Chart Collection for Morning Briefing September 11, 2017 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 4-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box
4.6 4.4 4.2 4 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2.8.6.4.2 -.2 Figure 1. REAL GDP, PERSONAL CONSUMPTION DEFLATOR, & FEDERAL FUNDS TARGET RATE Real GDP* (2.2) PCED* (1.4) Federal Funds Rate (1.1) Q2 Jul 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 4.6 4.4 4.2 4 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2.8.6.4.2 -.2 * Yearly percent change. Source: Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Economic Analysis. 12 10 Figure 2. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & BUSINESS CYCLES (percent) 12 10 8 8 6 6 4 Aug 4 2 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 82 84 86 88 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 3 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
3.5 2.5 Figure 3. US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND & TIPS YIELDS (percent, daily) 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield (6) TIPS Yield (0.25) 3.5 2.5 1.5 1.5.5.5 -.5 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Federal Reserve Board. -.5 Figure 4. EXPECTED INFLATION IN 10-YEAR TIPS* (percent, daily) Expected Inflation (1.81) 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5.5.5 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Nominal minus TIPS yield. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 4 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
3 Figure 5. COPPER FUTURES PRICE & US TREASURY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD 3.5 360 340 Copper Futures Price* (cents per pound) 320 10-Year Yield (percent) 2.5 2 260 240 220 1.5 1 2014 2015 2016 2017 * Nearby futures contract. Source: Haver Analytics. 700 Figure 6. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & COPPER FUTURES PRICE 650 550 450 350 Spot Price Index* (1967=) Copper Futures Price** (cents per pound) 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures contract. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 5 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
1150 1050 Figure 7. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES (1967=) 1150 1050 950 850 950 850 750 650 Spot Price Index (517.2) Metals Component* (893.1) 750 650 550 450 550 450 350 350 250 150 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 250 150 * Includes scrap copper, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. Source: Haver Analytics. Figure 8. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 700 85 95 105 Spot Price Index* (1967=) JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 115 125 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Page 6 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
Figure 9. INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 1 85 0 95 Spot Price Index: Metals* (1967=) 0 105 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 115 125 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 0 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. 60 Figure 10. COPPER FUTURES PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 65 70 75 85 J P Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 9/1 95 Copper Futures Price** (cents per pound) 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. **Nearby futures contract. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and JP Morgan. Page 7 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
160 150 140 Figure 11. FUTURES PRICES* 70 60 50 40 30 Brent Crude Futures Price (dollars per barrel) Copper Futures Price (cents per pound) 20 10 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Nearby futures price. Source: Haver Analytics. 700 Figure 12. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX 160 140 Spot Price Index* Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) 60 40 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 8 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
85 Figure 13. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 160 150 140 95 105 115 Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel) 70 60 50 125 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate** (inverted scale) 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 40 30 20 * Nearby futures price. ** Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Haver Analytics. 700 Figure 14. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in local currencies) & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX 00 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (local currencies) 00 Spot Price Index* 00 00 00 00 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 0 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau. Page 9 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
700 Figure 15. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX (in dollars) & INDUSTRIALS COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (daily) 1 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in dollars) Spot Price Index* 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 0 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International and Commodity Research Bureau. 85 Figure 16. EMERGING MARKETS MSCI STOCK PRICE INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR 00 00 95 00 105 Emerging Markets MSCI Stock Price Index (in local currencies) 00 115 JP Morgan Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate* (inverted scale) 00 00 125 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 * Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States. Source: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley Capital International. Page 10 / September 11, 2017 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing
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