JERRY D. PARRISH, PH.D. Chief Economist Florida Chamber Foundation jparrish@flfoundation.org @DrJerryParrish
2007
2007 2014
US versus Florida Coincident Indicators 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US Recession US Data Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve
US versus Florida Coincident Indicators 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US Recession FL Recession FL US Data Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve
400 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 -400-500 -600 Year-over-Year Job Creation 2008 to present (thousand) April 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-549.5 305.4 197.5 Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
400 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 -400-500 -600 Year-over-Year Job Creation 2008 to present (thousand) April 2016 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-549.5 305.4 Forecast: 190,000 197.5 Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
www.thefloridascorecard.org Florida s Economy $964.9 Billion GDP (16 th / $1T in 2018) 20.61 Million Residents (3 rd / +1000/day) 197,500 jobs created past 12 months Florida creates around 1 out of every 10 jobs in the U.S. 112.3 Million Visitors in 2016
Income Migration Total Wealth Migration from 1992-2015 Florida Colombia County
Florida Produces 1 out of How Many Jobs? 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year-over-Year Job Creation Category October 2016 to October 2017 Percent Construction 35,600 7.4% Manufacturing 12,200 3.4% Professional & Business Services Trade, Transportation & Utilities Education & Health Services 38,900 3.0% 38,300 2.2% 17,600 1.4% Leisure & Hospitality 15,500 1.3% Data Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
County Year-over-Year Job Growth October 2016 October 2017 Florida Job Growth Rate: 2.3% U.S. Rate: 1.4% 10 Florida Counties Lost Jobs Highest Growth Rate: Suwannee 4.8% Highest Jobs Number: Miami-Dade 38,948 Data Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics from Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Job Creation 2007 to Dec 16 Since 2007: 31 Florida Counties Gained Jobs 36 Florida Counties Lost Jobs Florida 46.3% of counties have more jobs now U.S. 37.5% have more jobs now Data: LAUS
Number of Counties - Peak Jobs Year 40 35 34 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 13 11 6 1 1 1 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2016 SECURING FLORIDA S FUTURE FL2030@FLCHAMBER.COM #FL2030
Number of Counties - Low Job Number year 21 9 8 2 2 5 4 5 3 3 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 SECURING FLORIDA S FUTURE FL2030@FLCHAMBER.COM #FL2030
40 35 Both High and Low Years for Job Numbers - Number of Counties 34 30 25 20 21 15 10 5 0 13 11 9 8 6 5 2 2 0 5 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 High Low SECURING FLORIDA S FUTURE FL2030@FLCHAMBER.COM #FL2030
Year of Highest Job Numbers 2006-2016 Heat Map on Years Darker are earlier years 2016 is the lightest color 34 Counties had highest job number in 2016 Data source: QCEW Yearly data
2011-2016 19 Florida Counties Lost a total of 6,951 Jobs County Jobs Percent Hardee -1,955-18.24% Hendry -1,404-9.07% Citrus -1,030-2.26% Lafayette -468-13.73% Putnam -305-1.17% Madison -284-3.89% Glades -271-5.66% Jefferson -186-3.49% Union -180-3.79% Gadsden -151-0.87% Washington -147-1.57% Holmes -111-1.71% Franklin -93-1.99% Liberty -92-3.54% Jackson -86-0.52% Taylor -80-0.94% Highlands -78-0.23% Calhoun -23-0.49% Hamilton -7-0.16%
2011-2016 States percent job growth during 2011-16 U.S. Growth Rate 7.28% Florida 11.79%
Jobs and Population Changes: 2011-16 Top Number: Jobs Bottom Number: Population Change Heat map on Job Numbers darker green, higher number of jobs created
Voters Support Targeted Incentives Do you approve of Florida providing financial incentives to encourage companies to stay in Florida or move to Florida from another state in exchange for creating jobs and investing capital in Florida? Group Approve Disapprove Unsure Approve- Disapprove Overall 78% 13% 8% +65
Voters Support Targeted Incentives Do you approve of Florida providing financial incentives to encourage companies to stay in Florida or move to Florida from another state in exchange for creating jobs and investing capital in Florida? Group Approve Disapprove Unsure Approve- Disapprove Overall 78% 13% 8% +65 Republicans 87% 7% 5% +80 Democrats 71% 19% 9% +52 Others 77% 11% 12% +66
6 Pillars 3 Years 10,000+ Floridians 1 Plan Florida2030.org 25
Florida 2030 Townhalls 67 counties 10,000+ engaged 20,000+ miles traveled 150 hours of recorded conversation about Florida s Future 200+ business, chamber, and foundation partners >> Florida2030.org <<
Florida s next 5.4 million People Top Number: Population Increase Bottom Number: Percentage Increase Top 8 Counties Expected to account for 56.9% of Population Increase: 1. Miami-Dade 2. Orange 3. Hillsborough 4. Broward 5. Palm Beach 6. Lee 7. Duval 8. Osceola Data from: Population Studies Program, BEBR, University of Florida
Under-18 Poverty in Florida 944,415 kids in Florida 23.4% poverty rate Of this group: Age 5 to 17 663,896 Under 5 280,519
Florida Chamber Foundation Events Florida Chamber Foundation s 2018 Economic Outlook Summit Jan 9, 2018 Tallahassee Florida Chamber s 2018 Capitol Days Jan 10-11, 2018 Tallahassee Release of Florida 2030 Report - March 2018 Florida Chamber Foundation Prosperity Summit - May 2-3, 2018 Orlando