NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33 9/18/2016 7 A Minnesota Vikings 9.55 9/25/2016 7 H Detroit Lions 7.24 BYE 10/9/2016 14 H New York Giants 8.1 10/16/2016 7 H Dallas Cowboys 9.2 10/20/2016 4 H Chicago Bears 7.26 10/30/2016 10 A Atlanta Falcons 7.36 11/6/2016 7 H Indianapolis Colts 8.62 11/13/2016 7 A Tennessee Titans 6.19 11/20/2016 7 A Washington Redskins 7.09 11/28/2016 8 A Philadelphia Eagles 6.78 12/4/2016 6 H Houston Texans 8.5 12/11/2016 7 H Seattle Seahawks 10.59 12/18/2016 7 A Chicago Bears 7.26 12/24/2016 6 H Minnesota Vikings 9.55 1/1/2017 8 A Detroit Lions 7.24 # of Opponents with 8 or more projected wins Teams with 8 or more proj. wins Division game Three home games in a row O/U projected wins for the opponent Days between games Three or more road games in a row 2
PROJECTED LINE SAMPLE WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % 1 9/11/2016 H New England -5.5 0.679 5:30 2 9/18/2016 H Tampa Bay -9 0.789 1:05 3 9/25/2016 A Buffalo -2.5 0.512 10:00 AM 4 10/2/2016 H Los Angeles -7 0.754 1:25 5 10/6/2016 A San Francisco -6 0.733 5:25 6 10/17/2016 H NY Jets -4 0.668 5:30 7 10/23/2016 H Seattle -1 0.509 5:30 8 10/30/2016 A Carolina 3.5 0.402 1:25 10 11/13/2016 H San Francisco -10.5 0.792 2:25 11 11/20/2016 A Minnesota 1.5 0.476 11:00 AM 12 11/27/2016 A Atlanta -2.5 0.512 11:00 AM 13 12/4/2016 H Washington -6.5 0.634 2:25 14 12/11/2016 A Miami -3 0.583 11:00 AM 15 12/18/2016 H New Orleans -9 0.789 2:05 16 12/24/2016 A Seattle 3.5 0.402 2:25 17 1/1/2017 A Los Angeles 0.500 2:25 For week 17 I gave each team a 50% chance of winning their game seeing lines can be very different in week 17 based on motivation the last week of the season. Projected lines from CG Technologies Las Vegas SU Win probability based on past performance for these lines 1983-2015 Start time for team (EST) Projected wins 9.734 3
AFC NORTH SCHEDULE Pythagorean Theorem The Pythagorean theorem is a formula that calculates a team s points scored and allowed into an expected winning percentage. Based on this formula for the 2016 season, Baltimore and Cleveland under achieved by a little over one win each last year. Based on this formula there is a chance the Ravens and Browns will do better but the season win numbers for Baltimore are reflecting that. To a lesser degree they are for Cleveland as well. Obviously offseason moves, injuries, etc will also play into this seasons wins and losses. Pythagorean Theorem 2016 SU Margin 2016 Actual Record 2016 Adjusted Record Difference Close Games <=7 pts Team W L T W L Wins Losses Pittsburgh 11 5 0 9.9 6.1 1.1 5 2 Baltimore 8 8 0 8.6 7.4-0.6 6 5 Cincinnati 6 9 1 8.3 7.7-2.3 2 5 Cleveland 1 15 0 3.5 12.5-2.5 1 5 In addition to under achieving by more than one win last year the Ravens and Browns also were unlucky in close games going 5-7 & 1-5 respectively in close games. If those records reverse themselves this year, the two teams at the bottom last year could be better this year. The real question for someone like Cleveland is can they find a way to finally win close games given the poor history of this franchise. TEAM PROJ WINS TOTAL OPP WINS Schedule Rank PROJ WINS BASED ON PRED LINES Pittsburgh Steelers 10.65 128.65 22 9.54 Baltimore Ravens 8.7 128.35 24 8.34 Cincinnati Bengals 8.35 131.05 13 8.05 Cleveland Browns 4.45 131.05 13 4.93 Update: I will update all numbers shortly and post on the website. The table to the left shows projected wins as set by the odds makers for 2017. The expected win total is an average from the over and under lines for each team, factoring in the extra juice typically applied to these lines. Cincinnati s projected over under win total is 9.39 wins. When factoring in all of their opponents projected win totals, they add up to 133.86 wins and rank as the 5th hardest schedule. Cleveland has the 5th toughest schedule as well. Pittsburgh and the Ravens are just the opposite with the 30th and 23rd toughest schedules based on projected wins by the odds makers. In other words they have very easy schedules. Based on projected lines for all games we can develop a projected win pct based on those lines. Cincinnati is only projected to win 9.05 wins vs their 9.39 win projection. Baltimore has been over valued according to these numbers by about.70 wins, while Cleveland may be a little under valued, believe it or not. 4
Baltimore WK DATE HA OPPONENT 10 1 9/10/2017 A Cincinnati 8.35 2 9/17/2017 7 H Cleveland 4.45 3 9/24/2017 7 A Jacksonville London 6.75 4 10/1/2017 7 H Pittsburgh 10.65 5 10/8/2017 7 A Oakland 9.8 6 10/15/2017 7 H Chicago 5.15 7 10/22/2017 7 A Minnesota 8.35 10/26/2017 4 H Miami 7.45 9 11/5/2017 10 A Tennessee 8.75 10 BYE 11 11/19/2017 14 A Green Bay 10.25 12 11/27/2017 8 H Houston 8.5 13 12/3/2017 6 H Detroit 7.9 14 12/10/2017 7 A Pittsburgh 10.65 15 12/17/2017 7 A Cleveland 4.45 16 12/23/2017 6 H Indianapolis 8.55 17 12/31/2017 8 H Cincinnati 8.35 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 A Cincinnati 1 0.483 1pm 2 9/17/2017 H Cleveland -9.5 0.760 1pm 3 9/24/2017 A Jacksonville -1.5 0.503 9:30am 4 10/1/2017 H Pittsburgh 1.5 0.497 1pm 5 10/8/2017 A Oakland 4.5 0.346 4:05pm 6 10/15/2017 H Chicago -7 0.756 1pm 7 10/22/2017 A Minnesota 3.5 0.398 1pm 8 10/26/2017 H Miami -3 0.594 8:25pm 9 11/5/2017 A Tennessee 2.5 0.466 1pm 11 11/19/2017 A Green Bay 7 0.244 1pm 12 11/27/2017 H Houston -3 0.594 8:30pm 13 12/3/2017 H Detroit -3 0.594 1pm 14 12/10/2017 A Pittsburgh 6 0.329 8:30pm 15 12/17/2017 A Cleveland -4 0.676 1pm 16 12/23/2017 H Indianapolis -3 0.594 4:30pm 17 12/31/2017 H Cincinnati 0.500 1pm 8.34 Good Play Jacksonville in London rather than Jacksonville Face Chicago with Bears off Monday night game Face Miami at home on Thursday night Travel to GB off bye week Travel to Pittsburgh with Steelers off Monday night game against Cincinnati Face Cincinnati off Saturday game extra days rest for Balt No bye week after London game Just 1-4 ats as a road dog last year Bad Face 10 teams projected to win more than 8 games this year Travel to Tennessee off Thursday night game but Titans off bye week Face Lions off Monday night game and Lions off Thursday game (extra 4 days rest for Det) Face Indy on Saturday with Colts off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H Buffalo 0 0 13 7-3 W W 2 A Cleveland 0 1 25 20-4.5 W W 3 A Jacksonville 0 2 19 17-2 W T 4 H Oakland 2 1 27 28-3.5 L L 5 H Washington 2 2 10 16-4 L L 6 A NY Giants 2 3 23 27 3.5 L L 7 A New York Jets 1 5 16 24 2 L L 9 H Pittsburgh 4 3 21 14 3 W W 10 H Cleveland 0 9 28 7-7.5 W W 11 A Dallas 8 1 17 27 7 L L 12 H Cincinnati 3 6 19 14-3.5 W W 13 H Miami 7 4 38 6-3.5 W W 14 A New England 10 2 23 30 6 L L 15 H Philadelphia 5 8 27 26-5 W L 16 A Pittsburgh 9 5 27 31 5.5 L W 17 A Cincinnati 5 9 10 27-2.5 L L Projected Wins Baltimore projected win total is 8.70 but based on projected lines they are calculated to win 8.34 games. 5
Cincinnati WK DATE HA OPPONENT 10 1 9/10/2017 H Baltimore 8.7 2 9/14/2017 4 H Houston 8.5 3 9/24/2017 10 A Green Bay 10.25 4 10/1/2017 7 A Cleveland 4.45 5 10/8/2017 7 H Buffalo 6.65 6 BYE 7 10/22/2017 14 A Pittsburgh 10.65 10/29/2017 7 H Indianapolis 8.55 9 11/5/2017 7 A Jacksonville 6.75 10 11/12/2017 7 A Tennessee 8.75 11 11/19/2017 7 A Denver 8.2 12 11/26/2017 7 H Cleveland 4.45 13 12/4/2017 8 H Pittsburgh 10.65 14 12/10/2017 6 H Chicago 5.15 15 12/17/2017 7 A Minnesota 8.35 16 12/24/2017 7 H Detroit 7.9 17 12/31/2017 7 A Baltimore 8.7 Play 3 straight home games after 3 straight road games Host Houston on Thursday night 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A New York Jets 0 0 23 22-1 W T 2 A Pittsburgh 1 0 16 24 3 L L 3 H Denver 2 0 17 29-3.5 L L 4 H Miami 1 2 22 7-7.5 W W 5 A Dallas 3 1 14 28-2.5 L L 6 A New England 4 1 17 35 7.5 L L 7 H Cleveland 0 6 31 17-12 W W 8 H Washington 4 3 27 27-3 T L 10 A New York Giants 5 3 20 21 0 L L 11 H Buffalo 4 5 12 16-2.5 L L 12 A Baltimore 5 5 14 19 3.5 L L 13 H Philadelphia 5 6 32 14-1.5 W W 14 A Cleveland 0 12 23 10-5 W W 15 H Pittsburgh 8 5 20 24 3 L L 16 A Houston 8 6 10 12 3 L W 17 H Baltimore 8 7 27 10 2.5 W W Good WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H Baltimore -1 0.517 1pm 2 9/14/2017 H Houston -2 0.565 8:25pm 3 9/24/2017 A Green Bay 7 0.244 4:25pm 4 10/1/2017 A Cleveland -3.5 0.606 1pm 5 10/8/2017 H Buffalo -3.5 0.602 1pm 7 10/22/2017 A Pittsburgh 7 0.244 1pm 8 10/29/2017 H Indianapolis -3 0.594 1pm 9 11/5/2017 A Jacksonville 0 0.456 1pm 10 11/12/2017 A Tennessee 3 0.405 1pm 11 11/19/2017 A Denver 3.5 0.398 4:25pm 12 11/26/2017 H Cleveland -8.5 0.809 1pm 13 12/4/2017 H Pittsburgh 1 0.473 8:30pm 14 12/10/2017 H Chicago -6.5 0.642 1pm 15 12/17/2017 A Minnesota 3 0.405 1pm 16 12/24/2017 H Detroit -3 0.594 1pm 17 12/31/2017 A Baltimore 0.500 1pm 8.05 Travel to GB off Thursday night game (extra 3 days rest) Travel to Pittsburgh off their bye week Bad Play three straight road games in middle of the season 2-7 ats last year when facing a team over.500 at time of playing them 2-6-1 ats last year on the road Travel to Jacksonville with Jaguars off their bye week Host Chicago off a Monday night game against Pittsburgh (extra days rest for Chicago) Host Detroit with Lions off a Saturday game (extra days rest for Detroit) Travel to Baltimore to finish regular season with Baltimore off a Saturday game (extra days rest for Baltimore) Ugly Play 10 games against teams projected to finish above.500 Projected Wins Cincinnati s projected win total is 8.35 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 8.05 games. 6
Cleveland WK DATE HA OPPONENT 11 1 9/10/2017 H Pittsburgh 10.65 2 9/17/2017 7 A Baltimore 8.7 3 9/24/2017 7 A Indianapolis 8.55 4 10/1/2017 7 H Cincinnati 8.35 5 10/8/2017 7 H NY Jets 3.8 6 10/15/2017 7 A Houston 8.5 7 10/22/2017 7 H Tennessee 8.75 10/29/2017 7 H Minnesota 8.35 9 BYE 10 11/12/2017 14 A Detroit 7.9 11 11/19/2017 7 H Jacksonville 6.75 12 11/26/2017 7 A Cincinnati 8.35 13 12/3/2017 7 A LA Chargers 7.65 14 12/10/2017 7 H Green Bay 10.25 15 12/17/2017 7 H Baltimore 8.7 16 12/24/2017 7 A Chicago 5.15 17 12/31/2017 7 A Pittsburgh 10.65 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H Pittsburgh 9 0.316 1pm 2 9/17/2017 A Baltimore 9.5 0.240 1pm 3 9/24/2017 A Indianapolis 9.5 0.240 1pm 4 10/1/2017 H Cincinnati 3.5 0.394 1pm 5 10/8/2017 H NY Jets 0 0.541 1pm 6 10/15/2017 A Houston 9.5 0.240 1pm 7 10/22/2017 H Tennessee 5 0.321 1pm 8 10/29/2017 H Minnesota 7 0.306 9:30am 10 11/12/2017 A Detroit 8.5 0.191 1pm 11 11/19/2017 H Jacksonville 3 0.420 1pm 12 11/26/2017 A Cincinnati 8.5 0.191 1pm 13 12/3/2017 A LA Chargers 7 0.244 4:05pm 14 12/10/2017 H Green Bay 9.5 0.114 1pm 15 12/17/2017 H Baltimore 4 0.324 1pm 16 12/24/2017 A Chicago 4.5 0.346 1pm 17 12/31/2017 A Pittsburgh 0.500 1pm 4.93 Good Face Tennessee with Titans off Monday night game vs Indy (extra days rest for Cleveland) Travel to Detroit off bye week with Lions off Monday night game against Green Bay (extra 8 days rest for Browns) 1-7 ats at home last year Bad Travel to Los Angeles to face Chargers with LA off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest for LA) Travel to Chicago with Bears off Saturday game (extra days rest for Chicago) Travel to Pittsburgh to conclude season with Steelers off Saturday game (extra days rest for Pittsburgh) Ugly Face 11 teams projected to win 8 or more games, including 7 of their first 8 games Projected Wins Cleveland s projected win total is 4.45 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 4.93 games. 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A Philadelphia 0 0 10 29 3.5 L L 2 H Baltimore 1 0 20 25 4.5 L L 3 A Miami 0 2 24 30 10 L W 4 A Washington 1 2 20 31 7.5 L L 5 H New England 3 1 13 33 10 L L 6 A Tennessee 2 3 26 28 7.5 L W 7 A Cincinnati 2 4 17 31 11.5 L L 8 H New York Jets 2 5 28 31 2.5 L L 9 H Dallas 6 1 10 35 7 L L 10 A Baltimore 4 4 7 28 7.5 L L 11 H Pittsburgh 4 5 9 24 9 L L 12 H NY Giants 7 3 13 27 6.5 L L 14 H Cincinnati 4 7 10 23 5 L L 15 A Buffalo 6 7 13 33 10.5 L L 16 H San Diego 5 9 20 17 5 W W 17 A Pittsburgh 10 5 24 27 3.5 L W 7
Pittsburgh WK DATE HA OPPONENT 11 1 9/10/2017 A Cleveland 4.45 2 9/17/2017 7 H Minnesota 8.35 3 9/24/2017 7 A Chicago 5.15 4 10/1/2017 7 A Baltimore 8.7 5 10/8/2017 7 H Jacksonville 6.75 6 10/15/2017 7 A Kansas City 9.1 7 10/22/2017 7 H Cincinnati 8.35 10/29/2017 7 A Detroit 7.9 9 BYE 10 11/12/2017 14 A Indianapolis 8.55 11 11/16/2017 4 H Tennessee 8.75 12 11/26/2017 10 H Green Bay 10.25 13 12/4/2017 8 A Cincinnati 8.35 14 12/10/2017 6 H Baltimore 8.7 15 12/17/2017 7 H New England 12.35 16 12/25/2017 8 A Houston 8.5 17 12/31/2017 6 H Cleveland 4.45 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 A Cleveland -9 0.684 1pm 2 9/17/2017 H Minnesota -6 0.671 1pm 3 9/24/2017 A Chicago -5.5 0.702 1pm 4 10/1/2017 A Baltimore -1.5 0.503 1pm 5 10/8/2017 H Jacksonville -9 0.772 1pm 6 10/15/2017 A Kansas City 1.5 0.466 4:25pm 7 10/22/2017 H Cincinnati -7 0.756 1pm 8 10/29/2017 A Detroit -1.5 0.503 8:30pm 10 11/12/2017 A Indianapolis -1 0.527 1pm 11 11/16/2017 H Tennessee -6.5 0.642 8:25pm 12 11/26/2017 H Green Bay -3 0.594 8:30pm 13 12/4/2017 A Cincinnati -1 0.527 8:30pm 14 12/10/2017 H Baltimore -6 0.671 8:30pm 15 12/17/2017 H New England 1.5 0.497 4:25pm 16 12/25/2017 A Houston -1 0.527 4:30pm 17 12/31/2017 H Cleveland 0.500 1pm 9.54 Face Minnesota with Vikings off Monday night game Travel to Indy off bye week Host Tennessee on Thursday game Host Green Bay off Thursday game (extra 3 days rest) Host New England with Patriots off Monday night game against Miami and third straight road game for NE Host Cincinnati with Bengals off bye week Travel to Detroit with Lions off bye week 2016 Results Week HA Home SUW SUL PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A Washington 0 0 38 16-2.5 W W 2 H Cincinnati 1 0 24 16-3 W W 3 A Philadelphia 2 0 3 34-4 L L 4 H Kansas City 2 1 43 14-3.5 W W 5 H New York Jets 1 3 31 13-9.5 W W 6 A Miami 1 4 15 30-7.5 L L 7 H New England 5 1 16 27 7.5 L L 9 A Baltimore 3 4 14 21-3 L L 10 H Dallas 7 1 30 35-3 L L 11 A Cleveland 0 10 24 9-9 W W 12 A Indianapolis 5 5 28 7-8.5 W W 13 H New York Giants 8 3 24 14-6.5 W W 14 A Buffalo 6 6 27 20-2 W W 15 A Cincinnati 5 7 24 20-3 W W 16 H Baltimore 8 6 31 27-5.5 W L 17 H Cleveland 1 14 27 24-3.5 W L 18 H Miami 10 6 30 12-12 W W 19 A Kansas City 12 4 18 16 2 W W 20 A New England 15 2 17 36 5.5 L L Good Host Baltimore off Monday night game against Cincinnati (extra days rest for Ravens) Host Cleveland to conclude regular season off Monday night game (extra days rest for Cleveland) Bad Ugly Face 11 teams projected to win 8 or more games, including 7 of last of 8 games Projected Wins Pittsburgh s projected win total is 10.65 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 9.54 games. 8