 152 +1 La Jolla 157 210 +53 Mission Beach 222 287 +65 Imperial Beach 120 178 +58
Winter Seasonal Beach Width Changes Reach Max Ave. 2016 (ft) (ft) (ft) Severity Oceanside -50-16 -46 2 of 19 North Carlsbad -16 4-5 5 of 19 South Carlsbad -49-17 -35 3 of 19 Leucadia/Encinitas -74-33 -51 4 of 14 * Cardiff -70-31 -70 1 of 12 * Solana Beach -63-25 -18 13 of 19 Del Mar -90-47 -85 2 of 19 La Jolla -98-47 -94 2 of 19 Mission Beach -114-46 -114 1 of 19 Imperial Beach -106-60 -106 1 of 19 * 1997-98 El Niño season not included
Reach Summer Recovery Winter Loss (ft) Summer Recovery (ft) % Recovery Oceanside -46 12 26% North Carlsbad -5-7 - South Carlsbad -35 10 29% Leucadia/Encinitas -51 23 45% Cardiff -70 32 46% Solana Beach -18 6 33% Del Mar -85 45 53% La Jolla -94 41 44% Mission Beach -114 46 40% Imperial Beach -106 81 76%
2016 Summary Region Wide Winter Beach Width Losses Incomplete Summer Beach Width Recovery Modest Shorezone Volume Losses
Post-RBSP II Beach Changes Receiver Sites Initial post-nourishment gains Subsequent placement site losses and downcoast gains Regional Gains in Silver Strand Cell Back to pre-nourishment condition on Oceanside Cell Sub-Reaches Sustained (4+ yrs) shoreline advance in 5 of 9 reaches Sustained (4+ yrs) volume gains in 5 of 9 reaches
Reach Beach Width Persistence Long-Term Beach Width Gains (5 years) Fall 2016 Beach Width Change Imperial Beach 5 years 60 ft North Carlsbad 5 years 27 ft Transient Beach Width Gains (2 to 4 years) Solana Beach 4 years 39 ft Cardiff 4 years 6 ft Oceanside 4 years -9 ft La Jolla 3 years -1 ft Negligible Beach Width Gains (1 year or less) South Carlsbad 1 year -5 ft Del Mar < 1 year -16 ft Leucadia/Encinitas < 1 year -15 ft
Reach Shorezone Vol. Persistence Fall 2016 SZ Vol. Change Long-Term Shorezone Volume Gains (5 years) Imperial Beach 5 years 45 cy/ft La Jolla 5 years 12 cy/ft North Carlsbad 5 years 24 cy/ft Transient Shorezone Volume Gains (2 to 4 years) Solana Beach 4 years 29 cy/ft Cardiff 4 years -15 cy/ft Del Mar 3 years 19 cy/ft Negligible Shorezone Volume Gains (1 year or less) Oceanside 1 year -28 cy/ft Leucadia/Encinitas < 1 year -16 cy/ft South Carlsbad < 1 year -12 cy/ft
Long-Term Beach Changes (Post-RBSP I) Nourishment (2001-2016) Oceanside Cell: 3 mm cy Mission Beach Cell: 601k cy Silver Strand Cell: 949k cy Shoreline and Shorezone Vol. Changes Oceanside Cell: Shoreline Losses / Vol. Gains Mission Beach Cell: Shoreline Losses / Vol. Gains Silver Strand Cell: Shoreline and Volume Losses
CONCLUSIONS 1. El Niño Less energetic than 1997-98 Beaches better prepared in 2015-16 than 1997-98 Severe erosion compared to past winter seasons Incomplete Summer Recovery
CONCLUSIONS 2. Beach Condition Post-RBSP II Initial gains at receiver sites followed by Year 1 losses Benefits to Downcoast Beaches Gains in SSLC; Back to pre-nourishment condition in OSLC 4+ years sustained gains in 5 of 9 sub-reaches Long-term (Post-RBSP I) OSLC - Beach width loss; volume gains MBLC - Beach width loss; volume gains SSLC - Beach width at pre-rbsp I levels; volumes loss
CONCLUSIONS 3. Nourishment RBSP I and II Contributed to improved Pre-El Niño Beach Condition relative to 1997 Nourishment Deficit in Silver Strand and Oceanside Cells SSLC: -14,000 cy/yr OSLC: -208,000 cy/yr
Average Shorezone Volume Change (cy/ft) Average MSL Shoreline Change (ft) Oceanside Cell Changes: Fall 2000 to Fall 2016 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Average Shorezone Volume Change (cy/ft) Average MSL Shoreline Change (ft) Mission Beach Cell Changes: Fall 2000 to Fall 2015 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Average Shorezone Volume Change (cy/ft) Average MSL Shoreline Change (ft) Silver Strand Cell Changes: Fall 2000 to Fall 2016 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 -40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017