THE GREEN SHEET Volume XXVI Issue 10 October 12, 2015 $9.00 NFL KEYS ARE 17-8 ON THE SEASON KEYS ARE 40-26 OVERALL THIS SEASON! 4th Quarter Covers: Houston (-24) 49, SMU 28: This game was tied at 21-21 late in the second quarter but Houston pulled away, eventually leading 49-21 halfway through the fourth quarter to get past the heavy favorite spread. SMU would score in the final four minutes with a 25-yard pass play to earn the underdog cover with the total on the game eclipsed with the final score as well. Oklahoma State (+4½) 33, West Virginia 26: The Mountaineers had superior numbers throughout but wound up playing from behind with a 17-2 deficit at the half. West Virginia climbed within four early in the fourth quarter and then after holding the Cowboys to a short field goal they were able to tie the game with less than three minutes to go, giving backers of the small home favorite a chance in overtime. In the extra session Oklahoma State went first and gambled going for it on 4th and short just outside of the end zone, delivering the go-ahead score as backup quarterback J.W. Walsh broke into the end zone. West Virginia converted a 4th down of its own but on 4th and goal Skyler Howard s final pass fell incomplete. Iowa (-10) 29, Illinois 20: Iowa led by just nine at the half but after breaking a 75-yard run late in the third quarter the Hawkeyes made it a 10-point lead, right even with the closing spread though the number did hit -11 at one point during the week. Illinois answered to get back in the game with a 53-yard pass play to climb within three. With just over three minutes to go Iowa had to settle for a field goal to keep Illinois within onescore but Iowa backers got the miracle they needed as Illinois fumbled on its first play from scrimmage, handing the ball back to Iowa inside the Illinois 30-yard line. Iowa was not able to cash in with a touchdown and settled for another field goal, leaving the underdog still in position to narrowly cover. Pittsburgh (-8) 26, Virginia 19: The Panthers led by 11 entering the fourth quarter and with a safety that lead was extended to 13 points early in the final frame. Virginia forced a punt as Pittsburgh went backwards from good field position and the Cavaliers cashed in a touchdown with less than six minutes on the clock to climb within the spread. Virginia would get the ball back and move into Pittsburgh territory before coming up short but they did enough to earn the narrow underdog cover. Western Michigan (-4½) 41, Central Michigan 39: It appeared that Western Michigan was going to run away with this rivalry game with a 34-16 lead into the third quarter. Central Michigan added a field goal and then climbed back within eight with an early fourth quarter touchdown. Forcing a quick punt the Chippewas found the end zone again just a few minutes later but they could not get the tie with the 2-point conversion failing. On the first play from scrimmage Western Michigan connected for 64-yards to put the Broncos back up by nine. Central Michigan answered getting back within two but the Broncos melted the remainder of the clock, eventually taking a knee from the 1-yard line rather than punching in a touchdown that would have earned the favorite cover. Alabama (-15½) 27, Arkansas 7: Alabama did not look like they would win this game, let alone cover most of the way. Arkansas led 7-3 well into the third quarter before the Tide connected for an 81-yard pass play to take the lead. On the next Arkansas drive the Razorbacks failed attempting a fake punt which Alabama quickly turned into three more points and then after another terrible play from the punt coverage team the Tide were handed a 16-yard field which they converted into a touchdown after a key third down conversion when it looked like Derrick Henry had been stopped as the four-point lead turned into a 20-point deficit in less than 14 minutes of game clock. With less than two minutes remaining on 3rd down Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen avoided a sack and found an open receiver who broke a few tackles and rumbled through traffic into the end zone for a spread-saving cover for the underdog Razorbacks. Get the rest at www.vegasinsider.com. JOE NELSON SELECTIONS www.vegasinsider.com 17-8, 68%, +815 in the NFL this season! Between the Lines... There are 10 teams in the NFL that are +4 or better in turnover margin this season. All 10 of those teams would make the playoffs right now. The only exceptions among the field of 12 teams in the current playoff picture are Cincinnati who is not far behind at +2 and the Colts who incredibly lead the AFC South at 3-2 and are -7 in turnover margin, second worst in the NFL only ahead of the divisional rival Texans. The Colts are even in turnovers in the two games behind Matt Hasselbeck as the -7 is all built on the three games Andrew Luck started and incredibly Luck ranks as the worst quarterback in the league at this point in QBR. The validity of the QBR metric can be debated but the bottom 10 is quite surprising filled with veteran starters and former pro bowlers including Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, and Alex Smith. Longtime backups Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick crack the top 10 as does one of the off-seasons most maligned starters Andy Dalton who only trails Ben Roethlisberger whose great numbers are built on just two and a half games. There is only one quarterback in the league that has started every game that has not thrown an interception and that is Tom Brady. McCown is the only regular starter that has just one interception and in fairness he did miss a game. Denver is 5-0 this season but Peyton Manning already has thrown seven interceptions after averaging just 12 per season the last three seasons for the Broncos. Manning is on pace to have his lowest yards per attempt rate since his rookie season in 1998 yet it has not mattered so far as the Broncos have had one of the league s best defensive teams. With the Cowboys in a free fall Brandon Weeden will shoulder most of the blame but his numbers are right in line with what Tony Romo posted, 72.5% completions compared with 75.0% for Romo. 7.54 yards per attempt compared with 7.65 for Romo. 2:2 touchdown-tointerception ratio compared with 3:2 for Romo. Dallas has four turnovers behind Romo, and they have four in more snaps behind Weeden. There will be talk of switching to Matt Cassel but the decline defensively from the first two weeks is the biggest culprit in the decline. There are three head-to-head matchups between teams in the AP Top 12 this week with LSU and Florida, Michigan and Michigan State, and Texas A&M and Alabama facing off as there will be a major shake-up ahead. The current top 3 teams have schedules that rank 86th, 124th, and 46th and we likely won t find out the true worth of those teams until November. The biggest turnaround story of course has been Michigan behind Jim Harbaugh with a 5-1 mark since the narrow opening loss at Utah. The Wolverines have pitched three straight shutouts with dominant defensive numbers and as a result the line on this week s game in Ann Arbor hosting Michigan State has shifted over 10 points from where it would have been a few weeks ago. Michigan now holds the fourth lowest odds to win the national championship at 10:1 behind Ohio State 13:5, Baylor 11:2, and LSU 8:1. None of those look like good bets as Baylor and LSU haven t touched the meat of their conference schedules yet and lack any wins of substance at this point. Ohio State and Michigan will obviously have to play each other and the Big Ten won t produce two teams in the national playoff. Before the season started the projected line on Ohio State playing at Michigan was -16½, basically the same number as the Buckeyes are laying this week hosting Penn State. Needless to say that will be a much smaller number come the final weekend in November no matter what happens with the Michigan State games for both teams. Iowa is still undefeated at 6-0 on the West side and they may be favored the rest of the way despite getting little respect.best of luck and on to this week s slate Nelly s Sportsline Green Sheet Newsletter - Copyright 2015 All rights reserved. Nelly s Sportsline is a registered trademark.
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS ********************************************************************** RATING 5 OHIO STATE (-17) over Penn State RATING 4 VANDERBILT (+4) over South Carolina RATING 3 PURDUE (+19½) over Wisconsin RATING 2 SYRACUSE (+7½) over Virginia RATING 2 MASSACHUSETTS (-7) over Kent State RATING 1 SAN JOSE STATE (-2) over San Diego State RATING 1 MIAMI, OH (+15½) over Northern Illinois ********************************************************************** ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2015 Auburn (-2) KENTUCKY This line is certainly lower than it was projected before the season started with many looking at Auburn as a SEC and national title contender. These teams last met in 2010 with Auburn barely surviving in Lexington en route to the national title. After the big win over Missouri to move to 3-1, Kentucky nearly gave back a critical win in its bowl prospects needing overtime to beat FCS Eastern Kentucky in its last game. Wins won t be easy to come by the rest of the way with the remaining schedules and this should be an Auburn team that can get back on track with the extra time following the 0-2 start to the SEC campaign for the Tigers. AUBURN BY 7 Western Kentucky (-32½) NORTH TEXAS 6:30 PM After a big division game with Middle Tennessee State the Hilltoppers face a short week to go on the road to face North Texas in Denton. North Texas has actually covered in four of the last five meetings including a one-point loss at Western Kentucky in 2012. It has been a rough season for the Mean Green failing to recapture the success the team had in 2013 and after a 66-7 home loss to FCS Portland State the administration fired Dan McCarney and the two coordinators will lead the team on a co-interim capacity the rest of the way. Given the potential for Western Kentucky to put up big numbers this spread will be justifiably high and rising. Grabbing the points at kickoff will be courageous but that may be the best opportunity. WKU BY 31 STANFORD (-6) Ucla 9:30 PM Stanford has won seven straight meetings between these teams including a 31-10 win last season in Los Angeles. Last season at home the Bruins managed just 262 yards in this matchup in the final regular season game of the season. After the opening week loss Stanford has won four in a row and the Cardinal may be the best remaining hope for the Pac-12. UCLA had last week off to recover from a stunning home loss to Arizona State but the Bruins can still control their destiny in the Pac-12 South though they play at both Utah and USC in late November as this is not the only difficult test remaining. Stanford s big win over USC no longer looks all that impressive and they caught breaks in the other two Pac-12 wins. UCLA BY 3 FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16, 2015 BYU (NL) Cincinnati 7:00 PM Cincinnati has had two weeks to prepare for this game after a big win over Miami in non-conference action, getting to 3-2. BYU has endured one of the most difficult schedules in the nation and this game follows up homecoming on a short week after hosting East Carolina last weekend. BYU seemed to be in control last week before quarterback Tanner Mangum had to leave the game and a dramatic finish ensued with Mangum returning late to lead the game winning drive. This game could feature big numbers with both offenses more than capable and Cincinnati looking like a threat. BYU BY 4 Houston (-17½) TULANE 8:00 PM Houston was a solid 8-5 bowl team last year but they took a home loss against Tulane as a heavy favorite. Turnovers played a role but it was certainly the highlight in a forgettable season for the Wave. Houston delivered a win last Thursday to get some extra time in between back-toback weeknight tests. Houston won by 21 but fell short of the spread in a fairly even statistical game. The high scoring Cougars are starting to get a bit overpriced potentially but Tulane enters this game coming off an ugly offensive performance at Temple with just 110 total yards. HOUSTON BY 21 Boise State (-9½) UTAH STATE 8:00 PM These teams met in the Mountain West championship last season but it was not a competitive game with the Broncos delivering a 50-19 victory. Boise State has had a clear edge in the recent history of this series and after a sluggish start to the season the Broncos appear to have a lot of momentum on both sides of the ball. Both teams had convincing road wins last week as this will be a second straight road game for Boise State on a short week. This will be the biggest home date of the season for the Aggies at least until BYU visits in the season finale in late November. BOISE STATE BY 7 Unlv (-5) FRESNO STATE 9:30 PM Fresno State lost 30-27 in overtime at UNLV last season, one of just two wins for the Rebels on the season. UNLV has impressed in the first half under Tony Sanchez with a competitive start amidst dire projections in the serious rebuild. Last week s game with San Jose State was likely a key game in the bowl hopes for UNLV and the Rebels came up just short in overtime. Last week Fresno State failed miserably in its homecoming date and there aren t many signs of hope for the Bulldogs. UNLV BY 10 SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2015 TOLEDO (-29) Eastern Michigan Coming off homecoming and looking ahead to big games in the coming weeks this could be a flat spot on the schedule for the undefeated Rockets. Toledo beat Eastern Michigan 52-16 last season on the road with an edge in yardage of nearly 300. Toledo overcame early mistakes to win convincingly last week while Eastern Michigan could not survive turnovers in another defeat as another long season may be ahead. The Rockets have a great track record at home and should be trusted to pull away. TOLEDO BY 31 TEMPLE (-21½) Central Florida 6:30 PM This figured to be a big game in the AAC East standings but these teams have had contrasting starts with Temple 5-0 and UCF incredibly 0-6 a year after being one of the co-champions of the conference. The Knights won 34-14 last season and the return of Justin Holman last week provided an early spark but UCF is severely undermanned as there is no sign of better things to come. After losing by 20 in this matchup last season there should be plenty of incentive for the Owls but this may not be the best spot to get an ideal effort with Temple winning big in homecoming last week with a dominant defensive showing and a big marquee Thursday night game with East Carolina ahead next Thursday. TEMPLE BY 17 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-7½) Buffalo Central Michigan has had a run of big games with major conference foes and then two huge division games against MAC West contenders the past two weeks. This could be a flat spot on the schedule against a Buffalo team that was off last week with the Chippewas coming off a narrow loss last week. Buffalo lost by just six hosting Central Michigan last season and Buffalo has provided an encouraging start for the new coaching staff. After competing well in the underdog role for four straight weeks this could be a dangerous spot for Central Michigan as Buffalo s offense has shown enough potential to keep this game interesting. CENTRAL MICHIGAN BY 4 Marshall (-7) FLORIDA ATLANTIC The Thundering Herd has been much less impressive than last season but Marshall continues to skate by. Marshall was out-gained Friday night by 162 yards but five turnovers helped the cause with a late defensive score padding the margin of victory in the 31-10 win at home vs. Southern Miss. Marshall had a bit of trouble with the Owls last season in a modest 35-16 win at home and the Herd will start to be overvalued with a great record that may be undeserved. Florida Atlantic fell apart in the fourth quarter last week with a win snatched away at home against Rice. The Owls have been inconsistent with Jaquez Johnson perhaps not 100 percent with an ankle injury but Marshall is not nearly the team they were last season. MARSHALL BY 4 CONNECTICUT (-3) South Florida The Huskies have shown a greatly improved defense this season but the wins have not yet come consistently despite last week s romp. South Florida has provided a steady defense and a ball control offense to stay competitive. Both teams had surprisingly convincing results last week with Connecticut crushing UCF on the road and South Florida stunning Syracuse with a 45- point effort and great offensive production. Last season South Florida won 17-14 in Tampa with the Huskies held to just 132 yards but Connecticut looks improved on both sides of the ball and could hold serve for homecoming even though they are coming off back-to-back big road games the last two weeks. USF may slip after a great performance. CONNECTICUT BY 7 GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-28½) New Mexico State 5:00 PM After opening the season with an ugly defeat without their quarterback Georgia Southern has won four in a row and they have had two weeks to prepare for this homecoming date. Despite dominance in the Sun Belt last season New Mexico State gave Georgia Southern a tougher game with the Aggies posting more yards in a 36-28 win for the Eagles. After being wiped out by Ole Miss last week value could be with the underdog though this is a third consecutive road game in three weeks. One of the biggest games of the Sun Belt season is next week for the Eagles. GA SO BY 27 MID TENNESSEE ST (-8) Florida International In a big division game last week Middle Tennessee State had a miserable start and wound up on the wrong end of a blowout loss at Western Kentucky. Last season a solid Blue Raiders team was upset at Florida International with a -4 turnover margin being a big factor. The Panthers played well last week to crush UTEP at home but FIU is back on the road this week for the fifth road game in seven weeks. The last trip to Murfreesboro resulted in a 48-0 defeat for the Panthers and this situation should favor the hosts in a redemptive effort though FIU has been competitive. MTSU BY 14
BALL STATE (-16) Georgia State 2:00 PM The Cardinals have lost three in a row but they have been mostly competitive games vs. quality teams falling to Northwestern, Toledo, and Northern Illinois. After some tough losses in a 5-7 2014 campaign Ball State may be headed for the same fate as there are still several difficult games ahead. This should be a good opportunity to get back in the win column against 1-4 Georgia State who is also riding a three-game slide. Georgia State has few S/U wins since joining the FBS level but they have been a good ATS performer in the road underdog role. This is a game Ball State cannot overlook however and the Cardinals can pull away. BALL STATE BY 21 CLEMSON (-16) Boston College After beating Notre Dame in a game they were statistically dominated the Tigers avoided any sort of letdown with a dominant win over Georgia Tech. The Tigers have three games to go before taking on Florida State but they will all be dangerous situations. Boston College has one of the top defenses in the nation but the offense failed to score last week and it is tough to trust the Eagles to make use of some of the big stops the defense can produce. This was a four-point game last season as the Eagles nearly upset Clemson at home and this will actually be homecoming for the Tigers though the squad has hosted bigger games the past two weeks. CLEMSON BY 10 VIRGINIA (-7½) Syracuse Syracuse is still 3-2 even after last week s stunning loss to South Florida. Virginia sits at 1-4 despite mostly competitive efforts through a very difficult schedule. Last week s defeat was the first road game of the season for the Orange and this will be back-to-back weeks away from home but Virginia s lone win this season came narrowly over FCS William & Mary. The shaky run defense numbers for Virginia make the Cavaliers a difficult team to support in the favorite role as Syracuse has a couple of nice wins this season as well as the competitive effort with LSU and a bounce-back may be in order for an Orange team that has more to play for. SYRACUSE BY 3 WISCONSIN (-19½) Purdue The Badgers incredibly threw the ball 50 times last week in a huge departure from the past identity of the program but it was just enough to get a needed win in Lincoln as it looked like Wisconsin would lose for the second straight week in Big Ten play despite a massive yardage edge. Purdue is 1-5 and while three of the losses were games the Boilermakers had good opportunities to win, it is going to be tough to make any sort of positive strides this season and the coaching staff can t feel overly comfortable. Wisconsin has had great success in this series but this homecoming game could be a challenge after two tense finishes the past two weeks. UW BY 10 Iowa (-1) NORTHWESTERN Last week Northwestern s perfect start was exposed in a disastrous performance at Michigan. Iowa s 6-0 start might look even shakier as the Hawkeyes aren t far away from being 3-3. The defense is getting credited with the success but Wisconsin and Illinois both moved the ball well on the Hawkeyes only to have crushing turnovers. C. J. Beathard has just two interceptions but he has completed below 50 percent of his passes in both Big Ten games. After losing badly last week and losing 48-7 in Iowa City last season this should be a focused Wildcats team. NW BY 7 NORTH CAROLINA (-17) Wake Forest It was an incredible win for Wake Forest last week as the Deacons notched five first downs and 109 total yards in the 3-0 result at Boston College. Turnovers helped the cause but Wake Forest is 3-3 and headed towards a respectable season. The Demon Deacons have played well defensively but this will be a challenging matchup as North Carolina has a productive passing game. The Tar Heels have won four in a row following the opening night loss which was a game UNC easily could have won. Off the bye week North Carolina should be ready and if the Tar Heels avoid turnovers they should come up with the win even vs. a growing number. UNC BY 20 Texas Tech (-31) KANSAS The Red Raiders used interceptions to pull away from Iowa State last week, getting back in the win column after back-to-back losses. Next up on the schedule is Oklahoma as this could certainly be an overlooked game. Kansas appears to be headed for a potential winless season as the offense has not been able to keep up in Big XII action and in five games overall the team has been outscored by 132 points. Texas Tech is allowing 40 points per game this season however and laying a big number on the road in this situation looks risky for the Red Raiders. The price to fade Kansas may be growing a bit too high but there are still many takers. TT BY 27 Nevada (-7) WYOMING 3:00 PM The Wolf Pack evened its record at 3-3 with a win over New Mexico at home last week and the schedule the next few weeks should determine whether or not Nevada can return to the postseason. Wyoming has turned into an ATS success despite the 0-6 record and few will be willing to support the underdog in this matchup. Wyoming seems to be providing a good effort with some late scores to help cover the inflated numbers but at home the price might not quite as attractive for the Cowboys. Nevada is rushing for 22 yards per game and it seems likely that the Wolf Pack will find the end zone several times in this matchup. NEVADA BY 10 MISSISSIPPI STATE (-13½) Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech appears to be on track for another strong season and they nearly beat Kansas State in September in the last marquee non-conference opportunity. Louisiana Tech has now covered in five straight games vs. power five teams but this will be a second straight road game for a team with a suspect track record away from home. Mississippi State is 4-2 but wins in the SEC West are going to be tough to come by and this homecoming date won t be taken lightly. Louisiana Tech could have some success running the ball in this matchup and ultimately Mississippi State has not been a team that has often pulled away from decent competition. MISSISSIPPI STATE BY 10 MASSACHUSETTS (-7) Kent State The last true home game on campus for Massachusetts resulted in the only win for the program this season and while the Minutemen are more than capable on offense the defense has surrendered big numbers with 42 points per game allowed. Hopes of improvement for Kent State have not been realized with just over 18 points scored per game though the Flashes already have as many wins as last season. Last week Kent State lost badly at Toledo but competitive efforts vs. Minnesota and Marshall deserve respect as the defense has some potential. Last season Massachusetts won 40-17 as the passing attack could not be stopped and this will be low price at home on a Minutemen squad that has faced a brutally tough schedule. UMASS BY 14 OHIO (-3½) Western Michigan Western Michigan managed to survive hosting Central Michigan last week to win its MAC opener and another big game in the conference is up this week. Ohio is 2-0 in MAC play and looking like an East contender with the showdown with Bowling Green still weeks away. The Bobcats have allowed just 15 points in two conference games but the offensive numbers have been underwhelming. Western Michigan won 42-21 last season in this matchup with a substantial yardage edge and the Broncos have been outstanding in the road underdog role in two plus seasons under P.J. Fleck. OHIO BY 3 Northern Illinois (-15½) MIAMI, OH 1:30 PM The Huskies snapped a three-game slide last week but allowing 41 points vs. Ball State is a concern. Miami has three blowout losses and two competitive games in the 0-5 start but this will be just the second home game of the season. Miami played a stronger Northern Illinois squad tough last season in a 10-point defeat in DeKalb but the Huskies did post over 650 yards in that game. Homecoming is up next on the schedule then the huge game with Toledo as this does not seem likely to be a great spot on the schedule for the Huskies to perform their best. With the winless record the Redhawks may be undervalued as it has been a very tough schedule. NIU BY 7 Air Force (-1½) COLORADO STATE Air Force beat Colorado State in the regular season finale last season 27-24 despite nearly 100 more yards for the Rams. After getting blown out at home against Boise State it may not be easy to get the team up for this opportunity. Air Force rebounded with a win last week though they did not dominate lowly Wyoming. In the last trip to Fort Collins Air Force lost by 45 points but the Falcons have had some ATS success in this series as Mountain West foes. It has been a challenging run of games on the schedule for the Rams who may be better tested heading into this key division game. CSU BY 7 Alabama (-4½) TEXAS A&M While the statistics wound up impressive for Alabama last week they trailed until late in the third quarter as mistakes from Jake Coker could cost this team. Texas A&M is undefeated with a trio of decent wins on the resume and the Aggies have had two weeks to prepare for this season-defining game. Last season The Aggies lost 59-0 in this matchup in Tuscaloosa for an embarrassing showing as this has to be a motivated team. The Tide should have an edge on defense but Kyle Allen and the Aggies may have more potential on offense and this is definitely a situation where Alabama could get caught as the big win over Georgia featured some big breaks. BAMA BY 3 LSU (NL) Florida The Gators have had some success in Baton Rouge and LSU could wind up a bit overvalued in a hyped night game against a Gators team that still leaves many with some doubt and recently suspended its quarterback. Florida has turned in four straight SEC wins over quality teams with great defensive numbers and QB play has not been the key for the Gators. LSU is 3-0 in SEC play but they faced three teams that may wind up towards the bottom of the conference and there have been lackluster performances in nonconference play. Florida has a very tough run defense and LSU has not proven capable of making plays in the passing game and this will be a key revenge spot after a 30-27 LSU win in Gainesville last season. LSU BY 7 MINNESOTA (-1½) Nebraska The Gophers finally turned in a decent offensive performance last week, catching some breaks after a slow start to pull away from Purdue. Nebraska suffered its fourth defeat in the waning moments of a game as it has been a snake-bitten first season for Mike Riley in Lincoln. Minnesota has won narrowly in this matchup the past two seasons and the edge on defense appears to be clearly with the host. This series seems to mean more to the Gophers and the emotions for the Huskers may be shot after last week s blown lead in a huge home game with Wisconsin. MINNESOTA BY 7
GEORGIA (-16) Missouri 6:30 PM Georgia beat Missouri 34-0 last season but it was the Tigers winding up on top of the SEC East. Georgia s season has spiraled downward with back-toback losses and the injury to star running back Nick Chubb. This is homecoming but a formidable Missouri defense will expect a stronger showing. Missouri s offense has really struggled however, already making a switch at quarterback this season and only scoring three points last week to fall to 1-2 in SEC play. Missouri has an incredible ATS record on the road since joining the SEC and despite back-to-back losses for Georgia this line is much higher than it would have been a few weeks ago. GEORGIA BY 10 Oklahoma (-4½) KANSAS STATE Kansas State nearly turned in a major upset last week despite some injury concerns heading into the game with TCU. It was a crushing defeat in a game the Wildcats led most of the way and Kansas State will be a home underdog again this week. Bill Snyder owns a remarkable record at home and in this series and this could be a less than ideal spot for Oklahoma who rose in prominence two weeks ago only to fall out of the national picture with last week s loss to Texas. Following its first loss of the season Oklahoma has failed to cover the next week the last two years but this won t be an easy spot for the Wildcats after back-to-back blown late leads. OU BY 7 GEORGIA TECH (-2½) Pittsburgh 11:30 AM Few teams have had as dramatic of a decline as Georgia Tech with the Yellow Jackets closing the season with wins over Clemson, Georgia, and Mississippi State last season while currently in the midst of a four-game slide. It has been a very tough schedule but the offense has not come close to operating with the same level of success and the defense remains a liability. Pittsburgh could quietly emerge as an ACC Coastal contender, already 2-0 and with winnable road games the next two weeks before several tough home dates to close the season. Last season Georgia Tech rolled over the Panthers 56-28 but it was a misleading final as both teams had great production. This line has been dramatically adjusted. GA TECH BY 4 MIAMI, FL (-6½) Virginia Tech A series that used to have serious national implications now may have postseason implications with neither of these former powers looking like a lock for a bowl game. Miami played Florida State tough last week but the end result remained the same and the Al Golden era in Coral Gables may be in its final weeks. It seems unlikely that Frank Beamer will be forced out but clearly the Hokies are not the program they used to be but the return of quarterback Michael Brewer did provide a spark with a nice win over NC State last Friday. Miami won 30-6 last season and the revenge spot may spark a Virginia Tech squad to a win. VA TECH BY 3 MICHIGAN (-7½) Michigan State The line on this game is certainly in great contrast from where it would have been projected before the season started. Michigan is coming off a historic run with three straight shutouts but the Wolverines have caught some breaks with big plays and favorable scheduling. Michigan State has not been impressive but they are 6-0 with wins vs. five 2014 bowl teams, but the Spartans are incredibly 0-6 ATS. Michigan State has won seven in a row in this rivalry but it is hard to have any confidence in this Spartans team and another electric Big House crowd should be on hand. MICHIGAN BY 13 BAYLOR (-20½) West Virginia The Mountaineers are 0-2 in Big XII play but they certainly weren t overmatched and if the team plays a clean game they will be dangerous. West Virginia held Baylor to by far a season low of only 318 yards last season but the Bears won with turnovers playing a big role. Baylor has put up amazing numbers but this should be the most difficult opposition the team has faced in what has been a very light early season schedule. Since joining the Big XII West Virginia has four S/U wins as an underdog of seven or more points the past three years and with Baylor generating lopsided support on a weekly basis value will be with the dog. BAYLOR BY 14 INDIANA (NL) Rutgers Kyle Flood is set to return this week with the Knights playing commendably hosting Michigan State last week despite the loss. Rutgers beat Indiana 45-23 last season at home and this figures to be a key game in the bowl prospects on both sides. After narrow wins in a shaky 4-0 start Indiana is 0-2 in Big Ten play and the schedule the rest of the way is challenging. Rutgers has heavyweight matchups the next four weeks making this a critical opportunity and the program has delivered great results in the road underdog role in recent years. Indiana may still be without its top quarterback as the Hoosiers could struggle to generate points. INDIANA BY 4 TROY (NL) Idaho Wins figure to be tough to come by for these 1-4 squads with quarterback injuries and Troy had the upper hand last season with a 34-17 victory at Idaho. This is homecoming for the Trojans but they enter this game off a tough physical test at Mississippi State. Idaho was off last week through this is the second straight road game and Moscow is not conveniently located with any of the Sun Belt locations. It is tough to make a case for either of these teams but the defense for Troy has been a little more respectable as Idaho has allowed at least 41 points in every single game. TROY BY 13 EAST CAROLINA (-9½) Tulsa The Pirates are just 3-3 on the season but two of the losses came by just seven points and it has been a formidable schedule. East Carolina won by 17 last season, while falling just short of the spread. This is clearly an improved Tulsa offense that has posted nearly 570 yards per game and is one of the top passing teams in the nation. The defense has suffered with the quick strike attack but the Hurricane has already come through with more wins than last season. East Carolina was a bit fortunate to climb back into its game with BYU late last week and the Pirates seem to have better success when getting points vs. the home favorite role. Tulsa has proven to be a dangerous team that is tough to keep up with. ECU BY 4 SOUTHERN MISS (-7½) Texas San Antonio Even without starting quarterback Blake Bogenschutz Texas San Antonio wound up giving Louisiana Tech a good battle last week. The Roadrunners are 1-5 but this has been a competitive team through a tough schedule. At 3-3 Southern Miss is clearly headed for an improved season but last week s loss will sting. In a big primetime TV opportunity the Golden Eagles dominated the yardage but miscues handed Marshall a lopsided win. While Southern Miss has played close with three quality foes the three wins on the season have all come against lesser competition. This was an ugly game last season with San Antonio winning 12-10 at home and this may be too many points for a Golden Eagles team not used to winning. SO MISS BY 6 Appalachian State (-11½) UL-MONROE The 4-1 Mountaineers are only giving a field goal less than last week against lowly Georgia State, this week in a second straight road game against a more formidable Monroe program. The Warhawks are 1-4 with only a FCS win but they have played Georgia and Alabama, plus one of the Sun Belt contenders Georgia Southern and last week Tulsa in non-conference action. The numbers don t look favorable but Appalachian State has faced three of the worst teams in the nation the past three weeks. Next on the schedule for the Mountaineers is potentially a conference title deciding game with Georgia Southern and this looks like too steep of a price given Todd Berry s track record and the tough early UL-M slate. APP ST BY 7 OLD DOMINION (-8½) Charlotte Charlotte has dropped three in a row following a 2-0 start in the program s first season at the FBS level. The 49ers were blown out against Middle Tennessee State but they actually have out-gained the last two foes despite losing. Turnovers have certainly been an issue but this should be a more manageable matchup. The season for Old Dominion mirrors that of Charlotte with an encouraging 2-0 start soured by three straight losses. The numbers have been ugly for the Monarchs with a tough sophomore season as the FBS level likely ahead for a team that is actually 0-5 ATS. Charlotte has shown some fight and reasonable production as it is tough to lay nearly double-digits with Old Dominion right now. ODU BY 4 SOUTH CAROLINA (-4) Vanderbilt 3:00 PM It has been a difficult two weeks for South Carolina with weather issues moving last week s home date to LSU and while the Gamecocks gave a decent effort it was an impossible situation and the season continues a disappointing trajectory at 2-4. Vanderbilt is just 2-3 but they have covered in all four FBS games and the defense has been impressive. Vanderbilt has covered in three straight meetings despite last winning in this series in 2008 and with two weeks to prepare while the Gamecocks faced great challenges with travel and practice conditions this could be a great opportunity for Derek Mason and his players to get their first SEC win. VANDY BY 7 WASHIINGTON STATE (-8) Oregon State 3:00 PM These teams could not have had more contrasting results last week as Washington State stunned Oregon for a huge win for the program. After losing the opener vs. FCS Portland State the Cougars have won three of four and the loss to Cal was a competitive game. Oregon State was out-gained by nearly 400 yards in Tucson last week as Gary Andersen has had his hands full in his first season in Corvallis. The losses have all come against high quality competition however and the road team has covered in each of the last six meetings in this series. This line is swinging nearly 17 points from last season and chances are last week s results were extreme and these programs may line up pretty closely most weeks. WSU BY 7 UTAH (-7) Arizona State 9:00 PM Arizona State has turned its season around with back-to-back wins in Pac-12 play and the Sun Devils have out-rushed all three conference foes by at least 100 yards. Utah has out-rushed all of its foes in a great 5-0 start but the Utes have caught some breaks and have actually been out-gained in three different games despite the perfect start. While this week s home game is more important in the big picture as a division matchup the hype around last week s home date between the last two undefeated Pac-12 teams will be hard to live up to. The last two meetings between these schools have been incredibly close with ASU winning by one in 2013 and by three in overtime last season but the Sun Devils have had vastly superior numbers in both games and this line is certainly much higher than it would have been before the season started with the rise to national prominence for the Utes. These teams actually rate pretty similarly despite what the polls say. UTAH BY 3
Arizona (-8) COLORADO 8:00 PM After back-to-back ugly defeats Arizona put it all together last week with a dominant win over Oregon State. The Wildcats have shown plenty of concerns on the defensive side of the ball this season however as this may be a good opportunity for a breakthrough win for Colorado. At 3-3 this is a critical juncture for the Buffaloes program that has taken a long time to find its footing. The Buffaloes were productive but ultimately could not keep up in respectable defeats against Oregon and Arizona State and this week Colorado is a bigger home underdog than they were hosting the Ducks. Colorado actually looks like a slightly better defensive team in this matchup which has not often been the case in recent seasons. ARIZONA BY 4 BOWLING GREEN (-11) Akron 2:00 PM The Falcons pulled away from Massachusetts last week to move to 4-2 and 2-0 in the MAC (as well as 2-0 vs. the Big Ten). Bowling Green has averaged 7.0 yards per play this season posting over 600 yards per game but the defense pays the price for the up-tempo offense. Akron has allowed just 3.0 yards per rush this season as the Zips have a formidable front seven especially by MAC standards and after a 0-3 ATS start to the season the Zips are 3-3 both S/U and ATS at the midpoint of the season. This game was nearly even statistically last season but Bowling Green won by 17. The high scoring Falcons might be a bit overpriced. BOWLING GREEN BY 7 Tcu (-20½) IOWA STATE It wasn t overly impressive but TCU found a way to get back in the game and the Horned Frogs are still undefeated. The offensive numbers have been off the charts but the defense has certainly been vulnerable. Iowa State looked like the same old Cyclones last week with a lopsided defeat against Texas Tech. The game was competitive much of the way before interceptions as Iowa State deserves better than the current 2-4 mark. With TCU expecting to play itself into the national playoff the Frogs crushed Iowa State to close the 2014 regular season but the Cyclones covered in the previous two meetings and TCU could look ahead to a bye week before the big tests start in the late October and November. The TCU defense is tough to support. TCU BY 20 FLORIDA STATE (-6½) Louisville Louisville is just 2-3 on the season but this is not a team that should be underestimated. All three losses came by seven or fewer points against quality teams with the narrow defeat against Clemson looking even better at this point. With two weeks to correct some things after shuffling personnel in the first month the Cardinals will be ready for this opportunity. The FSU/Miami rivalry may not be what it used to be but last week s win was big for the Seminoles. The offense has not been overwhelming but the Seminoles clearly still possess top defensive talent. The numbers on defense for Louisville are not far off however and Louisville was one of many teams that suffered a very narrow defeat vs. FSU last season. FSU BY 4 NOTRE DAME (-5) Usc 6:30 PM A USC team that had expectations of being a national title contender is just 3-2 and the Trojans may be without their head coach for the foreseeable future. The team won t have trouble rallying for the Notre Dame game but the on-field product has struggled defensively. The running game has been effective for USC but the offense is built around its quarterback and against another tough defense there could be more mistakes. Notre Dame was not its best last week but Navy made more mistakes as the Irish pulled away in a difficult scheduling spot. The Irish will always be afforded an extra chance on top of the list of one-loss teams by season s end as the playoff hopes are still alive and in a revenge spot with a short home favorite price the Irish should deliver against a potentially toxic situation at USC. ND BY 10 Mississippi (-10½) MEMPHIS This figures to be the biggest home game of the season for a Memphis program that has re-established itself the past two seasons. The Tigers don t have a ton of heft in the 5-0 start but three wins came away from home and the production on offense has been excellent. Memphis is clearly not the same defensive team as last season however and it seems unlikely that this year s game will mirror the 24-3 win for the Rebels last year in this series, with that game actually sitting at just 7-3 through three quarters. Ole Miss has four huge SEC West games following this game as it should mean more to the underdog though this is a low line relative to the recent stature of the Ole Miss program and the talent level gap. OLE MISS BY 13 OHIO STATE (-17) Penn State 7:00 PM The Buckeyes have not covered since the opener but they have out-gained every foe by more than 100 yards despite facing criticism. The Buckeyes have not resembled the squad that bowled through the national playoff but they have won their games and this might be the first matchup in weeks that ups the intensity a bit. Penn State has won five games in a row since losing the opener but the schedule has been soft and the Lions have struggled on offense even against very poor defensive teams. Penn State may have defeated Indiana more impressively than the Buckeyes did but it was a far different scenario. Last season Penn State took Ohio State to overtime but the line is only nominally higher this year in Columbus despite what the Buckeyes did to close out the year. Even with some perceived struggles Ohio State has won four of six games by 18 or more. OSU BY 31 NEW MEXICO (-5) Hawaii The season started with great promise for Hawaii with a huge win over Colorado but with three straight defeats with only 14 points scored the offense is not doing enough to compete. Being.500 would be commendable for New Mexico in most recent seasons but last week s loss to Nevada was a big blow to the postseason hopes for the Lobos. New Mexico has won five in a row in this series though the last meeting was in 2012. Heading back on the road after a disappointing home loss could be a challenge for the Warriors but the Hawaii defense has been respectable and the Lobos may again have trouble in a game they are supposed to win. NEW MEXICO BY 3 SAN JOSE STATE (-2) San Diego State 9:30 PM The Aztecs have won convincingly the past two seasons in this series following three wins in a row for San Jose State prior to that. The Spartans are just 3-3 but this is an improved team and sneaking out last week s narrow win was big step to getting back in the bowl picture. San Diego State was expected to be the top team in the West division of the Mountain West but there have been erratic performances so far this season in a 3-3 start with no wins of real substance so far and a shocking loss at home to South Alabama. San Diego State out-gained its foes by over 110 yards in all three wins and was out-gained by over 150 yards in all three losses as there has been no real doubt of who deserved to win. San Diego State has gained fewer than 5.0 yards per play on offense this season as the passing game has some of the nation s worst numbers and this is a great opportunity for the Spartans at home while not yet facing too steep of a valuation. SJSU BY 10 WASHINGTON (-1) Oregon 10:30 PM The spread on this game has been dramatically shifted from even just a week ago after Washington beat USC and Oregon lost to Washington State. Over the summer this spread would have been at least two touchdowns higher. The Ducks are showing the worth of Marcus Mariota as the quarterback position has been a struggle but the Ducks can still run the ball. Washington was brilliant against the USC passing game last week but the Trojans ran the ball with great success only to lose by being too stubborn to break away from the passing game. With the revelations regarding Steve Sarkisian there may have been more at play in the upset for the Huskies. In the prior Pac-12 clash Washington was out-gained by 222 yards against California while also soundly out-gained in the loss to Boise State in the opening weekend despite the Huskies keeping both of those games close on the scoreboard. Current Oregon quarterback back Jeff Lockie has not performed well but value has swung to the Ducks as Washington has not been favored in this series since 2003. OREGON BY 4 TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13, 2015 ARKANSAS STATE (NL) Louisiana-Lafayette 7:00 PM The Red Wolves play back-to-back Tuesday tilts playing at South Alabama last week. Last season Louisiana-Lafayette won 55-40 in this series though ASU had nearly 600 yards in the game but it was the second straight defeat for the Ragin Cajuns in a matchup of two of the better Sun Belt programs in recent years. Louisiana-Lafayette was doubted by many last week but the Cajuns came through with a home win over Texas State and the trends are strong for both programs in this situation with UL-L great in the road underdog role the last five years and ASU holding perhaps the toughest home field in the Sun Belt. ARKANSAS STATE BY 6 NFL KEY SELECTIONS ********************************************************************** RATING 5 SEATTLE (-6½) over Carolina RATING 4 BUFFALO (+1) over Cincinnati RATING 3 NY JETS (-5) over Washington RATING 2 SAN FRANCISCO (+3) over Baltimore RATING 1 DETROIT (-3) over Chicago ********************************************************************** ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change BYES IN WEEK 6: Dallas, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2015 Atlanta (-3½) NEW ORLEANS (51) 7:25 PM The Falcons have dominated this series ATS historically particularly in New Orleans but they are just 2-9 S/U in the last 11 trips to the Superdome and this will be the biggest road favorite spread since at least 2006. The Saints caught some breaks to stay close in Philadelphia in the first half but ultimately could not keep up, falling to 1-4 and effectively ending most season goals. Atlanta is 5-0 but with another shaky performance last week sneaking by for the fourth time this season trailing in the fourth quarter. In a rivalry division game and with rare home underdog value the Saints might be worth a shot to put it together this week going against the grain as this number could climb by kickoff in the national TV slot. FALCONS BY 2