The Economic Value of Federal Public Lands Ver. 5-15-18
Outline Federal Lands Have Many Values Context: The U.S. Economy Context: The West s Economy A Theory of Rural Development The Role of Federal Lands in Rural Development Slide 4 16 23 36 46
Two types of public lands: FEDERAL 48% of the West Managed for multiple uses & values STATE 6.4% Managed to turn a profit, mostly with commercial uses
Federal Lands Have Many Values
Commodity Production Personal Income from Employment in Resource Extraction, Non-Metro West, 2016 Mining, oil, gas, timber 5% We define non-metro as rural. Metro counties contain a core population of 50,000 or more people or are outlying counties and tied economically to the core areas by labor force commuting. Data from: U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N. Agriculture in 2016 represented 3% of total personal income in the non-metro, or rural West.
Wildlife and Biodiversity Photo: National Park Service http://www.nps.gov/arch/photosmultimedia/index.htm
Scenery Photo: National Park Service http://www.nps.gov/arch/photosmultimedia/index.htm
Culture, Heritage
Engage Youth and Diversity Photo used by permission: SHIFT https://shiftjh.org/
Outdoor Recreation 7.6 million jobs 2% of GDP In the West: 1.9 million jobs Federal lands recreation equals $51 billion in visitor expenditures 143 million Americans participate Outdoor recreation figures from: https://outdoorindustry.org/advocacy/. Visitation to public lands from: https://www.coloradocollege.edu/dotasset/5e3d4978-4cb7-4784-bf36-b086cf332fc9.pdf. Federal and expenditures from (page 22) of: http://www.coloradotpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/usfs-econ-impacts-rec.pdf. GDP figure from: https://www.bea.gov/outdoor-recreation/.
Ecosystem Services Water purification, erosion & flood control, carbon storage, climate regulation, pollination, medicine, etc. National Forests provide 33% of our water in the West National Forest figures from: https://www.fs.fed.us/managing-land/national-forests-grasslands/water-facts. West figures from: https://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/45417. Image from: http://www.clipartpanda.com/clipart_images/watersheds-are-complex-22834047. National Forests provide water for 66 million people in 3,400 communities worth $7.2 billion annually
Quality of Life Public lands as a setting, making a community a pleasant place to live
Business Recruitment The outdoors as a way to attract business
Recruitment of Talent Salt Lake City offers great outdoor recreation with 15 national parks and monuments, all within a one-day drive Bozeman, Montana in the 1990s - Goldman Sachs online recruitment promotion for their SLC office.
Recruitment of Talent Colorado Springs, Colorado
Context: The U.S. Economy
95% of New Jobs in U.S. in SERVICES Health Health care care & & social social assistance assistance (20.4%) (20.4%) Accommodation & food & food services services (10.9%) (10.9%) Real Real estate estate & rental & rental & leasing & leasing (10.7%) (10.7%) Professional & & technical technical services services (10.0%) (10.0%) Administrative & & waste waste services services (8.2%) (8.2%) Other Other services, except except public public admin. admin. (6. 6%) (6. 6%) Finance Finance & insurance & insurance (6. 2%) (6. 2%) Educational services services (5.6%) (5.6%) Transportation & & warehousing (3.8%) (3.8%) Arts, Arts, entertainment, & & recreation (3.8%) (3.8%) Government & & government enterprises (3.3%) (3.3%) Retail Retail Trade Trade (3.0%) (3.0%) Mining Mining (2.4%) (2.4%) Management of of companies & & enterprises (2.2%) (2.2%) Wholesale trade trade (1.9%) (1.9%) Forestry, fishing, & & related activities (.5%) (.5%) Construction (.4%) (.4%) Utilities Utilities Farm Farm employment Information Manufacturing 160,500 132,200-27,300-418,000-671,200-3,830,400 6,056,400 3,226,000 3,178,800 2,971,100 2,419,400 1,960,600 1,845,100 1,650,700 1,125,300 1,123,900 991,000 891,200 696,200 642,500 552,200 New jobs 2000-2016 -6,000,000 - -4,000,000-2,000,000 0 2, 000,000 4, 000,000 6, 000,000 8, 000,000 Services Non-Services U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, Washington, D.C. Table SA25N.
Jobs & Value of Production Track Closely All industries in U.S. $20,000 160,000 Total Value Added (Billions of 2014 $s) $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Jobs Value 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N and Regional Economic Accounts https://www.bea.gov/regional/downloadzip.cfm. 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Total Full & Part-Time Jobs (Thousands)
Jobs & Value of Production Track Closely Health Care Health Care And Social Assistance Value Added (Billions of 2014 $s) $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Jobs Value 2010 2012 2014 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Health Care And Social Assistance Full & Part-Time Jobs (Thousands)
Jobs & Value of Production Track Closely Professional & Technical Services Professional, Scientific, And Technical Services Value Added (Billions of 2014 $s) $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Jobs 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Value 2010 2012 2014 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Professional, Scientific, And Technical Services Full & Part-Time Jobs (Thousands)
Manufacturing is the Exception Manufacturing Value Added (Billions of 2014 $s) $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Manufacturing Value Jobs 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Figure is for U.S. /economic-development/trends-performance/changing-role-manufacturing/ Automation figure from: Hicks MJ and Devaraj S. 2015. The Myth and the Reality of Manufacturing in America. Muncie, IN: Center of Business and Economic Research, Ball State University. http://conexus.cberdata.org/files/mfgreality.pdf. 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Manufacturing Full & Part-Time Jobs (Thousands) Productivity higher than ever, but with fewer workers 88% of job loss due to automation
Other Sectors Are Outperforming Manufacturing Professional,,Scien/fic,,&,Technical,Services, Health,&,Social,Assistance, Manufacturing, $33.17% $22.43% $20.04% 19.8% 18.7% 12.3% Average%hourly%earnings% Average hourly earnings U.S.%jobs%(Milions)% U.S. jobs (millions) Figures for U.S. http://www.bls.gov/ industries at a glance
Context: The West s Economy
The West Outperforms the Rest of the Country Jobs Western States Non-Western States U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, Washington, D.C. Table SA25N.
90% of New Jobs in West in SERVICES Health care & social assistance (22.0%) Professional & technical services (10.5%) Real estate & rental & leasing (10.3%) Accommodation & food services (10.2%) Administrative & waste services (6.8%) Other services, except public admin. (6.4%) Educational services (5.2%) Government & government enterprises (4.8%) Finance & insurance (4.6%) Transportation & warehousing (4.1%) Arts, entertainment, & recreation (4.0%) Forestry, fishing, & related activities (1.0%) Management of companies & enterprises (.6%) Utilities Utilities (.1%) ( Utilities (.1%) Construction -22,355 Farm employment Information Manufacturing -591,364 Retail Trade (5.1%) Wholesale trade (2.6%) Mining (1.6%) -43,079-64,079 1,689,711 806,230 788,790 786,689 519,518 493,550 401,286 391,378 370,565 356,965 314,538 308,576 195,846 126,138 75,558 43,435 8,695 New jobs 2000-2016 Services Non-Services U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, Washington, D.C. Table SA25N.
West Personal Income by Source 2016 Government 12.4% Non-Labor: retirement, investments, etc. 36.1% Services: health, engineering, education, etc. Government 46.8% 11.0% Extractive: mining, oil, gas, timber 1.4% Manufacturing, construction, agriculture Data from: U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N
Rural West Personal Income by Source 2016 etc. Government 14.8% Non-Labor: retirement, investments, etc. Services: health, engineering, education, etc. Government 28.0% 45.8% 10.2% Manufacturing, construction, agriculture 4.7% Extractive: mining, oil, gas, timber Data from: U.S. Department of Commerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N. We define non-metro as rural. Metro counties contain a core population of 50,000 or more people or are outlying counties and tied economically to the core areas by labor force commuting.
Personal Income in the West 1,800,000 1,600,000 Services Doctors, engineers, lawyers, accountants, waiters, barbers, high-tech workers, etc. 1,400,000 1,200,000 Non-Labor Retirement, investments, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. Millions of 2015 $s 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 Government Non-Services red line Local, state, federal Construction, manufacturing, mining, oil & gas, agriculture 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Much of the Growth is From Non-Labor Sources 1,800,000 1,600,000 40% on average of county income in the West 1,400,000 1,200,000 Non-Labor 55% of net growth in personal income in the last decade Millions of 2015 $s 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 Driven by: Baby Boomers Stock market Amenity migration 400,000 200,000 Drives other sectors: construction, health care, retail, etc. 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
There Are Three Types of Non-Labor Income Investment-related Dividends, Interest, Rent 20% of personal income in the West Age-related Social Security, Medicare 8% Hardship-related Medicaid, income maintenance, unemployment compensation 5.7% /economic-development/trends-performance/non-labor/
Non-Labor Income Will Keep Growing In 3 years ¼ will be over 55 years Baby Boomers control 80% of the country s financial assets 75 million are Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964. By 2020, 25% of all workers will be at least 55 years old and every month, more than a quarter-million Americans turn 65. Yet, only 17% of Baby Boomers are currently retired. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-baby-boomers-retirement-means-for-the-u-s-economy/.
How Many Western Counties Dependent on...? Timber % of counties with >10% of labor income from lumber and wood products: 1%
How Many Western Counties Dependent on...? Mining % of counties with >10% of labor income from: 12% all mining 2% oil & gas
How Many Western Counties Dependent on...? Services % of counties with >50% of labor income from service industries: 41%
How Many Western Counties Dependent on...? Non-Labor Income % of counties with >50% of total personal income from non-labor sources: 25%
A Theory of Rural Development
Access to Populations Centers is Critical Access to major population centers drives economic opportunity v Tech workers travel by air 60-400% more than general workforce v Nearly 4 out of 5 air trips are for leisure 4 out of 5 statistic from USTravel.org https://www.ustravel.org/answersheet. Tech worker stat from: Kasarda, J.D., 2000a. Logistics and the rise of aerotropolis. Real Estate Issues 27 (4), 43 49. and Kasarda, J.D., 2000b. Aerotropolis: airport-driven urban development. Cities in the 21st Century. Urban Land Institute, Washington, D.C., pp. 32 41.
Over Time Diverse economy: Agriculture & resource extraction Tourism Transportation infrastructure Access to population centers via airports diversifies the economy beyond resource industries and tourism Agriculture, resource industries, tourism, plus high-tech footloose businesses investment income, retirement, semi-retirement construction, health care, retail, etc. AMENITY MIGRATION
Three Types of Counties in the West METRO Higher wages Less volatility More high-wage services Fastest-growing Younger, More educated CONNECTED (via airports) Over time, perform like METRO RURAL & ISOLATED Lowest wages Most volatility Few high-wage services Slowest-growing Older & aging Less educated
97% of West s population lives in METRO or CONNECTED 3%
Access to Population Centers is Critical The advantage of cities is the social network Diverse perspectives and ideas lead to innovation
Access to Population Centers is Critical For over a century pundits have been predicting that new forms of communication would make urban life irrelevant. To defeat the human need for face-to-face contacts, our technological marvels would need to defeat millions of years of human evolution that has made us into machines for learning from the people next to us.
Access to Population Centers is Critical Human capital is critical Communities compete to attract talent
Conclusions About the Economy The West is mostly urban Rural counties with airports do better Resource dependence is rare Growth mostly in services & non-labor income Human capital is key
Federal Public Lands Are An Economic Asset
The Role of Federal Lands in Rural Development
Only 3% Live in Rural, Isolated Counties These counties are 50% of the land What is the economic contribution of federal lands in non-metro areas?
Non-Metro Counties w/ Federal Lands Grow Faster Growth 1970-2015 County share of federal land in rural western counties: Bottom 25 th percentile Top 25 th percentile 250% 223% 200% 157% 150% 100% 97% 90% 50% 20% 51% Few federal lands Most federal lands 57% 61% 0% Population Employment Personal Income Per Capita Income Counties with share of federal lands in the bottom 25th percentile Counties with share of federal lands in the top 25th percentile Does not imply cause & effect Rural is defined as non-metro. All income figures adjusted for inflation. /public-lands/federal-lands-performance/
What About Protected Federal Lands? National Parks Wilderness National Monuments National Rec. Areas Wild & Scenic Rivers National Wildlife Refuges
What is the Role of Protected Federal Lands? Protected (Nat. Park, Wilderness, N. Monument, etc.) 25% Somewhat protected (Wilderness Study, Roadless) 14% Multiple Use 61% * Protected includes: National Parks and Preserves (NPS), Wilderness (NPS, FWS, FS, BLM), National Conservation Areas (BLM), National Monuments (NPS, FS, BLM), National Recreation Areas (NPS, FS, BLM), National Wild and Scenic Rivers (NPS, FS, BLM), Waterfowl Production Areas (FWS), Wildlife Management Areas (FWS), Research Natural Areas (FS, BLM), Areas of Critical Environmental Concern (BLM), and National Wildlife Refuges (FWS). * Somewhat protected includes: Wilderness Study Areas (NPS, FWS, FS, BLM), Inventoried Roadless Areas (FS). * Multiple use includes Public Domain Lands (BLM), O&C Lands (BLM), National Forests and Grasslands (FS). Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Gap Analysis Program. 2016. Protected Areas Database of the United States (PADUS) version 1.4
Non-Metro Counties w/ Protected Federal Lands Grew Faster 300% Growth 1970-2015 County share of federal land in rural western counties: Bottom 25 th percentile Top 25 th percentile 250% 252% 200% 169% 150% 108% 100% 89% 50% 34% 72% Least protected federal lands Most protected federal lands 54% 73% 0% Population Employment Personal Income Per Capita Income Does not imply cause & effect Rural is defined as non-metro. All income figures adjusted for inflation. /public-lands/federal-lands-performance/
Faster Growth with Protected Federal Lands Average Total Personal Income Growth 1970-2015 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $1,005,575 Non-Metro County share of PROTECTED federal land: Top 25 th percentile $600,000 Bottom 25 th percentile $400,000 $248,136 $547,535 $200,000 $0 $209,502 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Counties with share of protected federal lands in the top 25th percentile
Protected Lands Related to Higher Per Capita Income For each 100,000 acres of Wilderness, National Park, National Monument in a nonmetro county the Per Capita Income increases $4,360 Mean Increase in Per Capita Income $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 $4,360 $2,180 $436 $0 0 acres 10,000 acres 50,000 acres 100,000 acres If counties A & B were identical in every way, but county A had a 50,000 acres of protected public land and county B had none, you would expect income in county A to be on average $2,180 higher per person. Protected Public Lands
Faster Growth After National Monument Designation 17 National Monuments >10,000 acres & designated in 1982 or later Does not imply cause & effect, but proves no decline in economy /dataviz/national-monuments/
National Parks Create Jobs In the WEST In 2016, 104 million visitors spent $6.7 billion creating 104,000 jobs & $3.7 billion in labor income Photo: Shutterstock. In the U.S. 307 million visitors spent $16.9 billion, creating 293,300 jobs & $11.1 billion in labor income https://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/vse.htm and /public-lands/protected-lands/economic-impact-of-national-parks/
Conclusions About Federal Lands The economy of West is diverse and growing Federal lands play a key role: v Attract and retain a talented workforce v Provide water, clean air and other services v Recreation, amenity migration, retirement v Wildlife, biodiversity, climate adaptation v Commodity production
Ray Rasker, Ph.D. 406 570-7044 ray@headwaterseconomics.org
public lands slide show https:// headwaterseconomics.org