Scott Kellen
NFL SCHEDULE SAMPLE Thursday game Monday night Green Bay DATE HA OPPONENT 7 9/11/2016 A Jacksonville Jaguars 7.33 9/18/2016 7 A Minnesota Vikings 9.55 9/25/2016 7 H Detroit Lions 7.24 BYE 10/9/2016 14 H New York Giants 8.1 10/16/2016 7 H Dallas Cowboys 9.2 10/20/2016 4 H Chicago Bears 7.26 10/30/2016 10 A Atlanta Falcons 7.36 11/6/2016 7 H Indianapolis Colts 8.62 11/13/2016 7 A Tennessee Titans 6.19 11/20/2016 7 A Washington Redskins 7.09 11/28/2016 8 A Philadelphia Eagles 6.78 12/4/2016 6 H Houston Texans 8.5 12/11/2016 7 H Seattle Seahawks 10.59 12/18/2016 7 A Chicago Bears 7.26 12/24/2016 6 H Minnesota Vikings 9.55 1/1/2017 8 A Detroit Lions 7.24 # of Opponents with 8 or more projected wins Teams with 8 or more proj. wins Division game Three home games in a row O/U projected wins for the opponent Days between games Three or more road games in a row 2
PROJECTED LINE SAMPLE WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % 1 9/11/2016 H New England -5.5 0.679 5:30 2 9/18/2016 H Tampa Bay -9 0.789 1:05 3 4 9/25/2016 10/2/2016 A Buffalo -2.5 0.512 10:00 AM H Los Angeles -7 0.754 1:25 Projected lines from CG Technologies Las Vegas 5 10/6/2016 A San Francisco -6 0.733 5:25 6 10/17/2016 H NY Jets -4 0.668 5:30 7 10/23/2016 H Seattle -1 0.509 5:30 8 10/30/2016 A Carolina 3.5 0.402 1:25 10 11 12 11/13/2016 11/20/2016 11/27/2016 H San Francisco -10.5 0.792 2:25 A Minnesota 1.5 0.476 11:00 AM A Atlanta -2.5 0.512 11:00 AM SU Win probability based on past performance for these lines 1983-2015 13 14 12/4/2016 12/11/2016 H Washington -6.5 0.634 2:25 A Miami -3 0.583 11:00 AM Start time for team (EST) 15 12/18/2016 H New Orleans -9 0.789 2:05 16 12/24/2016 A Seattle 3.5 0.402 2:25 17 1/1/2017 A Los Angeles 0.500 2:25 Projected wins 9.734 3
NFC WEST SCHEDULE Pythagorean Theorem 2016 SU Margin 2016 Actual Record 2016 Adjusted Record Difference Close Games <=7 pts Team W L T W L Wins Losses Seattle 10 5 1 9.8 6.2 0.2 6 3 Arizona 7 8 1 9.4 6.6-2.4 3 5 Los Angeles 4 12 0 3.3 12.7 0.7 4 5 San Francisco 2 14 0 4.2 11.8-2.2 1 5 Pythagorean Theorem The Pythagorean theorem is a formula that calculates a team s points scored and allowed into an expected winning percentage. Based on this formula for the 2016 season, the Arizona Cardinals under achieved by almost 2.5 wins last year. Likewise San Francisco also under achieved by a little more than two wins. On the other side, Seattle over performed last year slightly as did the Rams by just over a half of a win. Based on this formula there is a chance that Arizona and San Francisco may perform better than they did last year. Obviously offseason moves, injuries, etc will also play into this seasons wins and losses. Just because a team appears to be expected to perform better than last year, it doesn t mean they will reach their season win number. That depends on if there is value in that number. Close wins and losses have a way of reversing themselves over time. The two significant teams last year were Seattle going 6-3 in games decided by seven or less points and San Francisco going just 1-5 in close games. The real question for a team like SF is are they good enough to reverse that trend. If they are, they will get close to their number. TEAM PROJ WINS TOTAL OPP WINS Schedule Rank PROJ WINS BASED ON PRED LINES Seattle Seahawks 10.5 124.02 32 10.20 Arizona Cardinals 8.55 124.22 30 8.78 Los Angeles Rams 5.25 130.97 15 5.56 San Francisco 49ers 4.8 129.97 20 5.26 Update: I will update all numbers shortly and post on the website. The table to the left shows projected wins as set by the odds makers for 2017. The expected win total is an average from the over and under lines for each team, factoring in the extra juice typically applied to these lines. Seattle s projected over under win total is 10.5 wins. When factoring in all of their opponents projected win totals, they add up to 124.02 wins and rank as the 32nd hardest schedule. In other words they have the easiest schedule in the league based on these parameters. Arizona isn t far behind with the 30th hardest schedule. Based on projected lines for all games we can develop a projected win pct based on those lines. Seattle is projected to win 10.2 wins. In the NFC West SF has the best value as they are predicted to win 5.26 games based on their season game by game lines and an OU season win number of just 4.8 wins. 4
Arizona WK DATE HA OPPOENT 9 1 9/10/2017 A Detroit 7.90 2 9/17/2017 7 A Indianapolis 8.55 3 9/25/2017 8 H Dallas 9.65 4 10/1/2017 6 H San Francisco 4.80 5 10/8/2017 7 A Philadelphia 8.30 6 10/15/2017 7 H Tampa Bay 8.20 7 10/22/2017 7 A LA Rams London 5.25 8 BYE 9 11/5/2017 14 A San Francisco 4.80 10 11/9/2017 4 H Seattle 10.50 11 11/19/2017 10 A Houston 8.50 12 11/26/2017 7 H Jacksonville 6.75 13 12/3/2017 7 H LA Rams 5.25 14 12/10/2017 7 H Tennessee 8.75 15 12/17/2017 7 A Washington 7.55 16 12/24/2017 7 H NY Giants 8.97 17 12/31/2017 7 A Seattle 10.50 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % 1 9/10/2017 A Detroit 3 0.405 1pm 2 9/17/2017 A Indianapolis 3 0.405 1pm 3 9/25/2017 H Dallas 2 0.480 8:30pm 4 10/1/2017 H San Francisco -9 0.772 4:05pm 5 10/8/2017 A Philadelphia 2 0.435 1pm 6 10/15/2017 H Tampa Bay -3 0.594 4:05pm 7 10/22/2017 A LA Rams -3 0.580 1pm 9 11/5/2017 A San Francisco -3.5 0.606 4:05pm 10 11/9/2017 H Seattle 1.5 0.497 8:25pm 11 11/19/2017 A Houston 2.5 0.466 1pm 12 11/26/2017 H Jacksonville -6.5 0.642 4:25pm 13 12/3/2017 H LA Rams -8.5 0.809 4:25pm 14 12/10/2017 H Tennessee -3 0.594 4:05pm 15 12/17/2017 A Washington 2 0.435 1pm 16 12/24/2017 H NY Giants -2 0.565 4:25pm 17 12/31/2017 A Seattle 0.500 4:25pm 8.78 Good Travel to Houston with 10 days rest following a Thursday night game against Seattle Will get Jacksonville, the Rams and Tennessee at home in succession late in the year Travel to SF off their bye week Play Rams on neutral field in London instead of at LA only 7 true road games Thursday game at home against Seattle Play SF off Monday night game while SF has 10 days rest off Thursday game Bad TB coming off 10 days rest following Thursday night game against NE Four scheduled early starts in the East Coast this year Ugly Ariz 0-3 ATS last year laying more than seven points. They are projected to be laying more than seven points twice this year Projected Wins Arizona projected win total is 8.55 wins but based on projected lines they are calculated to win 8.78 games. Last year they were forecasted to win about.75 games less than their number so maybe a bit of an overcorrection this year? 2016 Results OSU OSU Week HA Opponent W L PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H New England 0 0 21 23-9 L L 2 H Tampa Bay 1 0 40 7-7 W W 3 A Buffalo 0 2 18 33-5.5 L L 4 H Los Angeles 2 1 13 17-9.5 L L 5 A San Francisco 1 3 33 21-3.5 W W 6 H New York Jets 1 4 28 3-7 W W 7 H Seattle 4 1 6 6-1.5 T L 8 A Carolina 1 5 20 30 2.5 L L 10 H San Francisco 1 7 23 20-14 W L 11 A Minnesota 5 4 24 30 2 L L 12 A Atlanta 6 4 19 38 4 L L 13 H Washington 6 4 31 23-2.5 W W 14 A Miami 7 5 23 26-2 L L 15 H New Orleans 5 8 41 48-3 L L 16 A Seattle 9 4 34 31 9 W W 17 A Los Angeles 4 11 44 6-7 W W 5
Los Angeles WK DATE HA OPPONENT 11 1 9/10/2017 H Indianapolis 8.55 2 9/17/2017 7 H Washington 7.55 3 9/21/2017 4 A San Francisco 4.8 4 10/1/2017 10 A Dallas 9.65 5 10/8/2017 7 H Seattle 10.5 6 10/15/2017 7 A Jacksonville 6.75 7 10/22/2017 7 H Arizona London 8.55 8 BYE 9 11/5/2017 14 A NY Giants 8.97 10 11/12/2017 7 H Houston 8.5 11 11/19/2017 7 A Minnesota 8.35 12 11/26/2017 7 H New Orleans 7.9 13 12/3/2017 7 A Arizona 8.55 14 12/10/2017 7 H Philadelphia 8.3 15 12/17/2017 7 A Seattle 10.5 16 12/24/2017 7 A Tennessee 8.75 17 12/31/2017 7 H San Francisco 4.8 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H Indianapolis 3 0.420 4:05pm 2 9/17/2017 H Washington 2 0.480 4:25pm 3 9/21/2017 A San Francisco 1.5 0.466 8:25pm 4 10/1/2017 A Dallas 12.5 0.175 1pm 5 10/8/2017 H Seattle 6 0.264 4:05pm 6 10/15/2017 A Jacksonville 3.5 0.398 4:05pm 7 10/22/2017 H Arizona 3 0.420 1pm 9 11/5/2017 A NY Giants 8.5 0.191 1pm 10 11/12/2017 H Houston 3 0.420 4:05pm 11 11/19/2017 A Minnesota 7.5 0.229 1pm 12 11/26/2017 H New Orleans 2 0.480 4:05pm 13 12/3/2017 A Arizona 8.5 0.191 4:25pm 14 12/10/2017 H Philadelphia 1.5 0.497 4:25pm 15 12/17/2017 A Seattle 13.5 0.182 4:05pm 16 12/24/2017 A Tennessee 7 0.244 1pm 17 12/31/2017 H San Francisco 0.500 4:25pm 5.56 2016 Results Week HA Opponent OSU OSU PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 A San Francisco 0 0 0 28-2.5 L L 2 H Seattle 1 0 9 3 5.5 W W 3 A Tampa Bay 1 1 37 32 3.5 W W 4 A Arizona 1 2 17 13 9.5 W W 5 H Buffalo 2 2 19 30 2.5 L L 6 A Detroit 2 3 28 31 3 L T 7 H NY Giants 3 3 10 17 3 L L 9 H Carolina 2 5 10 13 3 L T 10 A New York Jets 3 6 9 6-1 W W 11 H Miami 5 4 10 14 1 L L 12 A New Orleans 4 6 21 49 8 L L 13 A New England 9 2 10 26 13.5 L L 14 H Atlanta 7 5 14 42 5 L L 15 A Seattle 8 4 3 24 15.5 L L 16 H San Francisco 1 13 21 22-6 L L 17 H Arizona 6 8 6 44 7 L L Good Travel to Dallas with 10 days rest off a Thursday game Dallas off Monday night game so only 6 days rest Travel to the Giants off their bye week 14 days rest. Giants also off bye week though Could catch a break if Andrew Luck doesn t play opening week Bad Lose a home game to play Cardinals in London 2 early starts (3 games total) due to East Coast travel Ugly 11 games against teams projected to win more than 8 games this year, including 7 of last 9 games Projected Wins LA projected win total is 5.25 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 5.56 games. 6
San Francisco WK DATE HA OPPONENT 11 1 9/10/2017 H Carolina 9.2 2 9/17/2017 7 A Seattle 10.5 3 9/21/2017 4 H LA Rams 5.25 4 10/1/2017 10 A Arizona 8.55 5 10/8/2017 7 A Indianapolis 8.55 6 10/15/2017 7 A Washington 7.55 7 10/22/2017 7 H Dallas 9.65 8 10/29/2017 7 A Philadelphia 8.3 9 11/5/2017 7 H Arizona 8.55 10 11/12/2017 7 H NY Giants 8.97 11 BYE 12 11/26/2017 14 H Seattle 10.5 13 12/3/2017 7 A Chicago 5.15 14 12/10/2017 7 A Houston 8.5 15 12/17/2017 7 H Tennessee 8.75 16 12/24/2017 7 H Jacksonville 6.75 17 12/31/2017 7 A LA Rams 5.25 WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 H Carolina 4.5 0.362 4:25pm 2 9/17/2017 A Seattle 13 0.193 4:25pm 3 9/21/2017 H LA Rams -1.5 0.534 8:25pm 4 10/1/2017 A Arizona 9 0.228 4:05pm 5 10/8/2017 A Indianapolis 9 0.228 1pm 6 10/15/2017 A Washington 8 0.235 1pm 7 10/22/2017 H Dallas 8.5 0.278 4:05pm 8 10/29/2017 A Philadelphia 7.5 0.229 1pm 9 11/5/2017 H Arizona 3.5 0.394 4:05pm 10 11/12/2017 H NY Giants 4.5 0.362 4:25pm 12 11/26/2017 H Seattle 7.5 0.263 4:05pm 13 12/3/2017 A Chicago 4 0.337 1pm 14 12/10/2017 A Houston 9 0.228 1pm 15 12/17/2017 H Tennessee 3 0.420 4:25pm 16 12/24/2017 H Jacksonville 1 0.473 4:05pm 17 12/31/2017 A LA Rams 0.500 4:25pm 5.26 2016 Results OSU OSU Week HA Opponent W L PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H Los Angeles 0 0 28 0 2.5 W W 2 A Carolina 0 1 27 46 12.5 L L 3 A Seattle 1 1 18 37 10.5 L L 4 H Dallas 2 1 17 24 1.5 L L 5 H Arizona 1 3 21 33 3.5 L L 6 A Buffalo 3 2 16 45 7.5 L L 7 H Tampa Bay 2 3 17 34-1 L L 9 H New Orleans 3 4 23 41 5.5 L L 10 A Arizona 3 4 20 23 14 L W 11 H New England 7 2 17 30 12 L L 12 A Miami 6 4 24 31 7 L T 13 A Chicago 2 9 6 26-1 L L 14 H New York Jets 3 9 17 23-3 L L 15 A Atlanta 8 5 13 41 14 L L 16 A Los Angeles 4 10 22 21 6 W W 17 H Seattle 9 5 23 25 11.5 L W Good Thursday game against the Rams on short week at home Travel to Arizona off 10 days rest while Arizona comes off Monday night game with only 6 days rest Home for almost a month with three straight home games and a bye built in Face Seattle at home off bye week while Seattle travels to SF off Monday night game with only 6 days rest Face Philadelphia with Eagles coming off Monday night game against Washington 11 games against teams projected to win more than 8 games this year, including 9 of first 11 Bad Face Jacksonville with Jags off three straight home games Ugly 3 straight road games early in the year including two straight East Coast travels Face Dallas, Arizona and Washington off their bye weeks Projected Wins SF projected win total is 4.80 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 5.26 games so there is some value on the over. 7
Seattle WK DATE HA OPPONENT 10 1 9/10/2017 A Green Bay 10.25 2 9/17/2017 7 H San Francisco 4.8 3 9/24/2017 7 A Tennessee 8.75 4 10/1/2017 7 H Indianapolis 8.55 5 10/8/2017 7 A LA Rams 5.25 6 BYE 7 10/22/2017 14 A NY Giants 8.97 8 10/29/2017 7 H Houston 8.5 9 11/5/2017 7 H Washington 7.55 10 11/9/2017 4 A Arizona 8.55 11 11/20/2017 11 H Atlanta 9.55 12 11/26/2017 6 A San Francisco 4.8 13 12/3/2017 7 H Philadelphia 8.3 14 12/10/2017 7 A Jacksonville 6.75 15 12/17/2017 7 H LA Rams 5.25 16 12/24/2017 7 A Dallas 9.65 17 12/31/2017 7 H Arizona 8.55 2016 Results Week HA Opponent OSU OSU PF PA LIN WL ATS 1 H Miami 0 0 12 10-11 W L 2 A Los Angeles 0 1 3 9-5.5 L L 3 H San Francisco 1 1 37 18-11 W W 4 A New York Jets 1 2 27 17 0 W W 6 H Atlanta 4 1 26 24-7 W L 7 A Arizona 3 3 6 6 1.5 T W 8 A New Orleans 2 4 20 25-1 L L 9 H Buffalo 4 4 31 25-6 W T 10 A New England 7 1 31 24 7.5 W W 11 H Philadelphia 5 4 26 15-6.5 W W 12 A Tampa Bay 5 5 5 14-5.5 L L 13 H Carolina 4 7 40 7-8.5 W W 14 A Green Bay 6 6 10 38-3 L L 15 H Los Angeles 4 9 24 3-16 W W 16 H Arizona 5 8 31 34-9 L L 17 A San Francisco 2 13 25 23-12 W L 18 H Detroit 9 7 26 6-8.5 W W 19 A Atlanta 11 5 20 36 6.5 L L Good Travel to Giants off their bye week WK DATE HA OPPONENT Line % Time 1 9/10/2017 A Green Bay 3 0.405 4:25pm 2 9/17/2017 H San Francisco -13 0.807 4:25pm 3 9/24/2017 A Tennessee -2 0.520 4:05pm 4 10/1/2017 H Indianapolis -7 0.756 8:30pm 5 10/8/2017 A LA Rams -6 0.736 4:05pm 7 10/22/2017 A NY Giants 0 0.456 4:25pm 8 10/29/2017 H Houston -7.5 0.771 4:05pm 9 11/5/2017 H Washington -8 0.765 4:05pm 10 11/9/2017 A Arizona -1.5 0.503 8:25pm 11 11/20/2017 H Atlanta -3 0.594 8:30pm 12 11/26/2017 A San Francisco -7.5 0.737 4:05pm 13 12/3/2017 H Philadelphia -7 0.756 8:30pm 14 12/10/2017 A Jacksonville -4 0.676 1pm 15 12/17/2017 H LA Rams -13.5 0.818 4:05pm 16 12/24/2017 A Dallas 3 0.405 4:25pm 17 12/31/2017 H Arizona 0.500 4:25pm 10.20 Face Atlanta at home (Monday night) with 11 days rest although Atlanta will have 8 days rest Only 1 projected early start on East Coast Bad Travel to Arizona for Thursday night game Face Houston off Texans bye week Face Jacksonville who will be in the middle of 3 straight home games and early East Coast start for Seattle Ugly Travel to SF off Monday night game against Atlanta (Arizona week before) while SF comes off their bye week and in the end of three straight home games Projected Wins Seattle projected win total is 10.50 wins. Based on projected lines they are calculated to win 10.20 games. Easiest schedule in the league for Seattle. 8