Brazil Baseline and Mitigation Scenarios The 12 th AIM International Workshop William Wills ww@ufrj.br Tsukuba, Japan 19-21, February 2007
CCAP (Center for Clean Air Policy): Dialogue on Future International Actions to Address Global Climate Change (FAD) Four key developing countries: Brazil, China, India, and Mexico Informal, off-the-record forum to discuss options for future international climate framework Two Phases: GHG Mitigation Options Policy and Implementation Strategy Financial support: United Kingdom s Department for International Development, the Tinker Foundation and the Hewlett Foundation For all presentations and working papers from the process, see: http://www.ccap.org/international/future.htm
Scenarios RP A2 A2 AP A2 Scenarios RP B2 B2 AP B2
Driving Forces Demography Economy International Oil Price Technology Energy Policy
Income Distribution in A2
Income Distribution in B2
Structure of the economy in A2 2000 US$ 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 GDP 10 6 ppp 1,150.78 1,365.08 1,682.02 2,057.47 2,509.24 3,060.23 GDP/cap 10 6 ppp 6.72 7.35 8.48 9.79 11.36 13.26 Agriculture 10 6 ppp 88.16 105.15 124.93 148.14 173.99 202.66 Industry 10 6 ppp 328.92 396.95 521.44 675.88 869.17 1,112.87 Energy 10 6 ppp 82.36 109.7 136.09 166.67 202.66 245.12 Services 10 6 ppp 651.34 753.3 899.55 1,066.77 1,263.43 1,499.58
Structure of the economy in B2 2000 US$ 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 GDP 10 6 ppp 1,150.78 1,365.08 1,682.02 2,057.47 2,509.24 3,060.23 GDP/cap 10 6 ppp 6.72 7.35 8.48 9.79 11.36 13.26 Agriculture 10 6 ppp 88.16 115.29 143.05 167.86 189.46 209.19 Industry 10 6 ppp 328.92 371.03 472.69 607.83 736 865.83 Energy 10 6 ppp 82.36 110.18 140.16 173.76 197.42 213.38 Services 10 6 ppp 651.34 768.59 926.12 1,108.03 1,386.36 1,771.83
Methodological Tools: Economy Name IMACLIM-R Input variables / Exogenous parameters Output variables - input-output coefficients - prices - production capacities - quantities of output - saving rate - exports/imports - public policies (debt, public investment, fiscal system) - allocation and level of investments - capital intensity - income - labor productivity - final demands - growth parameters - evolution of public debt (increasing returns to scale, productivity growth, autonomous and endogenous technical change) Type of model/ Internal calculations recursive general equilibrium (including static equilibrium and dynamic relations for capital growth, technical change, demography, etc.) Level of Aggregation flexible in number of sectors and countries.
Methodological Tools: Energy Demand Name MAED Input variables / Exogenous parameters Output variables Type of model/ Internal calculations Level of Aggregation - social factors: demography (pop), useful energy demand parametric model useful energy: - equipments: energy efficiency, - specific use of - energy forms - thermo uses: ind, res, - prices - fuels for transport: - fuels for motors - non-energet. Use - coke
Methodological Tools: Energy Supply Name MESSAGE Input variables / Exogenous parameters Output variables Type of model/ Internal calculations Level of Aggregation - useful energy - consumption of resources, - inter-temporal - electricity - prices: primary energy primary, secondary, final energy, optimization model - gas and final energy, technology, imports, exports, stocks - biomass operation costs - needs for investment - coal - emissions, environmental - oil and derivates - sugar cane, - alcohol,
CO2 Emissions in Industry MMt CO2 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 A2 Recent Policies A2 Advanced Options B2 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Options 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
A2 and B2 Scenarios Light Vehicles Energy Consumption (PJ) Recent Policies A2 Advanced Policies A2 1400 1400 1200 1200 PJ 1000 800 600 400 NGV Ethanol Gasohol PJ 1000 800 600 400 NGV Ethanol Gasohol 200 200 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Policies B2 1800 1600 1800 1600 1400 1400 PJ 1200 1000 800 600 NGV Ethanol Gasohol PJ 1200 1000 800 600 NGV Ethanol Gasohol 400 400 200 200 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 CO2 Emissions from Light Vehicles 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2000 Recent Policy A2 Scenario Advanced Policies A2 Recent Policy B2 Scenario Advanced Policies B2 MMtCO2
A2 and B2 Scenarios Heavy Vehicles Recent Policies A2 Advanced Policies A2 3.500,00 3.500,00 PJ 3.000,00 2.500,00 2.000,00 1.500,00 1.000,00 500,00 Jet Fuel Diesel Biodiesel Eletricity Fuel Oil NGV PJ 3.000,00 2.500,00 2.000,00 1.500,00 1.000,00 500,00 Jet Fuel Diesel Biodiesel Eletricity Fuel Oil NGV - 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025-2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Policies B2 3.500,00 3.500,00 PJ 3.000,00 2.500,00 2.000,00 1.500,00 1.000,00 500,00 Jet Fuel Diesel Biodiesel Eletricity Fuel Oil NGV PJ 3.000,00 2.500,00 2.000,00 1.500,00 1.000,00 500,00 Jet Fuel Diesel Biodiesel Eletricity Fuel Oil NGV - 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025-2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
CO2 Emissions from Heavy Vehicles 250 200 MMtCO2 150 100 50-2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Recent Policies A2 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Options A2 Advanced Options B2
CO2 Emissions from the Services Sector 16 14 12 10 MMtCO2 8 6 4 2-2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Recent Policies A2 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Options A2 Advanced Options B2
CO2 Emissions from Households 40 35 30 25 MMt CO2 20 15 10 5 0 A2 Recent Policies A2 Advanced Options B2 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Options 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
CO2 Emissions from Power Sector 50 45 40 35 MMtCO2 30 25 20 15 10 5-2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Recent Policy A2 Scenario Recent Policy B2 Scenario Advanced Policies A2 Advanced Policies B2
Total CO2 Emissions A2 Group of Scenarios
Total CO2 Emissions B2 Group of Scenarios
Total CO2 Emissions - Energy 1.400 1.200 1.000 MMtCO2 800 600 400 200-2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Recent Policies A2 Recent Policies B2 Advanced Options A2 Advanced Options B2
Conclusion: Additional Policies Energy efficiency in industry and transport Natural gas in industry + residential and commercial sectors Hydropower potential to be tapped Ethanol: domestic production + exports Biodiesel in transport sector Renewable power generation in remote areas (access to electricity for rural population) No major negative impacts are expected, instead, employment generation associated to biofuels and energy efficiency are the main positive macroeconomic impacts anticipated in this scenario.
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