The Air Travel Value Proposition: Safer, Cheaper, Greener, Quieter and Fast Updated March 13, 2019
U.S. Airline Industry Safety Has Improved Markedly We re Experiencing the Safest Period in Aviation History Fatal Accidents per 10M Aircraft Departures (Part 121 Operations, Scheduled Service) 35 30 25 20 15 1-Year 5-Year All indicators show that air travel in the United States is strong This is occurring while American air travelers are experiencing the highest levels of safety in modern aviation history. FAA Releases Aerospace Forecast (March 16, ) 10 5 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Source: A4A analysis of data from the National Transportation Safety Board (Tables 6 and 12) for U.S. air carriers operating under 14 CFR 121, scheduled service 2
Americans Have Seen Increases in the Average Price of Food, Shelter, Public Transportation and Entertainment Over The Past Two and a Half Decades Food & Public Transit Housing (Existing Home, $000) Movie Tickets Price Index: 1982-84 = 100 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 Food Transit +84% +89% $275 $250 $225 $200 $175 $150 $125 $100 +156% Baseball (MLB) Tickets $40 +272% $30 $20 $10 125 $0 $10 +113% $8 $6 $4 $75 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, National Association of Relators, National Association of Theatre Owners, Team Marketing Report 3
Over the Past 26 Years, the Price of Purchasing Food, Taking the Bus/Train, or Going to the Movies/Ballpark Has Significantly Outpaced the Price of Taking a Trip by Air 400 375 +272% Price Index: = 100 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 Airfare* Food Public Transit MLB Game Movie Ticket +113% +89% +84% 125 100 +26% 75 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Source: A4A, BTS, FRB St. Louis, National Association of Theatre Owners, Team Marketing Report * Domestic round-trip average, including bag and change fees 4
Air Transport Association Advertisement, The Saturday Evening Post, March 22, 1941 Air Travel Is Not Expensive: See for Yourself It Costs Less Than You Think One-way from BOS to LAX in 1941 cost $156.42 and took 15 hours and 15 minutes with up to 12 stops
BOS-LAX Was Not a Simple Journey in the So-Called Golden Age of Air Travel 6
Boston-Los Angeles Air Travel, 76 Years After the Evening Post ~9 Hours Faster, 90% Cheaper (in Real* Terms) Average Round-Trip BOS-LAX Airfare and One-Way Block Time 1941 Actual (15hrs 15mins, 12 stops) $282 1941 Inflation-Adjusted* $4,695 2017 Actual (6hrs 25mins) $473 * Adjusted using 2017 constant dollars from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/cpi/#tables) Source: DOT Data Bank 1B via Diio Mi; Air Travel Is Not Expensive, The Saturday Evening Post (Mar. 22, 1941), p. 59; Campbell-Hill Aviation Group 7
Boston-Los Angeles* Airfare Has Declined Materially Traffic in the Popular Corridor Has Risen Sharply Nearly Doubling From 2000-2017 BOS-LAX* Round-Trip Airfare BOS-LAX* Daily O&D Passengers (Each Way) $800 2,000 $750 $700 Current $ 2017 $ 1,800 $650 $600 1,600 $550 1,400 $500 $450 1,200 $400 $350 1,000 $300 800 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: DOT Data Bank 1B (Passenger Origin-Destination Survey) via Diio Mi * BUR/LAX/LGB; 88% of BOS-LAX passengers flew nonstop in 2017 8
The Share of Flights Arriving Early or on Schedule Has Risen Steadily Over the Past Few Decades, Whereas On-Time 0:15 and 0:30 Have Been Relatively Flat 100 90 80 86.24 79.35 70 60 61.29 50 40 30 0:00 0:15 0:30 20 10 0 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2022 Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics 9
With Each Decade, U.S. Airline Fuel Efficiency Has Improved Up ~125% from 1978 to 2017, ~33%; from 2000 to 2017 Revenue Ton Miles* Flown per Gallon 6.59 5.58 3.83 4.44 1.93 2.51 1960s 1970s 1980s s 2000s 2017 Source: A4A and BTS, for all U.S. passenger and all-cargo airlines * An RTM is a single ton of payload (passengers or cargo) carried one mile in revenue service 10
Commercial Aviation Has Gotten Markedly Quieter From 1975-2017, the Number of U.S. Residents Exposed to Significant Aircraft Noise Fell 94% While Enplanements Rose 341%; 48% from 2000-2017 (Enplanements Rose 26%) 8.0 1,000 Millions of People 1 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Noise-Exposed Population (Left) Passenger Enplanements (Right) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Millions of Passengers 2 - - 1975 1980 1985 1995 2000 2005 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 1. U.S. residents exposed to significant (65 db DNL) noise levels from all aviation operations within U.S. airspace 2. Passengers enplaned on U.S. and foreign flag carriers as captured in the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) 11
The Value Proposition for U.S. Air Travelers Is Alive and Well It s Safer, It s Greener, It s Quieter, It s ~80 Percent On-Time and It s Still a Bargain Index ( = 100) 200 180 160 Fuel Efficiency 140 120 100 On-Time 80 60 Real Fares (incl. Fees) 40 20 0 Noise Safety Risk* 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 * Five-year-moving-average fatal accident rate for U.S. air carriers operating under 14 CFR 121 scheduled service 12