Cattle Market Situation and Outlook: 2015 and Beyond Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State University
2015 Market Setting Global U.S. Economy Agriculture Cattle Industry
Major Beef Market Factors Cattle Inventory and Beef Production Beef Demand International Trade Feed and Input Markets Forage Conditions
$ Per Cwt. 370 MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES 400-500 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly 320 270 220 170 120 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-49A 04/06/15
$ Per Cwt. 260 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES 700-800 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-49 04/06/15
$ Per Cwt. 185 175 165 155 145 135 125 115 105 95 85 SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES Southern Plains, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-52 04/06/15
$ Per Cwt. FED, FEEDER AND CALF PRICES Weekly 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fed 775 lb. Steers 475 lb. Steers OK Combined and 5-MKT Fed
$ Per Cwt. 280 BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice 600-900 Lbs., Carcass, Weekly 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-62 04/06/15
$ Per Cwt. 145 135 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 55 45 SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-35 04/06/15
$ Per Cwt. 135 BONING COW PRICES, Weekly OKC 125 115 105 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$ Per Cwt RETAIL BEEF PRICE Monthly 650 625 600 575 550 525 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 All Fresh Choice Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
CATTLE INVENTORIES
Mil. Head 140 JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual 130 120 2015: 89.8 million head +1.4 % 110 100 90 80 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-01 09/05/14
U.S. Cattle Inventory January 1 2014 2015 % Change 1000 Head 1000 Head All Cattle and Calves 88526 89800 101 Beef Cows 29085.4 29693.1 102 Dairy Cows 9207.6 9306.9 101 Beef Replacements 5551.3 5777.4 104 Dairy Replacements 4548.7 4615.4 101 Feeder Supply 25077 25210 101 Cattle on Feed 13018.3 13093 101 2013 2014 Calf Crop 33730 33900 101
Regional Change in Beef Cow Herd January 1, 2014-2015 +1.4% -1.0% +3.9% +0.8% +3.0% +1.1% -2.4% +6.2% +1.4% U.S. +2.1% +3.1% +0.4% -0.5% +0.8%
Regional Share of Beef Cow Herd January 1, 2015 7.4% 14.6% 2.5% 4.1% 12.3% 1.2% 4.4% 25.5% 7.0% 3.9% 6.1% 7.0% 3.9% U.S. 29.7 million head
Change in Beef Cow Inventory, January 1, 2007-2015 -5.4% U.S. Ave., -9.0 % -25.3% -8.8% +1.7% -5.8% -12.5% +9.0% -5.3% +2.8% -11.5% +8.3, 2011-3.8% -2.2% -7.9% -1.5% -7.3% -1.2, 2011-19.9% -5.7%, 2011-13.6% -8.9% +3.8% -10.7% -6.3% -4.9% -4.1% +3.7% -21.4% -16.6% -1.4% -2.2% -16.4% -7.4% -16.3% +12.7% +0.0% -10.3% -3.6%
Percent Change in Pasture Acreage, 2007-2012 -13.1% -3.0% -1.6% -1.1% +0.2% -5.6% -2.4% +2.6% +0.30% +0.2% U.S. Ave., -3.6 % -5.7% -4.9% -3.8% -7.2% -4.4% -1.4% -31.0% -15.9% -21.2% -2.6% -11.5% -18.9% -9.6% -9.9% -1.4% -20.8% -8.7% -19.0% -23.6% -15.1% -14.8% -16.6% -9.7% -23.5% +5.8%
Beef Cow Inventory by Cycle U.S., January 1 Mil. Head 36 35 34 33 32 31 1990-04 2004-14 2014-15 30 29 28 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Mil. Head 7.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S. 6.5 6.0 +4.1 % 5.5 5.0 4.5 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-38 01/30/15
Thou. Head HEIFER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 200 180 160 140 120 100 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-13 04/03/15
Thou. Head 90 BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 80 70 60 50 40 30 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-34 04/03/15
Heifer % 20% 19% 18% HEIFER RETENTION AND COW CULLING as % of January 1 Cow Herd Average: Heifer % = 17.2 Culling % = 9.7 Culling % 13% 12% 11% 17% 10% 16% 9% 15% 8% 14% 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 7% Heifers Proj Cow Culling Proj Analysis by Derrell Peel Data Source: USDA-NASS
JANUARY 1 BEEF COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Mil. Head 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Analysis by Derrell Peel Data Source: USDA-NASS 24 Dec 2014
Mil. Head JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S. 40 35 30 25 20 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-30 01/30/15
FEED AND FORAGE SITUATION
1000 Tons 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 OKLAHOMA ALL HAY STOCKS December 1 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Other Hay Production Tons Per Beef Cow 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 Oklahoma
Oklahoma Hay Use per Beef Cow 1970-1984 0.87 tons/cow 1,740 lbs 2000-2014 2.11 tons/cow 4,220 lbs Why 2,480 lbs of extra hay needed per cow? Bigger cows Does not account for increased hay use (maybe 20%) Should they be bigger? What size cow is most efficient? Wasted Hay (maybe 40 %) 50% storage and feeding losses Longer Feeding Time (maybe 40 %) 30-40 days extra feeding
Bil. Bushels 16 US ANNUAL CORN PRODUCTION Crop Year 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-07 03/31/15
Bil. Bushels 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 US CORN DISAPPEARANCE AND STOCKS Crop Year 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Feed & Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Exports Stocks Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-12 03/31/15
$ Per Bushel 7.00 NATIONAL AVERAGE CORN PRICE Crop Year, Received by Farmers 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-03 03/31/15
CATTLE SLAUGHTER AND BEEF PRODUCTION
Mil. Head 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.5 CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-10 03/20/15
Mil. Head 2.1 FED CATTLE MARKETINGS US Total, Monthly 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-NASS C-M-11 03/20/15
Mil. Head 2.5 FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-NASS C-N-08 03/20/15
$ Per Cwt 200 175 CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: March 2015 150 125 100 75 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-21 04/03/15
$ Per 1000 lbs 250 AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS Feeding 725 Lb. Steers. S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: March 2015 150 50-50 -150-250 -350 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-22 04/03/15
Thou. Head 725 CATTLE SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 675 625 575 525 475 425 375 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-08 04/03/15
Pounds 840 CATTLE DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly 830 820 810 800 790 780 770 760 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-18A 04/03/15
Pounds 910 900 890 880 870 860 850 840 830 820 810 STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-18 04/03/15
Mil. Pounds 550 525 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 BEEF PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS M-S-18 04/06/15
Mil. Head 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 BEEF PRODUCTION vs. BEEF COW INVENTORY Inventory on January 1, U.S. Bil. Pounds 28 Commercial Beef Production 27 Beef Cow Inventory 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 26 25 24 23 22 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC and Derrell Peel 2015-2017 Forecast
Beef Demand
2014/2015 Meat Production and Consumption Production 2013 2014 2015 2014-2015 Million lbs. Million lbs. Million lbs. Consumption Per Capita Consumption Change 2015 2014-2015 % Retail Lbs. % Beef 25720 24252 24005-1.0 54.8 +0.9 Pork 23187 22845 23918 +4.7 48.8 +5.2 Broilers 37425 38137 40190 +5.4 89.0 +6.7
RETAIL PRICE RATIOS Monthly 3.20 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Beef/Pork Beef/Broiler Pork/Broiler Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Bil. Pounds 6.8 COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION US, Quarterly 6.6 6.4 6.2 6 5.8 5.6 5.4 JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Avg. 2009/13 2014 2015 2016 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-S-01 03/30/15
Cents Per Pound 650 RETAIL BEEF PRICE All Fresh, Monthly 600 550 500 450 400 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS M-P-11 03/24/15
Cents Per Pound 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICES Boneless, Light, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-21 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 750 WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICES Boneless 0x1, Weekly 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 1400 WHOLESALE BEEF FULL TENDER PRICES Musl-On, 5 Pounds and Up, Weekly 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-23 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 350 WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES 18-33 Pounds, Weekly 150 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-22 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 90% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-24 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 170 WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 50% Lean, Weekly 150 130 110 90 70 50 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-25 04/06/15
Mil. Pounds 525 PORK PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS M-S-19 04/06/15
Bil. Pounds 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION US, Quarterly JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Avg. 2009/13 2014 2015 2016 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-S-06 03/30/15
Cents Per Pound 440 RETAIL PORK PRICE Monthly 420 400 380 360 340 320 300 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS M-P-05 03/24/15
Cents Per Pound 160 WHOLESALE HAM PRICES Trimmed Selected, 23-27 Pounds, Weekly 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-27 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 200 WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES ¼ Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly 180 160 140 120 100 80 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-28 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 225 WHOLESALE PORK BELLY PRICES Skin-on, 14-16 Pounds, Weekly 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-29 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 175 WHOLESALE PORK TRIMMING PRICES Fresh, 72% Lean, Weekly 150 125 100 75 50 25 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-30 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 230 WHOLESALE PORK SPARERIB PRICES Trimmed, Light Poly, Weekly 210 190 170 150 130 110 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS M-P-31 04/06/15
Mil. Pounds 500 US PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-30 04/03/15
Bil. Pounds 6.0 US PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-05 03/11/15
Mil. Lbs 1040 BROILER PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly 990 940 890 840 790 740 690 640 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS P-S-20 04/01/15
Bil. Pounds 11.0 RTC BROILER PRODUCTION US, Quarterly 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Avg. 2009/13 2014 2015 2016 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-S-30 03/30/15
Mil. Pounds 700 US BROILER EXPORTS RTC Weight, Monthly 650 600 550 500 450 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-50 04/03/15
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Bil. Pounds US BROILER EXPORTS RTC, Annual 0 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-52 03/11/15
Cents Per Pound 125 BROILER PRICES National Composite, Weekly 115 105 95 85 75 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS P-P-01 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICES Skinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS P-P-02 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 75 WHOLESALE CHICKEN LEG PRICES Northeast, Truckload, Weekly 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS P-P-03 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 225 WHOLESALE CHICKEN WING PRICES Northeast, Truckload, Weekly 200 175 150 125 100 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS P-P-07 04/06/15
Cents Per Pound 205 RETAIL CHICKEN PRICE Broiler Composite, Monthly 200 195 190 185 180 175 170 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS M-P-12 03/24/15
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Mil. Pounds 270 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly 250 230 210 190 170 150 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-16 04/03/15
Mil. Pounds 80 US BEEF EXPORTS TO JAPAN Carcass Weight, Monthly 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-37 04/03/15
Mil. Pounds 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 US BEEF EXPORTS TO CANADA Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Mil. Pounds 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 US BEEF EXPORTS TO MEXICO Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Mil. Pounds 35 US BEEF EXPORTS TO SOUTH KOREA Carcass Weight, Monthly 30 25 20 15 10 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Mil. Pounds 45 US BEEF EXPORTS TO HONG KONG Carcass Weight, Monthly 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2008-12 2013 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
Bil. Pounds 3.0 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-06 03/11/15
Mil. Pounds 325 US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-15 04/03/15
Mil. Pounds 70 US BEEF IMPORTS FROM CANADA Carcass Weight, Monthly 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-26 04/03/15
Bil. Pounds 4.0 US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-12 03/11/15
Thou. Head 2000 CATTLE IMPORTS FROM CANADA AND MEXICO Annual 1500 1000 500 0 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Mexico Canada Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-13 02/06/15
$ Per Cwt. 18.00 STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE Live Animal Basis, Weekly 17.00 16.00 15.00 14.00 13.00 12.00 11.00 10.00 JAN APR JUL OCT Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015 Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-39 04/06/15
$ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual 500 400 300 200 100 0-100 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-66 02/08/15
$ Per Cwt 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 AVERAGE ANNUAL CATTLE PRICES Southern Plains 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 500-600lb Steer Calves 700-800lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-06 02/08/15
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Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price Oklahoma, Combined Auctions 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 450-500 lb. 550-600 lb. 650-700 lb. 750-800
Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb.
Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb.
Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb. 750-800 lb.
Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price, First Quarter 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb. January February March
Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price, Second Quarter 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb. April May June
Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price, Third Quarter 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb. July August September
Heifer Discounts Percent Less Than Steer Price, Fourth Quarter 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 450-500 lb. 500-550 lb. 550-600 lb. 600-650 lb. 650-700 lb. 700-750 lb 750-800 lb. October November December
$ Per Pound 5.80 5.60 14 5.40 5.20 5.00 4.80 4.60 4.40 4.20 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 BEEF PRICE-QUANTITY RELATIONSHIP Annual, Retail Weight, Deflated Choice Retail Price 13 11 12 10 09 08 04 05 03 07 06 91 90 93 92 01 94 02 9596 97 99 00 98 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 Pounds Per Capita 89 88 Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-65 11/06/14
$ Per Pound 5.50 5.30 14 5.10 4.90 4.70 4.50 4.30 4.10 3.90 3.70 3.50 3.30 3.10 BEEF PRICE-QUANTITY RELATIONSHIP Annual, Retail Weight, Deflated All Fresh Retail Price 13 12 11 10 09 08 04 05 91 90 9303 07 06 92 94 01 02 95 97 96 98 99 00 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 Pounds Per Capita 89 Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & USDA-ERS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-65A 11/06/14
Retail and Wholesale Price by Quality Relationships Price Ratio 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.09 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Ch/Sel Ch/All Fresh Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Retail to Wholesale Choice Price Ratio Price Ratio 3.30 3.20 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30 2.20 2.10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Ch Ret/Ch Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Retail to Wholesale Price Ratio Price Ratio 3.30 3.20 3.10 3.00 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30 2.20 2.10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Ch Ret/Ch All Fresh/Sel Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Choice Boxed Beef to Fed Price Ratio Price Ratio 1.90 1.85 1.80 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Fed Price to Feeder Price Ratio Price Ratio 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Feeder to Calf Price Ratio Price Ratio 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Index 1.06 CATTLE SEASONAL PRICE INDEX Oklahoma, 2004-2013 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 7-800 lb Steers 5-600 lb Steers Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC